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MBS RECAP: Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep...

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MBS RECAP: Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range?

MBS Week Ahead: Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range?

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MBS RECAP: It Could Have Been a Lot Worse

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by Matthew Graham on September 09 2020, 3:09 PM

It Could Have Been a Lot Worse Although the bond market definitely had its own reasons to weaken last Friday, stocks have been making big enough moves to complicate things. Simply put, we've had to wonder if bonds would be doing even worse if not...
MBS RECAP: Some Cause For Concern, Despite The Gains

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by Matthew Graham on September 08 2020, 4:40 PM

Stock Market Weakness To The Rescue Last Friday tied August 11th as the worst day of since early June. It was something the bond market clearly felt needed to happen (weaker stocks were little help). The day before, however, stock selling definitely helped...
MBS Week Ahead: Stock Market Weakness To The Rescue

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by Matthew Graham on September 08 2020, 9:08 AM

Up until last Friday, bonds had improved decisively for 5 consecutive days. It's fairly rare to see these sorts of winning streaks last more than 5 days, and this time was no exception. In fact, traders went out of their way to sell bonds aggressively...
MBS RECAP: Today’s Weakness Made Sense? Great… So Now What?

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by Matthew Graham on September 04 2020, 4:31 PM

Perfect Storm in Bonds Pushing Yields Quickly Higher Between the 5-day rally running the risk of getting tired, the technical resistance at .63%, the artificial extension of the rally thanks to huge stock selling, and the upcoming 3-day weekend, it made...
MBS Day Ahead: Short-Term Caution; Longer-Term Optimism

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by Matthew Graham on September 04 2020, 9:36 AM

Due to the "anything can happen" nature of financial markets AND the fact that traders can trade what we can predict, I rarely take an unequivocal stand when it comes to the immediate future. Yesterday was about as close as I get , apart from...
MBS RECAP: Lock vs Float Considerations Ahead of NFP and Holiday Weekend

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by Matthew Graham on September 03 2020, 4:58 PM

Lock vs Float Considerations Ahead of NFP and Holiday Weekend Bonds did well at face value today, but there are so many "yeah buts." First off, stocks were hugely lower and that definitely helped bonds. We're also closing out our 5th straight...
MBS Day Ahead: Is The Bond Market's Luck Running Out? We'll Know Soon

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by Matthew Graham on September 03 2020, 9:34 AM

The premise for today is remarkably simple. In fact, it really doesn't need many words by the time you see the first chart. After Powell and the Fed's framework change caused a spike in bond yields last week, we've recovered by almost perfectly...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Confirm The Breakout, But There Are 2 Ways to Play It

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by Matthew Graham on September 02 2020, 3:40 PM

Bonds Confirm The Breakout, But There Are 2 Ways to Play It Today offers firm confirmation of the range breakout we'd been hoping to see this week. These sorts of breakouts are positive signals in the bigger picture, but risk-averse rate watchers...
MBS Day Ahead: Last Week's Fed Scare is Bringing Out Bond Buyers

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by Matthew Graham on September 02 2020, 9:20 AM

If you're like me, your initial impression of the financial market is that it's "thing" with a mind of its own-- always on , always moving, with thousands of interested parties moving money at any given millisecond. To some extent, that's...
MBS RECAP: New Month, New Trend?

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by Matthew Graham on September 01 2020, 4:05 PM

New Month, New Trend? We often see a clear bias toward strength or weakness during any given month in the bond market. If July clearly marked a trend toward lower rates and August was the complete opposite, are we about to see another shift toward lower...
MBS Day Ahead: New Month, New Trend?

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by Matthew Graham on September 01 2020, 9:06 AM

While it's definitely not a hard and fast rule, we often see a clear bias toward strength or weakness during any given month in the bond market. July was unequivocally stronger , lining up almost perfectly with the most recent down-trend in yields...
MBS RECAP: Some Reassurance, But We’re Not Out Of The Woods

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by Matthew Graham on August 31 2020, 3:44 PM

Bonds Making Case For Friendly Technical Bounce Last Friday, we were already eyeing the technical ceiling at .79% and asking "was that it?" A the new week begins with what some might call incredibly even-keeled and relatively ample bond buying...
MBS Week Ahead: Brave New World or Business as Usual

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by Matthew Graham on August 31 2020, 9:28 AM

Just like early June, we're once again forced to consider that several weeks of upward movement in yields means the lows are behind us for now. Just like early June, there are reasons to doubt that and reasons to fear it. On one hand , we could make...
MBS RECAP: Nice Recovery Today, But Is It a Trap?

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2020, 4:45 PM

Nice Recovery Today, But Is It a Trap? If the Fed is doubling down on its inflation goals, it makes sense for bonds to be afraid--at least a little bit. But with today seeing yields hold the same ceiling as yesterday, are we already in a position to ask...
MBS Day Ahead: Is The Fed's Surprise Announcement Actually Completely Logical?

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2020, 10:06 AM

Yesterday was "interesting," to say the least. The Fed surprised markets with another unscheduled policy update and bonds traded accordingly. The surprise in question was an exceedingly well understood shift in the Fed's inflation framework...

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MBS Outperform; Bonds Stay Defiantly Sideways Overall The stock market tried a few different moves on the bond market today and while correlation is still...
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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 2.98%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.61%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.35%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-04 (-0-00)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-17 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 110-14 (0-00)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -4.81%
|
Refinance Index -6.51%
|
Purchase Index -1.87%

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