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MBS RECAP: Slow, Steady Gains for Bond Markets

MBS MID-DAY: Uneventful Month-End Session; Little Impact From...

MBS Day Ahead: Today Probably Won't Decide the Permanent...

MBS RECAP: Strong Start, Much Weaker Finish as Corporate Deals...

MBS MID-DAY: Reprice Risk Mostly Dry as Bonds Cope with Post...

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Lessons for Europe from the US Housing Recovery

Construction Industry Optimism at 20-year High

Homebuyers were Busy in January; Pending Sales Rise

Note on VA Loans in Super Lien States; More on Oil's Impact...

Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Higher Ahead of GDP

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Construction Industry Optimism at 20-year High; Pending Home Sales Rise; Rates end Bad Month on Good Note

Published: 2/27/2015

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MBS RECAP: Heading Out at Best Levels After Shaking Off Post-Auction Weakness

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by Matthew Graham on February 12 2015, 5:03 PM

Bond markets were at their best levels since Monday heading into today's 1pm 30yr Bond auction (MBS prices don't reflect that only because of the roll). In so doing, they were rushing to price in a certain amount of positivity (or rather, a fear...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Improve After Data With Help From Europe

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by Matthew Graham on February 12 2015, 12:51 PM

The overnight session was scary for bond markets as 10yr yields rose to test the 2.04 technical level. Interestingly enough, trading went dead flat at the time, and didn't make a decision on where to go next until after the 8:30am data (roughly 3...
MBS Day Ahead: Action Packed Day: Important Econ Data, Final Auction, and More Euro-Schtick

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by Matthew Graham on February 12 2015, 7:32 AM

The news that keeps coming out of Europe is just too good not to have been scripted by some secret society of brilliant comedians. The dialogue between Greece and its creditors would make Abbot and Costello proud. In fact, it's too good to have even...
MBS RECAP: Late Day Grexit Head-Fake Delivers only Modest Volatility

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by Matthew Graham on February 11 2015, 5:29 PM

The last few highlighted comments at the bottom of this page tell the story of the late-day headlines. The first one caught markets' attention: RTRS- EU, GREECE COME TO AGREEMENT IN PRINCIPLE, MEETINGS TO CONTINUE-CNBC And a few minutes later, the...
MBS MID-DAY: Treasuries Under Pressure Ahead of Auction; MBS Somewhat Affected

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by Matthew Graham on February 11 2015, 12:34 PM

Today has turned out to be a total dud so far in terms of actionable information for traders. Although there's still technically time, we've seen absolutely nothing of interest come out of today's Eurogroup meeting. And that's not to say...
MBS Day Ahead: Important 48 hours for Europe; US Bond Markets Thinking About Support

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by Matthew Graham on February 11 2015, 7:32 AM

Europe is a tangled mess of politics and bureaucracy that puts anything else to shame. Why do I say this? First, because it's true. Second, and more importantly, I need to preemptively cover myself in case any of the following isn't accurate....
MBS RECAP: Bonds Stay on the Ropes Ahead of European Meetings and Auctions

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by Matthew Graham on February 10 2015, 5:30 PM

Bond markets got the 3yr Treasury auction out of the way today. While it was noticeably positive for Treasuries, it was the least potent of the 3 in terms of market movement potential. 10's and 30's are yet to come in the next two days. Along...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Little-Changed, Listening to Greece's Prank Phone Calls

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by Matthew Graham on February 10 2015, 12:22 PM

If I didn't know any better (and I might not), I'd guess that someone from Greece is calling up news organizations and pretending to be an EU official, claiming that the two sides are close to reaching a compromise deal. Whether it was a Greek...
MBS Day Ahead: Recent Pain for US Bond Market May Just be Price of Admission

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by Matthew Graham on February 10 2015, 7:37 AM

Remember 2008 though the middle of 2011, or the 2nd half of 2013? Me neither, but I went back and read a few of my old posts and think I have a pretty good idea of what happened. One of the key differences between that time frame and everything since...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Lose Ground After Head-Fake Toward Modest Gains

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by Matthew Graham on February 09 2015, 7:16 PM

After Friday's aggressive sell-off, bond markets managed only a modest bounce back before acquiescing to even weaker levels by the close. There were no data or headline events to motivate any salient runs in either direction today. This remained true...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Trying to Hold Near Friday's Weakest Levels

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by Matthew Graham on February 09 2015, 12:56 PM

The most interesting news overnight was the reaffirmation from Greek leaders that the country is done with austerity, no matter the cost. At this point, European trading levels are suggesting two things that didn't used to go together: a Greek Eurozone...
MBS Week Ahead: Light Domestic Calendar Leaves Focus on Eurozone as Greece Doubles Down

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by Matthew Graham on February 09 2015, 7:34 AM

In many ways, the current tussle between Greece and its creditors is reminiscent of past iterations. There's some bluffing, posturing, lying, feigned ignorance, and outlandish goals that both sides know will never be achieved. Past iterations have...
MBS RECAP: February Continues to be the Un-January; Jobs Report Pushes the Pace

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by Matthew Graham on February 06 2015, 6:13 PM

In a real sense, today's bond market weakness was nothing more than a continuation of February's existing trend on steroids. Multiple asset classes had been moving away from risk into the end of January and have quickly been reversing those positions...
MBS MID-DAY: Ugly Morning For Bond Markets; Strong Jobs Numbers Add to Pain

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by Matthew Graham on February 06 2015, 2:07 PM

This morning's MUCH -stronger than expected NFP hit bond markets while they were already on the back foot in terms of the February trend. It followed another "higher low" in German Bunds, which is one of the main co-indicators of Treasury...
MBS Day Ahead: Here's Why NFP Means Absolutely Nothing Past the Next Few Hours

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by Matthew Graham on February 06 2015, 7:05 AM

Oh man... I'm about to say some crazy stuff . If I could go back in time one year and tell myself "hey, past self, in a year you're going to write an article and make a crazy chart claiming that NFP doesn't matter any more," I might...

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Although there was a brief move to the lows of the day just after the noon hour, MBS have been doing a fine job of holding almost all of the gains from...
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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.77%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.08%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.77%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-16 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 110-26 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 112-06 (-0-02)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -13.19%
|
Refinance Index -15.99%
|
Purchase Index -7.08%

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