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MBS RECAP: Does Oil Matter to Rates?

MBS Day Ahead: It's Still a Correction Unless The Fed Says...

MBS Day Ahead: As 1.80% Gives Way in 10yr Yields, What Would...

MBS RECAP: Game Over? Maybe, Maybe Not...

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Get First Opportunity to Reverse Curse After...

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Broker Products; Vendor Developments; Rate Volatility Increase

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Tariffs are Creating a Perfect Storm for Builders

DPA, HELOC, Non-QM Products; Lender Flood News; What's Driving...

Worst Week For Mortgage Rates Since 2016

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MBS Day Ahead: First Econ Data of The Week, But Bonds Have Bigger Concerns

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by Matthew Graham on August 13 2019, 8:35 AM

In the day just passed, bonds put in their second biggest rally day of the past 3 weeks (the crazy ones) and their biggest rally day since yields bottomed out last week. Strikingly, there was no major singular reason for the move, unless we wish to speak...
MBS RECAP: Light Volume Snowball Rally For Treasuries. MBS, Not So Much

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by Matthew Graham on August 12 2019, 6:00 PM

There were no significant scheduled events in the offing today. Volumes were down sharply in the bond complex as well (less than 50% of recent highs). That made for a bit of a slippery slope of illiquidity as last week's short positions were flushed...
MBS Week Ahead: Sideways Baseline Waits For Inspiration (And Wonders

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by Matthew Graham on August 12 2019, 9:30 AM

In the week just passed, bonds began to settle into a range after the sharp move lower in the previous week (driven by flaring trade tensions). This settling process didn't truly emerge until Thursday. Before that bonds rallied hard into Wednesday...
MBS RECAP: In Like a Lion. Out Like a Slightly Less Angry Lion

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by Matthew Graham on August 09 2019, 4:53 PM

I wouldn't go so far as to say this week of bond market movement went "out like a lamb," but at the very least, it wasn't nearly as brutal as the first 4 days. Yields were almost perfectly unchanged in the overnight session, but began...
Let's Talk About Lagging Mortgage Rates (No "Day Ahead")

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by Matthew Graham on August 09 2019, 12:48 PM

It's too late in the morning at this point to refer to this post as a "Day Ahead," so let's change course a bit and simply address the biggest burning question of the week: WHY ARE MORTGAGE RATES AND LENDER PRICING SO MUCH WORSE THAN...
MBS RECAP: If You Time It Right, Markets Are Totally Flat

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by Matthew Graham on August 08 2019, 5:12 PM

For some reason, yesterday's recap didn't go out. You didn't miss much. I wrote a bit about how I roll out of my high tech cryo-stasis chamber each morning and check a custom alert I have set on MBS Live for a 4:30am market update. If the...
MBS Day Ahead: It Could Always be "Over"

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by Matthew Graham on August 08 2019, 10:33 AM

In the day just passed, bonds endured whipsaw volatility of the highest and most frustrating order. Overnight gains were swift and largely defied any rational explanation other than the generic " tradeflows " platitude. The notion of short-covering...
MBS Day Ahead: Don't Trust Anyone Who Tells You What's Moving Markets

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by Matthew Graham on August 07 2019, 10:13 AM

In the day just passed, bonds held their ground after overnight weakness and eventually moved back into positive territory. That happened in spite of an ongoing correction higher in stocks (notable because a stock sell-off was a centerpiece of the previous...
MBS RECAP: Yes, MBS Really Lost That Much Versus Treasuries

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by Matthew Graham on August 06 2019, 6:55 PM

MBS lost 10 ticks today while 10yr Notes gained 1 tick. Times like this are uncommon, but they do happen. The perfect storm required for such things typically includes a massive bond rally (check) driven by unscheduled events like trade tweets (check...
MBS Day Ahead: When it Comes to Holding Recent Gains, What Would Failure Look Like?

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by Matthew Graham on August 06 2019, 9:50 AM

In the day just passed, the bond market spent a 3rd straight day collecting treasure. For our purposes, "treasure" refers to the newfound, unexpected, and fairly massive gains courtesy of a rapid snowball move across multiple asset classes in...
MBS RECAP: Why Do We Care About Chinese Currency?

