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MBS RECAP: Bonds Bounce Back From Mid-Day Swoon

MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Back Near Unchanged Levels after Stronger...

MBS Day Ahead: Last Day of Tame Data Before Things Get Serious...

MBS RECAP: Some Weakness and a Few Reprices, but Mostly Holding...

MBS MID-DAY: Hold Ground, Moderately Weaker, but Outperforming...

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Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower; Volatility Ahead; Seasonally-Adjusted Home Prices Down in May

Published: 7/29/2014

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MBS RECAP: Participation Returns and Votes in Favor of Range

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by Matthew Graham on July 08 2014, 4:38 PM

Market participation was pathetic yesterday--the lightest session since at least April. Today was merely "average" but that's a huge improvement over yesterday. As markets regained a pulse, it beat steadily toward lower bond yields-- thus...
MBS MID-DAY: Holding Solid Gains With Help From Stocks and Europe

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by Matthew Graham on July 08 2014, 11:54 AM

With today continuing yesterday's tradition of offering very little by way of scheduled events, bond markets must look elsewhere for cues. Actually, that's not really a fair conclusion considering bond markets haven't really been paying much...
MBS Day Ahead: Surprisingly Enough, Still Fighting to Hold the Range

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by Matthew Graham on July 08 2014, 7:42 AM

"The range" is admittedly an overused term, and it requires constant contextual clarification. While various examples offer convenient connections between MBS and Treasuries, it's the latter that typically acts as the representative. Today's...
MBS RECAP: Slow Day; No Drama; No Data; No Reprices

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by Matthew Graham on July 07 2014, 4:48 PM

Today's session barely had a pulse. Weather is nice. It's the day after a 3-day weekend, and there was nothing meaningful on the event calendar. That made today a prime candidate for a 4-day weekend in financial markets. Not only does this affect...
MBS MID-DAY: Very Light Activity, but Moderately Positive; MBS Underperform

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by Matthew Graham on July 07 2014, 12:40 PM

From Thursday's latest levels, Fannie 3.5s are 3/32nds higher in price, compared to a 9/32nds gain in 10yr Treasuries (also in price). That means Treasuries are doing a bit better today. There's not much to infer here, and Treasuries had been...
MBS Day Ahead: Light Economic Calendar, FOMC Minutes, and Potential Change in Trend

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by Matthew Graham on July 07 2014, 7:32 AM

On the whole, 2014 has certainly seen a narrow range in rates, but within that broader range, we've still been able to witness distinct trends. For instance, rates were sideways to slightly higher in February and March, then moved convincingly lower...
MBS RECAP: MBS Close Near Best Levels; Sell-Off Was Manageable Considering The Data

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by Matthew Graham on July 03 2014, 3:23 PM

There's not much left to be said or concluded in terms of today's events (because it's a short day, and there simply hasn't been much time between now and the MBS Mid-Day). Bond markets took an understandably big hit after the 288k vs...
MBS MID-DAY: Understandably Rocked by Jobs Numbers, but Still Standing with Help From Europe

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by Matthew Graham on July 03 2014, 12:05 PM

Inexplicable bond market resilience isn't always about the Eurozone, but sometimes it is, and today is one of those times. In order to have inexplicable resilience, there must first be explicable (or how about 'understandable' weakness). That's...
MBS Day Ahead: Epically Condensed NFP Day

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by Matthew Graham on July 03 2014, 7:31 AM

There is so much on tap today per hour of open market time. It may be some sort of record. Not on the economic calendar below, but still potentially significant is the European Central Bank Announcement at 7:45am. Then Draghi returns to complicate the...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Weaker Still as ADP Suggests Caution ahead of NFP

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by Matthew Graham on July 02 2014, 6:36 PM

Love it or hate it, ADP data matters when it's as far from consensus as it was this morning (otherwise, it's been having less and less of an impact). Even today, that diminished relevance shines through as bond markets sold-off less than they...
MBS MID-DAY: Almost Perfectly Flat After ADP-Inspired Sell-Off

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by Matthew Graham on July 02 2014, 12:17 PM

Referring to the morning's weakness as exclusively "ADP-inspired" is a bit of an overstatement . Bond markets have generally been trading in the direction of broad-scale "quarter-end" trading, and the subsequent correction of quarter...
MBS Day Ahead: Battle to Hold Recent Gains Ahead of NFP

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by Matthew Graham on July 02 2014, 7:42 AM

Thursday approaches, bringing with it a glut of significant economic data, an ECB Announcement, and an early close in observance of Independence Day. As if by design , benchmark 10yr yields find themselves right on the lower edge of the predominant 2014...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Suffer at Hands of The Calendar

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by Matthew Graham on July 01 2014, 4:46 PM

One theme dominated the day: changing of the guard between June/Q1 trading and July/Q2. Out with the old, in with the slightly less old, but not fundamentally too different, as they say. If you've been tuned in to almost any recent MBS Commentary...
MBS MID-DAY: Languishing at Lows Amid Generalized New Quarter Weakness

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by Matthew Graham on July 01 2014, 12:10 PM

Simply put, there's been a moderate, but pervasive amount of bond market weakness intact ever since yesterday's quarter-end trading wrapped up. As we discussed on several recent occasions, the risk was that the strong showing into quarter-end...
MBS Day Ahead: Rates Remain on Edge Ahead of NFP

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by Matthew Graham on July 01 2014, 7:46 AM

With the end of the month/quarter out of the way, bond markets may now have more capacity to tune in to the week's economic data. But when quarter-end has been biased in one direction, the beginning of the new quarter can sometimes act as a bit of...

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