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MBS Day Ahead: Recent Rally Under Threat Ahead of Fed

MBS RECAP: Slowest Day of The Year for Bonds

MBS Week Ahead: Fed Announcements are Major Events, but Probably...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Extend Gains in Super Quiet Conditions

MBS Day Ahead: Low Volume and Light Liquidity Expected. Here's...

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Credit Underwriting Changes; Exec Comments on Margins and Volume;...

Rates Begin Week Unchanged at July's Lows

Fannie/Freddie Joint Venture Flying Too Far Under Radar -UI

Existing Home Sales Weakness Blamed on Same Old Problem

Lender Fee and Pricing Changes; CFPB Suit Dismissed, HMDA webinar

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Fannie/Freddie Joint Venture Too Far Under Radar; Existing Sales Foiled by Same Old Villain

Published: 7/24/2017

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MBS RECAP: Summertime Sideways

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by Matthew Graham on June 21 2017, 4:50 PM

With the taper tantrum in 2013 and Brexit in 2016, two of our most recent examples of summertime bond trading have been pulled very far from historical trends. Namely, the summer months tend to see narrower ranges and flatter trajectories compared to...
MBS Day Ahead: Oil's Impact on Markets: a Slippery Slope

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by Matthew Graham on June 21 2017, 9:17 AM

Here we are again with oil falling into new lows for the year and suddenly, it's the inspiration for everything according to most mainstream financial media. Slippery puns aside, don't fall for it! Sure, oil prices matter. And they can even have...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Erase Yesterday's Weakness Without Much Help

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by Matthew Graham on June 20 2017, 4:54 PM

Today had no significant news or events on the calendar, thus leaving traders to watch other traders for cues. To some extent, several Fed speakers got some attention, but the best we can do here is to pick out only the comments that reinforce the rally...
MBS Day Ahead: Still Fighting to Hold The Range

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by Matthew Graham on June 20 2017, 9:08 AM

The week continues to offer little by way of scheduled economic data/events to stir the pot, thus leaving us to observe the underlying biases among traders (if there are any). So far, those biases are hard to detect. Most options are being left open ...
MBS RECAP: Fed's Dudley Smacks Down Bond Bulls

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by Matthew Graham on June 19 2017, 5:06 PM

Right out of the gate this morning, NY Fed President William Dudley set a rather negative tone for bond markets with several comments that essentially smacked down some of the recent low-rate momentum. Here are the newswires in question, with each followed...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Still in Limbo, Despite Recent Victories

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by Matthew Graham on June 19 2017, 9:40 AM

The past 3 trading sessions marked 3 of the 5 lowest closes for 10yr yields in 2017. Friday's strength did a nice job of pushing back against a potential bounce that took shape after last week's Fed announcement. That strength helped build the...
MBS RECAP: Negative Housing Sets Positive Tone for Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on June 16 2017, 5:04 PM

Today was destined to be a sideways grind at slightly weaker levels for bond markets. This would have extended the theme that had been in place since Wednesday's FOMC events. The weakness probably wouldn't have erased Wednesday's gains. The...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds May Not Decide Much Today, And That Would be a Good Thing

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by Matthew Graham on June 16 2017, 9:09 AM

Bond markets may not give a stellar performance today, offering resounding confirmation of an ongoing rally. Conversely, they're not likely to rise enough to raise serious questions about an ongoing rally. When it comes to getting a sense of potential...
MBS RECAP: Post-Fed Weakness Brings Bonds Back to The Gap

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by Matthew Graham on June 15 2017, 4:26 PM

To be fair to the Fed, they didn't really cause most of today's weakness. Bond markets already showed their hand with respect to yesterday's Fed events--essentially endorsing the rate hike, the forecasts, and the balance sheet plan as something...
MBS Day Ahead: Big Discussion About Big-Picture Bond Market Trends

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by Matthew Graham on June 15 2017, 9:34 AM

Yesterday's rally was a potential game changer for the "great push back" of 2017 . That's not the official term for the past several months of general positivity in bond markets, but the underlying phenomenon is as official as it gets...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Rally on Data's Truth. Fed's Spin Mostly Ignored

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by Matthew Graham on June 14 2017, 5:34 PM

In a weird way, today's Fed announcement came out right at 8:30am when Core CPI dropped to 1.7%, falling well short of the 1.9% median forecast (year-over-year). While the Fed prefers PCE as an inflation metric, the two tend to hang out pretty close...
Differences Between Current and Previous FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on June 14 2017, 2:03 PM

