The overnight session got off to a slow start for US bond markets as Japan was out on holiday.  This is important not only because overnight Treasury trading relies on Tokyo being open for business, but also because Friday's big market mover concerned news from the Bank of Japan.  As such, Japanese markets had been the epicenter of Friday's move, but didn't have much time to trade before going silent for the extended weekend.

Treasuries and European bonds started the European session in slightly stronger territory, but soon began trending toward weaker levels.  Stronger PMI data hasn't helped.  This was a mildly negative factor when it concerned UK PMI overnight, but made for a bigger push when the widely-followed ISM Manufacturing PMI came out stronger than expected at 10am. 

It's worth noting that this is probably one of the biggest reactions to an ISM report in months.  Or at least it seems pretty big at face value.  It's also worth noting that one of my favorite observations about the current era of detachment from economic data is that reports will often look like they mattered if they happen to fall in line with prevailing tradeflow momentum.  Today's ISM report certainly fits that bill as tradeflows were skewed toward weakness from the outset.  The data just made for great "cover" for sellers to hide behind.

10yr yields topped out at 2.38 and Fannie 3.5s bottomed out at 102-05.  They're now at 2.366 and 103-07 respectively.  Quite a few lenders repriced negatively once the losses looked to have run their course.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
99-25 : -0-07
FNMA 3.5
103-07 : -0-05
FNMA 4.0
106-02 : -0-03
Treasuries
2 YR
0.5213 : +0.0239
10 YR
2.3680 : +0.0327
30 YR
3.0860 : +0.0198
Pricing as of 11/3/14 12:12PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:04AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing; Now Affecting Most Lenders
10:12AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Already Increasing After ISM Data; Caveats Though
9:02AM  :  Bond Markets Losing Ground after Modest Overnight Gains

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Jason Anker  :  "confirms - lots of comp plans out there are in trouble"
Jason Anker  :  "•Minimize differences in target prices assigned to MLOs within the same geographic area."
Jason Anker  :  "8:38 news stream "target pricing" is a good read."
Christopher Stevens  :  "The last few updates I have received from investors seem to show that they are moving more towards using FNMA guides and reducing investor specific overlays."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- ISM U.S. MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT INDEX 55.5 IN OCT (CONSENSUS 54.8) VS 54.6 IN SEPT"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- ISM U.S. MANUFACTURING NEW ORDERS INDEX 65.8 IN OCT VS 60.0 IN SEPT"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- ISM U.S. MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY INDEX 59.0 IN OCT (CONSENSUS 56.2) VS 56.6 IN SEPT"
Hugh W. Page  :  "Excellent point. Personally, I think DC gridlock continues no matter the likely result so perhaps not much reaction at all? "
Victor Burek  :  "I would think it isn't going to have a impact...if repubs take over congress, still have a dem president so nothing gets done"
Hugh W. Page  :  "MG any consensus on market implications for election results tomorrow? "