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MBS RECAP: Despite Strong Data, Bonds Remain Focused on Fed

MBS Day Ahead: Here's The Wind-Up

MBS RECAP: Bonds Biding Time Until Wednesday

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Gearing Up For Unfriendly Fed

MBS RECAP: Might as Well Hit This Weekend With Some Hope

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Home Prices Slowing Their Momentum, Catching up With Housing

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Mortgage Rates Treading Water Near Long-Term Highs

Housing Market Struggles to Keep Pace With US Economy

Broker and DTC Products; Conventional Conforming News, Wells'...

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Near Summer's Best Levels Ahead of Fed Minutes

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by Matthew Graham on August 22 2018, 9:25 AM

News regarding Cohen's plea deal came out right as futures markets were closing yesterday. There were only 15-20 minutes for a reaction, and we wouldn't normally expect to see a full-fledged reaction at that time of day anyway--especially during...
MBS RECAP: Slow Session For Bonds Despite Stock Record

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by Matthew Graham on August 21 2018, 4:47 PM

The S&P 500 hit a record intraday high today (just over 2873.22 compared to the previous high of 2872.87). In other words, it wasn't a triumphant surge. Moreover, it served as a ceiling, with closing levels being nearly 10 points lower. Bonds...
MBS Day Ahead: Bullish and Bearish Cases For The Next Big Move

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by Matthew Graham on August 21 2018, 8:56 AM

With yields touching the lowest levels in more than a month yesterday, there are two distinct cases to be made for the path ahead. In the more pessimistic case, those low yield levels fall in line with the bottom of the range seen from late June through...
MBS RECAP: Today's Market Mover: Jawboning

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by Matthew Graham on August 20 2018, 5:31 PM

When it comes to financial markets, the definition for "jawboning" is a bit looser than normal as it also encompasses market movement that occurs simply because "someone" said "something." In other words, in some cases, the...
MBS Week Ahead: Slow Data, Vacation Absences, Fed Minutes Make For Uncertain Week

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by Matthew Graham on August 20 2018, 9:12 AM

The frustrating thing about weeks that are normally vacation-heavy is that the resulting lack of volume and liquidity can leave bonds in a position to make quick, unprovoked, illogical movements... sometimes. Other times, the vacation-week gameplan is...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Ignore Stocks to Hold Steady on The Week

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by Matthew Graham on August 17 2018, 5:30 PM

10yr yields ended the week at almost exactly where they began. With the exception of Tuesday, bonds closed within 1.5bps of each other on the other 4 days this week. Tuesday was only 2bps higher and gave way to an overnight rally that restored the range...
MBS Day Ahead: Checking In With Bigger Picture (Treasury vs MBS)

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by Matthew Graham on August 17 2018, 10:22 AM

It may end up being a slow, summertime Friday with the news cycle calming down relative to earlier in the week, not to mention the fact that its peak vacation season (traders take vacations too, ya know!). That gives us a moment to step back and reflect...
MBS RECAP: Bonds End Unchanged After Mid-Day Scare

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by Matthew Graham on August 16 2018, 5:13 PM

Treasuries were weaker at the start of the overnight session as renewed US/China trade negotiations propelled global equities markets higher. The hallmark of yesterday's overnight session was a sharp drop in Chinese stock futures which spilled over...
MBS Day Ahead: Turkey Causing Road Rage; Another Look at Moving Average Misdirection

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by Matthew Graham on August 16 2018, 10:34 AM

I found myself driving in the truck for more than an hour yesterday evening--long enough to hear the news cycle repeated several times. During that time, I was emphatically warned about this " new " and " surprising " issue of Turkey's...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Dragged Into Snowball Rally by Stocks (Not Turkey)

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by Matthew Graham on August 15 2018, 4:01 PM

Headlines continue overstating the connection between US market movements and the financial drama in Turkey. Today was especially damaging to the case for correlation as Turkish Lira improved significantly even as US stocks and bond yields sank. The conventional...
MBS Day Ahead: Foreign Markets Helping Bonds (Not Turkey)

