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MBS Basics:   Part 1  |  Part 2  |  Part 3  |  Part 4  |  The Gut Flop
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  • MBS ALERT: Yet Lower...

    by Matthew Graham on July 13 2009, 3:19 PM
    Lenders that haven't already reprice for the worse may now be inclined to do so as we are at the lowest point of the last two sessions by a decent margin... Two important things to remember here: - this is not data driven and it is occurring after...
  • MBS ALERT: Benchmarks Lead Us Lower

    by AQ on July 13 2009, 2:40 PM
    Rate sheet influential MBS have been jolted from their range by a higher stock indices and a rise in benchmark yields. The FN 4.5 has fallen to 100-10 from 100-17, which would be enough reason for lenders to reprice for the worse. MBS/TSY spreads have...
  • MBS LUNCH: Oh No Stocks Are Rallying!!!

    by AQ on July 13 2009, 12:59 PM
    OH NO...stocks are rallying!!!!!Since stocks are trading higher on the day you would expect Treasuries and MBS to be selling off right? Nope. Not Happening. Pretty stable interest rate environment so far today, volume is light in the 10 yr sector as I...
  • MBS MORNING: Up in Coupon in Slow Trading

    by AQ on July 13 2009, 10:37 AM
    The FN 4.5 was choppy early on in the session, but has since found a range and is now taking directional guidance from the gyrations of the yield curve (and swaps).Mortgage rates are slightly higher from Friday as lenders await CONFIRMATION....(fall out...
  • MBS OPEN: Still More Questions Than Answers

    by AQ on July 13 2009, 7:53 AM
    Risk Aversion consumed the marketplace this week. Treasury yields fell as stocks weakened. The price of oil plummeted and the dollar lost ground on several currencies. The markets are in search of confirmation of these recent trends. This week market...
  • MBS AFTERNOON: Markets Set Up for Confirmation

    by AQ on July 10 2009, 2:30 PM
    Isnt it interesting that the S&P has moved to just about its weakest levels of the week (bearish) and the 10 yr has ticked down to its lowest yield of the week (bullish)? Thats for good reason...because markets are in WAITING MODE...LOOKING FOR GUIDANCE...
  • MBS ALERT: Lows of The Day... But...

    by Matthew Graham on July 10 2009, 12:46 PM
    Suddenly, nominal profit taking accelerated to the lows of the day... When "lows of the day" occur, there is always a chance that lenders will reprice for the worse. So it is our duty to at least inform you of that. BUT! We do it grudgingly...
  • MBS MORNING: Playing Follow the Leader in Light Volume

    by AQ on July 10 2009, 11:15 AM
    The 10 yr is at its lowest point since late May! Our bullish bias is strengthening as the recovery rally we discussed yesterday afternoon has ensued, however volume has been a bit lackluster today (460k 10 yr contracts traded so far) so we are still not...
  • MBS OPEN: Range Moderates. TSY Yields Lower. MBS Prices Higher

    by AQ on July 10 2009, 8:36 AM
    Prices of "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons are moving higher this morning following an overnight rally in the Treasury market. Stock futures indicate an open to the downside. Fixed income traders are looking for further confirmation that...
  • MBS CLOSE: Perspective Time!

    by Matthew Graham on July 09 2009, 6:53 PM
    In light of AQ's most recent post, we'll keep this one short and more focused on charts. If down days get you, well... down, then this is for you. Just some things to remember about universal truths of MBS and things to know about the potential...
  • MBS AFTERNOON: Range Bound Again?

    by AQ on July 09 2009, 3:35 PM
    Plain and Simple: the market is stuck again...stocks are range bound after being oversold (short term) and benchmark TSYs have corrected from being a bit overbought (profit taking...both sides of the street are unwilling to make a move to in either direction...
  • MBS ALERT: Post Auction Volatility

    by AQ on July 09 2009, 1:39 PM
    Following the 30 yr bond auction, rate sheet influential MBS coupons have traded in a volatile range as the 10 yr TSY attempts to show its intention to hold bullish momentum. Some lenders will reprice for the worse...
  • MBS LUNCH: Improvements After The Auction

    by Matthew Graham on July 09 2009, 1:19 PM
    When the wire first hit (which we get a bit before the public site is updated), I was concerned that the tail of 3-4 bps would be perceived as a negative in light of yesterday's high yield coming in UNDER previous trading. But so far, that has been...

    by Matthew Graham on July 09 2009, 1:01 PM
    High Yield of 4.303%, was trading at about 4.28 before auction. 67% at high yield (the lower the better considering the 4-5 bp tail) Bit to cover 2.36 indirects about 50% So far so good as far as the reaction. More to follow......
  • MBS MORNING: Need Further Confirmation

    by AQ on July 09 2009, 10:48 AM
    Remember what we said about the stars aligning....Stocks confirming bearish bias + Bonds confirming bullish bias + Lower interest rate volatility = Less MBS convexity anxiety = BETTER MORTGAGE RATES Well stocks still aren't quite sure about their...
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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.71%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 3.04%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.63%
MBS Prices:
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps -2.33%
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  • Refinance Index -1.76%
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  • Purchase Index -3.07%