MBS Live: MBS Afternoon Market Summary

Let's be realistic about markets--bond markets anyway.  Nothing happened this week.  Of course "nothing" sounds a bit dramatic, so let's qualify that just a bit.  Earnings news contributed to fluctuations stocks, but not nearly as much as Europe, illiquidity, and pre-FOMC/NFP positioning.  For instance, the first two days of the week were docile by any standard, both for stocks and bonds.  Wednesday exploded by comparison (but only an explosion relative to the quiet that preceded it).  There seems to be some confusion as to what caused that movement, with the 10AM home sales data getting the credit for Wednesday morning's movement.  Feel free to lean on the following factoid as evidence that this is bogus: 10yr yields had already risen by 9bps by 9am!  2.5049 to 2.5937 to be exact, between 5pm on Tuesday and 9am Wednesday.  The home sales data wouldn't hit for another hour.  Even then, it was a non-event.  Markets moved more sharply following the 5yr auction and the release of the prepared remarks for the Obama speech.  Even that movement was a simple "cash out / cash in" that was washed out of both stocks and bonds in about an hour.  Shocking.

The lion's share of the day's movement ended up being a two-parter that started in Europe with a substantial sell-off in German Bunds.  It's not that we suddenly care about Europe too terribly much again, but any time Bunds sell off 15bps in one session, US Treasuries are going to feel it.  It's hard to say how much of the response in US markets wasn't simply an unwinding of complacency put in place by the low-volume drifting of the previous five sessions.  Stepping back and looking at the bigger picture, we see the only thing that really happened was an ongoing range-trade between 2.46 and 2.62.  Yields had drifted closer to the low end of that range, had occasion to move higher and simply moved back to the other side.  It didn't look certain that the 2.62 ground would hold, but after the week's auction supply needs were taken care of, yields settled back down under 2.6 and went on to an absolutely uneventful session today, locked in the narrowest range of the week, very close to the mid-point of the longer term range. 

Everything points to next week's big events.  Some build-up might be seen for FOMC, but the employment data is the bigger deal (barring a surprise from the Fed).  Whereas we can't be sure that the FOMC Announcement will be a meaningful event, we can be all but guaranteed that NFP will be.  Furthermore, ADP Wednesday morning continues to be a bit more relevant than it used to before the late 2012 methodology change.  A big beat or miss there could get snowball's rolling.  Ultimately, a break of either side of the range would suggest follow through to 2.75 or 2.36. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
97-00 : +0-04
FNMA 3.5
100-28 : +0-03
FNMA 4.0
103-26 : -0-02
FNMA 4.5
105-29 : +0-00
GNMA 3.0
98-03 : +0-06
GNMA 3.5
101-31 : +0-02
GNMA 4.0
104-12 : -0-01
GNMA 4.5
106-02 : -0-03
FHLMC 3.0
96-21 : +0-03
FHLMC 3.5
100-19 : +0-03
FHLMC 4.0
103-20 : -0-01
FHLMC 4.5
105-11 : +0-02
Pricing as of 4:05 PM EST
Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this afternoon.

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Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.

Tim Y  :  "make sure that you have the right borrower on there, sometimes it was on or the other, or another borrower that is not going to be on this app. Had one where the wife assumed it after the husband died. Also, if the address has changed that might be a cause for the look up tool not to work. "
Ted Rood  :  "Look up tool is best option, but have to have exact address as shown on statement."
Bryce Schetselaar  :  "This one doesn't show...That is a good idea a lot of the time. Don't really want him to call servicer and have them steal the deal"
Chris Kopec  :  "Between loan lookup and running DU/LP, you should be able to find out. Might be a portfolio loan if it is with some of the bigger guys."
Ted Rood  :  "Credit reports often show loans as either Fannie or Freddie, but that doesn't necessarily mean HARP eligible."
Adam Karno  :  "Bryce have the customer call the servicer and ask"
Ted Rood  :  "WA Mu was big on option arms and those weren't agency products/harp eligible. Look up tool is usually pretty good."
Bryce Schetselaar  :  "What is the likelihood of a 30 year fixed from Jan 2008 (originated with Washington Mutual) being a fannie or freddie? It is in a large complex and we have not had luck with the loan lookup tools."
Andy Pada  :  "I was just thinking that however bad this punch in the gut has been, we've been through worse and we know how to get to the other side. That being said, let's go green."
Andy Pada  :  "probably misquoting qm"
paul.d.camenzind  :  "I just had a builder call me and said he heard that conforming guidelines were changing 1st of the year to lower maximum dti to 30%. That was news to me, anybody else hear anything like that?"
Andy Pada  :  "Do you guys remember how brutal Q1 2011 originations was?"
Hugh W. Page  :  "That's what I thought . . .he probably doesn't want to come back and try and navigate the unraveling of QE "
Scott Rieke  :  "Yellen definitely isn't someone "new" - uber-dove. Summers would be interesting given his anit-QE comments. "
Victor Burek  :  "but seems Obama wants someone new"
Victor Burek  :  "I have never heard him say he wasn't coming back"
Hugh W. Page  :  "Did the Bernank even announce he is not returning or is it just assumed based on POTUS remarks?"
Victor Burek  :  "Yellen is by far the favorite, according to odds makers"
Rob Clark  :  "CNBC said a few minutes ago the Dems are pushing Obama towards Yellen"
John Toepfer  :  "Hope it's not Summers"
Scott Rieke  :  "Please not Larry"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- NO ANNOUNCEMENT ABOUT FED CHAIR IS IMMINENT, AND LIKELY WON'T COME UNTIL THE FALL - SENIOR WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- OBAMA HAS NOT MADE A DECISION ABOUT CANDIDATES FOR FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMANSHIP - SENIOR WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL "
Bert Swyers  :  "stocks doing bad"

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