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MBS Day Ahead: Clear Reaction to Presidential Debate, But There's...

MBS RECAP: Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep...

MBS Day Ahead: Presidential Debate Could Offer Hints at Bonds'...

MBS RECAP: Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range?

MBS Week Ahead: Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range?

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MBS RECAP: Here's What's Up With Today's Big Reaction To The Fed

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2020, 3:42 PM

Has Everything Changed After Powell Speech? Powell's speech was the only Fed communication on the calendar today, but they surprised markets by dropping a policy change on their website. Suddenly, the journalistic coverage of today's Powell speech...
MBS Day Ahead: Is a New Inflation Framework Good Or Bad For Rates?

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2020, 8:51 AM

If you don't want to read to the end to get the answer posed in the headline, here is a spoiler: Yes, a new framework is both good and bad for bonds. It's good because the things the Fed must do in order to promote inflation are generally good...
MBS RECAP: LLPA Impact vs Powell Speech. Time to Lock?

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by Matthew Graham on August 26 2020, 4:21 PM

LLPA Impact vs Powell Speech. Time to Lock? Much has been made (by news media... not bond market participants) of Powell's Jackson Hole (virtual) speech on Thursday. After all, a rethink of the Fed's "framework" sounds like a big deal...
MBS Day Ahead: The New Showdown In The Bond Market

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by Matthew Graham on August 26 2020, 9:58 AM

There's a global pandemic. On the one hand, it seems to be improving. On the other, it's responsible for a potentially permanent shift in the US labor market. On the one hand the federal government is spending trillions on stimulus, thereby putting...
MBS RECAP: New Curveball as LLPA Just Got Delayed Until Dec 1

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by Matthew Graham on August 25 2020, 4:21 PM

New Curveball as LLPA Just Got Delayed Until Dec 1 There are two huddle videos today. The newest and most relevant one appears below as normal. It references the old one which you can find here if you like. Why the change? Between the time of recording...
MBS Day Ahead: After Last Week's Victory, Bonds Are Already Facing a New Challenger

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by Matthew Graham on August 25 2020, 10:08 AM

Any conversation about momentum, victory, or defeat in the bond market must be prefaced with the acknowledgment that we're dealing with what would historically be a very narrow range that's very close to record lows. In other words, there's...
MBS RECAP: More Defensive But Not Without Hope

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by Matthew Graham on August 24 2020, 3:49 PM

More Defensive But Not Without Hope 2 weeks ago, a heavy slate of supply contributed to small-scale panic in the bond market. Tensions eased last week and technical ceilings were confirmed. With another slate of Treasury supply kicking off on Tuesday...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Carving Out a Low Range With No Concern Over Stocks

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by Matthew Graham on August 24 2020, 10:21 AM

Last week did a nice job of confirming a ceiling in Treasury yields after the previous week saw rates move sharply higher. At the same time the S&P hit a new record high and covid numbers continued to level off. Now at the start of the current week...
MBS RECAP: A Week of Reassurance For The Bond Market

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by Matthew Graham on August 21 2020, 5:17 PM

A Week of Reassurance For The Bond Market Last week saw the first major break higher after a calm, sustained moved toward lower rates that began in mid-June. This week had a chance to confirm the drama or push back against it. Thankfully, it was the latter...
MBS Day Ahead: Now We're Getting Somewhere

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by Matthew Graham on August 21 2020, 9:19 AM

Coronavirus obviously ushered in an era of record low rates. The ongoing challenges and uncertainties are fairly well understood. They have a wide spectrum of possible outcomes. As far as we can see at the moment, the baseline outcome involves permanent...
MBS RECAP: MBS Underperforming Treasuries, But Broader Trends Are Decent

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by Matthew Graham on August 20 2020, 4:49 PM

MBS Underperforming Treasuries, But Broader Trends Are Decent The mortgage market continues coping with the combination of last week's LLPA news and a generally high level of supply. One hurts bond prices relative to Treasuries. The other hurts mortgage...
MBS Day Ahead: Let's Check In With European Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on August 20 2020, 10:01 AM

Realistically, Europe has been as big of a friend to US bond markets as the Fed. If it weren't for Greek concerns and the mounting systemic crisis, US bond market pain in 2010/11 would have been much worse. That crisis gave US bond market participants...
MBS RECAP: Fed Minutes and LLPA Hangover Hurting Rates

