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MBS RECAP: Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next...

MBS Day Ahead: Last Week's Comeback Was Nice, But Threats...

MBS RECAP: Record-Breaking Job Gains, But Bonds Ultimately Improve

MBS Day Ahead: Early Close and Another (Potentially) Record-Breaking...

MBS RECAP: Limited Reaction to Headlines and Fed Minutes

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Forbearance Plans Resume Downtrend After Last Week's Uptick

CFPB Proposes New Escrow Rule

Freddie Mac's Growth Slowed, Delinquencies Spiked in May

DPA, Leads, PMI Products; Investors Ruminate on Employment Data

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MBS Day Ahead: How Data Can Move Markets Even When It's Not Supposed To

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by Matthew Graham on June 03 2020, 9:23 AM

It's the first Wednesday of the month and thus time for ADP Employment data. The stated intention of this report is to predict the final revision of the official nonfarm payroll (NFP) count in the big jobs report that follows 2 days later. Because...
MBS RECAP: Here's The Only Reason Mortgage Rates Have Moved Lower Recently

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by Matthew Graham on June 02 2020, 3:11 PM

Here's The Only Reason Mortgage Rates Have Moved Lower Recently "Because they were so much higher than they should have been in March and April..." Seriously, that's the reason mortgage rates have been able to move lower even as Treasury...
MBS Day Ahead: MBS Have Followed Treasuries, But Rates Haven't Followed MBS

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by Matthew Graham on June 02 2020, 9:20 AM

Today is the lightest of the week in terms of scheduled market movers on the econ calendar (there really aren't any to speak of unless you count the New York ISM data and we barely do). In addition, bonds are fairly flat in the bigger picture. Point...
MBS RECAP: Timing of Today's Volatility Could Create Some Opportunity

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by Matthew Graham on June 01 2020, 2:57 PM

There's no way to predict the future for rates and markets, but there are occasionally tactical opportunities. Today's version involves lenders being forced to price rate sheets when MBS had just swung down to the lowest levels of the day. Prices have...
MBS Week Ahead: Can Bonds Confirm The Breakout?

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by Matthew Graham on June 01 2020, 8:47 AM

A resilient performance at the end of last week means that bonds have easily staked a claim to a sideways range that's been intact for more than 2 months now. We had been following a slightly negative trend in Treasuries (seen in the yellow lines...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Look to Challenge Trend With Powell on Deck

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by Matthew Graham on May 29 2020, 8:52 AM

The next Fed announcement is 1.5 weeks away and so it's time to start ramping up expectations for the details of the Fed's official QE announcement. But wait... Aren't they buying a ton of bonds already? Indeed, the Fed continues purchasing...
MBS Day Ahead: Why We're Watching Treasuries

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by Matthew Graham on May 28 2020, 9:14 AM

The market reaction to coronavirus made a mess of the relationship between Treasuries and MBS (and between MBS and mortgage rates for that matter). These disconnections can happen from time to time and when they do, we stop following trends in Treasuries...
MBS Day Ahead: Rising Rate Trend Intact, But Motivation is Required

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by Matthew Graham on May 27 2020, 9:17 AM

Today's first chart shows the trend we've been following in 10yr Treasury yields. It is pointed in an unfriendly direction (i.e. "up"), but at a fairly gentle pace in the bigger picture. Even then, such trends are by no means crystal...
MBS Week Ahead: Beatings Can Continue Until Market Morale Deteriorates

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by Matthew Graham on May 26 2020, 9:07 AM

No need to overcomplicate the current narrative: the overall financial market is attempting to balance the reopening of the economy with the risk of COVID resurgence, all the while receiving a boost from massive global stimulus efforts. No matter how...
MBS Day Ahead: Not Reading Too Much Into Things Ahead of 3.5-Day Weekend

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by Matthew Graham on May 22 2020, 9:37 AM

Treasuries started out stronger after overnight drama between China and Hong Kong caused a " risk-off " trade (i.e. sell stocks, buy bonds). MBS continue lagging Treasuries. What's up with that? The performance between MBS and Treasuries...
MBS Day Ahead: Two Potential Targets For Today's Potential Bond Rally

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by Matthew Graham on May 21 2020, 9:03 AM

Treasuries held onto yesterday's gains in the overnight session and are starting the day in slightly better shape (MBS are roughly unchanged). This means that 10yr yields continue adhering to a technical pattern we've been following for the past...
MBS Day Ahead: What is MBS 'Outperformance' And Why Are We Seeing It?

