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MBS MID-DAY: Snowball Out of Steam; Budget Headline Potential

The Day Ahead: Slightly Busier Day, Sorting Real vs Temporary...

MBS RECAP: Further Improvement Amid Low Volume Backdrop

MBS MID-DAY: Holding Gains Amid Very Quiet Conditions

The Week Ahead: Limited Data and Treasury Auctions

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MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Holding Decent Gains

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November 18 2013, 11:05 AM

Some lenders who released rates early enough today may already be in a position to reprice as MBS are up at least a quarter of a point since then. Much of the improvement arrived after the stock market opened though the 10am NAHB data helped the gains...
The Week Ahead: Slow Start, then FOMC Minutes and Important Data

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by Matthew Graham on November 18 2013, 7:53 AM

Last Week - Holiday-shortened week began with bonds on the ropes after NFP - Bonds rallied on Wednesday after release of Yellen's prepared remarks - Rally extended on Thursday during Yellen Q&A - Friday began weaker, but pulled up after Economic data...
MBS RECAP: Sideways, Rates Wait for Next Week's Data

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November 15 2013, 4:05 PM

MBS are trading at their best levels of the day with just over an hour to go. Fannie 3.5s are up 2 ticks now at 101-17 and 4.0s are up 5 ticks at 104-26. Meanwhile, Treasuries remain just slightly into negative territory with 10's at 2.7033. Essentially...
MBS MID-DAY: Weak Data Offsets Overnight Losses for Rates

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November 15 2013, 11:05 AM

- Industrial Output -0.1 vs +0.2 forecast - Capacity Use Rate 78.1 vs 78.3 forecast - Manufacturing Output +0.3 vs +0.3 forecast - Mining Output -1.6 vs +1.0 forecast - Utilities -1.1 vs +4.5 forecast - Market Reaction: just a few more ticks of positivity...
The Day Ahead: Assessing New Range after Beating the Odds

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by Matthew Graham on November 15 2013, 12:26 AM

Yesterday - Yellen Confirmation Hearing helped bond markets solidify/add gains - No major surprises from Yellen, but resolute in current need for QE - Much of the rally happened in the previous session, limiting yesterday's overall gains - Positive day...
MBS RECAP: Heading Out at Highs

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November 14 2013, 5:00 PM

No sooner had the earlier alert come out than prices began finding their footing. While we did get a few negative reprices on that weakness, we're back near the day's better levels. Fannie 3.5s are up 5 ticks at 101-12 and 10yr yields are down...
MBS MID-DAY: Holding Ground Near Highs After Yellen Hearing

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November 14 2013, 12:20 PM

The overnight session largely represented a circling of the wagon as Treasuries avoided breaking any higher or lower than the highs and lows seen before and after Yellen's prepared remarks yesterday afternoon. That connotes a range of roughly 2.734...
The Day Ahead: Econ Data; Yellen Confirmation Hearing; Week's Last Treasury Auction

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by Matthew Graham on November 14 2013, 7:32 AM

Yesterday - Bond markets were stronger overnight and maintained strength during domestic session - 10yr Auction was well-received despite no "concession selling" beforehand - MBS were choppy heading into 2pm, but held their ground - Yellen's prepared...
MBS RECAP: Significant Improvement Following Yellen Remarks

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November 13 2013, 5:00 PM

Treasury Auction Jargon Refresher , if needed. Today's 10yr auction is a "refunding" (as opposed to a "reopening"). Refundings historically average slightly lower demand (as measured by bid-to-cover or "BTC"). BTC's...
MBS MID-DAY: Solid Gains Despite Upcoming Treasury Auctions

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November 13 2013, 11:05 AM

Although volume has been a bit low, Treasuries attracted modest buying in Asia--enough to bring 10yr yields under 2.75. After drifting back up to 2.765 during European hours, early domestic trading brought another push lower, this time into the 2.73's...
The Day Ahead: Bond Markets Toying With Our Emotions?

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by Matthew Graham on November 13 2013, 8:10 AM

Yesterday - Nothing happened; low volume, low movement - Slightly higher in 10yr yields, but MBS held sideways - Rate sheets continued to worsen - No clear suggestion on momentum Today - Trend is negative until proven otherwise - Will take more than one...
MBS RECAP: Uneventful and in Line with Friday's Latest Levels

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November 12 2013, 5:05 PM

Fannie 3.5s have climbed slowly and steady into positive territory as Treasury benchmarks shied away from challenging overnight highs. 10's are currently back down to 2.755 after cresting 2.78 in the noon hour. Fannie 3.5s are up 7 ticks from opening...
MBS MID-DAY: Sideways in Slightly Weaker Territory

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November 12 2013, 11:05 AM

So far this morning, we're seeing the most unfriendly technical environment for bond markets in two months. The foundation of that negativity is the well-traveled inflection point at 2.75 in Treasuries. After closing there on Friday, Asian and European...
The Week Ahead: Limited Data Leaves Auctions and Technicals in Focus

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by Matthew Graham on November 12 2013, 7:50 AM

Last Week - Bond markets moderately weaker with Tuesday's ISM data - Slow, steady recovery into Thursday PM - Friday's NFP much stronger than expected; bonds tanked - Weakest levels since late September This Week - 10yr defending sideways range boundary...
MBS RECAP: NFP Has Markets Second Guessing Taper Timeline (Again)

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November 08 2013, 4:05 PM

MBS Live : MBS Afternoon Market Summary Government Shutdowns come and go (and may come again), but our more constant companion since May has been the ongoing trial of Fed Asset purchases. The court of popular opinion quickly determined that QE wouldn...

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