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MBS RECAP: Markets Finally Doing Interesting Things, But...

MBS Day Ahead: The Obvious Bounce Could Be Too Obvious

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Digest ECB and Disease Risks

MBS Day Ahead: Infinite Faith vs Infinite Resignation: Bond Market...

MBS Week Ahead: Light Data Week Leaves Focus Overseas

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Client Engagement, Sales, API Products; Coronavirus Scare; ECB's...

Here's How The Average Loan Looked in December

Foreclosures at 14-Year Low; Loan "Mortality" up 126...

Non-QM, Loan Trading Products; Comp Survey; Moderate Expansion...

Mortgage Rates Maintaining Longer-Term Lows For Now

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MBS RECAP: Trade Headlines Stealing Thunder From Heavy Hitters

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by Matthew Graham on December 10 2019, 5:15 PM

Last week saw an apparently important jobs report ATTEMPT to have a lasting impact on financial markets only for the move to be completely erased by this morning. Labor market data was already a bit of an outcast owing to its consistently strong performance...
MBS Day Ahead: Still Waiting on Bigger Potential Market Movers

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by Matthew Graham on December 10 2019, 8:33 AM

In the grand scheme of things, today will likely be another placeholder of a day unless some unexpected (and fairly significant) trade war update happens to come out. That leaves the afternoon's 10yr auction as the only moderately capable market mover...
MBS Day Ahead: Last Serious Trading Week of 2019

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by Matthew Graham on December 09 2019, 9:07 AM

It's been almost exactly 3 months since the quick rate spike in early September. That, of course, followed an impressive run to the lowest rates in more than 3 years in August. The combination of those long-term lows and the quick bounce set the stage...
MBS RECAP: NFP Swings For Fences, But Still Comes Up Short

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by Matthew Graham on December 06 2019, 3:30 PM

This morning's commentary was titled "NFP Doesn't Matter (Even If It Looks Like It Does)." Apparently NFP didn't like being called out because it did everything in its power to prove me wrong. Ultimately though, it would need to...
MBS Day Ahead: NFP Doesn't Matter (Even If It Looks Like It Does)

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by Matthew Graham on December 06 2019, 8:31 AM

First Friday of the month, and thus time for the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. Also known simply as "the jobs report," no other piece of economic data has as much of a track record of inspiring massive market movement. But in the current environment...
MBS RECAP: NFP's Stolen Thunder

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by Matthew Graham on December 05 2019, 5:41 PM

After the little bout of whipsaw volatility of the past 3 trading sessions, it will be a tall order for even the mighty NFP to move markets much tomorrow (as long as it's not insanely far from the forecast). Thank the trade war for that. Trade headlines...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Have Forgotten All About Tuesday's Trade Drama

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by Matthew Graham on December 05 2019, 9:48 AM

Bonds took Trump at his word in the wee hours of Tuesday morning with respect to waiting until Nov 2020 (or later) to finalize a trade deal with China. I suggested that was a silly thing to do at the time because not only was it likely a mere negotiation...
MBS RECAP: Bonds at The Whim of Trade Headlines

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by Matthew Graham on December 04 2019, 4:28 PM

Bonds sold off clearly and somewhat abruptly following a Bloomberg article on the trade negotiations being in better shape than markets might assume based on the previous day's trade headlines (which were also the biggest market movers of the day...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Still Tuned In to Trade, But Today's Data Matters Too

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by Matthew Graham on December 04 2019, 8:28 AM

Trade headlines rocked markets yesterday, making for the biggest single-day bond rally since early August--even after the gains moderated in the afternoon. The pace of the move was perhaps a bit surprising given the recent evidence of desensitization...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Quickly Reverse The Curse Thanks to Trade Headlines

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by Matthew Graham on December 03 2019, 5:36 PM

One short day after sending somewhat alarming signals about a move back up toward the top of the recent range, the bond market bounced back with a vengeance. What else could cause such an unexpected move but an unexpected development in the US/China trade...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Battle Back With Trade Headline Help

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by Matthew Graham on December 03 2019, 9:03 AM

Yesterday saw bonds jump up to the highest yields in more than 2 weeks. Culprits were diverse, including stronger overseas econ data and new trading positions being added for December's first trading day. Domestic econ data helped stem the losses...
MBS RECAP: Bumpy Start For Bonds in December

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by Matthew Graham on December 02 2019, 4:11 PM

As the bond market shook off the holiday weekend lethargy and metaphorically (and literally) returned to the office, it was met with an immediate barrage of selling triggers . Stronger Chinese data and an absence of trade deal escalation pushed stock...
MBS Week Ahead: Data and Trading Activity Ramp Back Up For 2019's Final Weeks

