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MBS Day Ahead: Overnight Losses Provide Reminder About Complacency...

MBS RECAP: Stronger Case For Stability, But Not Complacency

MBS Day Ahead: Trying to Set a New Thursday Trend

MBS RECAP: No Reaction to Fed Minutes (Or Anything Else For That...

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MBS Day Ahead: No Love From Fed on SLR, But Bonds Are Showing Some Resilience

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by Matthew Graham on March 19 2021, 10:36 AM

Based on the number of times members have searched the term "SLR" on MBS Live in the past week, we'll go ahead and cover it here again. SLR = Supplemental Leverage Ratio. It limits the amount that banks can lend. In April 2020, the Fed made...
MBS RECAP: Abandon Hope, All Ye Who Float Overnight

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by Matthew Graham on March 18 2021, 4:09 PM

Abandon Hope, All Ye Who Float Overnight We're putting in for permits to build our own Pirates of the Caribbean ride at MBS Live world headquarters. There will be more waterfalls, and they'll be sharper. We're mapping the slope based on bond...
MBS Day Ahead: More Carnage. Why Is This Happening?

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by Matthew Graham on March 18 2021, 11:26 AM

Powell was reasonably dovish yesterday. He immediately shut down a reporter who asked when we could talk about tapering. He reiterated the need to remain accommodative for longer than normal this time and that the Fed's reaction function would not...
MBS RECAP: Powell Punts on SLR; Bonds Survive... Sorta

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by Matthew Graham on March 17 2021, 4:36 PM

Powell Punts on SLR; Bonds Survive... Sorta Today could have been much worse even though no one will look back on it as a great day for bonds. We started out at the highest yields in more than a year after heavy-ish losses overnight. After a healthy dose...
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on March 17 2021, 2:00 PM

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals. The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic...
MBS Day Ahead: Losses Accelerate. Will The Fed Save Us?

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by Matthew Graham on March 17 2021, 9:56 AM

For the 17th time in 2021, we can unhappily re-use the same lead in: just when you thought bonds surely wouldn't get any weaker... 10yr yields hit more new long-term highs overnight (currently at 1.66%+, putting the 1.75% target--the one that seemed...
MBS RECAP: No Help From Strong Auction or Weak Data; Waiting on The Fed

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by Matthew Graham on March 16 2021, 3:53 PM

No Help From Strong Auction or Weak Data; Waiting on The Fed Bonds shrugged off a big miss in Retail Sales this morning and, despite more of an acknowledgment, did the same after a strong 20yr bond auction at 1pm ET. Yields held well inside the range...
MBS Day Ahead: With Data Failing to Inspire, Focus on Fed Intensifies

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by Matthew Graham on March 16 2021, 10:19 AM

So far this morning, bonds have passed over the econ data in favor consolidating inside Friday's trading range. Given the proximity of the Fed announcement (tomorrow) and the apparent importance of the Fed's SLR extension (or expiration), it's...
MBS RECAP: Fighting Good Fight, Waiting on Fed Day

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by Matthew Graham on March 15 2021, 3:52 PM

Fighting Good Fight, Waiting on Fed Day Coming off a fairly rough Friday at the end of last week, it's mildly reassuring to begin the new week with no additional damage. But as has been the case for weeks, these resilient episodes are noticeably lacking...
MBS Day Ahead: Another Chance to Find The Ceiling; What is SLR?

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by Matthew Graham on March 15 2021, 9:21 AM

Last week ended poorly for the bond market with yields jumping to new one year highs. It was also the first full week with 10yr yields trading above 2019's low yield of 1.44%. Despite the break of the 1.62% ceiling, yields stayed fairly close, and...
MBS RECAP: Sobering Reminder About Rising Rate Trend

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by Matthew Graham on March 12 2021, 3:36 PM

Sobering Reminder About Rising Rate Trend By yesterday afternoon, the bond market had managed to string together several of the most reassuring days of 2021. 10yr yields were close to 1.50% by the end of the day and the next significant ceiling at 1.62...
MBS Day Ahead: This is a Rising Rate Environment

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by Matthew Graham on March 12 2021, 10:27 AM

By yesterday afternoon, the bond market had managed to string together several of the most reassuring days of 2021. Today's early losses provide a wake up call as to the nature of the rising rate environment. The reassurance and/or hope had to do...
MBS RECAP: Tame Treasury Auctions. What's Up With New NOO/2nd Fees?

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by Matthew Graham on March 11 2021, 3:36 PM

Tame Treasury Auctions. What's Up With New NOO/2nd Fees? The week's biggest potential market movers (the 10 and 30yr Treasury auctions) turned out to have almost no impact on the bond market. In fact, things have been fairly flat since Tuesday...
MBS Day Ahead: Investment Property Hit Stealing The Show as Bonds Stay Sideways

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by Matthew Graham on March 11 2021, 10:31 AM

Yesterday's much-anticipated 10yr auction was extremely underwhelming. Combine that with fairly flat trading levels at the moment and the mortgage community is free to devote most of its focus to the newest hot topic of lender-specific hits on investment...
MBS RECAP: Reasons For Both Hope and Caution

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by Matthew Graham on March 10 2021, 4:01 PM

Reasons For Both Hope and Caution Today's 10yr auction was average, but that performance followed a mid-day bond rally. In other words, the auction likely would have been stronger if not for that rally. On one hand, it's encouraging to continue...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.29%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.75%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.33%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-21 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 110-19 (0-05)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 111-13 (-0-03)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.51%
|
Refinance Index -5.12%
|
Purchase Index -100.00%

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