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by Matthew Graham on May 20 2020, 9:50 AM

I've been mentioning MBS outperformance and underperformance quite a bit recently, but what do these terms really mean and why do we care? First off, we always care about strength and weakness in mortgage bonds as they are the primary building block...
MBS Day Ahead: Trend is Not Our Friend For Now

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by Matthew Graham on May 19 2020, 9:17 AM

Yesterday was pretty rough for bond markets as 10yr yields rose the better part of 10bps in fairly short order. It was the worst day of selling in 2 months and it took us to the highest yields since mid April. To make matters worse, it followed what could...
MBS Day Ahead: Holiday-Shortened Week and Another Chance to Confirm Range

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by Matthew Graham on May 18 2020, 9:05 AM

Bond markets will close early this Friday and will remain fully closed next Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. 3.5-day weekends can often see a shift in trading patterns as investors account for an extra uncertainty due to an extra day and a half of...
MBS Day Ahead: Pieces Falling Into Place For Mortgage Market

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by Matthew Graham on May 15 2020, 9:17 AM

As recently as April 21st, the fate of the mortgage market was still highly uncertain and that uncertainty was readily apparent in the ridiculously wide gap between mortgage rates and their normal benchmarks. For instance, the average 30yr fixed rate...

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More From MND

MND NewsWire

CFPB Proposes New Escrow Rule

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (Bureau) today issued a notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) that would amend Regulation Z of the Truth-in-Lending...
MND NewsWire

Freddie Mac's Growth Slowed, Delinquencies Spiked...

Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 5.5 percent in May compared to a 14.3 percent gain...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Last Week's Comeback Was Nice, But...

Last week ended with a paradoxical reaction to a jobs report that was much stronger than expected. Although bonds did lose ground at first, they ended...
Pipeline Press

DPA, Leads, PMI Products; Investors Ruminate on Employment...

Here’s a blunt reminder of what can go dramatically wrong in a fireworks stand. And here’s a blunt email that I received over the weekend....
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Record-Breaking Job Gains, But Bonds Ultimately...

Record-Breaking Job Gains, But Bonds Ultimately Improve Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for the outright level of job creation and...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Huge Housing Rebound, All-Time Low Rates, But At What...

This week's economic data included the biggest-ever gain in Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing market. Meanwhile, mortgage rates pushed...
Pipeline Press

Anti-fraud, DPA, HMDA Products; Non-QM News in Primary...

Lenders continue to count the piles of doubloons they booked during another record-breaking month; will July be another? M&A deals are still simmering...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Early Close and Another (Potentially...

Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for the outright level of job creation (2.509m) and for the gap between job growth and forecasts....
Mortgage Rate Watch

Rates at All-Time Lows Ahead of Important Jobs Data

Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today, thus leaving the average lender at all-time lows for conventional 30yr fixed scenarios. It continues to...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Limited Reaction to Headlines and Fed Minutes

Limited Reaction to Headlines and Fed Minutes After a quiet trading day yesterday, today proved to be even quieter. That said, bonds were still willing...
MBS Commentary

Fed Meeting Minute Bullet Points: What's Yield...

The minutes from the most recent Fed meeting were released today. While there's not much left to be said when they've already been so clear about...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Economic Data Ramps Up Ahead of Week's...

After a very slow start on Monday, yesterday's month-end trading session proved to be more consequential for Treasuries with yields ultimately rising...
MND NewsWire

Purchase Apps Retreat Again as Inventory Dries Up

Applications for both refinancing and purchase mortgages retreated last week , pulling the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA's) Market Composite Index...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Surprisingly Quiet Quarter-End Trading....

Surprisingly Quiet Quarter-End Trading. No Objections Here The last trading day of any given month (especially if it's also the end of a quarter) can...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Best Month Ever For Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates managed another slight improvement today, which means the average lender is offering new all-time low rates for the 4th time this month...
MND NewsWire

Home Prices "Remarkably Stable" in April

Home prices continued to hold up on a national basis in April. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S...
Pipeline Press

Servicing, Inspection, Loss-mit Products; CFPB's...

Some days you don’t learn much, other days you learn a lot (skip the ad). We’ve learned that COVID is driving our economy, not fundamental...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Continue at All-Time Lows, But Caveats...

Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly lower today, bringing the average lender right in line with all-time lows . Averages aside, several lenders are...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Lock vs Float Considerations With Rates...

Lock vs Float Considerations With Rates at All-Time Lows Stocks and bond yields are still in holding patterns relative to early June volatility. Meanwhile...
MND NewsWire

Supreme Court Rules Single CFPB Director Unconstitutional

The Supreme Court, in a 5-4 decision along partisan lines, took a chunk out of the intentions the Dodd-Frank Act had for the Consumer Financial Protection...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 2.94%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.64%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.95%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 107-14 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-01 (-0-08)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 109-23 (-0-15)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -1.84%
|
Refinance Index -2.20%
|
Purchase Index -1.28%

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