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by Matthew Graham on December 02 2019, 10:10 AM

Welcome to the last few trading weeks of 2019--3 or them to be precise. After that, the Christmas and New Year holidays will mean we can't trust the last 2 calendar weeks of the month to accurately represent investor consensus. Speaking of investor...
MBS Day Ahead: Big Decisions to be Made, But Not Today

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by Matthew Graham on November 29 2019, 9:48 AM

Due to the holiday-shortened work week, today's economic calendar is empty and Wednesday's was about as clogged as it ever gets, with the following reports all within the space of 90 minutes (except the early bird mortgage application data): MBA...
MBS RECAP: Holiday Drift Continues

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by Matthew Graham on November 26 2019, 5:24 PM

For those of you who are MBS Live members, yes, the recap title is the same as the MBS Huddle. Sorry for the lack of creativity, but this is an uninspiring week that's been living up to every ounce of its uninspiring potential. Bonds were inconsequentially...

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MND NewsWire

Here's How The Average Loan Looked in December

The average interest rate on closed loans inched up in December and the share of those loans that were for refinancing moved lower. Ellie Mae's Origination...
MND NewsWire

Foreclosures at 14-Year Low; Loan "Mortality"...

Even though many of the measures are already at record lows, mortgage delinquencies continue to tick downward according to Black Knight's "first look"...
Pipeline Press

Non-QM, Loan Trading Products; Comp Survey; Moderate...

Did you know that you can vote by smart phone in Seattle ? Did you know that less than 20 percent of the world's population has ever taken a single flight...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Digest ECB and Disease Risks

The bond market--widely expected to have been launching yields up and over 2% in 2020--is instead in the process of testing it's best levels since...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Maintaining Longer-Term Lows For Now

Mortgage rates remained in line with 3-month lows today for the average lender. Several lenders offered marginally better terms compared to yesterday,...
MND NewsWire

Existing Home Sales Highest in Nearly 2 Years

Existing home sales rose convincingly in December, gaining 3.6 percent compared to sales the prior month. Sales of all existing home types , single-family...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Infinite Faith vs Infinite Resignation...

You know things are bad when I resort to invoking Kierkegaard in bond market commentary, but that's what it's come to. Our quest to observe something...
MND NewsWire

Home Prices Still Growing at More than 5% Annually

The annual rate of home price increases continued at a stable rate in November according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), however there are...
Pipeline Press

Warehouse, Broker Products; M&A With Lenders and...

What does $4.6 billion dollars buy you these days? A couple casinos: a Blackstone-sponsored JV is paying that for MGM Grand and Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas...
MND NewsWire

Fannie Predicts Pick-Up in Residential Construction...

In its first economic forecast of 2020, Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group is doubling down on its late 2019 predictions. The economists...
MND NewsWire

Mortgage Application Volume Retains Most of Last Week's...

The volume of mortgage applications submitted during the week ended January 17 slowed after a strong performance - a 30.2 percent increase - the prior...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Back to 3-Month Lows

Mortgage rates dropped to begin the holiday-shortened week as markets expressed a bit of panic over the coronavirus outbreak in China. This is similar...
MND NewsWire

Gen Z and Millennials Plan on Buying Homes in Larger...

The share of adults who told the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) they were considering a home purchase in the next year has now fallen year...
MBS Commentary

MBS Week Ahead: Light Data Week Leaves Focus Overseas...

In addition to being a 4-day trading week due to yesterday's holiday, there's also a general lack of big-ticket economic data on tap. In fact,...
Pipeline Press

Non-QM, Digital Tools; Population Shifts in Lending;...

Everyone is aging, right? “I finally did it! I bought a new pair of shoes with memory foam insoles. No more forgetting why I walked into the kitchen...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Cap Extraordinarily Tame Week Despite...

We've seen a whole lot more movement in the bond market for a whole lot less motivation than we had this week. Back to back econ data shockers (Philly...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Off Recent Lows

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher over the past two days as strong economic data and corporate earnings coaxed investors into riskier assets like stocks...
MBS Commentary

Markets Wrapping Things Up Ahead of Long Weekend

Sometimes the market moves in clear response to a headline event or the scheduled release of an economic report. We have clear examples of this recently...
MND NewsWire

December's Housing Starts Surged to 13-Year High

While permits fell from the previous month, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development said December was another exceptional...
Pipeline Press

Renovation Products; CEOs Can't Ignore LIBOR Transition;...

I’ve gotta hand it to those writers who put out listings for real estate agents. Maybe if I had a bunch of money I could live in a “secluded...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.61%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.22%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.69%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 105-26 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 107-04 (0-06)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 107-21 (-0-04)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -1.21%
|
Refinance Index -1.77%
|
Purchase Index -2.01%

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