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MBS MID-DAY: Weakness Persists Despite Rotten New Home Sales...

MBS Day Ahead: Rates Continue Hovering on the Edge of a Breakout...

MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Lose Ground After Strong Start; MBS Underperform

MBS MID-DAY: Back to Unchanged After Stronger Start

MBS Day Ahead: Data-Free Day Leaves Bonds to Ponder Long-Term...

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Banks and Lenders Buying Each Other & Financial Services...

Modest Housing Recovery Will Continue -Fannie

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CIT Group to buy OneWest; Thoughts on Non-QM products; Recent...

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Modest Housing Recovery Will Continue -Fannie; Mortgage Applications Finally Move Up; Rates Back to 'Unchanged' After Stronger Start

Published: 7/23/2014

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MBS MID-DAY: Almost Perfectly Flat After ADP-Inspired Sell-Off

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by Matthew Graham on July 02 2014, 12:17 PM

Referring to the morning's weakness as exclusively "ADP-inspired" is a bit of an overstatement . Bond markets have generally been trading in the direction of broad-scale "quarter-end" trading, and the subsequent correction of quarter...
MBS Day Ahead: Battle to Hold Recent Gains Ahead of NFP

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by Matthew Graham on July 02 2014, 7:42 AM

Thursday approaches, bringing with it a glut of significant economic data, an ECB Announcement, and an early close in observance of Independence Day. As if by design , benchmark 10yr yields find themselves right on the lower edge of the predominant 2014...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Suffer at Hands of The Calendar

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by Matthew Graham on July 01 2014, 4:46 PM

One theme dominated the day: changing of the guard between June/Q1 trading and July/Q2. Out with the old, in with the slightly less old, but not fundamentally too different, as they say. If you've been tuned in to almost any recent MBS Commentary...
MBS MID-DAY: Languishing at Lows Amid Generalized New Quarter Weakness

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by Matthew Graham on July 01 2014, 12:10 PM

Simply put, there's been a moderate, but pervasive amount of bond market weakness intact ever since yesterday's quarter-end trading wrapped up. As we discussed on several recent occasions, the risk was that the strong showing into quarter-end...
MBS Day Ahead: Rates Remain on Edge Ahead of NFP

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by Matthew Graham on July 01 2014, 7:46 AM

With the end of the month/quarter out of the way, bond markets may now have more capacity to tune in to the week's economic data. But when quarter-end has been biased in one direction, the beginning of the new quarter can sometimes act as a bit of...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Navigate Quarter-End Without Too Much Drama

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by Matthew Graham on June 30 2014, 3:50 PM

Considering that today's trading range wasn't meaningfully wider than Friday's AND that closing prices look like they'll fall inside Friday's range, today has turned out to be a relatively drama-free month-end/quarter-end trading session...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Slightly Stronger After Volatile Start

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by Matthew Graham on June 30 2014, 12:05 PM

While the overnight sessions was relatively uneventful, the first half of the domestic session has seen some decent volatility . After starting out in positive territory, bond markets sold off fairly quickly starting around 9:30am. Chicago PMI was weaker...
MBS Week Ahead: Action-Packed 3.5 Day Week Ends with NFP

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by Matthew Graham on June 30 2014, 7:27 AM

Pound for pound, this is one of the busiest weeks of the year . There are relevant economic reports every day as well as Fed speakers and the last trading day of Q2. Wrapping it all up (sort of) is June Nonfarm Payrolls. This time, however, it arrives...
MBS RECAP: Strong Start And Another Afternoon Fade

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by Matthew Graham on June 27 2014, 5:54 PM

For a third straight day, bond markets improved into the domestic session and gave back gains in the afternoon (chart below). Of those three days, today was the most gradual on both accounts with no meaningful data to drive the morning trade and no major...
MBS MID-DAY: Strong Start Fades into Noon Hour

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by Matthew Graham on June 27 2014, 12:33 PM

Heading into today, we were prepared for there to be no particular rhyme or reason behind market movements. Money managers are primarily focused on housekeeping-type trading as quarterly positions are sold and reinvested without particular regard for...
MBS Day Ahead: Probably a Quiet Friday, but With Potential Quarter-End Trading Considerations

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by Matthew Graham on June 27 2014, 7:42 AM

The actual end of the quarter isn't until Monday, but it's not uncommon for market participants to get end-of-quarter (or end-of-month for that matter) trading needs out of the way earlier if opportunities present themselves. In the current case...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Continue Exploring Range Breakout

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by Matthew Graham on June 26 2014, 5:55 PM

For a second day, bond markets and/or mortgage rates (take your pick) frolicked outside the walls of the castle. In this case, that castle is "the range" for pretty much all of June. In terms of mortgage rates, it was narrow enough that 4.25...
MBS MID-DAY: Bonds Were Ready to Rally; Data Didn't Object

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by Matthew Graham on June 26 2014, 12:10 PM

As we discussed in The Day Ahead , bond markets were sending signals that they were embarking on a trend of improvement. The caveat was that those signals were so obvious that we could safely assume most market participants were well-aware of them. That...
MBS Day Ahead: Next Move for Bonds Already Obvious, Maybe Too Obvious

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by Matthew Graham on June 26 2014, 7:42 AM

In at least 2 discussions on MBS Live yesterday, I referenced the current technical landscape in a clever way by saying the biggest risk to the analysis is how obvious it seems. This is clever because I get to be right no matter what. If rates improve...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Get Head Start in the Morning, Closer Race by the Close

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by Matthew Graham on June 25 2014, 5:31 PM

If you happened to look at MBS/Treasuries around 8:35am, the day was looking pretty great. But that ended up being the best of it, and a long, slow slog back toward more moderate gains ensued. MBS still managed to walk out the door 5/32nds higher than...

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