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MBS RECAP: Calm Week Ends on an Even Calmer Note

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Should Give Their Next Technical Signal...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Push Back Against AM Weakness, But Risks Remain

MBS Day Ahead: Defensive Shift is a Cause For Concern; Yields...

MBS Day Ahead: Does Inauguration Day Matter For The Bond Market...

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Friday 8/29 ... All about income and PCE...

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by Matthew Graham on August 29 2008, 12:58 PM

Income fell by .7% yet spending managed to increase .2% The Core PCE deflator rose .3%, which is higher than we wanted to see from an inflation-hawk standpoint, but will hopefully be subject to the same discounting that CPI and PPI saw earlier this month...
Thursday 8/28 - Everyone Likes Graphs

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 9:03 PM

Proud Warriors! Hear Me! Long have we been adrift together on uncertain seas. Many perilous struggles have we endured. We've lost many brothers and sisters to the madness that beckoned them to "lock" the chains of their own undoing. But now! Now virtuous...
Thursday 8/28 - Now some good news...

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 5:40 PM

Looks like "mikey likes it." 6.0 MBS up to 101-01 which is 2 ticks in the black for the day. Float Club!
No Panic Yet (Thursday 8/28)

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 5:09 PM

We're not falling any further at the moment. holding at 100-29. No reprice risk currently, but stay closely tuned.
ALERT - Treasury Auction Causing Market Movement

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 5:07 PM

We've peeled off 3 ticks rather quickly bringing us to 100-27.
Thursday 8/29 - 6.0 at 100-29

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 3:33 PM

MBS certainly would like to be rising today despite the GDP data, but with stocks now up 191.42 in the dow, the pressure is on bonds. Again, treasuries are "taking the bullet" for MBS as the 10 year is still down 10 ticks, 5 year down 8 ticks while MBS...
Thursday 8/28 ... Stock strength may pressure bonds

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 2:40 PM

With the dow up 100 points so far, we are seeing 2-3 ticks of pressure on MBS. The 6.0 is currently still fantastic at 100-29. If Stocks continue a rally, we might see some more pressure. Whatever the case, MBS are certainly more popular than laggard...
Thursday 8/28 - Keep the faith....

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 1:29 PM

Actually positive 1 tick on the day at 101-00
Thursday 8/28 - GDP story continued...

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 12:37 PM

Here are those previously alluded-to mitigating factors: 1. Deriving consensus estimates for Q2 GDP was a bit of a shot in the dark due to unknown impact of stimulus checks 2. Factoring in stimulus plus a strong export situation, we knew this would be...
GDP CRUSHES CONSENSUS BUT CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS AT 4 YR HIGH

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 12:34 PM

more to follow... MBS Probably won't be too happy, but there are mitigating factors as well, so don't panic. whatever the case, we'll keep you posted up to the minute
FNMA Breaking News (industry relevant, but not a market mover at the moment)

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2008, 8:21 PM

Fannie CEO announced 3 person management restructuring. No reaction in MBS or stock price yet and unclear if we will see any reaction at all.
Wednesday 8/27 - Knock Knock Knockin

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2008, 6:07 PM

Heaven's door only a tick and a half away. 6.0's currently at 100-30+. Nice trend channel upwards today. MBS remain unphased by a hundred point gain in the dow. Spreads are widening out a bit, but we're still getting more buyers than sellers. We'll be...
Wednesday 8/27 - We're All Very Proud

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2008, 4:33 PM

Our little MBS is all grown up! Look at him our there! Holding his own even as stocks rally with the Dow around +100. Plus, he's not giving into the peer pressure from UST's who have declined ever so slightly day over day. Currently the 6.0 is up 2 ticks...
Wednesday 8/27 - Let Me Take You Down (in yield, that is)

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2008, 2:22 PM

currently up a plus in 6.0's at 100-26. MBS ninjas report some of the positive price action we are seeing today is the result of low volume, making today's gains potentially not as exciting as they otherwise would be. Still, I wouldn't go so far as to...
Wednesday 8/27 - As One Might NOT Expect

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2008, 12:41 PM

We normally would not expect to see MBS hold steady when Durable Goods comes in at 1.3 versus a negative 0.4 expectation, but that is what is happening. The bond markets' "pause" on what we'd normally assume would be a sharper sell-off is gaining confirmation...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 2.80%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.30%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.30%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-16 (-0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 110-15 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 111-08 (-0-01)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 1.06%
|
Refinance Index 1.40%
|
Purchase Index 1.81%

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