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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Begin Week With Some Optimism

MBS RECAP: Bonds Overcome Producer Inflation But Not The Range

MBS Day Ahead: Not Expecting Fireworks Ahead of 3-Day Weekend...

MBS RECAP: Fed Says Nothing New. Bonds Sell-Off Anyway

Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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Non-QM and Construction Products; Training and Events Nationwide...

Mortgage Rates Steady Ahead of Holiday Weekend

Delinquency Recovery Interrupted by Natural Disasters

Vendor and Management Products; Fannie and Freddie Updates; LIBOR...

Mortgage Rates Edge Back Up to Early 2011 Levels

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Delinquency Recovery Interrupted by Natural Disasters; Rates Steady Ahead of Holiday Weekend

Published: 11/9/2018

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MBS RECAP: Once More With (Slightly Less) Feeling

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by Matthew Graham on October 11 2018, 6:16 PM

Bonds rallied today, eventually. Most of the session was fairly flat with the afternoon bringing most of the rally thanks to another sell-off in stocks. This time, the stock losses were more measured, but only relative to days like yesterday. On a normal...
MBS Day Ahead: Here's What a Bond Rally Costs in Terms of Stock Selling

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by Matthew Graham on October 11 2018, 9:25 AM

Anything more than 20 points is a big day of selling in terms of the S&P, but that's a small enough number to be relatively common, periodically. From there, a sell-off of more than roughly 33 points becomes much less common. By the time we're...
MBS RECAP: 4 Days After Bonds Went Crazy, Stocks Took a Turn

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by Matthew Graham on October 10 2018, 6:35 PM

Remember last Wednesday? Rather forget it? Yeah, me too. That was the day that bond yields spiked last week. The size and speed of the move was out of line with any of the common explanations. These things happen, of course, and when they do, it's...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Still Focused on Defense, But Hoping Offense Figures it Out

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by Matthew Graham on October 10 2018, 9:36 AM

One of the most important themes I've tried to communicate over the past 2 weeks is that the bond market is in the middle of redefining or repricing its relationship with the available data. There was a chance that 10yr yields would try to avoid a...
MBS RECAP: Token Correction Ahead of More Important Data

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by Matthew Graham on October 09 2018, 5:12 PM

Today was a freebie for bond markets (and stocks to some extent). In the grand scheme of things, no one will look back at today and conclude anything meaningful. If anything, it will just look like a very calm, very flat trading day following a 3-day...
MBS Day Ahead: Where We Were, Where We Are, And Where We Might Be Going

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by Matthew Graham on October 09 2018, 9:06 AM

2009-2013 was an unprecedented time for the US bond market. It benefited not only from the initial blast of the Great Recession and the sluggish recovery that followed, but also from the ongoing blast of Fed bond buying and ultra-low rate policy During...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Keep Tanking, Despite NFP Miss

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by Matthew Graham on October 05 2018, 8:48 PM

The jobs report may have missed the mark in terms of payrolls, but average hourly earnings put in its 4th straight month holding 2.8% (y/y) or higher. Before these past 4 months, 2.8% was a unicorn we saw on only a few brief occasions before it ran back...
MBS Day Ahead: The Readiness is All

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by Matthew Graham on October 05 2018, 8:30 AM

At this point, there's nothing left to be said or done in preparation for today's NFP data. Bonds stand on the edge of the most recent abyss. This time it's 3.20-3.24%-ish. The specific level really doesn't matter (sorry Gundlach). It's...
MBS RECAP: It Can Always Go Either Way

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by Matthew Graham on October 04 2018, 4:48 PM

If you're looking for today's recap, check out the Huddle . Or just know that we sold-off a bit more and then settled sideways, fairly close to yesterday's highest rates. Mortgage lenders dinged rate sheets just a bit more and we're now...
MBS Day Ahead: Selling Obviously Overdone, And That's a Problem

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by Matthew Graham on October 04 2018, 9:30 AM

If you didn't catch it, and want to get caught up with yesterday's big move, this tweet has several links that should bring you thoroughly up to speed: https://twitter.com/MG_MBS/status/1047627670987526145 Moving on to today, I have a saying that...
MBS RECAP: Worst Day For Bonds in Nearly 2 Years

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by Matthew Graham on October 03 2018, 6:20 PM

In terms of outright movement toward higher rates, you'd have to go back to the days following the election in November 2016 to find anything worse than today. It was like a handful of other snowball selling sprees seen over the years in that it seemed...
MBS Day Ahead: Important Data and a Multitude of Fed Speeches, All Falling in The Woods

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by Matthew Graham on October 03 2018, 8:23 AM

Zen practitioners are an odd lot. One of their hallmark koans--the one about whether or not a tree falling in the woods makes a sound--is nonsense. I can only imagine that the person who came up with that one had never actually seen a tree. Perhaps he...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Mostly Interested in Italy Despite Other Options

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by Matthew Graham on October 02 2018, 4:21 PM

Bonds had a couple options to choose from today when it came to potential market movers. As far as known quantities, we knew there would be a speech from Fed Chair Powell (maybe he would clarify last week's inflation comments?) and also a big corporate...
MBS Day Ahead: Have You Heard The One About The Range?

