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MBS Day Ahead: Biggest Economic Data of the Week; Bond Markets...

MBS RECAP: Sharply Sideways Day for Bond Markets

MBS MID-DAY: Grinding Back Toward Unchanged Amid Lack of Inspiration...

MBS Day Ahead: Wide Variety of Potential Motivations and a Retracement...

MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Try to Hold Gains After Ukraine-Inspired...

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No Big Spring Bounce for Housing Starts; Rates Higher Today, but Still Near Recent Lows; Mortgage Apps Improve

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MBS RECAP: Deceptive Data and Strong Auction Lift Bond Prices

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by Matthew Graham on March 26 2014, 4:07 PM

Today's market activity is a tale of two events: the morning's Durable Goods data and the afternoon's 5yr Treasury auction. Heading into the 8:30am Durable Goods release, bond markets were slightly weaker. This is a report that doesn't...
MBS MID-DAY: Holding Gains Ahead of 5yr Treasury Auction

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by Matthew Graham on March 26 2014, 12:04 PM

It's been a fairly uneventful, yet positive morning for bond markets. After coming into the domestic session in just slightly weaker territory, bonds got a boost from weaker-than-expected internals in the Durable Goods report. That means that while...
MBS Day Ahead: Important 5yr Treasury Auction; Ongoing Search for Inspiration

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by Matthew Graham on March 26 2014, 8:00 AM

In the days following last Wednesday's FOMC shake-up, bond markets have visibly lacked inspiration to do much of anything. That could be chalked up in some ways to a relative equilibrium on the part of the incoming data and events, but it could also...
MBS MID-DAY: Economic Data Fails to Inspire Much Market Movement

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by Matthew Graham on March 25 2014, 12:12 PM

A good thing to keep in mind about any data-based conclusion in financial markets is that details matter . This is true both in terms of the reference to market movement in the headline as well as several of the day's economic releases. For instance...
MBS Day Ahead: Busy Day for Data, Much of it Housing-Related

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by Matthew Graham on March 25 2014, 8:00 AM

Whereas yesterday got the week off to a slow start in terms of economic data, today makes up for it. There are two reports in the 9am time slot--both home price reports, and 2 in the 10am slot--Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales. Of the two time slots...
MBS RECAP: Sinking Stocks Help Bonds Hold Ground

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by Matthew Graham on March 24 2014, 4:46 PM

Bond markets are heading toward the end of the session very close to unchanged levels. This is a small accomplishment considering they began the day in weaker territory. Major sell-offs in global stock markets helped bonds find their footing, with Germany...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Bounce Back After Opening Weaker

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by Matthew Graham on March 24 2014, 12:19 PM

Bond markets began the day in weaker territory after a relatively uneventful overnight session. The losses were minimal and left both MBS and Treasuries well-contained by the post-FOMC range (Thursday and Friday basically). There hasn't been any significant...
MBS Week Ahead: Busy Week Including Econ Data, Fed Speakers, and Treasury Auctions

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by Matthew Graham on March 24 2014, 8:00 AM

On the one hand, this week's calendar of events is fairly well packed. On the other, it's spring break. While that may not sap the level of activity in markets in the same way that it does in--say--a school, it makes a difference. On top of whatever...
MBS RECAP: Solid, if Moderate Gains for MBS; What FOMC Announcement?

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by Matthew Graham on March 21 2014, 4:39 PM

Don't look now, but against a slightly longer-term backdrop, bond markets merely continued in the same old ranges this week, despite being pushed nearer the weak end of that range by the FOMC Forecasts. To be clear, that's FORECASTS , not Yellen...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Moderately Stronger; Uneventful Session so far

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by Matthew Graham on March 21 2014, 12:38 PM

We're heading into an afternoon that's likely to see more bets being made on Basketball games than in financial markets. Bonds in particular are on track for one of their 5 slowest days of the year. That said, the price action has been skewed...
MBS Day Ahead: Bond Markets Looking For Exit; Meaningless Existence Without Data

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by Matthew Graham on March 21 2014, 8:00 AM

Apart from April options expiry in Treasuries, there's really not anything to trade on today for bond markets. Wednesday's Fed forecast speedbump was the big mover, and there's little reason for volatility apart from economic data that is...
MBS RECAP: MBS Outperform to End Near Unchanged Levels

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by Matthew Graham on March 20 2014, 5:37 PM

While yesterday was a surprise due to changes in Fed forecasts, today was anything but --at least if you bought in to the notion that yesterday's sell-off was a mathematical event based on markets adjusting present day trading levels to long-term...
MBS MID-DAY: Calm Morning for Bonds, if Slightly Weaker

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by Matthew Graham on March 20 2014, 12:57 PM

The day is playing out perfectly in line with our discussion in The Day Ahead . Because of Yellen's candor in conjunction with the mathematically simple adjustment to trading levels yesterday, there's little need to continue experiencing volatility...
MBS Day Ahead: Rock and Hard Place for MBS; Solace in Treasuries

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by Matthew Graham on March 20 2014, 8:00 AM

For a full recap of yesterday's bond market sell-off, read this . For a synopsis, read this: Bond markets sold off yesterday, not so much because of the uncertainty introduced by the new verbiage in the FOMC Announcement, but rather due to the Fed...
MBS RECAP: Fed Forecasts Blindside Markets; Yellen Rips Bandaid Off

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by Matthew Graham on March 19 2014, 4:59 PM

As expected, today's FOMC Announcement was every bit the snoozer it should have been. We knew qualitative guidance was likely to replace the unemployment threshold and that tapering would remain in place. Far less expected were the changes in the...

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