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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Begin Week With Some Optimism

MBS RECAP: Bonds Overcome Producer Inflation But Not The Range

MBS Day Ahead: Not Expecting Fireworks Ahead of 3-Day Weekend...

MBS RECAP: Fed Says Nothing New. Bonds Sell-Off Anyway

Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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Non-QM and Construction Products; Training and Events Nationwide...

Mortgage Rates Steady Ahead of Holiday Weekend

Delinquency Recovery Interrupted by Natural Disasters

Vendor and Management Products; Fannie and Freddie Updates; LIBOR...

Mortgage Rates Edge Back Up to Early 2011 Levels

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Delinquency Recovery Interrupted by Natural Disasters; Rates Steady Ahead of Holiday Weekend

Published: 11/9/2018

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MBS Day Ahead: Consolidation Breakout Sets Up Important Test For Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on October 23 2018, 9:17 AM

Yesterday was boring and uneventful. Bonds seemed to be trying everything in their power to remain range-bound and avoid breaking out of the consolidation pattern we'd been tracking. By contrast, today's bond market is unrecognizable --seemingly...
MBS RECAP: Uneventful Start; Consolidation Continues

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by Matthew Graham on October 22 2018, 5:26 PM

As of October 16th, we'd been tracking the most recent consolidation in bond yields (and stocks for that matter) waiting for a breakout to suggest the next dose of momentum. Stocks broke higher with conviction while bonds merely trickled sideways...
MBS Week Ahead: Limited Data, Bond Auctions, and More Indecision

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by Matthew Graham on October 22 2018, 8:47 AM

The basic candlestick or bar chart that the average bond analyst uses to track 10yr Treasury yields is doing a good job of capturing the current opposing forces in rates. On the one hand , the combination of economic data, NAFTA 2.0, and Fed comments...
MBS RECAP: Super Sideways and Slightly Weaker

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by Matthew Graham on October 19 2018, 8:02 PM

Bonds were stuck between a rock and a hard place today. Actually they were stuck between stocks and a European place. Stocks made a case for a bond rally (not that stocks are in total control of bonds, but all other things being equal, stocks' intraday...
MBS Day Ahead: Risks and Opportunities With Past Precedent

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by Matthew Graham on October 19 2018, 8:54 AM

We've talked a bit (in this commentary and in the live chat on MBS Live ) about the similarities between the October sell-off and one seen in April/May 2018. Both took yields to what were, at the time, the highest yields in years. Both examples have...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Find Buyers Thanks to Europe

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by Matthew Graham on October 18 2018, 5:04 PM

Bond markets began the day almost perfectly unchanged relative to yesterday's latest levels. That means the nasty little afternoon selling spree was still priced-in as of this morning. That continued to be the case until the 11am hour. At that point...
MBS Day Ahead: Scary Technical Pattern Shaping Up For Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on October 18 2018, 9:44 AM

What is a pivot point ? In our primer on the topic, I talk mostly about levels that have repeatedly offered resistance or support to bond yields, but there's another relevant addition to the definition. Pivot points can also be suggested by a singular...
MBS RECAP: Fed Proves to be Mere Speedbump For Bond Sellers

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by Matthew Graham on October 17 2018, 5:06 PM

Hindsight really is 20/20, and foresight wasn't too bad either. Either way, the picture is becoming clearer as bond yields move back toward recent highs in the wake of today's Fed Minutes. Let's start with the foresight . We'd been expecting...
MBS Day Ahead: Fed Minutes Approach; and a Musical Guest!

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by Matthew Graham on October 17 2018, 9:57 AM

There are only so many ways to say that bonds are range-bound and waiting for the motivation to break that range. Could it be the Fed Minutes today? Sure! But could the Fed Minutes also be a non-event that only prolongs the sideways indecision? Again...
MBS RECAP: Uneventful Day For Bonds; Fed Minutes Tomorrow

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by Matthew Graham on October 16 2018, 4:30 PM

The S&P recovered roughly half of its losses from last week today, decisively breaking out of the consolidation pattern that had been in place through this morning. Bonds, on the other hand, are still in the consolidation pattern that accompanied...
MBS Day Ahead: What Are We Waiting For?

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by Matthew Graham on October 16 2018, 8:40 AM

Waiting... That's all anyone has been doing since last Thursday in financial markets. One day prior, stocks jumped off a cliff and bond yields raced to the edge of the same cliff and peered over the side. It's like one of those far-fetched movie...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Mostly Ignore Retails Sales Data

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by Matthew Graham on October 15 2018, 5:32 PM

This morning's Retail Sales report was arguably the biggest-ticket of the week in terms of economic data. It speaks to the ongoing level of uncertainty that we saw almost no reaction despite a headline of +0.1 vs median forecast of +0.6, at least...
MBS Week Ahead: Did Bonds Get a Pass From Stocks Last Week?

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by Matthew Graham on October 15 2018, 9:04 AM

Before last week's stock rout, bonds were stuck in a rut. For four straight sessions, they hit the highest intraday yields since 2011. Even after the 3rd biggest stock sell-off since the financial crisis, Treasuries were reluctant to rally in any...
MBS RECAP: Uneventful Conclusion to a Crazy Week

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by Matthew Graham on October 12 2018, 7:07 PM

Referring to the week of bond trading as " crazy " is a bit of a stretch. If we bring stocks into the mix, or if we go back to last Wednesday, it's been a crazy 7 business days (bonds were closed on Monday). As you're well aware, stocks...
MBS Day Ahead: Another Day of Stock Watching; Don't Expect Miracles

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by Matthew Graham on October 12 2018, 9:59 AM

Is there potential for today to turn into a "black Friday" with catastrophic stock losses that usher in the most amazing bond rally we've seen in years? Sure... that could happen any time, really, depending on the underlying events driving...

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Delinquency Recovery Interrupted by Natural Disasters

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Construction and HELOC Products; Non-QM Webinars; Mr...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 5.05%
|
15 Yr FRM 4.53%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.61%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 102-02 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 104-01 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 105-26 (0-04)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0.03%
|
Refinance Index -0.10%
|
Purchase Index 0.12%

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