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MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Hold on to Recent Gains Ahead of Big...

MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Still at Altar Despite Yesterday's...

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Mortgage Rates Catch a Break Heading Into Important Week

Strong Reaction on Wall Street to So-So Home Builder Results

Big Changes at Ginnie; GSE Updates; Zillow Buying Trulia?

Mortgage Rates Rise at Fastest Pace in Weeks

Housing Market Sending Mixed Signals -Freddie Mac

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Mortgage Rates Catch a Break Heading Into Important Week; Strong Reaction to Mediocre Home Builder Results; Big Changes at Ginnie Mae

Published: 7/25/2014

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MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Slightly Stronger Today, Capping Full Week of Gains

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by Matthew Graham on July 11 2014, 5:30 PM

Treasuries and MBS walked a cautious path to the exits today, staying perfectly inside the middle of yesterday's trading range. The overnight session was less dramatic than recent examples and Treasury trading in Asia/Europe seemed less interested...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Holding Decent Gains Without Help From Europe This Time

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by Matthew Graham on July 11 2014, 12:04 PM

Bond markets have been stronger today, and have carved out a linear trend of improvements from morning price levels. Interestingly enough, this strength is not something that's easily pinned on Europe or other overt factors. Treasuries have outperformed...
MBS Day Ahead: Empty Calendar Leaves Focus on Europe and Earnings

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by Matthew Graham on July 11 2014, 7:42 AM

There are no significant economic reports on the calendar today, and the week's auction cycle is already wrapped up. While there are two Fed speakers, the speeches are unlikely to be major market movers. That leaves Europe and Equities markets as...
MBS RECAP: Strong Start Thanks to Europe, Gradual Losses Leave Modest Gains Intact

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by Matthew Graham on July 10 2014, 4:30 PM

Eurozone contagion made an appearance today in much the same way it did for nearly all of 2010-2012. This time around, it's Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo causing problems for Portugal's sovereign borrowing costs. This in turn drove flights...
MBS MID-DAY: Stronger Start Thanks to Europe; Fading a Bit Ahead of Auction

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by Matthew Graham on July 10 2014, 12:27 PM

Core European debt markets set the tone for the overnight session. That means German Bunds big rally helped US Treasury yields move lower overnight. One of the key root causes for today's move is the same sort of EU contagion that was so prevalent...
MBS Day Ahead: Jobless Claims, Last Auction, and More NFP Reflections

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by Matthew Graham on July 10 2014, 7:39 AM

Let's do the same thing we did yesterday and get the daily analysis out of the way in one paragraph so I can wrap up the "NFP Reflections." Yesterday's got a bit wordy, so there's not much more to say, just some data that I put into...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Rally on Hidden Gem in FOMC Minutes

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by Matthew Graham on July 09 2014, 5:16 PM

While the overnight session was slightly weaker and the 10yr auction made things that much worse, the day's main event was undoubtedly the FOMC Minutes. There are two ways to look at the reaction. The less interesting, more cynical way to account...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Weaker Ahead of 10yr Auction/FOMC; MBS Underperform

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by Matthew Graham on July 09 2014, 12:09 PM

While MBS have made up some ground compared to Treasuries over the past few hours, they're generally underperforming this week. Fannie 3.5s are down 5 ticks today compared to Treasuries being down 3 ticks in price. The culprit is very likely the monthly...
MBS Day Ahead: Treasury Auction, FOMC Minutes, and Special NFP Reflections

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by Matthew Graham on July 09 2014, 7:55 AM

We'll get the normal "day ahead' stuff out of the way in a paragraph today because I spent most of my writing time on something I otherwise wasn't going to get to. There's not much to say about bond markets that continue trading in a range (marked by...
MBS RECAP: Participation Returns and Votes in Favor of Range

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by Matthew Graham on July 08 2014, 4:38 PM

Market participation was pathetic yesterday--the lightest session since at least April. Today was merely "average" but that's a huge improvement over yesterday. As markets regained a pulse, it beat steadily toward lower bond yields-- thus...
MBS MID-DAY: Holding Solid Gains With Help From Stocks and Europe

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by Matthew Graham on July 08 2014, 11:54 AM

With today continuing yesterday's tradition of offering very little by way of scheduled events, bond markets must look elsewhere for cues. Actually, that's not really a fair conclusion considering bond markets haven't really been paying much...
MBS Day Ahead: Surprisingly Enough, Still Fighting to Hold the Range

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by Matthew Graham on July 08 2014, 7:42 AM

"The range" is admittedly an overused term, and it requires constant contextual clarification. While various examples offer convenient connections between MBS and Treasuries, it's the latter that typically acts as the representative. Today's...
MBS RECAP: Slow Day; No Drama; No Data; No Reprices

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by Matthew Graham on July 07 2014, 4:48 PM

Today's session barely had a pulse. Weather is nice. It's the day after a 3-day weekend, and there was nothing meaningful on the event calendar. That made today a prime candidate for a 4-day weekend in financial markets. Not only does this affect...
MBS MID-DAY: Very Light Activity, but Moderately Positive; MBS Underperform

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by Matthew Graham on July 07 2014, 12:40 PM

From Thursday's latest levels, Fannie 3.5s are 3/32nds higher in price, compared to a 9/32nds gain in 10yr Treasuries (also in price). That means Treasuries are doing a bit better today. There's not much to infer here, and Treasuries had been...
MBS Day Ahead: Light Economic Calendar, FOMC Minutes, and Potential Change in Trend

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by Matthew Graham on July 07 2014, 7:32 AM

On the whole, 2014 has certainly seen a narrow range in rates, but within that broader range, we've still been able to witness distinct trends. For instance, rates were sideways to slightly higher in February and March, then moved convincingly lower...

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