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  • What about mid to long term?

    by Matthew Graham on March 14 2008, 5:32 PM
    The caveat on this: Consider this speculative opinion. In other words, don't make lock/float decisions based on this commentary. I'm just sharing my take on Bernanke's recent speech. I'm liking our prospects for mid to long term rates because from an...
  • Too Shakey!

    by Matthew Graham on March 14 2008, 3:36 PM
    Floating can still pay off for risk takers, but locking now would take this volatility risk out of the market. For 3 seconds, we ticked below 100-00. If we dip there again, price worsening is likely. Moreover, unless we tick up appreciably, additional...
  • Dipped Below 100-05

    by Matthew Graham on March 14 2008, 3:09 PM
    Albeit briefly, the price curve on the 5.5% dipped blow 100-05 for about 25 seconds, we're back up at 100-07 now. Wow! It's volatile! Be ABSOLUTELY READY FOR ANYTHING! That means lock sheets should be in hand. Again, if your lender hasn't released pricing...
  • WILD!

    by Matthew Graham on March 14 2008, 2:45 PM
    Volatility is out of control in MBS's. Just after 9AM, the 5.5% coupon almost touched 101-00!!!!! It is now down to 100-06/07 So, if your lender already released rates, and especially if your rate sheet hit before 9:30 AM but after 9AM, you probably won...
  • Alert 1

    by Matthew Graham on March 14 2008, 1:23 PM
    I hate to be getting back to you so soon, but we just "took a dip." Don't be concerned yet, we're still far better than yesterday. The 5.5% line just hit 100-04. This is likely due to early morning "profit takers" selling their MBS holdings. I'm setting...
  • Good Day, Sunshine!

    by Matthew Graham on March 14 2008, 12:46 PM
    It doesn't matter where you live, today is a sunny day for mortgage pricing. Oh that CPI! We had hoped that inflation would read lower than expected, and it did! February's Consumer Price Index, the economy's broadest measure of inflation dropped.3% with...
  • Trend Holding True

    by Matthew Graham on March 13 2008, 7:00 PM
    Just like yesterday our trend is holding true into the afternoon. But yesterday we had a bit of a droppoff. Today, the graphs below show the price curve bouncing off 99-16. It hit it again recently and is continuing the same bouncing trend. This suggests...
  • Dipped Below, But Will We Bounce?

    by Matthew Graham on March 13 2008, 6:11 PM
    Yes, we dipped below 99-16 briefly, but there is a chance we'll still get a bounce off the line. Some lenders will have repriced. Locking is the conservative and safe play, but if you trust the trend, take a look at the graph. This is the price curve...
  • Lock Alert

    by Matthew Graham on March 13 2008, 5:26 PM
    Nearing the floor for today at 99-16. Locking is the conservative play considering the stock upswing. I'll update you ASAP if we tick back up.
  • Stay Floaty

    by Matthew Graham on March 13 2008, 4:46 PM
    We bounced nicely of the last down swing. Graph to follow.
  • At or near lows

    by Matthew Graham on March 13 2008, 3:25 PM
    Just a heads up as we've fallen about 4/32nds rather recently. We're at or near lows with the 5.5% FNMA MBS at 99-17. There seems to be some resistance to drop below 99-16 so far this morning. If we break that floor, locking short term would be advised...
  • Retail Sales Disappoint But MBS Lose Ground

    by Matthew Graham on March 13 2008, 1:39 PM
    "Profit Takers" Profit takers meaning holders of MBS who saw the price of their investment skyrocket for 2 days straight who thought late yesterday and early this morning would be a good time to sell their investments due to inflation concerns, oil prices...
  • Today's Trend Channel

    by Matthew Graham on March 12 2008, 7:32 PM
    Notice this graph of today's MBS prices on the FNMA 30 year 5.5% Coupon. The trend channel indicates that prices could crest the 100-00 mark in the next few hours or by tomorrow morning. This will have a huge benefit for rates. But notice how well the...
  • Updated Pricing (Yes, it's good!)

    by Matthew Graham on March 12 2008, 6:22 PM
    MBS Price Data Price Change FNMA 5.0 97-20 +1-14 FNMA 5.5 99-29 +1-04 FNMA 6.0 101-20 +0-24 FNMA 6.5 103-04 +0-19
  • Raising Our Expectation

    by Matthew Graham on March 12 2008, 5:18 PM
    I'm moving the "alert floor" from 11AM's price to 12:50PM's price. Bonds ticked up by 8/32nds in that time and are up another 6/32nds since 12:50PM. Trend continues to tick higher... Reprices you've probably already seen, but there may be more.
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More From MND

Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 2.87%
  • |
  • 15 Yr FRM 2.50%
  • |
  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.72%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 107-16 (-0-01)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 109-12 (0-06)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 110-12 (0-01)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps -0.81%
  • |
  • Refinance Index -0.44%
  • |
  • Purchase Index -1.54%