(Additions underlined, deletions struck through) Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in MarchMay indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen even as growth inand that economic activity slowed.has been rising...
MBS Day Ahead: All About The Fed's Rate Hike Expectations

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by Matthew Graham on June 14 2017, 8:32 AM

If you follow bond market movement for long enough, one thing becomes clear above all others: the Fed is the most reliable explanation for shifts in momentum. That's not to say that bond markets are primarily driven by the Fed. After all, one could...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Sending Clear Message Ahead of Fed

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2017, 4:55 PM

The past 3 trading sessions have largely represented a consolidation in prices and yields, just off the best levels of the year. There has certainly been a risk that rates were bouncing off those levels only to begin the next uptrend (much like mid April...
MBS Day Ahead: Last Day of Moderate Data/Events Before Things Get Serious

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2017, 8:47 AM

While we do have some economic data to get through today (Producer Prices, which are already out stronger than expected, and the afternoon's 30yr bond auction), the lion's share of the f ocus remains on the bigger picture and the bigger-ticket...

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Fannie/Freddie Joint Venture Flying Too Far Under Radar...

Most of the major proposals for reforming the housing finance system rely on two steps to minimize the risk that any one or two institutions, and in today...
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Existing Home Sales Weakness Blamed on Same Old Problem

Existing home sales slipped in June, with the blame again placed on low levels of inventory . The decline in sales, announced on Monday by the National...
MBS Commentary

MBS Week Ahead: Fed Announcements are Major Events...

In March 2011, the Fed announced it would change things up with respect to its policy announcements. Although there would still be 8 of them each year...
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Lender Fee and Pricing Changes; CFPB Suit Dismissed...

What should lenders and loan officers be concerned about? What’s threatening their livelihood, besides all cash buyers, venture capital firms buying...
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Extend Gains in Super Quiet Conditions

As expected, today could be better characterized as a highly-regulated narcotic sleep aid than an interesting trading day for bond markets. The dreams...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Lowest in July

Mortgage rates moved lower today, setting yet another new low for the month of July. For the past 2 weeks, rates have been pushing back against a fairly...
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With Expiration Looming, NAR, NAHB Applaud Flood Insurance...

It remains to be seen if it passes into law, or how it will hold up during the process, but housing industry groups say an agreement has been hammered...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Low Volume and Light Liquidity Expected...

One of the hallmarks of classic (read: old school) technical analysis is the role of volume in confirming market movements. For instance, if 10yr yields...
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State-Level Changes Across the Board; Housing and Rates

Under the heading, “What’ll they think of next?”, especially for aging Boomers, comes stairs that store energy and help the next person...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Markets Had ECB Almost Perfectly Pegged

Talk about your anticlimactic conclusions! It's not that the European Central Bank (ECB) was likely to make any meaningful changes in its policy stance...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Hold 3-Week Lows After Central Bank...

Mortgage rates held relatively steady today, keeping them in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 weeks. There was relatively little market movement...
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Single Security Praised by Urban Institute

The single agency security toward which the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), have been...
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Vendor and Lender News/Updates; Academy Buys First...

This morning we’ve had the usual Thursday initial jobless claims economic release. At the other end of the teeter totter, here’s an amazing...
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Ellie Mae Reports Few Changes in Loan Characteristics

Refinancing held its ground in June, with that share of the mortgage market remaining at 32 percent. While that is a significant decline from the 47 percent...
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Low Rates Stoke Second Month of Prepayment Gains

Black Knight Financial Services said on Thursday that continued low interest rates fostered another increase in prepayments . The national prepayment rate...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Hoping Draghi Keeps Things Green...

Mario Draghi is the President of the European Central Bank (ECB). That's the EU's version of the Fed. Like the Fed in the past, the ECB is still...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Eerily Quiet Ahead of Central Bank Announcements

Much has been made of tomorrow's European Central Bank (ECB) Announcement, mainly because of its proximity to ECB President Draghi's comments on...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates at 3-Week Lows

Mortgage rates moved lower today, despite slightly weaker underlying bond markets. This has been an ongoing phenomenon in recent days. Bonds improve, implying...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Trust The Technicals?

This commentary will begin it's life as the "day ahead" entry for July 19th, 2017, but it may as well be a "knowledge base" entry...
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Upcoming Events; Disaster Updates; Yield Curve Flattening

In a broad generalization, when people have money to invest they usually think about stocks, bonds, or real estate. (Yes, I know there are other assets...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.00%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.29%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.28%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 107-03 (-0-06)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-06 (-0-04)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 110-17 (-0-04)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -7.42%
|
Refinance Index -12.98%
|
Purchase Index -2.53%

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