MBS Live: MBS Morning Market Summary

The morning has been intense in terms of the "unseen hand" causing massive market movements.  I talk a lot about "tradeflows and technicals" moving markets in the absence of scheduled data or major headlines, and today was an otherworldly example of just that.  This was written up in quite a bit more detail on the MBS Live dashboard, but the update didn't make the cut-off time to be included in the regularly scheduled Mid-Day recap.  Normally, that would mean you'd have to wait for the RECAP at the end of the day, but we're including it early today as it seems like the move in MBS needs some explanation.  Enjoy:

MBS LIVE UPDATE  10:42AM

Global Currency Implosion Slings MBS Through The Roof. Positive Reprices Galore

For a day that looked as if it was merely "to be endured" for weary bond markets ahead of NFP, it's turned out to be the most significant rally of the week, nearly matching May 29th's barn-burner. To make matters more interesting, there is no singular event to "blame" for the positivity (and as far as we've seen/heard it's increasingly likely to end up being chalked up to team effort of factors)

Here's a list of some of the potential factors with brief discussion to follow:

- Dollar/Yen reached a critical support zone in the 98.8 zone, and has been trading in the same sort of 'stair-step" pattern all year without meaningfully "stepping back down." 98.8 was the line of demarcation suggesting the first such step down could be in process. Once that technical zone was breached, USD/JPY launched into it's biggest one-day move in several months.

- Eurodollars followed the move (both currencies strengthening vs the dollar). Euros had their own reasons for strengthening (Draghi press conference further supports the notion that the EU won't print money. Euro likes...) but those same reasons suggest tough roads ahead with deleveraging and economic weakness.

- This putting together of 2 and 2, was a slow realization for market watchers as big trades started to pepper the US Treasury complex, which was already in "buy first, ask questions later" snowball mode.

- The snowball got a major push from 2.06/2.07 being broken in 10yr yields, a significant entry point to an even more significant technical zone stretching down to 2.04, and ultimately 2.0, even. The latter was effectively 'tested' today as 10's hit 1.999 for a second or two, but 2.04 looks to be the modal floor. Technicians will take note of yield levels at 3pm to assess longer term trend changes, but would ultimately need tomorrow's action to confirm them anyway.

- MBS Joined in the snowball!!! We've been talking incessantly about the disturbingly wider spreads in MBS and how the cart can lead the horse when MBS are weak enough (convexity selling in MBS dragging down prices in Treasuries), and now the REVERSE is happening today. We've discussed 2.10% in 10yr yields as one line in the sand, below which MBS have tended to look more optimistic. So the good times were already rolling for mortgage markets even before the bigger swing heading into the noon hour.

- Once the bigger swing hit, "more of a good thing" for MBS turned out to be just that, and the rally kept pace astonishingly well (in fact, this is one of the only instances where you'll see little old mortgage markets outperform a global risk reversal snowball's effect on Treasuries. Mark your journals!

- Speaking of global risk reversal snowballs... Yeah... that. It's not fun or glamorous, nor does it make for sexy media headlines the way a big piece of data does, but these snowballs can do this. The longer they continue without great explanations, the bigger they can get, further confounding attempts to explain them. To this end, the words in this morning's opening update, (published 2 hours before the crazy swings) are now unbelievably relevant:

"There's no remaining significant economic data today, leaving tradeflows (jockeying for position and BASING TRADING DECISIONS OFF THE OBSERVATION OF OTHER TRADES) and technicals (TRADING BASED PURELY ON TRADING LEVELS, WITHOUT REGARD FOR ANY FUNDAMENTAL DATA) to guide the price action for the rest of the day."

Sometimes the clearly delineated scapegoat for these kinds of moves just doesn't exist. I know that's a tremendously unsatisfying answer in what seems like a world of mathematical decisions and correlations, but it happens. Think of it like a murder case with overwhelming circumstantial evidence yet no murder weapon. Most of the circumstantial evidence is listed above, but the case isn't closed until tomorrow's witness is called to the stand at 8:30am (meaning that NFP could either confirm everything that just happened, or reinforce the 2.04-2.07 pivot zone in 10's. Looks like we'll be up in the air until then, but not without tons and tons of positive reprices to consider beforehand).