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by Matthew Graham on October 02 2018, 8:37 AM

So there's this sideways trading range, and we're waiting for bonds to break out. The end... Seriously though! It's really that simple . We'd been in a range of 3.06-3.09, for the most part, in the last week and a half of September, but...
MBS RECAP: Waiting Game Begins Again

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by Matthew Graham on October 01 2018, 5:14 PM

After slogging up toward (but not over) long-term highs 2 weeks ago, 10yr yields began a waiting game that looked like it would take a cue from last Wednesday's FOMC events. As bonds rallied coming away from the Fed, there was at least some chance...

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MND NewsWire

Delinquency Recovery Interrupted by Natural Disasters

The ongoing improvement in mortgage performance hit a slight snag in the third quarter of 2018, one that appears to be disaster related. The Mortgage Bankers...
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MBS Day Ahead: Not Expecting Fireworks Ahead of 3-Day...

Between the mid-term elections earlier this week and the simple tradeflow move following the Fed yesterday, bond markets have had their chance to make...
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Vendor and Management Products; Fannie and Freddie...

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MBS RECAP: Fed Says Nothing New. Bonds Sell-Off Anyway

It's hard not to give the Fed a wide berth as the biggest potential market mover on any given Fed day. Today was a Fed day! We talked about the outside...
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Mortgage Rates Edge Back Up to Early 2011 Levels

Mortgage rates moved back up today, leaving them right in line with the highest levels of the week. These also happen to be the highest levels since early...
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Share of "Affordable" Homes Falls to 10-Year...

Housing affordability crept down again in the third quarter of 2018 reaching, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), a ten-year...
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Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements...

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in AugustSeptember indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that...
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CoreLogic: Easing Standards for DTI, LTV Underwriting

A deep dig into recent home purchase loans shows that some of the underwriting standards employed by FHA and the GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) eased...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Fed Day, Bounce Day?

I'm going to talk about the potential for a friendly bounce in bonds today. I want to be clear right up front that I'm presenting this as one of...
Pipeline Press

Construction and HELOC Products; Non-QM Webinars; Mr...

“Rob, we just went through our third staff reduction. Have you heard of any vendors that work on forecasting or doing ‘what if’ scenarios...
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Abruptly Give Back Post-Election Gains

Those who expected the election to matter to bond markets got their way overnight. Those who expected elections to be inconsequential got their way by...
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Mortgage Rates Edge Lower, But Don't Get Used to...

Mortgage rates were slightly lower today. Unfortunately, that may not be the case by tomorrow morning. Underlying bond markets (which dictate rates) lost...
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Housing Sentiment Continues to Sour as Economy Booms

Despite the success of the U.S. economy as of late, housing sentiment seems to have hit a rough patch . Fannie Mae said its Home Purchase Sentiment Index...
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MBS Day Ahead: Here's How The Election Impacted...

Whether you thought the election would or would not matter for the bond market, you were right! At times, it mattered quite a bit in the overnight session...
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Income and Subservicer Webinars; Lender Disaster News...

Lenders outside of Ohio were mildly interested in the Ohio Governor’s race where Ex-CFPB chief Richard Cordray lost. As forecast Democrats won the...
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Mortgage Apps: Down to Four-Year Low, Highest Rates...

The week ended November 2 was another week of retreat for mortgage applications as the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) Market Composite Index dropped...
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MBS RECAP: Underlying Stock/Bond Correction Still The...

While we can point to tonight's election results on the calendar, and imagine that they'll have an impact on financial markets, stocks and bonds...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Steady at Long Term Highs Ahead of Election

Mortgage rates didn't move much today. A few lenders were microscopically stronger or weaker, and the average lender was perfectly unchanged. That's fairly...
MND NewsWire

Jumbo Credit Access Surged in October

The ease of access to mortgage credit rose in October according to the Mortgage Credit Availability Index. An increase in the Index, a product of the Mortgage...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Probably One More Day of Waiting For...

Justified or not, midterm elections are the market mover du jour. Midterm elections happen today, so it's fair to wonder if they will be a market mover...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 5.05%
|
15 Yr FRM 4.53%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.61%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 102-02 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 104-01 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 105-26 (0-04)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0.03%
|
Refinance Index -0.10%
|
Purchase Index 0.12%

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