MBS Live: MBS Afternoon Market Summary

Bond market weakness was the theme of the day, and it was pervasive--even if relatively mild--right from the start of the overnight session.  German Bunds were responsible for most any noise in overnight charts and that lasted into the early domestic session.  MBS attempted to hold on to yesterday afternoon's 'ledge' at 101-24 until the Fed's daily buying operation in 10yr Treasuries from 10:15-11am.  A few big block trades were coming through the CME at the same time, apparently adding to weakness.

MBS retreated further into yesterday's range and underperformed Treasuries.  Fed speakers may have been an ancillary consideration into the afternoon, but the real story (not much of a story at all) was the algorithmic trading activity and position-squaring playing out against a low volume backdrop heading into the notoriously algo-heavy 2pm time frame.  This simply means that computer-driven trading coincided with traders squaring positions ahead of a big day tomorrow, and it made for a slightly brisker bit of selling than we'd seen until that point.  It was ultimately reined in by 4pm and the trajectory of losses fell back in line with the trends implied by morning hours.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
97-09 : -0-12
FNMA 3.5
101-18 : -0-11
FNMA 4.0
104-27 : -0-09
FNMA 4.5
107-05 : -0-07
GNMA 3.0
98-13 : -0-07
GNMA 3.5
102-20 : -0-10
GNMA 4.0
105-22 : -0-09
GNMA 4.5
107-28 : -0-05
FHLMC 3.0
96-27 : -0-12
FHLMC 3.5
101-08 : -0-11
FHLMC 4.0
104-15 : -0-09
FHLMC 4.5
106-28 : -0-06
Pricing as of 4:05 PM EST
Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this afternoon.

2:02PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Technical Break in both Treasuries and MBS; Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
Negative reprices are incrementally more likely among lenders that haven't already repriced negatively today. After holding on to a ledge at 101-19, Fannie 3.5s just ticked down to 101-18. Further losses could be on the way according to 10yr Treasuries' technical break of 2.70--a ceiling that had been holding until moments ago. 10's are already up over 2.71.
11:01AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Reprice Risk Already Increasing; MBS at Session Lows
Fannie 3.5s are now down 7 ticks on the day at 101-21. This is 5 ticks away from many lenders' rate sheet print times and thus increases negative reprice risk. At this point, we're not yet looking at a "mass reprice" situation, but we could see a few unless prices happen to bounce quickly and convincingly. 10's are up to 2.691.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.

john murphy  :  "@rogermoore use electronic delivery with a three day sunset and dont offer a lock until doc's are returned signed. good e-signing wont allow missed sig's in your package so its all complete"
Matthew Graham  :  "yeah, I think the broad-scale "orbiting" around 2.671 (Since JUNE, mind you!) is indicative of a massive-scale uncertainty, so at least you're not alone there)."
Matthew Graham  :  "So a lot of the decision is a gamble based on that data, as well as the FOMC Minutes. "
Tom Bartlett  :  "I live in the if unsure lock school these days! so I will recomend locking.Thanks..see you helped just giving me that!"
Matthew Graham  :  "Unfortunately, Retail Sales weakness tomorrow morning could easily send rates lower."
Matthew Graham  :  "At this point, a break below 2.671 has been rejected. (or 2.665 100 day or 2.670 50 day), so you probably want to go with that."
Tom Bartlett  :  "so really is a roll of the dice which way we go this week?"
Matthew Graham  :  "and I'm not just saying that. 2.671 is the 5-yr moving average in 10s."
Matthew Graham  :  "I think markets are too"
Tom Bartlett  :  "I am right on the fence"
Matt Hodges  :  "defensive for me, tb"
Matthew Graham  :  "very clever TB, trying to preempt the gutflop response. So just to be clear, you're asking for a crystal ball as to what rates will do tomorrow and beyond?"
Tom Bartlett  :  "Hi MG, What is your lock don't lock mentality today? gutflop not withstanding?"
Roger Moore  :  "do any of you have a good tactic/technique for getting back initial loan docs from clients? i'd love to hear if you do. "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- YELLEN REPEATS THAT FED BOND PURCHASES NOT ON PRE-SET COURSE, FED AWARE OF POTENTIAL RISKS POSED BY BOND BUYING - LETTER "
Andy Pada  :  ""strong majority" - interesting choice of words."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED'S YELLEN, IN WRITTEN ANSWER TO U.S. LAWMAKER, SAYS "STRONG MAJORITY" OF FOMC BELIEVES ASSET PURCHASES HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE "

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