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MBS RECAP: Token Rally a Small Concession For Recent Selling Spree

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by Matthew Graham on September 29 2021, 4:17 PM

Token Rally a Small Concession For Recent Selling Spree After 4 straight days of heavy selling pressure, bonds finally found their footing today. Pessimists took offense to the underwhelming size of the rally while optimists were grateful that it didn't...
MBS Morning: Buyers Finally Showing Up. Will They Stick Around?

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by Matthew Graham on September 29 2021, 10:39 AM

When bonds sell off as decisively as they have over the last 4 trading sessions, it's only a matter of time before buyers push back. The bigger the selling spree and the longer it lasts, the more certain we can be of such a push back. The last major...
MBS RECAP: Here's What's NOT Moving The Bond Market

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by Matthew Graham on September 28 2021, 4:50 PM

Here's What's NOT Moving The Bond Market Another day, another surprisingly brisk selling spree in the bond market. Unlike several recent examples where the end of a Treasury auction cycle brought some relief for negative momentum, this week's...
MBS Morning: Bond Traders' Game Plan: Sell First, Ask "Why" Later

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by Matthew Graham on September 28 2021, 10:02 AM

Momentum, macroeconomic considerations, and Fed policy continue to dominate the bond market since last Thursday as traders are swept up in the widespread repricing of risk. While the Fed announcement was at ground zero, it's not the only game in town...
MBS RECAP: Losses Continue Despite Decent 5yr Treasury Auction

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by Matthew Graham on September 27 2021, 4:29 PM

Losses Continue Despite Decent 5yr Treasury Auction Today's 5yr Treasury auction was respectable with the investors bidding 2.37 dollars for each dollar offered--perfectly matching the recent average for that statistic. The yield award was slightly...
MBS Morning: Bonds Rush to Test Higher Ceilings Before Auction Cycle

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by Matthew Graham on September 27 2021, 9:50 AM

At the end of last week, we noted the looming Treasury auction cycle at the start of this week. Due to calendar constraints, it's earlier than normal and more condensed (2 auctions Monday and one on Tuesday as opposed to the typical T-W-Th format...
MBS RECAP: Range Breakout or New Trend Channel?

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by Matthew Graham on September 24 2021, 3:37 PM

Range Breakout or New Trend Channel? It was an interesting trading session in the bond market as Treasury yields closed at their weakest levels at the same time that MBS were at their strongest levels. This uncommon scenario was made possible by a combination...
MBS Morning: The Breakout is Here. What Now?

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by Matthew Graham on September 24 2021, 10:47 AM

As early as 4 months ago, we'd been eyeing late September as do or die time for the low rate environment. By early September, we had a very clear picture of the consolidation pattern in rates and very clear notion of this week's Fed announcement...
MBS RECAP: What's Up With Today's Big Sell-Off?

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by Matthew Graham on September 23 2021, 2:41 PM

What's Up With Today's Big Sell-Off? It's not nearly as surprising to see bond yields breaking technical ceilings today as it was to see them bouncing at a technical floor yesterday. By confirming the taper timeline, the Fed effectively stood...
MBS Morning: Bonds Choosing a Side After Fed Day

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by Matthew Graham on September 23 2021, 10:03 AM

Wednesday's reaction to the Fed was essentially a non-reaction with yields ending the day very close to pre-Fed levels. Traders were more willing to make stronger bets in the overnight session and that momentum is gathering steam at the start of the...
MBS RECAP: Powell Confirms Taper Timeline, But Bonds Barely Budge

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by Matthew Graham on September 22 2021, 4:31 PM

Powell Effectively Confirms November Taper Barring NFP Catastrophe Bonds reacted well to the initial Fed announcement and economic projections, but reversed course during Fed Chair Powell's press conference. Powell pulled no punches in confirming...
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on September 22 2021, 2:01 PM

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals. With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators...
MBS Morning: Tapering Should Remain on Hold, But Still Lots to Consider on Fed Day

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by Matthew Graham on September 22 2021, 10:02 AM

We've been pining for this particular Fed day for weeks, at least. In fact, as early as June 1st, we pointed out that Fed speakers seemed to suggest their decision-making hands were tied until they could observe labor market changes at the start of...
MBS RECAP: A Few Strategy Considerations Ahead of The Fed

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by Matthew Graham on September 21 2021, 3:54 PM

"Inside Day" Placeholder Ahead of Wednesday's Main Event The AM commentary revisited and reiterated the consolidation range that's been intact for more than a month. As far back as 2.5 weeks ago (after the last jobs report) it became...
MBS Morning: With 1 Day Left, Pre-Fed Range Remains Intact

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by Matthew Graham on September 21 2021, 9:54 AM

Trading ranges and consolidation patterns can make for tedious discussion when they're well-behaved for weeks on end. We began discussing the current example in mid-August when the 1.38% ceiling was first rejected. The following week suggested it...

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