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Who Broke The Mortgage Market And When Will It Be Fixed?

MBS Day Ahead: Visualizing The Drama And The Comeback in Mortgages...

DEFINITIVE FED MBS BUYING FAQ (And Other Resources to Consider...

Master List of Mortgage Market's COVID-19 Changes And Appraisal...

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CFPB Empowers Fannie/Freddie to Overcome Lockdown Woes

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MBS RECAP: Traders Had Plans Today, and NFP Wasn't Part of Them

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by Matthew Graham on February 07 2020, 5:23 PM

Today's big to-do was a paradoxical bond market rally in response to a much stronger-than-expected jobs report. This wasn't just a case of a compelling behind-the-scenes headline or event stealing the spotlight from the established data. No.....
MBS Day Ahead: Paradoxical Reaction to NFP Sets Stage For Interesting Weekend

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by Matthew Graham on February 07 2020, 10:18 AM

Here's one of those NFP mornings where it would have been very hard to predict what we're seeing in bonds based on what we've seen in the NFP numbers. The jobs report itself was solidly stronger than expected, but bonds spent almost no time...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Take a Break From Recent Drama

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by Matthew Graham on February 06 2020, 4:40 PM

The bond market took a break from the past 3 days of weakness today. There weren't any significant economic reports or news events (not as far as the market was concerned anyway), including any material changes to the coronavirus outlook. This offered...
MBS Day Ahead: Battle To Remain In New Range Rages On

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by Matthew Graham on February 06 2020, 9:23 AM

One of the most stunning and profound features of the past week of trading days has been the intensely higher volumes-especially in the overnight trading sessions. Typically a strong day of volume in 10yr Treasuries futures is anything over 1m contracts...
MBS RECAP: Coronavirus Hopes Hit Bonds as Correction Continues

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by Matthew Graham on February 05 2020, 6:14 PM

So far, the correction to the coronavirus bond market rally is only a few days old, but it became much more problematic today. Yesterday was arguably the first day of the correction and at that point, we hadn't seen quite enough weakness to label...
MBS Day Ahead: Potential Coronavirus Correction, Day 2: It's Still Bad For Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on February 05 2020, 9:43 AM

Heading into this morning, it looked as if bonds would have a fighting chance, at the very least. The fight in question is against the big bounce toward higher yields that will inevitably follow a shift in the broader psychology (both market and medical...
MBS RECAP: Considering a Coronavirus Bounce for Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on February 04 2020, 6:27 PM

We knew we'd have to deal with it at some point, and now we have to wonder if it's already here: the coronavirus bounce. Why did we know it was coming? Nothing too complicated here... The recent rate rally was/is unequivocally driven by a big...
MBS Day Ahead: Dangerous Day For Bonds: What's Behind The Drama?

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by Matthew Graham on February 04 2020, 9:32 AM

In many respects, the market response to the coronavirus outbreak has been able to take cues from past experience with SARS in 2002/2003. In many other respects, markets are flying blind due to substantial differences between the past and present. In...
MBS RECAP: No Major Moves in New Week Despite Strong Econ Data

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by Matthew Graham on February 03 2020, 6:28 PM

Today's key scheduled event was the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI--one of the several most important reports after the perennial heavy hitter, NFP (aka, the jobs report, which also comes out this week). The Manufacturing PMI has been stuck...
MBS Week Ahead: Big Week of Econ Data Tempered by Virus-Watching Trade

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by Matthew Graham on February 03 2020, 9:18 AM

The total count of confirmed coronavirus cases will continue to grow for quite some time (several months, perhaps). Markets and epidemiologists alike agree on that fact. The greater unknown is the trajectory of that case count. The sooner/faster it decelerates...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Forge New Lows After Yesterday's False Alarm

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2020, 6:07 PM

When the World Health Organization declared coronavirus an international health emergency yesterday, there were two schools of thought. At first glance, it should have been good for the bond market as the announcement seemed to indicate things were getting...
MBS Day Ahead: False Alarm, But Still on Guard

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2020, 9:12 AM

Yesterday offered up a fairly intense trading session for the bond market. Yields moved to the lowest levels in months with 10yr Treasuries hitting 1.534 in the afternoon. Shortly thereafter, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared coronavirus...
How Low Can We Go?

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2020, 10:35 AM

With the Fed out of the way, coronavirus cases still growing rapidly, and no major correction seen in the bond market, the question on everyone's minds is: how low can we go? While the answer may not depend entirely on the evolution of the coronavirus...
MBS RECAP: Powell Does No Harm (to Bonds)

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by Matthew Graham on January 29 2020, 5:08 PM

It's fashionable to criticize Fed Chair Powell for negatively affecting the bond market during his customary press conference on Fed Announcement days, but you can mark today as the 10th announcement in a row where rates moved lower versus the previous...
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on January 29 2020, 2:02 PM

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in OctoberDecember indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months,...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.40%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.50%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.50%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 106-24 (0-12)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 107-01 (0-10)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 108-24 (-0-09)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 15.13%
|
Refinance Index 25.99%
|
Purchase Index -2.67%

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