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MBS RECAP: Bonds Back at Range Boundary

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Increasingly Threatened by Momentum Shift;...

MBS RECAP: Limited Reaction to Powell Testimony; Stocks

MBS Day Ahead: 2018 Rate Hike Odds Provide Backdrop For Powell...

MBS RECAP: Slightly More Active Than a Typical Summertime Monday

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Housing Permits Soften, Starts Plummet

Pricing, Efficiency, and Operations Products; California DRE...

Mortgage Applications: Decline in Purchases Offset by Refinance...

Same Old Story For Mortgage Rates

Builder Confidence: Strong but Unchanged, Material Costs Rising

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Housing Permits Soften, Starts Plummet; Millennial Homeownership Headwinds; Refi Apps Improve

Published: 7/18/2018

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MBS RECAP: ECB Surprises Markets, But Bonds Liked It

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by Matthew Graham on June 14 2018, 4:15 PM

We knew the ECB (European Central Bank) was going to have to address its bond buying program soon, because it expires after September. Several speakers had alluded to the likelihood that it would be addressed in today's announcement. Markets took...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Cheer ECB's Mic Drop

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by Matthew Graham on June 14 2018, 9:00 AM

Today's domestic session begins with a positive reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The ECB broke from tradition by dropping their bigger bombs at the 7:45am announcement as opposed to Draghi's 8:30am press conference. They...
MBS RECAP: Mostly a Knee-Jerk Reaction to Fed Dots and Powell

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2018, 5:52 PM

In one sentence, today's Fed rate forecasts pushed bonds into weaker territory at 2pm and Jerome Powell's press conference helped to recover most of the losses. The forecasts showed a slightly higher probability of 4 rate hikes in 2018. The average...
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2018, 2:05 PM

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in MarchMay indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderatesolid rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent...
MBS Day Ahead: All About The Dots, Bout The Dots, No Rate Hike

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2018, 9:09 AM

"The dots" refer to the Fed's periodically updated economic projections. "Periodically, " in this case, means 4 times a year out of the 8 annual Fed meetings. "Economic projections" is a misleading term, not because the...
MBS RECAP: No Drama From CPI; Bring On The Fed

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by Matthew Graham on June 12 2018, 5:11 PM

Today turned out to be a dud, thanks to a completely uneventful CPI reading as well as a right-down-the-middle 30yr bond auction. Neither of these events were necessarily destined to shake things up, but CPI certain COULD have (if it fell far from forecast...
MBS Day Ahead: Ceilings to Watch if Weakness Continues

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by Matthew Graham on June 12 2018, 9:46 AM

Bonds are starting the day in a slightly weaker stance yet again. While we managed to come back from a weaker start yesterday, it's worth checking in with the important defensive ceilings. If this week continues to be unfriendly, these ceilings would...
MBS RECAP: Little-Changed After Uneventful Summertime Monday

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by Matthew Graham on June 11 2018, 4:17 PM

History suggests that Fed/ECB meetings in June are more than up to the task of causing significant volatility in bond markets. It also suggests that summertime Mondays often turn into unofficial 3-day weekends. Both options are still on the table for...
MBS Week Ahead: High Stakes and Wide Range of Outcomes

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by Matthew Graham on June 11 2018, 9:22 AM

Bond markets have weathered the storm of Italian political drama, which created the bulk of volatility over the past 3 weeks. They've considered the implications of various tariff-related developments at home, as well as the implications for potential...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Mostly Hold "Flash Rally" Gains

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by Matthew Graham on June 08 2018, 4:56 PM

What a quiet and boring trading session it was! Well, to be fair, there's still half an hour left as I type this, but most bond market participants mark the end of the day at 3pm E.T. By that time, we were almost perfectly unchanged and hadn't...
MBS Day Ahead: Refreshing Resilience Introduces New Possibilities

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by Matthew Graham on June 08 2018, 9:06 AM

The day is young, but the fact that we're starting out with much of yesterday's "flash" rally intact means that new doors are opening for bonds. Next week's central bank announcements are--well... central to any assessment of near...
MBS RECAP: Fleeting Gift or Just The Beginning?

