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Up and Down Again

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by Matthew Graham on March 27 2008, 6:29 PM

After we tanked earlier we're back up a bit to noon's levels. Floating is safe again for now. Ah, but as I typed that last sentence the market is tanking again, straight off a cliff. Price change for the worse highly likely.
Dropping rapidly

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by Matthew Graham on March 27 2008, 4:19 PM

We've come off 4/32nds in price quite rapidly in the last 10 minutes. If your rates are out already this morning, some lenders may reprice for the worse.
Economy and Jobless Claims Hold Steady - MBS Unhappy

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by Matthew Graham on March 27 2008, 1:10 PM

The relevant data this morning: GDP = 0.6%, dead even with analysts' expectations. Although this is a very poor growth rate, the fact that it is in line with analysts' predictions means the weakness of the reading had already been "priced in" to trading...
Price Changes (details to follow)

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by Matthew Graham on March 27 2008, 1:06 PM

MBS Price Data Price Change FNMA 5.0 98-15 /16 -0-11 FNMA 5.5 100-15 /15 -0-10 FNMA 6.0 102-03 /04 -0-05 FNMA 6.5 103-11 /13 -0-03
Languishing near unchanged

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by Matthew Graham on March 26 2008, 5:41 PM

MBS can't seem to pick up enough steam to get back up the hill. More conservative lenders may reprice an eighth or so for the worse. That's about a 50/50 shot, maybe less. If you're convinced of poor economic data tomorrow, floating still makes sense...
Coming back now

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by Matthew Graham on March 26 2008, 5:10 PM

The cliff had a shallow floor and we're still positive on the day 4/32nds. If you didn't see your reprice yet, floating again is likely an acceptable risk.
off a cliff...

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by Matthew Graham on March 26 2008, 4:52 PM

strong potential for a negative reprice unless we turn a corner right away.
a bit more pronounced now

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by Matthew Graham on March 26 2008, 4:39 PM

another 3/32nds hit in the last 5 minutes. I hate to do so, but locking now may avoid a potential reprice today, even ahead of potentially improving rates tomorrow.
Just a head's up

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by Matthew Graham on March 26 2008, 4:27 PM

We've pared about 4/32nds from our highs of the morning. Normally wouldn't even be worth mentioning, but since the highs coincided with the time frame that many lenders priced this morning, some of the more conservative types may sneak in a .125 YSP price...
Durable Goods Orders Fall, MBS Advances

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by Matthew Graham on March 26 2008, 1:12 PM

Relevant Data For Today: Durable Goods, which were expected to rally by 0.7% actually lost 1.7%. This is significantly weaker than expected and another feather in the cap of the big, bad, recession wolf. Too bad for the economy yes, but generally speaking...
Morning Pricing

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by Matthew Graham on March 26 2008, 1:03 PM

MBS Price Data Price Change FNMA 5.0 99-01 / 01 +0-08 FNMA 5.5 100-29 /30 +0-07 FNMA 6.0 102-10 /11 +0-04 FNMA 6.5 103-15 /15 +0-02
another update

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by Matthew Graham on March 25 2008, 4:34 PM

Just trying to keep you up to the minute here. The price curve appears to be dipping again (potentially not-stabilized). If you're not a risk-taker, or even if you are but just don't want to be, locking makes sense now. If the economic data for the rest...
Sliding A Bit

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by Matthew Graham on March 25 2008, 4:22 PM

We're down to 100-21 in the 5.5%. If your lender was out with prices earlier this morning, they may reprice for the worse soon, but will likely wait to see if this slide stabilizes. As of now it seems that it has, but every lender will respond differently...
MBS's Reacting

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by Matthew Graham on March 25 2008, 2:13 PM

MBS Price Data Price Change FNMA 5.0 98-30 /30 +0-13 FNMA 5.5 100-27 /27 +0-08 FNMA 6.0 102-09 /09 +0-05 FNMA 6.5 103-15 /16 +0-02 By the time this post hits, the prices will probably have gained some more. Just so we're clear, the hi/lo/med forecast...
Holy Weak Consumer Batman! 64.5!

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by Matthew Graham on March 25 2008, 2:02 PM

In late breaking news, the consumer confidence index read at a level of 64.5, down from 75.0 last month. These numbers have not been seen for many many years and are in line with what economists have considered previous recessions in the US.

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