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by Matthew Graham on August 05 2019, 4:52 PM

From 2010 on, the point about the interconnectedness of global financial markets has increasingly been driven home. It was a fun time for me, analytically, because I felt like those of us who understood the gravity of the European situation had an unfair...
MBS Week Ahead: China Takes Center Stage

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by Matthew Graham on August 05 2019, 10:01 AM

In the week just passed, bonds set out to react to the Fed announcement and a slew of important domestic economic data. While all of the above exerted SOME influence on the bond market, Trump tariff tweets stole the show on Thursday morning with the announcement...
MBS RECAP: Rates Keep Falling Because You Thought They'd Bounce

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by Matthew Graham on August 02 2019, 8:00 PM

To be fair, after rates fall as much as they fell yesterday (let's specify: the rates implied by bond markets, not necessarily actual mortgage rates), almost everyone is worried about a bounce. Traders were already shifting their bets toward higher...
MBS Day Ahead: NFP Day is NFP Day

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by Matthew Graham on August 02 2019, 8:31 AM

In the day just passed, bonds successfully stormed the castle, assuming the castle refers to 10yr yields with a "1" in front. At first inspiration came from follow-through trading of Wednesday's Fed events coupled with weak economic data...
MBS RECAP: Trump Wanted a Bigger Rate Cut, so He Pressed The Override Button

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by Matthew Graham on August 01 2019, 4:07 PM

The world may never know if today's Trump tweets have anything at all to do with his stance on the Fed's fund rate, but one things for sure: they were single-handedly able to deliver another de facto rate cut. I'll explain... The Fed cut its...

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MND NewsWire

Tariffs are Creating a Perfect Storm for Builders

The California Building Industry Association (CBIA) is calling the Trump Administration tariffs the "perfect storm" for the state's already troubled housing...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: As 1.80% Gives Way in 10yr Yields, What...

In the day just passed, bonds got our hopes up early with an initially positive reaction to the ECB announcement. We were even in the green for most of...
Pipeline Press

DPA, HELOC, Non-QM Products; Lender Flood News; What's...

Any month that starts on a Sunday contains a Friday the 13th. The superstitious sufferers of “triskaidekaphobia” try to avoid bad luck by keeping...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Game Over? Maybe, Maybe Not...

10yr yields hit 1.80% today. Using the power of the MBS Live search feature, I compiled the following list to put 1.80% in context: "I'd be looking...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Worst Week For Mortgage Rates Since 2016

Mortgage rates didn't have a great day today, moving even higher from what were already the worst levels in a month as of yesterday afternoon. In and of...
MND NewsWire

Are Lenders Anticipating a Slowdown? Available Credit...

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says its Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) suffered its largest decline in eight months in August. The Index...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Get First Opportunity to Reverse...

In the day just passed, the recent bond market selling-spree showed its first serious signs of leveling off since it began one week ago. This wasn't...
Pipeline Press

Capital Markets Products; Training and Events, Some...

I apologize in advance for the length of today’s commentary, but there’s a lot going on! Ask any economist if rent control works, and they’ll...
MND NewsWire

Fraud Risk Decreases on a Wave of Refi Activity

Mortgage application fraud declined in the second quarter of this year. CoreLogic's report on the incidence says that one out of every 123 mortgage applications...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bond Correction Takes The Day Off

Bond traders took a break from their newfound hobby of the past 5 business days: relentlessly selling bonds . Maybe they want to branch out and try new...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Steady at Recent Highs

Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged today for the average lender as underlying bond markets finally calmed down. Over the past few days, bond yields...
MND NewsWire

Lenders See Demand and Profits Expanding, While Credit...

Mortgage lenders reflected a lot of optimism about their business prospects in the third quarter Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey conducted by Fannie Mae...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Be Very Skeptical of Rate Forecasts...

In the day just passed, bonds kicked into higher gear with respect to the correction that began to materialize last Thursday. If you feel like you missed...
Pipeline Press

Non-QM, Branding, Correspondent Products; Origination...

Is our housing system a dumpster fire ?” (I don’t think so; we have hundreds of thousands helping millions every year although F&F would...
MND NewsWire

Mortgage Apps Found Gains in a Holiday-Shortened Week

Although the week ended September 7 was shortened by the Labor Day holiday, mortgage application volume managed an increase. It was the first week-over...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Have You Heard The One About The Bond Market...

Bonds continued to sell-off again today--this time slightly more aggressively than yesterday. Yes, the current spike in yields/rates is frustrating, but...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Highest in More Than a Month

Mortgage rates and the broader bond market are both in the midst of a correction after hitting the best levels in more than 3 years last week. This is...
MND NewsWire

Some States Showing Signs of Stress, Delinquencies...

While it doesn't appear to be of "canary in the coalmine" magnitude, CoreLogic notes that there were annual increases in the delinquency rates of eight...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Keeping an Eye on Corrective Trend as...

In the day just passed, bonds began the week with a resolute sell-off that broke through an important overhead ceiling in 10yr yields (1.62). Weakness...
Pipeline Press

Warehouse, Broker Products; Current Economic Picture

The gap between the haves and have-nots continues to widen. Though the wealth of U.S. households has eclipsed $100 trillion, the wealthy have primarily...

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Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.87%

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