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MBS Day Ahead: Fed Announcement: March Madness Edition

MBS RECAP: Bonds Officially Held January's Range Ahead of...

MBS Day Ahead: Looks Like We Made It

MBS RECAP: After Green Binge, Bonds Take "Sick" Day

MBS Week Ahead: Both Sides of Market Getting Excited For The...

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Builders Less Concerned about Material Costs

Mortgage Apps: Refinancing Revives as Rates Retreat

Rates Unchanged for 4th Straight Day. That Should Change Tomorrow

Once Considered Inferior, Automated Appraisals Are Helping Stem...

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For Rates, Tomorrow Brings Bigger Risks; Once Thought Inferior, Automated Appraisals Finding Their Place

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MBS RECAP: Dormant Data Returns in a Big Way

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by Matthew Graham on February 14 2019, 5:18 PM

Of all the reports silenced by the government shutdown, Retail Sales was probably the most missed. It didn't help that December is a rather important month for such data. December's report finally arrived today, and it made waves . While there...
MBS Day Ahead: Retail Sales is Back! Will Traders Pretend Nothing Changed?

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by Matthew Graham on February 14 2019, 8:31 AM

Perhaps it wasn't their fault, but several top tier economic reports up and left us during the government shutdown. We knew we'd see them again at some point, but in the meantime, we had to adapt to gleaning economic cues elsewhere. Moreover,...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Lose Ground on Shutdown Deal Hopes and Inflation Data

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by Matthew Graham on February 13 2019, 6:18 PM

At first glance, this morning's weakness was all about the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--the most widely-followed inflation report. In order to make a case for CPI causing the weakness, we'd have to assert that a core year-over-year reading of 2...
MBS Day Ahead: How Inflation Matters in The Bigger Picture

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by Matthew Graham on February 13 2019, 8:48 AM

This morning brings the week's first major economic report in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--one of the biggest inflation reports. Inflation has been an on-again, off-again market mover for the bond market over the past 10 years for a...
MBS RECAP: Shutdown Deal Hurts Bonds, But Mostly Helped Stocks

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by Matthew Graham on February 12 2019, 5:18 PM

It's hard to say exactly where stocks and bonds would be today absent the news from yesterday night regarding a possible shutdown deal. Both sides of the market were already in the process of bouncing as of last Friday--with yesterday's closing...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Gearing Up For a Big Move

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by Matthew Graham on February 12 2019, 9:46 AM

In the shorter-term, there's nothing too interesting about the past few weeks of trading. Relative to the highs and lows set in the first 3 weeks of the year, the subsequent range has been well-contained. Over the past 2 weeks, it's been getting...
MBS RECAP: Potential Warning About The Range

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by Matthew Graham on February 11 2019, 4:26 PM

I have to stretch to make a day like today interesting. As I'm fond of doing, I could easily label this one of those unofficial 3-day weekend type of Mondays. That description still works as 10yr yields were only 2bps higher and Fannie 4.0 MBS lost...
MBS Week Ahead: Shutdown Data Finally Starts to Flow as Next Shutdown Looms

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by Matthew Graham on February 11 2019, 8:53 AM

The two key fiscal issues at the moment are the trade deal with China and the expiration of temporary government funding at the end of this week. Between those two, the trade deal is by far and away the bigger deal for markets. The shutdown is still important...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Calmly Trading Near Best Levels

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by Matthew Graham on February 08 2019, 6:05 PM

The bond market is exuding a sort of confidence we've not seen in a long time. I'm not saying that because outright rate levels are lower than they've been in more than a year. Rather, I'm saying it because bonds have been content to hold...
MBS Day Ahead: At Risk of Moving The Goalposts

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by Matthew Graham on February 08 2019, 9:52 AM

Whereas "moving the goalposts" has a negative connotation in general (referring to the changing of the rules in the middle of the game), it's a fairly common theme in the realm of technical analysis. That seems horribly counterintuitive...
MBS RECAP: Return of "Global Growth Concerns"

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by Matthew Graham on February 07 2019, 6:48 PM

2014 was marked by a sense of hope that helped both sides of the market (debt and equity) make solid gains heading into early 2015. Rates in the US were falling as the ECB fought to unveil true quantitative easing (and because they may have rebounded...
MBS Day Ahead: Suddenly, The Fed Isn't Looking Too Crazy

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by Matthew Graham on February 07 2019, 10:12 AM

If you thought last week's Fed announcement was surprisingly dovish/friendly/concerned, you weren't alone. Compared to the "steady-as-she-goes" December announcement, January's marked an abrupt shift. Whereas the Fed was hiking several...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Side-Step Again, Despite Weaker Treasury Auction

