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Record New Home Prices; Fast Appreciation Not So Fast Without Distressed Sales; Mortgage Rates EVEN Higher
Published: 5/23/2013
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MBS Basics:   Part 1  |  Part 2  |  Part 3  |  Part 4  |  The Gut Flop
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  • Sliding A Bit

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    by Matthew Graham on March 25 2008, 4:22 PM
    We're down to 100-21 in the 5.5%. If your lender was out with prices earlier this morning, they may reprice for the worse soon, but will likely wait to see if this slide stabilizes. As of now it seems that it has, but every lender will respond differently...

  • MBS's Reacting

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    by Matthew Graham on March 25 2008, 2:13 PM
    MBS Price Data Price Change FNMA 5.0 98-30 /30 +0-13 FNMA 5.5 100-27 /27 +0-08 FNMA 6.0 102-09 /09 +0-05 FNMA 6.5 103-15 /16 +0-02 By the time this post hits, the prices will probably have gained some more. Just so we're clear, the hi/lo/med forecast...

  • Holy Weak Consumer Batman! 64.5!

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    by Matthew Graham on March 25 2008, 2:02 PM
    In late breaking news, the consumer confidence index read at a level of 64.5, down from 75.0 last month. These numbers have not been seen for many many years and are in line with what economists have considered previous recessions in the US.

  • On Your Marks... Get Set.... Wait For It... Wait For It...

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    by Matthew Graham on March 25 2008, 1:06 PM
    After the MBS markets "fizzled out" yesterday, change may be on the wind. Indeed, this morning, there are several factors that point to a potentially good day for MBS. The relatively unimportant ICSC Store Sales Numbers showed a .4% decrease month over...

  • A little improvement

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    by Matthew Graham on March 25 2008, 12:55 PM
    Here are the numbers so far this morning. Comment to follow in 2nd post... MBS Price Data Price Change FNMA 5.0 99-26 /27 +0-09 FNMA 5.5 100-24 /25 +0-06 FNMA 6.0 102-07 /08 +0-04 FNMA 6.5 103-14 /15 +0-01

  • back down again in the 5.5

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    by Matthew Graham on March 24 2008, 7:12 PM
    We're back at 100-15/32nds making locking for those that were condsidering it the safe choice for today. However, the important mitigating factor is that spreads to the 10 year treasury are high on the day which might prevent some lenders from repricing...

  • Dialing Back The Pain

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    by Matthew Graham on March 24 2008, 6:14 PM
    For those of you "on a fence" about locking today, we have pulled back from the brink as the 5.5% MBS began a push towards a 100 basis point loss on the day. We're currently at 100-18 /19 on the 5.5% coupon, a lost off 26/32nds on the day. You may be...

  • Prices Falling a bit

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    by Matthew Graham on March 24 2008, 5:43 PM
    Though some lenders may have given up a reprice for the better owing to a stable MBS price curve after 9:30 AM eastern, the prices have fallen 3-4/3nds in the last few minutes which may prompt some lenders to reprice for the worse soon. If you are going...

  • MBS slide after home sales data

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    by Matthew Graham on March 24 2008, 2:07 PM
    Existing home sales posted a long-forgotten gain of 2.9% to 5.03 million, unexpected news, and higher than the expectation of 4.85 million. Stocks are rallying on the news and bonds are sliding. If you already received rates this morning, locking may...

  • Pre-Open News: Unfriendly to MBS

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    by Matthew Graham on March 24 2008, 12:53 PM
    As mentioned on Friday, in the absence of economic reports, "headlines" are moving the MBS and futures markets in early trading. Recall that last week, we ended on a high note with the MBS holding it's gains from Thursday despite a rally in the Dow on...

  • Going Into The Weekend

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    by Matthew Graham on March 20 2008, 5:53 PM
    Lots to consider... It doesn't appear rates will get worse by the end of the day, but it is also not a strong probability of improvements (though some lenders have repriced for the better, most won't. Feel free to float up until your lock cutoff and then...

  • No Locks Yet

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    Read More
    by Matthew Graham on March 20 2008, 3:24 PM
    If you haven't locked already, don't. I know that those of you with access to bond pricing may be seeing negative numbers currently, and though they did bounce down for a moment, the live feed shows both 5.0 and 5.5 coupons holding steady at even on the...

  • Keep Hope Alive

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    by Matthew Graham on March 20 2008, 2:38 PM
    I hate to say it (and jinx it), but the market is almost behaving predictably today! Haven't seen that in a while. So as stocks have halted at a 100 point gain, the losses in MBS have stopped. We're currently holding even on the day, which is a good sign...

  • Be Alert

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    by Matthew Graham on March 20 2008, 2:04 PM
    Philly Fed survey was released better than expected, but down almost 5% nonethleess. LEI was released in line with expectations confirming our recessionary trend. We will have to carefully watch the market's reaction to these numbers. When releases are...

  • Looks Like Floating Was A Good Idea (part 2)

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    by Matthew Graham on March 20 2008, 12:51 PM
    With the LEI (leading economic indicators) report and Philly Fed Survey yet to be released this morning, it is still too early to say definitively, but MBS look to improve again today on worse than expected economic data. The Jobless Claims number was...
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More From MND

Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.81%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 2.97%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.92%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 107-06 (0-02)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 108-03 (0-05)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 108-14 (0-01)
Recent Housing Data:
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  • Refinance Index -11.66%
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  • NAHB Builder Confidence 4.76%
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