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MBS RECAP: Surprise Snowball Rally as Stocks Swoon Over Global Risks

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by Matthew Graham on September 20 2021, 4:18 PM

Surprise Snowball Rally as Stocks Swoon Over Global Risks When it comes to stocks vs bonds, pundits generally give too much credit to one side for movement in the other. In fact, on days with big movement in both markets, it's not uncommon to see...
MBS Morning: What is Evergrande and Why Do Bonds Care?

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by Matthew Graham on September 20 2021, 9:53 AM

Evergrande is a Chinese real estate company that has been circling the drain for months. During that time, press reports increasingly suggest that Evergrande's collapse could have some measure of systemic impact given the vast amount of money it owes...
MBS RECAP: Traders Move to Sidelines Ahead of Fed Announcement

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by Matthew Graham on September 17 2021, 4:33 PM

Traders Move to Sidelines Ahead of Fed Announcement September's big Fed announcement doesn't hit until next Wednesday, but it's not too early for markets to freak out about it a little bit. The fear is expressed in the form of a move to the...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Testing Weakest Levels in 2 Months

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by Matthew Graham on September 17 2021, 10:07 AM

The headline is a bit dramatic, but not untrue. 10yr yields were as high as 1.351 yesterday--just a moderate day of weakness away from the 2-month high of 1.385 seen at the start of last week. Before that, there were two other bounces in similar territory...
MBS RECAP: Uneventful Afternoon After Strong Data Sends Yields Higher

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by Matthew Graham on September 16 2021, 3:54 PM

Uneventful Afternoon After Strong Data Sends Yields Higher Today's key development was the duo of much stronger economic reports at 8:30am (Philly Fed and Retail Sales). Indeed, this accounted for the only interesting moments of the day. 5 minutes...
MBS Day Ahead: Starting on The Back Foot After Stronger Retail Sales

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by Matthew Graham on September 16 2021, 9:08 AM

Bonds are starting the day on the back foot as Retail Sales rose 0.7% despite a median forecast of -0.8. The Philly Fed numbers also surged past 18.8 forecasts to the tune of 30.7--decisive victories for economic data on both fronts. Bonds are reacting...
MBS RECAP: Sideways Vibes Won't Give Up Just Yet

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by Matthew Graham on September 15 2021, 4:08 PM

Sideways Vibes Won't Give Up Just Yet Bonds made a move yesterday with yields breaking below the lower boundary of the prevailing consolidation range. This type of breakout is a positive sign, generally, but it requires confirmation from the following...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Trying to Confirm Range Breakout

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by Matthew Graham on September 15 2021, 9:57 AM

Yesterday's most notable accomplishment for the bond market was the breakout of the prevailing consolidation range (aka "pennant," to use a technical term). We might have hesitated to read anything into this had it not been for elevated...
2021's Big Bad Mortgage Fee Hikes Have Been Removed! (Sort Of...)

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by Matthew Graham on September 14 2021, 7:04 PM

Earlier this year, the FHFA and Treasury amended Treasury's preferred stock repurchase agreements (PSPAs) to put limits on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (collectively, the GSEs). These limits resulted in widespread fee increases for several categories...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Rally After CPI Gives Fed The Week Off

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by Matthew Graham on September 14 2021, 4:13 PM

Bonds Rally After CPI Gives Fed The Week Off Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was one of the only big ticket economic reports left before next week's Fed announcement, and perhaps the only one that could have meaningfully impacted the Fed's...
MBS Day Ahead: Tamer Inflation Makes Next Week's Fed Less Scary

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by Matthew Graham on September 14 2021, 9:34 AM

Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was one of the only big ticket economic reports left before next week's Fed announcement, and perhaps the only one that could have meaningfully impacted the Fed's decision-making process. Granted, that would...
MBS RECAP: Quiet Summertime Monday Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger

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by Matthew Graham on September 13 2021, 4:20 PM

Quiet Summertime Monday Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger Treasuries have experienced more of the volatility in the bond market than MBS recently. That makes sense given last week's auction cycle and the ongoing glut of corporate bond issuance. Volume...
MBS Week Ahead: Stronger Start Despite Charts; Some Data This Week, But Fed Day Remains in Focus

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by Matthew Graham on September 13 2021, 10:06 AM

There is a smattering of data in the week ahead with Tuesday's CPI and Thursday's Retail Sales reports being the headliners. Data is merely a "potential" market mover though. Next week's Fed announcement is an "almost certain"...
MBS RECAP: Bond Weakness Reinforces The Consolidation Pattern

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by Matthew Graham on September 10 2021, 4:00 PM

Bond Weakness Reinforces The Consolidation Pattern Bonds were weaker overnight and the selling trend continued fairly steadily throughout the day. The only exception was a bigger yield spike that coincided with (but wasn't necessarily caused by) the...
MBS Day Ahead: Range-Bound Risks as Rally Hits The Floor

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by Matthew Graham on September 10 2021, 9:26 AM

Bonds are starting the day in moderately weaker territory. In so doing, 10yr yields are rejecting the opportunity to break below the 1.30% technical level. Notably, they rose above 1.30% just before the 3pm close yesterday (the time of day that holds...

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