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MBS Week Ahead: 2 Ways to Look at Current Trends

MBS RECAP: Bonds Ease Into Weekend in Solid Shape

MBS Day Ahead: Here's How 'Priced-In' Rate Cuts Are

MBS RECAP: Friendly Fed Wins Out Over Econ Data Bounce

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Consider New Resistance as Week Winds Down...

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Document, Non-QM, MI Products; Vendor News; Rates Steady

Mortgage Rates Fight to Remain at Week's Best Levels

CoreLogic Estimates the Loan Volume Enabled by GSE Patch

Credit, Broker, Accounting Products; Events and Training; Cap...

Mortgage Rates Lowest This Week Despite Stronger Economic Data

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Published: 7/19/2019

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MBS Day Ahead: Unexpected Headlines Result in Bond Market "Lead-Off"

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by Matthew Graham on June 18 2019, 9:34 AM

In the day just past, bonds did absolutely nothing new or interesting. Yields continued to trade in a narrow, sideways range--one that has persisted for more than 2 weeks. The ostensible catalyst for a breakout was (and still IS, in some ways) tomorrow's...
MBS Day Ahead: Housing Data and The Fed

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by Matthew Graham on June 17 2019, 9:25 AM

In the week just past, the bond market began by threatening to bounce toward higher rates after an impressive, 5-week rally to the lowest levels since 2017. The first sign of support appeared without any provocation other than "relatively higher...
MBS RECAP: Modest Reactions to Econ Data as Bonds Wait For Bigger News

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by Matthew Graham on June 14 2019, 6:27 PM

Somehow, the bond market managed to end the week at 2.084% (10yr yield) which is exactly where it ended last week. In all my years of market-watching, I've never seen a sharp weekly (like the one we just had in late May) at the end of a sharp multi...
MBS Day Ahead: Retail Sales Takes a Swing Before Next Week's Fed

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by Matthew Graham on June 14 2019, 8:31 AM

In the day just past, bonds managed to add modestly but meaningfully to a 2.5-day rally that's acted to keep them in a consolidation pattern. After I write the words "consolidation pattern," they're typically followed by the words "ahead...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Look Determined to Consolidate

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2019, 5:04 PM

Monday and Tuesday were a bit nerve-racking as it looked like yields might break back above the pre-Mexico-tariff-threat gap in the 10yr yield chart. But bonds bounced well before that happened and have been trending calmly lower ever since. In fact,...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Continue Fighting For Consolidation Ahead of Fed

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2019, 9:23 AM

In the day just past, bonds built on the Tuesday's strength following a correction to the weakest levels in more than a week. 10yr yields briefly made it as low as 2.11% before consolidating in a fairly perfect triangle/pennant for the rest of the...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Shake Off Panic, Helped by Weak Data and Strong Auctions

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by Matthew Graham on June 12 2019, 4:28 PM

Yesterday morning saw bonds weaken enough to cause some small measure of panic among bond bulls. Said bulls had been nodding their heads all last week as they were finally seeing yields that made sense in the context of long-lasting trade wars, tepid...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Remain Open to Ideas as MBS Roll

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by Matthew Graham on June 12 2019, 9:20 AM

In the day just past, bonds initially gave the impression that they were continuing to correct toward higher yields after weekend news of a trade "deal" with Mexico. Markets weren't as interested in the "deal" part (because nothing...
MBS Day Ahead: Rates Increasingly Threatening Lift-Off

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by Matthew Graham on June 11 2019, 8:30 AM

In the day just past, bonds traded to their highest yields in more than a week--something that hasn't been too common in the past few months. In fact, yesterday was the most prominent example since mid-April. The culprit was a deescalation of trade...
MBS RECAP: Mexico Tariff De-escalation Hits Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on June 10 2019, 5:01 PM

Bad news for bonds today as Trump shelved the threat of tariffs on Mexico that helped fuel the sharpest leg of the recent rally 2 weeks ago. Perhaps more significant than this particular tariff news is the fact that Trump is showing markets he's willing...
MBS Week Ahead: When Will The Good Times Be Over?

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by Matthew Graham on June 10 2019, 8:58 AM

In the week just past, bonds moved aggressively sideways at long-term yield lows after coming out of the gate strong on Monday. There were several notable shifts in buying vs selling demand, but most of them were purely for technical reasons. It wasn't...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Surge as Jobs Report Stokes Big-Picture Fears

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by Matthew Graham on June 07 2019, 5:35 PM

The labor market has been the last bastion of defense against the various threats to the current economic expansion. Inflation may be intractable. Global growth may be a concern. But don't try to tell me a recession or even a contraction is in the...
MBS Day Ahead: We Could Say "All Eyes on NFP," But...

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by Matthew Graham on June 07 2019, 8:25 AM

In the day just past, bonds managed to hold perfectly flat despite several big-ticket market movers in play. These included the European Central Bank's (ECB) announcement and press conference as well as the important ISM Non-Manufacturing data. The...
MBS RECAP: No Shake-Up So Far This Week. NFP Tomorrow

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by Matthew Graham on June 06 2019, 6:03 PM

In hindsight, it's been a boring week for bonds with each trading day falling mostly inside Monday's range and easily inside the 2-day range set by Friday and Monday. Flat trading isn't all that uncommon, but it's less common when it follows...
MBS Day Ahead: Consolidation Continues

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by Matthew Graham on June 06 2019, 8:58 AM

In the day just past, bonds maintained a range that fell almost perfectly inside the range from the previous day. The same was true of the previous day (Tuesday) and is also true so far today. This sort of momentum builds a case for a sideways consolidation...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.83%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.50%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.88%

MBS Prices:

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -0.12%
|
Refinance Index -1.23%
|
Purchase Index 1.13%

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