 

(PLEASE NOTE: the pricing snapshot below is woefully outdated as it's automatically generated between 11:00 and 11:10am each day.  On days like today, when insane market spikes happen around the 11:30am time frame during which I normally collate and publish this commentary, it's delayed due to the activity on the MBS Live dashboard.  The delay isn't mean to entice you toward our paid service--strictly an issue of our resources being fully allocated to MBS Live when days like today happen.  If the timeliness of the prices and analysis are super important to you, it probably makes sense to check out the paid service anyway).

  
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
100-10 : -0-01
FNMA 3.5
103-05 : +0-01
FNMA 4.0
104-31 : +0-00
FNMA 4.5
106-06 : -0-03
GNMA 3.0
101-23 : -0-01
GNMA 3.5
104-22 : +0-02
GNMA 4.0
105-26 : -0-03
GNMA 4.5
106-12 : -0-05
FHLMC 3.0
99-30 : -0-02
FHLMC 3.5
102-29 : +0-01
FHLMC 4.0
104-25 : +0-00
FHLMC 4.5
105-12 : -0-04
Pricing as of 11:04 AM EST
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this morning.

10:04AM  :  Freddie PMMS: 30yr Fixed Rates up to 3.91 Percent
McLEAN, VA -- Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), showing fixed mortgage rates climbing higher for the fifth consecutive week on concerns the Federal Reserve may slow its bond purchases amid a strengthening economy. This marks the first time the average 15-year fixed-rate mortgage has gone above 3 percent since the week of May 24th of last year.

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.91 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending June 6, 2013, up from last week when it averaged 3.81 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.67 percent.
9:40AM  :  Weaker During Draghi Press Conference, Bouncing Back Now
After a mostly docile overnight session, Treasury yields were near the lowest levels of their pre-NFP range around 6:15am. The ECB rate decision (unchanged) and Jobless Claims at 8:30am (within 1k of consensus) didn't have much of an impact, though bond markets were already trending higher in yield from pre-open lows.

This resul Several Draghi comments put pressure on Treasuries and MBS, but the most notable were those that spoke to the ECB's "ample discussion" of non-standard measures, despite a "rich discussion on incoming data." Draghi drove the implied point home later in the conference, saying the ECB is more conservative than other central banks, and ultimately drove it home even more soundly with the following wire:

RTRS- DRAGHI - VASTLY PREVAILING CONSENSUS TODAY WAS THAT CHANGED WERE NOT SUFFICIENTLY ONE-DIRECTIONAL TO WARRANT ACTION

By that time however, the bulk of the selling was already behind us. Treasury futures volumes peaked around 8:50 after the initial market-moving comments. Fannie 3.0s hit lows of 100-02 and are back up to 100-06. Fannie 3.5s hit 102-30 and are back up to 103-01. 10's are moving lower in yield at the 9:30am equities open and just broke back below 2.096 and S&Ps are opening a few ticks lower after another exceptionally flat overnight session.

There's no remaining significant economic data today, leaving tradeflows (jockeying for position and basing trading decisions off the observation of other trades) and technicals (trading based purely on trading levels, without regard for any fundamental data) to guide the price action for the rest of the day.

As noted in this morning's 'Day Ahead,," equities and Treasuries have been relatively well-connected this week, potentially offering another source of guidance for bond markets (in fact, to that end, stocks have bounced higher in the time it's taken to type the last few sentences and 10yr yields are following the move, back up over 2.10).

From a strategic sense, the less we gain before rate sheets are out, the better, as it would make for a more unified reprice risk landscape.
8:36AM  :  ECON: Jobless Claims Right in Line With Forecast
- Claims 346k vs 345k forecast
- Minimal revision to last week (354k to 357k)
- Continued Claims 2.952m vs 2.975m forecast

- Market Reaction: slightly choppy, but Draghi press conference is going on at the same time. No directional moves for MBS or Treasuries yet.

In the week ending May 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 354,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 344,000. The 4-week moving average was 347,250, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average of 340,500. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending May 18, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 18 was 2,986,000, an increase of 63,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,923,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,986,500, a decrease of 11,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,998,000.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.

