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ISM just a touch higher than expected, Construction Spending beats expectations

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by Matthew Graham on April 01 2008, 2:10 PM

So far, not a very happy morning for the bond market, unless you care about the fact that MBS are performing significantly better than treasuries. The UBS and Lehman news is fueling a stock rally. The higher it goes today, the more it will hurt bonds...
You And Us, UBS.

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by Matthew Graham on April 01 2008, 1:09 PM

Headline risk to the MBS market reared it's ugly head today as UBS announced it would raise about 15 billion dollars in capital after reporting a write down of 19 billion. Lehman Brothers made a similar announcement yesterday saying it would raise at...
Can't seem to get off the ground

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by Matthew Graham on March 31 2008, 8:10 PM

MBS haven't retreated lower than their Friday levels but they also don't seem to have the will to improve today either. Many look to the NAPM as an indication of the ISM which is set to release tomorrow. Many analysts have upped their forecast because...
Fading Ever-So-Slightly

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by Matthew Graham on March 31 2008, 3:33 PM

MBS is down just slightly by about 2-3/32nds. This will not lead to a reprice yet, but do stay on guard and be ready to lock should the losses continue.
Chicago NAPM Index in at 48.2 (9:50 AM, EDT)

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by Matthew Graham on March 31 2008, 1:52 PM

This is higher than expected. MBS market is down slightly on the news. More to follow. Update: 10:05 EDT : So far the MBS market is digesting the NAPM data well. It's always interesting to see the market's reaction when a particular report comes in better...
Theme for The Week: Employment and Production

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by Matthew Graham on March 31 2008, 1:21 PM

Most of our scheduled economic releases this weak will deal with either employment or production. The only scheduled release for today is the Chicago NAPM index which read extremely low last month and is forecast for another historically low reading....
MBS Prices This Morning

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by Matthew Graham on March 31 2008, 1:15 PM

MBS Price Data Price Change FNMA 5.0 99-04 /05 +0-09 FNMA 5.5 101-01 /02 +0-07 FNMA 6.0 102-14 /15 +0-04 FNMA 6.5 103-18 /19 +0-04
How Sweet It Is!

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by Matthew Graham on March 28 2008, 9:01 PM

Closing time for MBS and we continued our hot streak right up until the bell, ending on the highs of the day with the 5.5% coupon at 100-31, just a scant 1/32nd from the glorious 101-00 level. So even though you may be getting reprices for the better...
Still Rockin' and Rollin'

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by Matthew Graham on March 28 2008, 6:44 PM

We're skyrocketing right now towards 101-00 on the 5.5% coupon. Do not lock. Even if profit-takers in the MBS market decide to start selling off, we've come up so far that we still will not reprice for the worse on the day. If the gains hold these levels...
Don't Forget Your Second Wind...

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by Matthew Graham on March 28 2008, 2:57 PM

MBS have found their second wind after taking a bit of a beating this morning. Well, the losses this morning were more likely an extension of those from yesterday as the data has been more or less on our side this morning. The Consumer sentiment reading...
Before The News

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by Matthew Graham on March 28 2008, 12:04 PM

The MBS market is adding to losses that came yesterday afternoon with the 5.5% coupon down 5/32nds so far. Yesterday was frustrating for bears and bulls as inflation and "loss" concerns ruled the day. Money left the market in both stocks and bonds partly...
Up and Down Again

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by Matthew Graham on March 27 2008, 6:29 PM

After we tanked earlier we're back up a bit to noon's levels. Floating is safe again for now. Ah, but as I typed that last sentence the market is tanking again, straight off a cliff. Price change for the worse highly likely.
Dropping rapidly

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by Matthew Graham on March 27 2008, 4:19 PM

We've come off 4/32nds in price quite rapidly in the last 10 minutes. If your rates are out already this morning, some lenders may reprice for the worse.
Economy and Jobless Claims Hold Steady - MBS Unhappy

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by Matthew Graham on March 27 2008, 1:10 PM

The relevant data this morning: GDP = 0.6%, dead even with analysts' expectations. Although this is a very poor growth rate, the fact that it is in line with analysts' predictions means the weakness of the reading had already been "priced in" to trading...
Price Changes (details to follow)

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by Matthew Graham on March 27 2008, 1:06 PM

MBS Price Data Price Change FNMA 5.0 98-15 /16 -0-11 FNMA 5.5 100-15 /15 -0-10 FNMA 6.0 102-03 /04 -0-05 FNMA 6.5 103-11 /13 -0-03

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