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MBS RECAP: Reminded of Volatility via Friday Cliff-Diving

MBS MID-DAY: Third Time is NOT the Charm for Bond Markets

The Day Ahead: Winding Down and Range Finding; 2 Cool Charts

MBS RECAP: Purposeful Rally Helps Define Pre-FOMC Range

MBS MID-DAY: Bounce Back/Rally Gains Traction

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Home Sales Would Rise 15-20 Percent With 720 FICO - NAR

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Ginnie I, II, or...III: Combining the Programs and the Advantages...

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Senator Demands Change on Short Sale Credit Score Effects; Rates Snap Back To Recent Highs; Market Volatility Ahead of the Fed

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Originator Hedging Picks Up at MBS Price Highs. Reprices Reported

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by AQ on October 21 2010, 12:08 PM

Rate sheet influential MBS have recently benefited from a supportive supply/demand environment in the TBA marketplace. Those favorable conditions dried up today on profit taking originator hedging. Reprices Reported....
ALERT: MBS at Session Lows. Reprices for Worse Likely

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by AQ on October 25 2010, 1:50 PM

Rate sheet influential MBS prices have fallen over 10 ticks in the last five minutes. REPRICES FOR THE WORSE ARE HIGHLY LIKELY...
Rates Test Intraday Rally Resistance After Auction. Reprices Reported

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by Matthew Graham on December 08 2010, 2:34 PM

As we approach 2pm, it is becoming painfully obvious just how much of today's weakness was and was not a factor of an auction concession......
Primary/Secondary Loan Pricing Spread Tightens. MBS Running Into Resistance

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by AQ on November 04 2010, 12:11 PM

I have some good news to share. Lenders aren't holding back bps. The majors are going for it. Loan pricing is QEII-tastic today.......
Positional Pressure Preventing Recovery Rally

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by AQ on November 18 2010, 10:07 AM

We've been talking a lot about bearish technical biases in the bond market lately. Besides needing to overcome that rally resistance we've also been up against positional pressures as well, specifically in the options market where traders have pushed...
JOBS DATA: NFP +39K, Private Payrolls +50K, UE Rate at 9.8%, Hourly Earnings +$0.01

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by AQ on December 03 2010, 8:30 AM

The November Employment Situation Report has been released. Contrary to the October report, November data was extremely disappointing . ...
Two-Headed Labor Market Presents Problem for Bond Investors

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by AQ on January 07 2011, 5:28 PM

Clearly the Household Survey paints a much different picture of reality than the Establishment Survey. Wall Street tends to focus on the growth implied by the Establishment Survey. Main Street experiences the reality of the Household Survey. Does it feel...
ALERT: More Reprices Reported Ahead of Class A Roll

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by AQ on October 08 2010, 3:37 PM

If you haven't gotten a reprice for the worse yet, you will be soon. If you have gotten a reprice for the worse, I don't rule out another round of rebate reductions. ...
The Day Ahead: Rates Creep Even Higher Before 10-Year Note Auction

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by Patrick McGee on December 08 2010, 9:06 AM

Benchmark interest rates continued to move higher overnight in response to news that a compromise had been achieved on both the extension of Bush era tax cuts and unemployment benefits. Fundamentally this agreement is seen boosting GDP growth and potentially...
FOMC Statement Essentially Unchanged. QEII Goes on as Planned

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by AQ on December 14 2010, 2:15 PM

The FOMC Statement has been released. As expected there was no change in the Fed's tone or outlook. The December statement is essentially the same as the November statement with exception to a couple of slight tweaks in the opening paragraph that provide...
Consumer Sentiment Improves. Mortgage Rate Tension Remains High

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by AQ on November 12 2010, 10:10 AM

Our tension level remains high this morning as tactical day traders squeeze out every last drop of short seller profit in the belly of the curve all the way through the ultra long end. Spec long bond shorts and bear steepeners vs. 30s aren't expected...
Bond Market Gets Weaker After Auction. Multiple Reprices Reported

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by Matthew Graham on December 07 2010, 3:05 PM

The weak 3yr note auction at 1pm did little to help an already negative bias in the bond market. Ok, so it did the opposit of 'help.' It's not that the 3yr auction was alarming in and of itself, but in the context of recent auctions, today's...
Rate Movers: Snowballing, Stock Selling, Curve Spreads

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by AQ on August 04 2011, 3:04 PM

Short covering has played a pivotal role in the surprisingly strong rates rally we've enjoyed over the past 5 sessions. "Short covering" is when a bearish trader closes a position that was opened with the intention of capitalizing on lower prices/higher...
Might the Federal Reserve Purchase More Agency MBS?

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by AQ on November 01 2010, 1:53 PM

Plain and Simple: YES. If open market asset purchases push benchmark yields and mortgage rates lower, to the point where loan refinancing increases enough to rapidly reduce the Fed's MBS portfolio holdings, then they might need to buy more agency MBS...
MBS RECAP: Greek Default Imminent?

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July 25 2011, 4:19 PM

The ill effects of having political headlines account for a large part of trading guidance today is evident on the charts. Granted, the headlines out of Greece were of a different sort than the domestic debt debate, but headlines are headlines. Given...

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