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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Ponder Reversal as Month-End Approaches...

MBS RECAP: After More Nuclear Headlines, Bonds Punt

MBS Day Ahead: Despite North Korea Headlines, Same Showdown on...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Generally Hold Ground, Complicating The Outlook

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Training and Events; Freddie Mac's K-Deals; Top QC Issues

Rates Show Resilience But Not Without Help

Rates Rise but Refi Share Unchanged

UI Praises HARP Benefits, Lessons

Agency Conforming Changes; Market Exec on Cost to Originate

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Resilience Rates Had Help; Refi Share Unchanged; HARP Reflections; Equity Disparity

Published: 9/22/2017

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MBS RECAP: "Nice" Rally But Lacking in Substance

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by Matthew Graham on August 23 2017, 5:26 PM

If there were a magical ratio comparing the overall movement in bond markets to the relevance of the factors motivating the movement, it would be off the charts with today's rally. A 4.72bp improvement in 10yr yields is nothing to shake a stick at...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Trying to Turn Recent Floor Into a Ceiling

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by Matthew Graham on August 23 2017, 9:25 AM

Coincidentally, yesterday's Day Ahead talked about "pivot points." Now today, we see a prime example of a pivot point in action. Although I labeled it as 2.215% yesterday, let's simplify the conversation by using 2.22% today. A hallmark...
MBS RECAP: With Nothing Better to Follow, Bonds Took Cues From Stocks

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by Matthew Graham on August 22 2017, 4:23 PM

I'm not shy about dismissing the conventional wisdom of bond yields and stock prices following each other. We're talking about some iteration of the quintessential quip: "buy stocks, sell bonds," or vice versa. Over the shorter time...
MBS Day Ahead: What's a Pivot Point? Which One to Watch?

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by Matthew Graham on August 22 2017, 10:32 AM

We have a dedicated primer on pivot points here . But let's look at a timely example with the pivot points we've been tracking in recent weeks. Actually, only one of the two has been actively discussed, the other is both newer and older (it was...
MBS RECAP: Was the Eclipse a Market Mover?

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by Matthew Graham on August 21 2017, 4:47 PM

It's a good thing financial media outlets aren't too shy about covering topics outside the financial sphere because without the eclipse, there would have been nothing to talk about today. Volume and volatility dropped off a cliff, abruptly. In...
MBS Day Ahead: Nothing to do With The Eclipse

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by Matthew Graham on August 21 2017, 9:56 AM

Welcome! Here is a safe haven from all of the eclipse talk. It won't be mentioned at all in this article. Never mind that it's in the title and the first 3 sentences, because we're about to move on. Bond markets begin another "summertime"...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Manage to Close 'Unchanged' Despite Some Volatility

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by Matthew Graham on August 18 2017, 8:20 PM

In the Day Ahead, we discussed bond traders' probable goals regarding keeping things as calm as possible. This depended on unexpected headlines and movements in external markets. Either of those were capable of throwing curveballs , and both threw...
MBS Day Ahead: Most Traders Thinking "Don't Rock The Boat"

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by Matthew Graham on August 18 2017, 7:34 AM

A maritime analogy for bond trading in the Summertime... In the summer months especially, there's a boat-friendly baseline weather pattern offshore. Lest you think that's a generality that doesn't merit your full confidence, check out the...
MBS RECAP: Introducing The "Snow Cohn"

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by Matthew Graham on August 17 2017, 6:01 PM

What do you get when bond markets embark on a snowball rally due to headlines concerning Trump's Economic Advisor Gary Cohn? A delicious "Snow Cohn," of course (my team of writers assured me that was worth what I paid). In all seriousness...
MBS Day Ahead: Trader Ghost Town Greases Skids For Volatility

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by Matthew Graham on August 17 2017, 10:22 AM

With this morning's econ data already out and having no effect on bond markets, the only other report for the week is tomorrow morning's Consumer Sentiment--admittedly not the biggest market mover in the world. The backdrop for any potential volatility...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Rallied on Trump Tweet Before it Ever Came Out

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by Matthew Graham on August 16 2017, 5:28 PM

Today looked like it would be all about waiting for the Fed Minutes to see if there were any surprises. That plan began in fairly good shape, with only a mild rally following weaker residential construction data. By mid-day, bonds were staging near their...
MBS Day Ahead: How Much Might Today's Fed Minutes Matter?

