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MBS RECAP: Respectable Recovery After Morning Drama

MBS Day Ahead: Overnight Losses Provide Reminder About Complacency...

MBS RECAP: Stronger Case For Stability, But Not Complacency

MBS Day Ahead: Trying to Set a New Thursday Trend

MBS RECAP: No Reaction to Fed Minutes (Or Anything Else For That...

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MBS Day Ahead: Litmus Test For Rate Ceiling; Why MBS Charts Look Terrible Today

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by Matthew Graham on March 10 2021, 10:02 AM

2021's rate spike is big enough and has been going on long enough that there is widespread speculation about how much worse it could get. While it is true that more pain would only increase the odds of a bounce, it's also true that we've seen...
MBS RECAP: Wednesday's 10yr Auction Could Cast a Big Vote on a Bounce

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by Matthew Graham on March 09 2021, 4:16 PM

Wednesday's 10yr Auction Could Cast a Big Vote on a Bounce With bonds coming into the session in much stronger shape, and with yields holding underneath recent highs at 1.62% for almost 2 weeks now, it's fair to start wondering if 1.62% is as...
MBS Day Ahead: Strong Start; Can We Talk About a Bounce Now?

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by Matthew Graham on March 09 2021, 9:58 AM

Much like February 26th, overnight strength in the bond market allows us to ask the same obvious question: "is this the bounce?" Much like Feb 26th, the answer is definitely maybe. As of right now, we'd need a much bigger rally to even get...
MBS RECAP: 3-Day Weekend for Volatility; Waiting on Supply

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by Matthew Graham on March 08 2021, 3:38 PM

3-Day Weekend for Volatility; Waiting on Supply After Friday's bond market rout, today's relatively calm trading data stood in stark contrast. On one hand, it's nice not to see losses accelerate further. On the other hand, it would have been...
MBS Week Ahead: Weak Range Persists; Minimal Impact From Stimulus Passage

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by Matthew Graham on March 08 2021, 10:04 AM

Over the past 3-4 months, the prospect of fiscal stimulus has done major damage to the bond market. It wouldn't have been a surprise to see more weakness this morning due to the confirmation that the full $1.9 trillion made it through the senate ...
MBS RECAP: Huge Jobs Report, Logical Weakness, and a Nice Bounce, But...

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by Matthew Graham on March 05 2021, 5:28 PM

Huge Jobs Report, Logical Weakness, and a Nice Bounce, But... Bonds did quite well today considering Powell's endorsement of higher rates (yesterday) combined with this morning's significantly stronger jobs report. Most of the push back was seen...
MBS Day Ahead: Huge Jobs Report; Bonds Weaker, But Surprisingly Resilient to Start

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by Matthew Graham on March 05 2021, 10:30 AM

Today began with Nonfarm Payrolls coming in at 379k vs 182k forecast. Last month's numbers were revised up to 166k from 49k. The unemployment rate ticked down a hair without being offset by a drop in the labor force participation rate. The hourly...
MBS RECAP: Why Bonds Tanked After Powell (And Why It Was No Surprise)

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by Matthew Graham on March 04 2021, 4:19 PM

Powell Does Exactly What He Was Supposed To (And Bonds Didn't Like It) From this AM: "some recent analysis has GREATLY overestimated the Fed's willingness to "twist."" In simpler terms, there was some buzz about Powell saying...
Why Bond Yields Spiked After Powell's Speech Today

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by Matthew Graham on March 04 2021, 2:57 PM

There seems to be a fair amount of surprise and confusion surrounding today's bond market sell-off in response to Fed Chair Powell's Q&A with the WSJ. First off, this wasn't a Q&A so much as a PSA to address some fairly far-fetched...
MBS Day Ahead: Big Risk That Powell Disappoints Bonds By Being Honest

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by Matthew Graham on March 04 2021, 9:29 AM

Monday and Tuesday brought a stronger start for bonds and, with it, hopes that a broader bounce was in the works. Wednesday dashed those hopes and intensified focus on today's livestream Q&A with Fed Chair Powell. Other central banks have more...
MBS RECAP: MBS Outperform, But Bonds Fail To Confirm The Bounce

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by Matthew Graham on March 03 2021, 3:51 PM

MBS Outperform, But Bonds Fail To Confirm The Bounce Tuesday's gains increased odds that a friendly bounce was in the works, but overnight and AM weakness put an end to the optimism. Frustratingly, there weren't any great scapegoats. Data was...
MBS Day Ahead: Early Weakness Means Failure to Confirm Friendly Bounce

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by Matthew Graham on March 03 2021, 9:30 AM

Bonds had a great day yesterday--not so much because the rally covered a ton of ground, but rather because it helped build a case for the end of the more abrupt selling pressure seen in February. The hope was (and still is, to some extent), that March...
MBS RECAP: Much Better Day For Bonds. Dare We Discuss It?

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by Matthew Graham on March 02 2021, 4:25 PM

Much Better Day For Bonds. Dare We Discuss It? A fairly flat morning gave way to an afternoon rally, especially for MBS. 10yr yields made "lower highs" for the 3rd day in a row today. Getting "hopeful" has been dangerous for a month...
MBS Day Ahead: Here's The New Short-Term Trend to Watch

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by Matthew Graham on March 02 2021, 9:34 AM

- The absence of stronger gains this week means bonds remain inside their short-term uptrend (see chart) - 100% focus on UMBS 2.5 coupon ( why? ) - "lower high" yield yesterday and again so far today (keeps hope alive), but... - Conversely,...
MBS RECAP: Too Strong to Give Up Hope. Too Weak to Rest Easy

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by Matthew Graham on March 01 2021, 3:57 PM

Too Strong to Give Up Hope. Too Weak to Rest Easy - New week, new month, new chance for yields to confirm a ceiling after last week's rout - Mixed results for bonds today with early weakness and a late bounce (especially for MBS) - Very poor liquidity...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.29%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.75%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.33%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-21 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 110-19 (0-05)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 111-13 (-0-03)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.51%
|
Refinance Index -5.12%
|
Purchase Index -100.00%

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