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by Matthew Graham on February 06 2019, 3:20 PM

If you're operating under the assumption that the prevailing momentum in bond markets is sideways for the time being, today offered few surprises. In fact, it barely offered anything interesting at all. The only significant item on the calendar was...
MBS Day Ahead: As Treasuries Consolidate, MBS Have Been Outperforming

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by Matthew Graham on February 06 2019, 9:14 AM

One of the best side effects of the recent consolidation has been the outperformance of MBS vs Treasuries. We often talk about the fact that MBS like stability and predictability . Conversely, they tend to underperform when the broader bond market is...
MBS RECAP: Data Helped, But Bonds Might Not Have Needed It

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by Matthew Graham on February 05 2019, 5:24 PM

An interesting thing happened today for those who were paying close enough attention to notice. At face value the week's most important economic report came out weaker than expected and bonds rallied in response. Notably , however, the rally actually...

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MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Officially Held January's Range...

Bonds began the day in weaker territory following overnight headlines suggesting European leaders would be going up to bat for a compromise Brexit deal...
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Rates Unchanged for 4th Straight Day. That Should Change...

Mortgage rates were flat for the 4th day in a row today in a sign that investors have largely taken their seats for tomorrow's big show. The Fed will release...
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Once Considered Inferior, Automated Appraisals Are...

Although lacking in popularity, it appears that automated appraisals have obtained their intended results. Urban Institute (UI) researchers Laurie Goodman...
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MBS Day Ahead: Looks Like We Made It

Rates staged an impressive rally in November and December before bottoming out on the first trading day of 2019. The bounce was fairly abrupt at the time...
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Sales, Marketing Products; Lender Training; MBS Platform...

At roughly $8,500 per loan and continuing to defy gravity, scholars disagree on whether vendors lower the cost of originating a residential loan. But then...
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MBS RECAP: After Green Binge, Bonds Take "Sick"...

For the bond market St Paddy's day was a 2 week celebration of "green" (as in the color of price gains or falling yields on trading terminals...
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Mortgage Rates Hold 14-Month Lows

Mortgage rates didn't budge today--a logical result with no signs of life in underlying bond markets. In the current case, this is just fine with us considering...
MND NewsWire

Builder Confidence Holds Steady After Recovering From...

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) held steady in March , after partially recovering from substantial...
MBS Commentary

MBS Week Ahead: Both Sides of Market Getting Excited...

This week's economic calendar is exceptionally light, with no true top-tier reports. Even the 2nd-tier data is limited with Philly Fed on Thursday...
Pipeline Press

LO Jobs; Warehouse Products; 1099 Comp - Brokers and...

I hope that I never get to the point of writing things down on my “to do” list even after I’ve done them, just so I can cross them off...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Squeezed to Best Levels in Months...

Uncertainty has reigned supreme for much of 2019 as traders weigh shifting economic data, potential data inconsistencies (due the shutdown), trade policy...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Rates Stay Low; Bigger Risks/Rewards Next Week

Mortgage rates remained at recent lows today, as underlying bond markets strengthened. For US Treasuries, this brought rates to new multi-month lows. Mortgage...
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Aging Americans, Aging Housing Stock Driving Remodel...

Nearly 80 percent of America's housing stock is at least 20 years old and twice that share of homes were built 50 or more years ago. With new construction...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Not Another Ides of March Headline

People who write articles every day love holidays and other dates that offer some reprieve from the need to be creative when it comes to writing headlines...
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Broker Products; UK says no to "no deal";...

I didn’t know that America has a “most hated” type of home loan until Bloomberg “informed” me that reverse mortgages are…...
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MBA has a More Upbeat View on New Home Sales

Even though the January Census Bureau report on new home sales published on Thursday wasn't all that encouraging for the spring market, the Mortgage Bankers...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Small Scale Volatility Lost in Big Picture...

In the bigger picture, we'll look back at today's intraday trading range and it will be completely meaningless--among the narrower days of 1st...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Lowest in More Than a Year

Mortgage rates held steady today, despite moderate weakness in underlying bond markets. This occurred for two reasons. First, yesterday saw bond markets...
MND NewsWire

Surge of New Home Sales in West Salvage January Numbers

It seems like only yesterday that we were looking at the December new home sale numbers - well actually it was 6 days ago. Now we have the January sales...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: How Much Do We Really Care About Brexit...

Top line, bottom line: Brexit is a big deal. Without the Brexit referendum in mid-2016, US bond yields never would have revisited all-time lows. It's...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.40%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.98%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.20%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 103-28 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 105-08 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 106-10 (0-01)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.47%
|
Refinance Index -2.02%
|
Purchase Index -2.63%

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