Scott Valins  :  "lol 3.91"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. 30-YR FIXED RATE MORTGAGES 3.91 JUNE 6 WEEK VS 3.81 PCT PRIOR WEEK-FREDDIE MAC "
Matthew Graham  :  "just remember, we've seen much bigger beats than what 225k would be (much bigger misses too, of course)."
Matthew Graham  :  "in a market that's spiked so bearishly, and with the consensus being close to 200k (and at the risk of oversimplifying an assessment of the internals in favor of the headline), 200k seems like a dangerous line in the sand. I think even an on-the-screws print is dangerous if revisions hold or move higher"
FPH  :  "in my opinion we need under 100 to help us. anything in range will be more of the same trening for us, and a number 225+ and we spiral out of control"
Roger Moore  :  "hey mg, what number should job # should we fear tomorrow? simply hitting the estimate, or is there another number above and beyond that? "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- DRAGHI - VASTLY PREVAILING CONSENSUS TODAY WAS THAT CHANGED WERE NOT SUFFICIENTLY ONE-DIRECTIONAL TO WARRANT ACTION "
Christopher Stevens  :  "Wells pricing about 1/8th worse than yesterday putting it in line with Tuesday's last rate sheet. "
Matt Hodges  :  "energy to be released tomorrow"
AQ  :  "speaking more directly re: market. MG has noted consolidation in charts. Energy certainly building for bigger directional move. "
AQ  :  "well...Fannie Mae publishes new buyup/buydown grids Monday. Should have profound effect on pricing given the update they made to late delivery grids."
Christopher Stevens  :  "biggest issue we have is competing with some local lenders and credit unions that keep rates/pricing low in this environment to gain business while the larger aggregators have priced up sheets. That is tough to explain to LO's in my shop. They wonder how ABC credit union can offer 3.875% while we are at 4.125%."
AQ  :  "wholesalers are prob most aggressive right now. you guys seeing that in pricing?"
AQ  :  "lots of margin in rate sheets"
Christopher Stevens  :  "AQ- I would guess the hedgers you are talking to are going crazy right now. How in the heck do you hedge this kind of movement. "
Matthew Graham  :  "in addition to the 'price pressure' comment, the other notable one was "ample discussion on nonstandard measures""
Andy Pada  :  "What did draghi say?"
Victor Burek  :  "no, survey for nfp was taken weeks ago"
Ray Younger  :  "can we read into the jobless claim number being in line will lead to the NFP number not being in our favor"
Matthew Carver  :  "for now, i'm sure the wrong color tie on squak will trigger another sell off. "
Matthew Graham  :  "negative rates paid to depositors in ECB MH"
Matthew Graham  :  "I'd also keep in mind that in terms of benchmarks, we sort of began the day at the lower end of the pre-NFP range, so there's some technical resistance adding to the bounce perhaps: http://screencast.com/t/DBEC1rqS (Not a super crazy swing higher in this context)"
Matt Hodges  :  "is he talking negative interest rates?"
Matthew Graham  :  "I think Draghi presser is the mover at the moment Ray. If it was Claims, it likely would have seen more of an immediate response (not to mention that it was right on the screws). "
Ray Younger  :  "as soon as the jobless claims hit. we sold off"
Josh Stika  :  "I don't see the line from RTRS that would cause a sell off - what could I be missing?"
Ray Younger  :  "looks like we are giving back what was gained yesterday"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- DRAGHI - TECHNICALLY READY FOR NEGATIVE DEPOSIT RATES, BUT NO REASON TO ACT RIGHT NOW "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - DRAGHI - DISCUSSED NEGATIVE DEPOSIT FACILITY "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- DRAGHI - HAD AMPLE DISCUSSION OF NONSTANDARD MEASURES "
Matthew Graham  :  "coincided with mini-spike, but given the past month+ of trading, that isn't much of a drop off. 10's bottomed out at 6am and have been trending higher since."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - DRAGHI -SEE SUBDUED UNDERLYING PRICE PRESSURE OVER MEDIUM TERM "
Oliver S. Orlicki  :  "sudden drop off reason?"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US CONTINUED CLAIMS FELL TO 2.952 MLN (CONS. 2.975 MLN) MAY 25 WEEK FROM 3.004 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 2.986 MLN) "
Christopher Stevens  :  "looks like more consolidation leading to tmrw"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG ROSE TO 352,500 JUNE 1 WEEK FROM 348,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 347,250) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 346,000 JUNE 1 WEEK (CONSENSUS 345,000) FROM 357,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 354,000) "

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