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MBS RECAP: Brexit Bond Benefits Are Apparently Eternal

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Waving Long Goodbye to Trend, Hoping For...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Make Good on Threats of Weakness

MBS Day Ahead: Without Help, Bonds Face Uphill Battle

MBS RECAP: Bonds Skittish After Stocks Find Bottom

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GDP Growth Called "Transitory" While Low Inflation...

Is the Trade Dispute Dampening Home Purchase Activity?

Mortgage Rates Bounce Back

Home Sales Stall; Sellers Need to be Realistic

Fueled by Low Rates, Prepayment Rate Continues to Rise

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Is Trade Hurting Housing? Transitory Growth and Permanently Low Inflation?

Published: 5/22/2019

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MBS Day Ahead: Limited Data as Rates Try to Find Next Ceiling

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by Matthew Graham on April 22 2019, 9:48 AM

Are we or are we not headed toward a global economic contraction in mid-to-late 2019? Or are such things on hold for another year or two? Inquiring traders want to know. They'd been trading as if a contraction was a more imminent threat from November...
MBS RECAP: Europe to The Rescue

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by Matthew Graham on April 18 2019, 2:31 PM

Global economic data is big business for the bond market these days. With no end in sight to the domestic economic expansion (note: 1.6% vs 0.9% f'cast in today's Retail Sales and another decades-long low in Jobless Claims), any recessionary risks...
MBS Day Ahead: EU Weakness Helping US Bonds, But Don't Count Chickens

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by Matthew Graham on April 18 2019, 10:10 AM

Despite the presence of a big economic report like Retail Sales (which came out much higher than expected) or the unique event risk presented by the Barr report, the defining moment of the trading day will turn out to be the 3:30am release of just-slightly...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Battle Back After Opening Weakness

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by Matthew Graham on April 17 2019, 5:06 PM

As feared, bonds were gearing up for the raft of big-ticket economic data in China overnight. On balance, that data was quite a bit better than expected. The resulting selling spree was thus fairly logical. 10yr yields nearly hit 2.62% before it was over...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Successfully Predict Chinese Rebound

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by Matthew Graham on April 17 2019, 9:06 AM

Over the years, there have been more times than I can count where the financial media has mistakenly assigned some significance to news or events in China. The past week has had its moments in that regard, but this time around, the Chinese economy is...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Keep losing Ground. Defensive Positioning or Something Worse?

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by Matthew Graham on April 16 2019, 5:11 PM

Rates were flat to start the overnight session and didn't bat an eyelash at initial strength in equities markets during Asia-only trading hours. Things changes when European trading got underway with the sizable jump in the DAX (German stocks) coinciding...
MBS Day Ahead: Be Careful What You Read and Whom You Trust

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by Matthew Graham on April 16 2019, 10:32 AM

Reading the news this morning, I came across multiple articles with such bogus claims that I feel compelled to rant about it here. All of the offenders (I stopped looking after 3 out of 3 all said the same thing) suggested that the overnight stock surge...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Defy Friday's Logic to Hold Flat

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by Matthew Graham on April 15 2019, 6:15 PM

What would you expect to care more about Chinese economic data: the US bond market or the Chinese stock market? Option 2? Good, I agree. Now, if you said that US bond yields and Chinese stocks were moving higher together in response to strong Chinese...
MBS Week Ahead: Time to Find Out How Much China Matters

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by Matthew Graham on April 15 2019, 10:12 AM

Ah China... the US financial market's scapegoat of choice for many a swing that has nothing to do with China (with a few big, notable exceptions). Last Friday brought the biggest day of bond market weakness we've seen in a while and Chinese economic...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Quickly Find Themselves Defending 2.55% Ceiling

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by Matthew Graham on April 12 2019, 11:04 AM

The domestic bond market woke up this morning to find itself pushed up against the same ceiling that had offered a friendly bounce late last week. Between now and then, we've seen solid enough progress to reinforce that ceiling, but now it is called...
MBS RECAP: Brexit Punt Successfully Delays The Game

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by Matthew Graham on April 11 2019, 6:33 PM

As expected, the result of the emergency EU summit overnight was a hefty brexit extension, giving the UK until 10/31 to approve a compromise deal to leave the EU. At face value, this wasn't the conclusion bonds wanted, because it keeps economic hope...
MBS Day Ahead: Weaker, Stronger, Flat... As Long As We Hold This Line

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by Matthew Graham on April 11 2019, 10:32 AM

Global financial markets caught a glimpse of a world with 10yr yields above 3% in late 2018, and they didn't like it. A combination of stock selling and Fed accommodation (a sequence of events, really) helped rates move swiftly back in the other direction...
MBS RECAP: Dovish Draghi Deftly Delivers Downbeat Message

