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MBS MID-DAY: Moderately Weaker, MBS Underperform After Senate...

MBS Day Ahead: Bond Markets Hoping For Technical Support, Fearing...

MBS RECAP: Slightly Resilient, if Exceptionally Calm Day for...

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Mortgage Rates Pause Near 2-Month Highs; 5/3rd Exiting Wholesale; Fannie Housing Survey; Housing Scorecard Examines Principal Reductions

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MBS MID-DAY: Bond Improve on Overnight Gains; MBS Lagging Treasuries

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by Matthew Graham on February 18 2014, 12:01 PM

Treasuries were slightly stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields falling just over a bp. They've moved another 2-3bps lower as the morning progressed with most of the movement seen between data releases (as opposed to the few minutes immediately...
MBS Week Ahead: Housing Data and FOMC Minutes

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by Matthew Graham on February 18 2014, 7:00 AM

Bond markets begin the holiday-shortened still waiting for a reason to do anything but merely continue in the same mildly negative trend. Said trend has carried rates moderately higher after an even bigger move lower throughout January. These two trends...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Drift Into 3-day Weekend; MBS Underperform

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by Matthew Graham on February 14 2014, 6:46 PM

Bond markets limped across the finish line near the lowest levels of the week. As expected, there was no major drama and the only real unpleasantness was the moderate underperformance on the part of MBS due to a heavy day of origination supply. Even then...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Weaker All Morning; Cue The Drift

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by Matthew Graham on February 14 2014, 12:13 PM

With and without this morning's economic data, bond markets have erred on the side of weakness so far today. The only report significantly out of line with forecasts--a super weak, but possibly weather-related read on Industrial Production-- failed...
MBS Day Ahead: Bond Markets Try to Stay Safe Ahead of 3-Day Weekend

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by Matthew Graham on February 14 2014, 7:00 AM

After today's heavy snowfall in New York turned to rain this afternoon, it's now turning back into snow in the wee hours, scheduled to deposit another 3-7 inches. For MBS trading, this type of weather takes a toll on participation, especially...
MBS RECAP: Half-Hearted Rally Following Weak Retail Sales

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by Matthew Graham on February 13 2014, 4:20 PM

On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the best case scenario for bond markets, today was 6 . It probably stood very little chance to be much more than a 7 or an 8, but a very real chance to be a 2-3. In other words, we dodged a bullet , but remain under fire...
MBS MID-DAY: Cautious Improvement After Weaker Data

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by Matthew Graham on February 13 2014, 11:56 AM

Bond markets were reasonably stronger overnight, mostly by way of consolidating the past three days of weakness. Weaker economic data (Retail Sales and Jobless Claims) furthered that cause, but not resoundingly. 10yr yields are floating just above their...
MBS Day Ahead: First Economic Data This Week; Last Treasury Auction

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by Matthew Graham on February 13 2014, 7:00 AM

Today's combination of events is seen from time to time on the Thursday of slower weeks. One component is the first major appearance of economic data of the week. While we've had a few 3rd tier indicators so far, it's been nothing on the scale...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Tumble Despite Lack of Data. Here's Why

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by Matthew Graham on February 12 2014, 4:23 PM

Today's calendar of economic events was empty . There wasn't even much by way of potential market movers to evaluate. Instead, bond markets were left to their own devices and thus able to convey some of their innate momentum and post-Yellen reaction...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Weaker; Pressure from Europe and Auctions

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by Matthew Graham on February 12 2014, 12:21 PM

This morning's first update on MBS Live noted that despite overnight press crediting China for prompting bond market weakness, it was in fact European markets that dragged Treasuries toward weaker levels. The primary culprit was an inflation report...
MBS Day Ahead: Bond Market Rally at Crossroads; Limited Data; 10yr Auction

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by Matthew Graham on February 12 2014, 7:00 AM

Wednesday could be somewhat interesting for bond markets. At the moment, we'll have to focus exclusively on Treasuries as MBS rolled last night, throwing off the shorter term technical merit (a monthly occurrence that suggests Treasuries as the technical...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Were Hoping For More Help From Yellen

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by Matthew Graham on February 11 2014, 4:53 PM

After Friday's initial NFP-inspired volatility, bond markets had settled into a very narrow sideways range in anticipation of the next big piece of guidance. The leading suspect among potential guidance givers was today's Congressional Testimony...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Markedly Weaker After Yellen Testimony

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by Matthew Graham on February 11 2014, 12:21 PM

If there was any doubt as to the market-moving potential of today's Congressional testimony from Janet Yellen, it was quickly cleared up this morning. Well before she began her question and answer session, the mere release of her prepared remarks...
MBS Day Ahead: Bond Markets on Verge of Breaking 2014 Trend

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by Matthew Graham on February 11 2014, 7:00 AM

Bond markets are on the verge of disavowing their allegiance to higher prices and lower yields that has, thus far, characterized most of the new year. This resolution picked up steam into the beginning of February when the news was awash with "emerging...
MBS RECAP: MBS End at Best Levels, Outperforming Treasuries

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by Matthew Graham on February 10 2014, 4:58 PM

Today is good one to speak about MBS and Treasuries separately, as they made fairly dissimilar moves. On the Treasury front (which speaks more to the broader trends in interest rates), the day was a flat extension of Friday afternoon's flatness. At...

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