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by Matthew Graham on August 19 2020, 4:43 PM

Fed Minutes and LLPA Hangover Hurting Rates Mortgage rates have been quite rebellious in 2020 when it comes to the guidance offered by the elders that typically tell them what to do. Treasuries and MBS may be saying "go lower" but rates have...
MBS Day Ahead: Let's Clarify Mortgage Rates "Reconnection" to Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on August 19 2020, 9:02 AM

I talked yesterday about rates "reconnecting with the bond market," and that's an assertion that needs some more clarification on several levels. By way of background, the original disconnection refers to rates remaining much higher than...
MBS RECAP: Rates Are Reconnecting With Bond Market Movement

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by Matthew Graham on August 18 2020, 4:55 PM

Rates Are Reconnecting With Bond Market Movement After last week's LLPA news, lenders pulled back pricing for obvious reasons and only gradually lowered their defenses. As of today, we are finally seeing that process level-off, which means any major...

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Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Still Sideways to Slightly Lower

The average mortgage lender continues to offer top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates in the "high 2% to low 3%" neighborhood. Exactly where any given...
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Perfect Storm For Home Prices?

The growth of home prices nationally continued to accelerate in July according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index...
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MBS Day Ahead: Presidential Debate Could Offer Hints...

The absence of volatility in the bond market cannot be overemphasized at the moment, or during most any moment since mid August. Rather than drift toward...
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MBS RECAP: Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range?

Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range? The end of the week brings the first Friday of the month (of October!) and thus the big jobs report--the economic...
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More New Homes Bought With Non-Conventional Financing...

Non-conventional lending enjoyed a substantial increase in its share of the market for financing new home purchases in 2019. The National Association of...
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MBS Week Ahead: Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range...

The end of the week brings the first Friday of the month (of October!) and thus the big jobs report--the economic data that has ruled all others throughout...
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Thank you to those who wrote commenting about the Yelp study showing that 164,000 businesses across our nation have closed since March . “Bouncing...
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MBS RECAP: Treasuries, MBS Back on Same Page After...

Treasuries, MBS Back on Same Page After 2 Weeks On Different Paths MBS prices were generally losing ground, albeit at a modest pace, over the past two...
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Stellar Housing Data; Rates Inching Lower

Mortgage Rate Update Considering this week's generally positive drift in rates, we shouldn't expect lenders to get less busy any time soon. In recent weeks...
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Forbearances Ending at a Faster Pace

Black Knight said its weekly forbearance survey found the number of mortgages in active forbearance decreasing at an accelerated rate. Those mortgages...
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MBS Day Ahead: Treasuries, MBS Back on Same Page After...

Bear with me while I'm forced to crank up the power on my analytical microscope in order to find anything interesting to say about one of the least...
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70% of Freddie's Portfolio Suggests Refis Aren't...

Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 27.7 percent in August compared to a 20.0 percent gain...
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FHFA's Official Report on Q2 Mortgage Relief Numbers

In its 2 nd quarter Foreclosure Prevention and Refinance Report the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) says it has helped almost 4.7 million distressed...
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TGIF! Do Fridays mean as much as they did up until mid-March? Yes! Well, maybe. How about some non-mortgage stuff? There is, after all, life outside of...
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MBS RECAP: MBS Outperform; Bonds Stay Defiantly Sideways...

MBS Outperform; Bonds Stay Defiantly Sideways Overall The stock market tried a few different moves on the bond market today and while correlation is still...
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New Home Sales Crush Forecasts, Soaring to 14-Year...

Once again new home sales exceeded expectations, this time by a lot. Sales of newly built homes rose 4.8 percent in August, to a seasonally adjusted annual...
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MBS Day Ahead: Where Would We Be Without Stocks?

It's no secret that the bond market has been sideways for a month and a half by even the strictest definitions, and broadly sideways since first settling...
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Serious Delinquencies Grow, but Fewer Overall Missed...

As the COVID-19 crisis dragged into its sixth month in August the total number of mortgage delinquencies continued to ebb, but the rate of decline appears...
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Ops, LO, AE Jobs; Broker, Construction, MSR Management...

I need to make a dart board for the wall behind me for Zoom calls that has “rates up” and “rates down” and “rates the same”...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 2.98%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.61%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.35%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-04 (-0-00)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-17 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 110-14 (0-00)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -4.81%
|
Refinance Index -6.51%
|
Purchase Index -1.87%

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