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by Matthew Graham on April 10 2019, 5:04 PM

European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi is getting very good at telling the world that the EU economy is in dire straits, but not to worry and that everything should be fine about 6 months from now. He's been saying that for roughly 5 years...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Plead Bullish Case as Fed Takes The Stand

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by Matthew Graham on April 10 2019, 10:02 AM

Wednesday is off to a good start with friendly inflation data leading things off at 8:30am and an even friendlier press conference from European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi. The ECB didn't make any policy changes, but Draghi's tone...
MBS RECAP: Mixed Performance as MBS Slide While Treasuries Improve

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by Matthew Graham on April 09 2019, 5:29 PM

Treasuries were stronger today while MBS were mostly weaker. These days can happen, and they're all the more likely when a few key variables are present. Among those variables are Treasury auctions, big geopolitical risks, and the monthly MBS settlement...

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More From MND

MND NewsWire

Is the Trade Dispute Dampening Home Purchase Activity...

Refinancing rose to the surface yet again, driving the gain in mortgage applications during the week ended May 17. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Make Good on Threats of Weakness

Bonds have been threatening to end their pleasantly surprising stint of gains over the past few weeks on each of the past 4 business days. Yesterday's...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Bounce Back

Mortgage rates had a fairly decent day yesterday as far as most lenders are concerned. A few lenders saw fit to bump rates up in the afternoon following...
MND NewsWire

Home Sales Stall; Sellers Need to be Realistic

This one might smart a bit. There were big hopes for home sales in April, with interest rates continuing at unexpectedly low levels, unemployment at a...
MND NewsWire

Fueled by Low Rates, Prepayment Rate Continues to Rise...

With interest rates remaining at 2019 lows and spring market home sales kicking in, the rate of prepayments continues to rise. Black Knight, in its "first...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Without Help, Bonds Face Uphill Battle...

In the day just past, bonds weakened moderately amid the lightest volume in more than 3 weeks and a relative absence of market moving data/events. The...
Pipeline Press

Budgeting, Comp Products; Sales, Government Investigation...

What’s the banter, and in the unverified rumor mill, at the MBA’s Secondary Conference? Fannie, Freddie, and FHA are all concerned about being...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Skittish After Stocks Find Bottom

Both stocks and bonds have been edging back into less panicked territory after trade war drama fizzled out last week. In other words, stock prices and...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Mostly Hold Near Lows, But Things Could...

Mortgage rates moved microscopically higher today, depending on the lender. In terms of underlying movement in the bond market, however, rates should have...
MND NewsWire

New Data Prompts Freddie Mac to Upgrade Their Forecast

Freddie Mac's May Forecast continues to look for a downward trending interest on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. The company's economists are project...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Holiday-Shortened Trading Week Promises...

In the week just past, bonds managed to extend the already unexpected gains that began on May 6th following a sharp escalation in US/China trade war rhetoric...
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Training, Reno, Appraisal Products; Compliance Warning;...

Tony H. sent, “A conference is a gathering of people who singly can do nothing, but together can decide that nothing can be done.” Not at this...
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Start Strong but Fade to 'unchanged'...

Bonds began the overnight session in unchanged territory but began to improve on various news reports that fueled a global flight-to-safety. These included...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates End Week Near Long-Term Lows

Wednesday was the best day this week for Mortgage rates with the average lender at the lowest levels in more than a month and very close to the lowest...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Limited Data; Trade Headlines Still...

In the day just past, bonds enjoyed a break in trade-related headlines, an absence of new Italy/EU drama, and a reasonably informative set of economic...
Pipeline Press

Broker, Underwriting, MSR Products; Bank, Lender, and...

A capital markets friend relayed this note recently received from an LO. “When do you think stated pick-a-pay products will come back? I have some...
MND NewsWire

Low Rates Stabilize Refinancing Share of Originations

Refinancing held on to a 35 percent share of mortgage originations in April according to the Origination Insight Report from Ellie Mae as the 30-year note...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Logical Losses Leave Bonds in Still-Decent...

Bonds finally moved in a less friendly direction today after 3 solid days of gains. The losses were logical, though, considering an absence of geopolitical...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Ebb Higher, But Only Slightly

Mortgage rates hit the lowest levels in more than a month yesterday and came very close to the lowest levels in more than a year. Things changed today...
MND NewsWire

MBA Betting on New Home Sales Surge

Applications for new home purchases jumped 15.6 percent in April compared to a year ago and were 3.0 percent higher than in March. The Mortgage Bankers...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.19%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.93%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.13%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 104-06 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 105-15 (0-00)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 106-23 (0-03)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.47%
|
Refinance Index -2.02%
|
Purchase Index -2.63%

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