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MBS Day Ahead: Lender Pricing Will Continue to Defy MBS Logic...

Who Broke The Mortgage Market And When Will It Be Fixed?

MBS Day Ahead: Visualizing The Drama And The Comeback in Mortgages...

DEFINITIVE FED MBS BUYING FAQ (And Other Resources to Consider...

Master List of Mortgage Market's COVID-19 Changes And Appraisal...

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CFPB Empowers Fannie/Freddie to Overcome Lockdown Woes

Builders Already Feeling Pandemic Pinch

Digital, Compliance, Servicing; Commercial and State Bond Products...

Mortgage Rates Are Amazing and Terrible

Annual Home Price Gains Up 5.2% in January

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MBS RECAP: 10yr Nearly Tags All-Time Lows; Mortgage Market Laggin'

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by Matthew Graham on February 24 2020, 8:24 PM

Yields plummeted overnight and again this morning, giving chase to a massive global stock market sell-off due to rapidly rising coronavirus fears. MBS did quite well on an outright basis, but lagged horribly behind Treasuries in terms of day-over-day...
MBS Week Ahead: High Gear nCov Fear Pushing Rates Toward All-Time Lows

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by Matthew Graham on February 24 2020, 10:58 AM

Coronavirus (or nCov for short) made more disconcerting headlines over the weekend and has generally proven itself to be far more capable in that regard than its long lost cousin, SARS. When the nCov market narrative first emerged in mid-January, the...
MBS Day Ahead: For Now, It's Rally Time

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by Matthew Graham on February 21 2020, 9:47 AM

The bond market specializes in making bets about future economic realities even as the stock market reflects shorter-term performance of the biggest companies. "Shorter-term" in this context means a heavy weight given to present day stats and...
MBS RECAP: Stock Selling Helped, But Bonds Were Already Rallying

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by Matthew Graham on February 20 2020, 4:35 PM

At the start of the overnight session (yesterday night), 10yr yields were up around 1.58%. By 1030am ET, they'd already fallen to 1.525%. Up until that time, we hadn't heard so much as a peep out of global equities markets even though they would...
Consolidation Setting Sights on Next Week

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by Matthew Graham on February 20 2020, 10:23 AM

In case you're just joining us, there's a consolidation going on in the bond market. That means yields are trading in a progressively narrower range after making a relatively bigger move. It happened in grand fashion in the second half of 2019...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Trying to Find Footing on a Ceiling

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by Matthew Graham on February 19 2020, 9:26 AM

Thinking about the bond market in terms of rates and yields affords certain analytical luxuries. One is the ability to think in "upside down" terms where fans of low rates hope to break floors and find footing on ceilings. The most recently...
MBS Week Ahead: Bonds Begin Week With an Upbeat Signal

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by Matthew Graham on February 18 2020, 9:13 AM

The ability of the bond market to defy the cues seen elsewhere in the financial market has been relatively impressive over the past few weeks. It could even be a bit puzzling, at times. Specifically, global financial markets freaked out about coronavirus...
MBS RECAP: Super Sideways Bonds Add To The Mystery

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by Matthew Graham on February 14 2020, 5:27 PM

Until today, even though bonds were already in a sideways pattern, we would have to have given the nod to the uptrend in rates vs the downtrend (2 competing trends are colliding, forming a consolidation pattern). Today's gains complicated that assessment...
MBS Day Ahead: Uncertainty Actually Means Uncertainty

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by Matthew Graham on February 14 2020, 10:32 AM

I'll admit, there are times where I point out some chart-based evidence of uncertainty in the bond market and I feel like we're just delaying an inevitable move. The most recent sideways consolidation felt like that yesterday. Sure, yields were...
MBS Day Ahead: Beware The (Ongoing) Bounce

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by Matthew Graham on February 13 2020, 10:15 AM

Fancy chart overlays and technical studies are frustrating in the sense that they give us another angle to understand and discuss market movement, but they fall far short of reliably predicting the future. Spoiler alert: that holy grail won't ever...
MBS RECAP: Bond Market's Simple Plan

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by Matthew Graham on February 12 2020, 4:20 PM

A few notes on the bond market's recent plans: First few days of 2020: Come into the new year ready for that break above 2.0% that everyone was expecting, but equally ready to react to unexpected geopolitical risk due to US/Iran conflict. Result:...
MBS Day Ahead: The Bounce Continues

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by Matthew Graham on February 12 2020, 9:17 AM

2 weeks ago, as rates plummeted toward the lowest levels in more than 3 years, I began to point out a very obvious caveat to the gains. Because coronavirus fears were driving the move, it was only fair to expect a noticeable bounce toward higher rates...
MBS RECAP: Low Rates on Borrowed Time?

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by Matthew Graham on February 11 2020, 5:19 PM

Bonds were weaker in the overnight session as Chinese equities markets continued to bounce toward higher levels. This follows a head-fake toward lower levels last week that helped rates move back toward the lowest levels in more than 3.5 years. Follow...
MBS Day Ahead: Powell Testimony, Skittish Markets, MBS Roll

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by Matthew Graham on February 11 2020, 10:10 AM

Amid a dearth of important economic data between now and Friday, the bond market doesn't have much to do when it comes to pricing in bigger-picture economic fundamentals. Even then, the word around the campfire is that traders are planning on giving...
MBS Day Ahead: Limited Data as Bonds Consider New Trading Range

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by Matthew Graham on February 10 2020, 9:36 AM

If the US/Iran flare up provided an opening act to the unexpected drama of 2020, coronavirus has been the headliner. Before these two events took the stage, there was every possibility that 10yr yields would make good on their threat to break back above...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.40%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.50%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.50%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 106-24 (0-12)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 107-01 (0-10)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 108-24 (-0-09)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 15.13%
|
Refinance Index 25.99%
|
Purchase Index -2.67%

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