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MBS RECAP: Bonds Make Case For a Comeback

MBS Day Ahead: Should The Last Trend Get a Do-Over?

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Fight Back, But This is Still 'Bearish...

MBS RECAP: Range-Bound Volatility as Bonds Respond to Corporate...

MBS Week Ahead: Bonds Staging at 2019's Most Important Crossroads

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Broker, Marketing, DPA Tools; GSE Changes; Yield Curve, Employment...

Mortgage Rates Continue Much-Needed Recovery

Underwriting, Broker, ECOA, Free LPMI Products; Fire AND Flood...

Access to Conventional/Jumbo Credit Increased in October

Consumers Shaky Again on Whether it's a Good Time to Buy

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MBS RECAP: Sometimes Balance Sheet Expansion is Just Balance Sheet Expansion

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by Matthew Graham on October 08 2019, 5:26 PM

Bonds were stronger to start the domestic session after European bonds led a rally late in the overnight hours. Trading was flat during the domestic morning hours. A big miss is the producer price data was overlooked because--well.... producer prices...
MBS Day Ahead: 1 Day After Suggesting a New Pattern, Bonds Threaten to Break It

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by Matthew Graham on October 08 2019, 8:32 AM

In the day just passed, the bond market sold off in rather underwhelming fashion. There was no overt source of pessimism and the pace of movement lacked a sense of urgency. 10yr yields almost made it back into positive territory in the mid-morning hours...
MBS RECAP: MBS Lost Ground, Despite Outperforming Treasuries

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by Matthew Graham on October 07 2019, 5:51 PM

Bonds sold off today, but not excessively, and almost not at all if MBS had anything to say about it. Even Treasuries were fairly close to 'unchanged' to start the domestic session and were almost able to regain those levels after a few early...
MBS Week Ahead: Unlucky Number 7

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by Matthew Graham on October 07 2019, 9:24 AM

In the week just passed, the bond market rallied strongly. Weaker economic data--especially the two ISM reports--led the way, ensuring the middle 3 days of the week did most of the rally's heavy lifting. Momentum suddenly flattened out on Friday after...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Shrug at Lowest Jobless Rate in 50 Years

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by Matthew Graham on October 04 2019, 4:24 PM

The bureau of labor statistics called and mailed about 60k households a little less than a month ago to ask them about their jobs. Only 3.5% of the workers in those households reported that they wanted a job but didn't have one. That's the lowest...
MBS Day Ahead: Markets Asking Big Questions

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by Matthew Graham on October 04 2019, 8:29 AM

In the day just passed, the bond market rallied impressively following an exceptionally weak ISM services report. That was the 2nd of the two ISM purchasing managers' indices this week and both were more than merely "slightly off the mark."...
MBS RECAP: Another Weak ISM Report Raises The Stakes

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by Matthew Graham on October 03 2019, 5:25 PM

Today's ISM services data (technically "non-manufacturing") was one of the week's two biggest reports apart from tomorrow's jobs data. Like it's manufacturing-specific sibling, it came out much weaker than expected, and markets...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Looking For ISM Spillover. What's That?

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by Matthew Graham on October 03 2019, 9:21 AM

In the day just passed, bonds extended a faster-paced rally that began on Tuesday following the ISM Manufacturing data. It wouldn't be fair to say that traders woke up and said to themselves "you know what? I think I'm going to buy some more...
MBS RECAP: More Gains; More Potential Volatility Ahead

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by Matthew Graham on October 02 2019, 5:23 PM

The bond market had another solid day today, although that wasn't necessarily destined to be the case from the start. Yields were slightly higher in the first half of the overnight session and didn't begin to recover until equities futures moved...
MBS Day Ahead: Still Consolidating, But Now More Enthusiastically

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by Matthew Graham on October 02 2019, 9:28 AM

In the day just passed, the bond market improved by an amount that would be considered fairly strong compared to the previous session's closing levels. But when examined from intraday peak to trough in 10yr yields, the move was far more impressive...
MBS RECAP: Data Driven Reversal Delivers on Volatility Expections

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by Matthew Graham on October 01 2019, 5:25 PM

Today was fairly straightforward by the time the 10am ISM Manufacturing data came out. It was significantly weaker than expected (worst since 2009) and resulted in a fast bond rally with high volumes. We had been expecting this week to bring increased...
MBS Day Ahead: Volatility Risks Increase (Not What Mortgage Market Wants to Hear)

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by Matthew Graham on October 01 2019, 8:27 AM

In the day just passed, the bond market got off to a slow and stable start for the week. There was modest overnight weakness that carried over into the start of the domestic session, but a significantly weaker-than-expected Chicago PMI report helped bonds...
MBS RECAP: Slow but Strong Start to a Busy Week

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2019, 5:45 PM

Bonds were slightly weaker in the overnight session. European bonds set the tone early, potentially in response to Draghi comments on the need for fiscal stimulus. US yields followed, but never at a pace that anyone would consider "alarming."...
MBS Week Ahead: Range Breakout Guaranteed as Data and Calendar Collide

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2019, 9:53 AM

In the week just passed, the bond market committed to a perfectly sideways consolidation pattern after having moved down from the highest yields in more than a month. There were a few moderately relevant economic reports throughout the week and the bond...
MBS RECAP: Perfect Adherence to The Trend

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by Matthew Graham on September 27 2019, 8:46 PM

There's never a way to be 100% sure that a consolidation trend will continue to guide the highs and lows in the bond market for any certain amount of time, but sometimes it seems like it should be. This week and especially this morning were two such...

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Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Continue Much-Needed Recovery

Mortgage rates have been more willing to move higher than lower recently. While that may continue to be the case in the near-term future, there have been...
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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Fight Back, But This is Still...

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MBS RECAP: Range-Bound Volatility as Bonds Respond...

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Mortgage Rates Avoid More Pain, Even if Only For Today

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A securities expert told an audience at the National Association of Realtors' (NAR's) annual conference that cybercrimes against real estate agents and...
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MBS Week Ahead: Bonds Staging at 2019's Most Important...

1.90% has been the most important, most dangerous ceiling for 10yr Treasury yields ever since a nasty selling spree stalled out there exactly 2 months...
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NAR Survey Shows Buyers are Increasingly Older, Less...

The share of first-time buyers remains well below historic levels according to the National Association of Realtors' ® (NAR's) 2019 Profile of Home...
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MBS Day Ahead: Lowered Expectations

If you don't expect anything good to happen for the bond market for the next few months, I guarantee you won't be disappointed. If, however, you...
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Sales, Audit Tools; Vendors Raising Funds; 10-year...

As rumors swirl about Michael Bloomberg entering the race for president, MLOs are winding down for the year (a few have written to me saying that, after...
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Disaster Aftermath Can Make Losses Worse

The storm is over, the fires are out, but anyone who has survived a natural disaster, and that is more of us every year, knows that the problems are just...
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MBS RECAP: Big Bad Day; Yes, Trade Headlines Still...

It was a big, bad day for the bond market, although the size of the thing ended up getting pared down just a bit in the afternoon. Chalk that up to a counterpoint...
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Mortgage Rates Blasted by Trade Deal Progress

Mortgage rates surged higher at a rapid pace for the second time this week. Taken together, the jump is the biggest of its kind since the big rate spike...
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Affordability Improves Even as Appreciation Accelerates

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.80%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.46%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.89%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 105-05 (0-03)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 106-29 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 107-26 (0-00)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0.64%
|
Refinance Index -0.52%
|
Purchase Index 2.28%

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