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MBS RECAP: Nothing to be Mad About, But...

MBS Day Ahead: What Is a Short Squeeze And How Could It Help...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Still On The Ropes

MBS Day Ahead: Great News! Maybe...

MBS RECAP: Mostly an Aftershock For Yesterday's Bond Rout

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MBS RECAP: More Warning Shots From Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on April 18 2018, 4:49 PM

Today was a more serious version of the same sort of warning shots seen at the end of last week. At that time, bond yields rose to challenge an intermediate ceiling at 2.835%, but didn't go out of their way to break it. This week began with higher...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds At Mercy of Earnings Ramp-Up, But Curve Could Help

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by Matthew Graham on April 18 2018, 9:31 AM

The term "earnings season" gets thrown around quite a bit in financial news, but what is it, exactly? Simply put, it's a period of several weeks each quarter where a majority of companies release their earnings reports. This is always of...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Hold Ground Despite Stronger Data/Stocks

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by Matthew Graham on April 17 2018, 4:47 PM

With elevated stock/bond correlation of late, it's always worth noting when things move in the opposite direction. Today was such a day, with stocks making solid gains while bonds managed to hold their ground near unchanged levels. Corporate bond...
MBS Day Ahead: Technically Under Attack, But is There Hidden Hope?

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by Matthew Graham on April 17 2018, 10:16 AM

Much of the analysis of the past few days has focused on the downwardly sloped trend channel seen in today's first chart. This can be thought of as the "correction trend" that helped bonds settle down after a glut of selling pressure to...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Claw Back to 'Unchanged' After Weaker Start

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by Matthew Graham on April 16 2018, 5:20 PM

Bonds were quite a bit weaker in the overnight session. According to the average media report, this was in response to Syria-related developments. The "logic" was that because the US had launched missiles into Syria WITHOUT sparking military...
MBS Week Ahead: Range Breakout In The Spotlight; Red Herrings

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by Matthew Graham on April 16 2018, 10:10 AM

Another week, another change to savor the scent of red herring in the air. Have you ever smelled a herring--let alone a red one? They're oily little bait-fish (like a bigger anchovy) and once out of the ocean (or the bait freezer at your local tackle...
MBS RECAP: Technically Stronger, But...

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by Matthew Graham on April 13 2018, 8:33 PM

Bonds were technically stronger today. There is green on the screen right now for everything but 2yr Treasuries. It's not huge, but at least it's in the right direction. 10's ended the day down nearly 2bps and Fannie 3.5 MBS were up an eighth...
MBS Day Ahead: Feeling Out The End Of 2018's First Correction

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by Matthew Graham on April 13 2018, 9:56 AM

I started using some more serious words to talk about bond market weakness yesterday, but I'll make them simple and keep the assessment short this morning. In a nutshell, we've gone from tracking a linear, well-behaved, modestly-positive correction...
MBS RECAP: Several Reasons Bonds Tanked Today

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by Matthew Graham on April 12 2018, 7:49 PM

At first glance, today was all about a de-escalation of yesterday's Syria rhetoric from Trump (re: "missiles"). Given that we were able to credit yesterday's news for helping bonds improve, it isn't too much to ask to believe today's...
MBS Day Ahead: Apart From Speculation, All We Have Are These Technical Levels

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by Matthew Graham on April 12 2018, 9:32 AM

On a week where the calendar of events had every right to push bond yields more decisively away from their most important recent technical level (2.795% in 10yr yields), we've instead seen a narrow consolidation centered on that same indecisive technical...
MBS RECAP: This Week is Getting Crazy Flat

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by Matthew Graham on April 11 2018, 6:37 PM

Bonds were set to begin the day in fairly unchanged territory when Trump tweeted about launching missiles at Syria and forcing Russia to try to shoot them down ( here ). That was initially of some benefit to bonds just before the start of the domestic...
MBS Day Ahead: Syria Headlines Help, but CPI, Auctions, and Fed Remain in Focus

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by Matthew Graham on April 11 2018, 8:30 AM

Bonds were flat yet again in the overnight session, but began to improve after Trump tweeted "get ready Russia," missiles "will be coming" in response to rising tensions in Syria. As can be seen in the following chart, this was somewhat...
MBS RECAP: 2nd Straight Day Holding Inside Friday's Range

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by Matthew Graham on April 10 2018, 6:17 PM

For bonds (and almost for S&P futures as well), today was spent in roughly the same range as yesterday and well-within the range boundaries set by Friday's trading. News stories are touting volatility in stocks. While that may be true inasmuch...
MBS Day Ahead: First Treasury Auction; Not The Price Index You're Looking For

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by Matthew Graham on April 10 2018, 9:19 AM

Although today's 8:30am data has the trigger phrase "price index," it's not the price index you're looking for. That will come tomorrow in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Today's Producer Price Index (PPI) measures...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Battle Back to Unchanged in Narrow Range

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by Matthew Graham on April 09 2018, 5:04 PM

Without any major events or data on the econ calendar, it was a calm and relatively inconsequential day for bond markets. Yields stayed (mostly) inside the two narrowest technical levels from Friday afternoon (2.80% and 2.76%), but that wasn't looking...

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MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Still On The Ropes

Today was the calmest of the past 3 days of craziness, although the higher-than-average volume suggests things are still happening behind the scenes. Specifically...
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Rising Rates Tilt Origination Composition

The interest rates on loans that closed in April were the highest since Ellie Mae started tracking data in 2011. According to the company's Origination...
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MBS RECAP: Mostly an Aftershock For Yesterday's...

If you happened to be out of the office yesterday, 10yr yields finally broke out of their most recent consolidation pattern and moved quickly to the highest...
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Rates Inch Further Into Long-Term Highs

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The Economy, Employment, Rising Home Prices Whittle...

Improving loan performance doesn't make headlines any longer, but worth noting that the improvement is still good news. The Mortgage Bankers Association...
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Housing Starts Weakened as Expected in April

The leading construction indicators performed generally as analysts had predicted in April, stepping back from March's solid increases in both permits...
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MBS Day Ahead: Without Yesterday, Today would look...

Today is starting out with just a hint of green on the screens. While that's certainly much better than the alternative (some historical examples see...
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Refi Applications at 8-Year Low

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Tank; Yields Surge Past 2014 Highs

July 8, 2011. That's how far you'd have to go back to see higher 10yr yields than we saw today. At their worst, they were at 3.0945% . At the close...
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Mortgage Rates Jump to 7-Year Highs

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Builder Confidence Perks Up After Three-Month Slide

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo said on Tuesday that builder confidence in the new home market ticked up two points on...
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MBS Day Ahead: Since The 1980's, Only 3 Other Days...

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Marketing Products; Training on Underwriting, Compliance...

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MBS RECAP: Impressionable Bonds Hit by Central Bank...

Low volume and lighter-than-normal liquidity left US bond markets more impressionable than normal today. Or perhaps it IS normal given that it's a...
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Mortgage Rates Sideways But Market Says They Shouldn't...

Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, and that's actually a strong showing considering what transpired in underlying bond markets. In...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.78%
|
15 Yr FRM 4.21%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.80%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 103-22 (0-10)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 105-18 (0-07)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 107-04 (-0-05)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -1.15%
|
Refinance Index -2.64%
|
Purchase Index 5.06%

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