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The Day Ahead: Recent Volatility Might be Logical

MBS RECAP: Another Hopeful Morning Dashed by Defensive Reality

MBS MID-DAY: Morning Gains Give Way to Mid-Day Rout (again)

The Week Ahead: No Scheduled Data Before Wednesday's Important...

MBS RECAP: Reminded of Volatility via Friday Cliff-Diving

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Housing Recovery and Price Appreciation to Continue; Mortgage Rates Near 12-mo Highs; MBA Suggests New Approach To Risk-Sharing

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MBS MID-DAY: Volatile Morning, Disconnected From Data

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April 23 2013, 11:05 AM

- Sales 417k vs 420k consensus, 411k previously - SFR sales +1.5 pct vs -7.6 pct previously - Northeast +20.6, South +19.4, Midwest +12.1, West -20.9 Sales of new single-family houses in March 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 417,000...
The Day Ahead: Home Prices, New Home Sales, Auction Cycle Begins

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by Matthew Graham on April 22 2013, 11:15 PM

April has been a pleasant month for MBS so far. Eleven out of the 16 trading days have been positive. Only 3 of the 5 down days have been more than incidentally so, and even then, were more of a consolidation following the rally that opened the month...
MBS RECAP: Cruising Altitude Sustained After AM Turbulence

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April 22 2013, 4:05 PM

After making a relatively convincing run weaker in price between 10am and Noon, MBS leveled off and held a tight sideways range around 104-07 in Fannie 3.0s--right in line with Friday's highs and a well-traveled inflection point of late. It held up...
MBS MID-DAY: Off Highs, Holding Gains For Now

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April 22 2013, 11:05 AM

- 4.92 mln annual rate, vs 5.01 mln consensus - Last month revised from 4.98 mln to 4.95 mln - Inventory of homes for sale 1.93 mln / 4.7 months - 21 percent of existing sales were distressed vs 25 percent previously; lowest on record Lawrence Yun , NAR...
The Week Ahead: Light Calendar, Treasury Auctions, EU Headline Potential

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by Matthew Graham on April 22 2013, 8:03 AM

Several weeks of relative silence out of the EU may soon be coming to an end. Certainly, market moving European news hasn't been completely absent these past 3 weeks--simply far less dramatic. Leading up to and following April's Employment Situation Report...
MBS RECAP: Ending Week At Monday Morning Levels

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April 19 2013, 4:05 PM

MBS Live : MBS Afternoon Market Summary The day and the week had potential. As far as today was concerned, it was yet another chance to test the incessantly firm resistance that's capped the entire week of gains. Technical resistance was the theme of...
MBS MID-DAY: Consolidating Inside Yesterday's Range

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April 19 2013, 11:05 AM

Treasuries were treated to an uncommon level of volatility early in the Asian session overnight. 10yr yields didn't go crazy, by any means, but the quick 2bp rise to 1.71 that came just 2 hours into the session is more typical of the European hours...
The Day Ahead: Empty Calendar, Full of Potential

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by Matthew Graham on April 19 2013, 7:13 AM

Although Friday's economic calendar is utterly empty, we're getting closer and closer to a time when decisions must be made as far as the trading momentum that leads up to month-end, FOMC and NFP one week after next. Friday's like today have seen their...
MBS RECAP: More Volatility, Less Progress

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April 18 2013, 4:05 PM

As we'd hoped, it has indeed been the stock lever that has had the biggest impact on bond markets into the afternoon, despite the post-5yr-TIPS auction gyrations. The former has just shown its hand as equities break to new lows on the day. Bond markets...
MBS MID-DAY: Back On Top After Opening Lower; Stock Lever Connected

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April 18 2013, 11:05 AM

- Headline index +1.3 vs +3.0 consensus, +2.0 prev. - 6-month outlook 19.5 vs 42.5 prev. - New Orders -1.0 vs +0.5 prev. - Employment -6.8 vs +2.7 prev, lowest since Nov. - Market Reaction: moderately positive for bond markets and negative for stocks...
The Day Ahead: Bigger Movement on the Horizon

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by Matthew Graham on April 18 2013, 8:05 AM

Bond markets may be getting ready to make a bigger movement in the near future for several technical and fundamental reasons. From a technical standpoint, 10yr yields suggest that bond markets have hemmed themselves in within the confines of recent pivot...
MBS RECAP: Volatile Session Leaves Bond Markets Mid-Range

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April 17 2013, 4:06 PM

The afternoon has been more volatile than average for bond markets and MBS are quickly getting back to defense mode after being on offense heading into 1pm. At that time, Fannie 3.0s were hitting 104-11 and are now back down to 104-05. With the most recently...
MBS MID-DAY: Contained By Range, Holding Near Highs

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April 17 2013, 11:05 AM

10yr yields topped out just over 1.72 after a quick trip higher heading into the 9:30am cash open for stocks. Stocks sold out of the gate and Treasuries followed. Though one degree of separation removed, MBS followed as well, moving higher in price. As...
The Day Ahead: Empty Calendar Unlikely to Inform Crossroads

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by Matthew Graham on April 17 2013, 7:33 AM

For both MBS and Treasuries, the sense of "resistance " has been building for several sessions--" technical resistance" to be specific. This terminology is specifically chosen because of the recurring price (and yield) levels that have informed trading...
MBS RECAP: Moderately Weaker Day, Guarded Against More

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April 16 2013, 4:05 PM

Without much volume or fanfare, bond markets simply turned the corner just after 11am, and are heading back toward opening levels. For MBS, this merely amounts to a 3 tick drop from the highs of the day at 104-07. Fannie 3.0s are now down to 104-04 and...

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