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by Matthew Graham on August 16 2017, 9:32 AM

Today's biggest calendar item is the release of the FOMC Minutes at 2pm. The Minutes provide synopsis of the meeting that took place in the 2 days leading up to the official Fed announcement in late July. That announcement was very little changed...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Threaten Momentum Shift

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by Matthew Graham on August 15 2017, 4:15 PM

Today was mostly about North Korean de-escalation, and somewhat about stronger economic data. If you haven't heard 43 times already, North Korea graciously decided to hold off on their little plan to nuke Guam (though the little plan of marching up...
MBS Day Ahead: The Blessing and Curse of The Geopolitical Risk Cycle

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by Matthew Graham on August 15 2017, 9:08 AM

Geopolitical risk is one of the most intuitive market movers for bonds. Threats of nuclear attacks from North Korea (as well as the rhetorical response from the US) are a classic example of geopolitical risk. Were there to be an actual nuclear attack...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Lose Ground on Various Headlines

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by Matthew Graham on August 14 2017, 5:16 PM

Bond markets lost ground today, with all of the weakness arriving during the overnight session. The weakness was driven by a general "risk-on" move in financial markets, which tends to favor stocks at the expense of bonds. In today's case...

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MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: After More Nuclear Headlines, Bonds Punt

Who knows how today's trading would have unfolded absent the overnight headlines that North Korea was planning to test an ICBM with a Hydrogen warhead...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Rates Show Resilience But Not Without Help

Mortgage rates held their ground yesterday. That was a refreshing development given the abrupt move higher over the past 2 weeks and a relatively threatening...
MND NewsWire

Rates Rise but Refi Share Unchanged

Refinancing accounted for 35 percent of all mortgages originated in August, unchanged from July, but down from 47 percent at the beginning of the year...
MND NewsWire

UI Praises HARP Benefits, Lessons

Sometimes government gets it right. The Urban Institute (UI) clearly thinks that the Home Affordable Refinance Program, at least in its second iteration...
Pipeline Press

Agency Conforming Changes; Market Exec on Cost to Originate

Welcome to the autumn equinox. How about this? There have been no public CFPB enforcement actions or consent orders dealing with QM, ATR, or TRID. Zero...
MND NewsWire

Home Equity Increases, Average Gains Vary Wildly

Rising home prices continue to fuel fast growth in household equity. CoreLogic said on Thursday that owners of mortgaged properties in the U.S. (roughly...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Despite North Korea Headlines, Same...

With a dearth of economic data on the calendar, bond traders were set to take cues from other traders, technical levels, and perhaps a big-ticket headline...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Generally Hold Ground, Complicating...

In a sick way, it would have been easier to see additional weakness in bond markets today. At least that would have jived with past precedent of "course...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Find Some Support

Mortgage rates have been higher almost exclusively for the past 2 weeks. Yesterday was no exception as the Federal Reserve released a rate hike forecast...
MND NewsWire

3 Trends That Will Drive The Mortgage Market in 2018...

Hard to believe it's already that time again, but Freddie Mac's Economic and Housing Research Group are out with their forecast for 2018. The headline...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Bond Sell-Off's Grinch-Like Heart...

Remember when the Grinch's heart grew 3 sizes? No, I mean, do you really remember watching that movie for the first time and the feeling you had when...
MND NewsWire

Pacific Division Prices Down in FHFA Report

Home prices increased by 0.2 percent from June to July according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA's) House Price Index (HPI). The previously...
Pipeline Press

False Claims Act Penalty; Lender's Disaster News;...

I am currently in South Carolina, and as it turns out, no other U.S. region is more populous than the South Atlantic United States (Washington, D.C., Delaware...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Ugly September Gets Uglier After The Fed

Today's Fed announcement wasn't appreciably different than most economists, traders, and armchair analysts expected. They confirmed the inception...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Highest in More Than a Month After Fed

Mortgage rates rose today following the announcement and--more importantly--the Fed's updated economic projections . The Fed holds 8 meetings a year. They...
MBS Commentary

Differences Between Current and Previous FOMC Statements...

(Additions underlined, deletions struck through) Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in JuneJuly indicates that the labor...
MND NewsWire

Existing Home Sales Distorted by Harvey

August was yet another disappointing month for existing home sales. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) says those sales were down for the...
Pipeline Press

Uniform Closing Dataset (UCD) Info; FINRA; Fed Announcement

UCD Information As announced in September 2016,the Uniform Closing Dataset (UCD) mandate remains September 25, 2017Lenders who can deliver the UCD are...
MND NewsWire

Mortgage Apps Tanked Last Week. Was it Rates' Fault...

Overall mortgage application activity diminished significantly during the week ended September 15, but refinancing continued to hold its own, representing...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Ready to Move Either Direction...

Much like an actor can get lost in a role and take things a bit too far, bond markets played the part of "a market undergoing a correction" a...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.97%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.27%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.20%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 107-13 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-03 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 110-20 (0-04)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 3.27%
|
Refinance Index 5.05%
|
Purchase Index 1.43%

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