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MBS Day Ahead: Here's The New Short-Term Trend to Watch

MBS RECAP: Too Strong to Give Up Hope. Too Weak to Rest Easy

MBS Day Ahead: Battle For The Bounce (And Fibonacci Strikes Back...

MBS RECAP: Nice Bounce! Now What?

MBS RECAP: Video Time Corresponds With Market Drama (Today's...

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Too Strong to Give Up Hope. Too Weak to Rest Easy; Construction Spending Doubles Expectations

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TUESDAY MORNING .............................................. 2/5/08

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by Matthew Graham on February 05 2008, 4:55 PM

Today is a good morning for mortgage rates. In economic data: 1. Week over week and year over year change of store sales were 1.7% and 1.6% respectively. 2. The ISM business activity level index came in at 41.9 amazingly lower than the expectation of...
Monday Morning ................................ 2/4/08

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by Matthew Graham on February 04 2008, 4:43 PM

This is a rare day concerning Mortgage Backed Securities. We have stocks down on the day currently, in conjunction with a slightly weaker than expected factory order report which came in at 2.3% down from estimates of 2.3-2.5, depending on who you asked...
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 11:51 PST

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by Matthew Graham on February 01 2008, 7:51 PM

Additional reprices now becoming possible as MBS prices are trending below another floor of support on the day. (that's reprices for the worse by they way)
Bonds Falling - Potential Reprice

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by Matthew Graham on February 01 2008, 6:27 PM

Dropped quickly in recent minutes. Potential Reprice for the worse.
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 9:03 PST

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by Matthew Graham on February 01 2008, 5:03 PM

With respect to previous update about selling in bonds, as of about five minutes ago, prices failed to break through the "floor of support" the 5.0% coupon created earlier in the day. This is good news. In late breaking news, Ford's profit release was...
moderate selling in bonds

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by Matthew Graham on February 01 2008, 4:49 PM

we just had about a 4/32nds swing in 5 minutes. no reprices for the worse yet, but consider locking if you like today's rates.
MIXED DATA ..................................2/1/08

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by Matthew Graham on February 01 2008, 3:30 PM

The important headlines: 1. Overall the Employment Situation Report was weaker than expected with a decrease in non-farm payrolls of 17,000 compared to an anticipated gain of 58,000. This is a sign of a contracting economy, which is generally good for...
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 1:51 PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 9:51 PM

Bonds Skyrocketing on "flight to quality" buying. Almost back to session opening highs. 50bps gain in the 5.0% on the day and about 35bps on the 5.5%. Too late today for reprices (for most lenders), so look for this to be baked into tomorrow's pie, which...
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 10:35PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 6:42 PM

MBS's seem to be under some selling pressure now. 5.0 = +6/32nds 5.5 = +3/32nds If we hold or lose ground here, potential reprice for the worse.
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 10:06 PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 6:05 PM

Some lenders are repricing for the worse possibly a preemptive move against bad news for Bond Insurers hitting the news currently. Whatever the case, bonds are holding steady, to slightly improved. 5.0% = +12/32 5.5% = +8/32 (as always, these are total...
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 9:09 PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 5:08 PM

Dow has turned positive to the tune of about 90 points currently. Although treasury yields are up, MBS’s are holding moderate gains. At 5-8/32nds improvement still.
THE BEARS FIRE BACK ..............................1/31/08

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 4:34 PM

The 5.0% coupon has gained 8/32 nds on the day currently The 5.5% coupon has gained 4/32 nds As we discussed yesterday, the market reaction to the FOMC announcement was tepid and Thursday and Friday’s data could give us more direction. It’s interesting...
1/31/08 ................................. Morning Report Numbers

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 2:19 PM

More to come shortly, but wanted to get you the early data from this morning ASAP. Personal Income and Outlays Report (a measure of consumer participation) Both readings were .1% higher than explanations, but the caveat is that outlays, the more important...
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 1:57 PM PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 9:56 PM

Bond pit is getting ready to close at its best levels of the day. 5.5 held at even for the day 5.0 currently knocking on the door to break through to even as well. This is off lows of the day 13/32nd's lower. Some lenders repriced too quickly when we...
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 1:01 PM PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 9:01 PM

Don't be fooled by mid-day reprices you might see coming across. These are laggards from data at 12:06. Bonds are at their best levels of the day so far, but still no expected rate improvement. Lenders that repriced too quickly an hour ago may reprice...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.22%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.58%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.40%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-24 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 110-20 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 111-13 (-0-07)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0%
|
Refinance Index 0%
|
Purchase Index 0%

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