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Compelled to Tell You

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by Matthew Graham on June 17 2008, 2:12 PM

Someone must have overheard our celebration and decided to put us in our place. The 6.0% coupon just dropped 3/32nds in 3 minutes. Ok, everyone go back to being morose and aloof. Maybe we can trick them into pushing the curve up again!.
Tuesday 6/17/08 ..... And A Good Morning To You As Well!

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by Matthew Graham on June 17 2008, 1:08 PM

In A Word: All of the sudden, those "cool kids" mentioned yesterday are not looking quite as cool. Indeed, the weather is sunny enough, the slip 'n slide is set up, and we might actually be able to stay outside and play today regardless of the influence...
You Knew It Was Too Good To Last Right?

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by Matthew Graham on June 16 2008, 6:49 PM

Looks like the miniature rally was unable to sustain itself and we're back to -1/32nd on the day for the 6.0% Coupon. (graph)
bouncing back a bit now

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by Matthew Graham on June 16 2008, 4:16 PM
Still Being Held Down

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by Matthew Graham on June 16 2008, 3:32 PM

more evidence for locking. The curve can't seem to gain any upward momentum so far today.
Monday 6/16/08 ......... Traders Reluctantly Buying Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on June 16 2008, 12:46 PM

In A Word: "Clean up your room and you can go play..." When we were kids, this usually did get us to clean our rooms, but it couldn't prevent most of us to do so with an almost super-human level of reluctance. Well, today's economic data has asked bond...
Jason Steals The Scene At The End Of The Day

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2008, 6:58 PM

Doesn't the bad guy always win in horror movies? We should have known. As opposed to just being an "eager barber" (see previous post), perhaps he took a little more than hair off the top of the nice price curve we had going! Ouch! (if you didn't get reprices...
Bad haircut

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2008, 6:31 PM

The barber has taken "a little too much off the top" and I wouldn't be comfortable any longer. Only way to contain him is to "lock him up." (that was an extended metaphor to tell you mbs are dropping enough that reprices are likely) (now with GRAPHS!...
Peeling off the ceiling just a bit

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2008, 5:31 PM

it's been a calm ride at the highs of the day with little volume or volatility. We just pared 3/32nds in the 6.0 coupon, so infer what you will. If you have an itchy trigger finger on the lock button, this may be your cue. (now with the power of graphs...
Friday 6/13/08 ....... Jason Voorhees at Bay

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2008, 1:39 PM

In A Word: Remember Jason? The Hockey Mask Guy from Friday the 13th? Considering we're hovering near unchanged, it's safe to say he's at bay for now (and maybe he's at "the bay," as opposed to his normal haunt, the lake, which is good since we're at the...
Continuing to be nauseating

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by Matthew Graham on June 12 2008, 5:01 PM

As you can see, it's down, down, down, past the psychological barrier at 100-00. reprices for the worse are becoming a near certainty.
Thursday 6/12/08 ...... Can't Catch A Break

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by Matthew Graham on June 12 2008, 12:56 PM

In A Word: Sure we had a bit of a rebound yesterday despite volatility, but check out what is happening this morning: The Why: A very nice one/two punch from economic data this morning in the form of worse than expected inflation and significanty stronger...
Jane! Get me off this crazy thing!

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by Matthew Graham on June 11 2008, 5:33 PM

We'll just let the graph do the talking: up we go! down we go! where it goes next, nobody knows! reprices for the worse potential, nay, probable, for lenders that did not already reprice on the first "tank."
Bouncing back a bit

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by Matthew Graham on June 11 2008, 4:54 PM

Now we're only 7/32nds off the highs as opposed to the 10/32nds from minutes earlier. This decreases reprice risk substantially for those lenders that have not already repriced. The following graph gives you an idea of how nicely prices rose this morning...
The MBS market giveth

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by Matthew Graham on June 11 2008, 4:23 PM

and the MBS market taketh away. We're off over 10/32nds from the highs of the morning. Reprices for the worse are potential.

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Purchase mortgage applications rose for the 6 th straight week, driving the Mortgage Bankers Association's Market Composite Index back into positive territory...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.05%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.70%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.29%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-01 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-13 (0-03)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 110-05 (-0-02)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 2.67%
|
Refinance Index -0.23%
|
Purchase Index 8.61%

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