Two Mondays ago, bond markets bounced at the exact same levels that followed the weak Jobs report on April 5th.  It became increasingly clear through the course of that week (4/15-4/19) that we were entering into some manner of sideways slide--not eager to extend already solid recent improvements, but clearly also not eager to head back into March's trading range.  To whatever extent that "sideways-ness" was clear, it was always stood it's best chance to be broken by the current week of data and events.  The following chart presents two ways to view the recent range in 10yr Treasuries: purely flat with a few "lead-offs" or slightly bullishly tilted (teal lines).  

There's significant economic data every day this week and several potential watershed moments.  The big-ticket events start hitting on Wednesday with ADP Payrolls (only inasmuch as it has the potential to suggest reevaluating expectations for the official Employment Situation Report on Friday--the biggest ticket of the week).  ISM Non-Manufacturing data follows later that morning, but is outdone by 2pm's release of the Fed's latest policy announcement.  This is the shorter, more precise text used to officially communicate the current policy (as opposed to FOMC "Minutes" which are longer, less formal, and slightly more open to interpretation).  Unlike the last FOMC Announcement, this one is not accompanied by forecasts from FOMC Members or the press conference from the chairperson.  Unless it differs meaningfully from the previous iteration, there's a good chance it won't have much impact, but the impact can be significant if it makes an overt change or a less-than-subtle hint that one is coming.

The pace of events doesn't let up on Thursday as the European Central Bank (ECB) is out with their analogous policy announcement.  A majority of economists polled by Reuters believe the ECB will cut rates for the first time in nearly a year.  It's not a given that this will happen, nor that it would be by the 0.50% amount predicted.  The divergent possibilities leave the door open for more volatility in bond markets following the announcement.  At the same time that ECB President Draghi begins his Press Conference 45 minutes after the announcement, so too will US Economic data begin coming in for the day with Jobless Claims as well as Productivity and Costs.

Friday morning remains the focal point of the week with Non-Farm Payrolls at 8:30am, though markets will have had plenty of opportunity to move even before then.  Take the last instance of an NFP week for example (it's on the chart above too!).  10yr yields began breaking below that 1.823% line on Wednesday and extended gains on Thursday only to have Friday's job's report motivate the biggest gains of the week.  That was a classic example of a pre-NFP "lead-off," and such things are especially possible when the rest of the week is fraught with other meaningful data.