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by Matthew Graham on August 15 2018, 9:45 AM

From New York, traders have been looking east for at least some level of inspiration from Turkish market volatility. As we've discussed exhaustively, however, that's far from the only game in town. Today brings fresh evidence. In looking east...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Fight Off Sharper Retreat Ahead of Data

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by Matthew Graham on August 14 2018, 4:30 PM

Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory as Turkish tensions eased overnight. That certainly wasn't the only game in town as far as market movers were concerned though! On several occasions throughout the day, US bond markets could be seen...
MBS Day Ahead: With or Without Turkey, Bonds Face Same Challenges

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by Matthew Graham on August 14 2018, 9:24 AM

Turkish Lira bounced in the overnight session--not in any epic fashion, but enough to result in a bit of spillover for stocks/bonds. 10yr yields rose as high as 2.9022 before cooling back down. Notably, yields fell even as Lira maintained its token recovery...
MBS RECAP: Mismatch Between Headlines and Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on August 13 2018, 5:29 PM

Another day, another chance for market watchers and pundits of all types to make mountains out of Turkish molehills. Yes, the financial crisis in Turkey is important and it's still a thing , but no... it's not the most important market mover for...
MBS Week Ahead: Drama's Diminishing Returns

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by Matthew Graham on August 13 2018, 9:34 AM

Did anyone else have to sit through the drug addiction video (or was it a book?) in grade school (or was it middle school?) where the main character kept returning to this amazing fantasy of driving an exotic sports car. Each time, he had to drive farther...

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MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Biding Time Until Wednesday

Have you heard? The Fed announcement is coming up on Wednesday. While you've undoubtedly heard about that more than a few times (unless this is your...
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MBS RECAP: Might as Well Hit This Weekend With Some...

By today, it became clear that bonds were fully locked into a sideways consolidation in a range defined by the highs seen on Wed/Thu and the lows marked...
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Best Day of a Rotten Week For Mortgage Rates

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Many Enlist, but Flood Coverage Still Falls Short

Even as flood water continue to sit in living rooms and kitchens across a large swath of North Carolina it is clear that most of those homes are not insured...
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More often than not, when I use the word "believe" (or belief), it's in some vague and positive context. For instance, something like "bond...
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Investor Products; Mortgage Fraud Paper; Wells, PUF...

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MBS RECAP: Not a Win, But At Least It's Not a Loss

After a series of demoralizing losses, it feels like some small victory for bonds to simply remain sideways today. That wasn't necessarily a given...
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Mortgage Rates Trying to Stop The Bleeding

Mortgage rates were mostly able to hold steady today, although they technically moved just a bit higher and that technically leaves them at the highest...
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Existing Home Sales Level Out After Long Decline

It was a disappointment, but at least it wasn't a loss. Existing home sales, which were expected to increase in August after four straight months of declines...
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MBS Day Ahead: Long-Term Trend is a Cheap Trick. Here's...

One of the themes we often revisit in times of trouble is the long-term bull market in bonds. This traces back to the 80's and provides a shockingly...
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August Loan Closing Rate Highest of Year

The share of loans originated for refinancing rose in August for the first time this year. Ellie Mae's Origination Insight Report shows that closed transactions...
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MBS RECAP: Is It Over?

The titular question could be taken two ways . Is the selling pressure in bonds over? Is the "low rate environment" that's been in effect...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Knocking on 5% Ceiling

Mortgage rates are in bad shape . At some point in the past 3 days (depends on the lender), top tier 30yr fixed rate offerings hit their highest level...
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Home Starts Improve, but There's a Catch

Both permits and starts were expected to pick up in August, at least holding on to their slight gains in July. Housing starts did deliver, posting a strong...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.87%
|
15 Yr FRM 4.32%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.40%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 102-29 (-0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 104-26 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 106-13 (-0-11)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.60%
|
Refinance Index -3.69%
|
Purchase Index -1.98%

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