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by Matthew Graham on June 07 2018, 5:01 PM

Today ended up being all about the early afternoon "flash crash" in bond yields (from 2.94 to 2.884% in fairly short order). While they're not common, these sorts of things do happen from time to time. The most notable past example in October...
MBS Day Ahead: How High Are Those Eyebrows?

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by Matthew Graham on June 07 2018, 9:34 AM

Stop me if you've heard this one before. Here's a formula for one of the ways bond markets move: Rates fall based on a particular risky eventuality. While that the likelihood and the impact of that eventuality is being assessed, the rally continues...
MBS RECAP: Central Bankers and Corporate Issuance Not Helping

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by Matthew Graham on June 06 2018, 5:32 PM

Bonds were weaker right from the start today as the overnight session saw several members of the European Central Bank comment on tapering prospects. Granted, they're not calling it "tapering." They're not even referring to any distinct...
MBS Day Ahead: Careful What You Wish For

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by Matthew Graham on June 06 2018, 9:53 AM

I owe you an apology. I caused a bit of a sell-off in bond markets today. It all started yesterday afternoon when I called attention to the fact that Italian headlines and credit spreads were still moving markets even though they shouldn't be. Markets...

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MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Increasingly Threatened by Momentum...

Fed Chair Powell will deliver round 2 of his congressional testimony today, this time at the House FSOC (yesterday was with the Senate Banking Committee...
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Pricing, Efficiency, and Operations Products; California...

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Mortgage Applications: Decline in Purchases Offset...

Refinancing made a tiny bit of a comeback during the week ended July 13. Both the Refinancing Index, a component of the Mortgage Bankers Associations ...
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MBS RECAP: Limited Reaction to Powell Testimony; Stocks...

Fed Chair Powell fielded questions from the Senate Banking Committee today as a part of the 2-day semi-annual congressional testimony often referred to...
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Same Old Story For Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today, prolonging an exceptionally flat trend. Over the past 3 weeks, the average mortgage seeker will not have...
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Builder Confidence: Strong but Unchanged, Material...

As analysts had expected, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) remained at 68 this month. The reading...
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MBS Day Ahead: 2018 Rate Hike Odds Provide Backdrop...

Fed Chair Powell begins 2 days of semi annual congressional testimony today with the Senate Banking Committee at 10am. In recent years, this testimony...
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Builders Heeding Advice to Go West. Or South

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has plucked more information from the Census Bureau's Survey of Construction (SOC), this time to paint...
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“What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence.” While you ruminate on that one, there continues to be evidence...
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MBS RECAP: Slightly More Active Than a Typical Summertime...

Summertime Mondays are notorious for light volume and seemingly random trading. Today was a slightly more active than normal in that regard, largely due...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Edge Higher

Mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels since late May as of last Friday. Today, then, would be the 2nd best day since late May. Rates edged slightly...
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MBS Week Ahead: Another Week, Another Chance to Run...

This is the off-season for bonds, but they still have to show up for the game every day. The coaching staff (aka the traders turning the cogs of the underlying...
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Permit to Completion - Builder Timeline Depends on...

Despite complaints about labor, lot, and material shortages, builders needed no more time to build a home last year than they did in 2016. The time did...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Gain Despite Data Surprise and Stock...

Before any discussion about market movement in July, we have to set the stage with some disclaimer about "slow summertime trading." That was...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Lowest Rates Since May, But There's a Catch

Mortgage rates fell by an observable amount today-- one of the few times they've done so in recent weeks. Technically, today's average lender is offering...
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MBS Day Ahead: Get Used to Coconuts, Probably

I know I made a Looney Tunes reference last week, but another one is in order. For those that aren't familiar, Yosemite Sam is stranded on a desert...
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Mortgage Rates Still Can't Find Inspiration

Mortgage rates stood a very decent chance to experience the highest volatility of the week today thanks to the most important economic data of the week...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Hold Steady Despite Big Ticket Events

Welcome to summertime in the bond market, where each day is narrower than the last! The same can be said for the past 2 weeks and the past several months...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.64%
|
15 Yr FRM 4.14%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.52%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 103-31 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 105-23 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 106-16 (-0-14)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.60%
|
Refinance Index -3.69%
|
Purchase Index -1.98%

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