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MBS RECAP: Markets Finally Doing Interesting Things, But...

MBS Day Ahead: The Obvious Bounce Could Be Too Obvious

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Digest ECB and Disease Risks

MBS Day Ahead: Infinite Faith vs Infinite Resignation: Bond Market...

MBS Week Ahead: Light Data Week Leaves Focus Overseas

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Client Engagement, Sales, API Products; Coronavirus Scare; ECB's...

Here's How The Average Loan Looked in December

Foreclosures at 14-Year Low; Loan "Mortality" up 126...

Non-QM, Loan Trading Products; Comp Survey; Moderate Expansion...

Mortgage Rates Maintaining Longer-Term Lows For Now

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MBS Week Ahead: Abbreviated Holiday Week

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by Matthew Graham on December 23 2019, 8:49 AM

Bond markets will be closed for Christmas on Wednesday and only open for a half day on Tuesday. Even on the remaining days of the week, volume and liquidity will be mere shadows of their normal selves and trading momentum can arrive and depart for no...
MBS Day Ahead: 4 Ways to Look at The Trend Heading Into Year-End

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by Matthew Graham on December 20 2019, 9:41 AM

For all practical purposes, today is the last trading day of the year. In fact, based on volumes so far, today may actually be the first day of the winter holiday break. Either way, we've certainly passed to last of 2019's "high consequence...
MBS RECAP: Bonds End Roughly Flat After a Few Lead Changes

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by Matthew Graham on December 19 2019, 4:46 PM

First thing's first: putting too much time/thought into the writing or reading of bond market analysis this time of year isn't really necessary. If that changes, rest assured I'm watching out for such things and ready to discuss them. If it...
MBS Day Ahead: No, Bonds Don't Care About Impeachment (Or Much Else, For Now)

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by Matthew Graham on December 19 2019, 8:39 AM

My 12-year old emails me from the next room when he's doing homework sometimes. It only happens a few times a year and only when it's really serious. Last night it was to ask if I was aware that "they" might impeach Trump today. Without...
MBS RECAP: Uneventful on The Surface, But Plenty of Weakness

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by Matthew Graham on December 18 2019, 5:00 PM

Frustrating day for market watchers today as bonds suffered moderate losses despite a complete absence of any compelling market movers. These sorts of things happen from time to time, but they tend to happen more readily as we approach the least liquid...
MBS Day Ahead: Revisiting What We Mean by 'Month-End'

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by Matthew Graham on December 18 2019, 9:18 AM

With trading activity rapidly winding down and with the end of the year rapidly approaching, rather than send you a forced rehash of the same old commentary from the past few days (seriously, yesterday's comments are just as relevant today), I will...
MBS Day Ahead: Sights Set on 2020, Hoping For Low Drama Holidays

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by Matthew Graham on December 17 2019, 9:35 AM

Based on volumes, liquidity, and most importantly, the calendar itself, there's a compelling case to be made for closing the book on 2019 as a trading year and picking things back up with 2020 developments. Why would we throw away 2 weeks of trading...
MBS RECAP: Friday's Rally Called a Head-Fake by Today's Trading

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by Matthew Graham on December 16 2019, 5:40 PM

Friday was a somewhat glorious day for bond markets, but perhaps only because Thursday was so terrible. Both of those sessions were completely driven by trade-related updates as the US and China worked toward putting out what some might call a lackluster...
MBS Week Ahead: Despite Friendly Friday Bounce, Risks Remain

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by Matthew Graham on December 16 2019, 9:14 AM

Have you ever worried about the negative repercussions of some anticipated event in your life only to find out they weren't so bad? For the bond market, last Friday was one of those days. The much-anticipated phase 1 trade deal was (kind of) announced...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Erase Losses as Trade Deal Underwhelms

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by Matthew Graham on December 13 2019, 5:10 PM

Bonds were leading off in a slightly friendly direction during the overnight session, largely because we hadn't really heard from China with respect to yesterday's trade deal drama. Nonetheless, it seemed like more concrete steps were being taken...
So Much Trade War Drama, But Bonds in a Range

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by Matthew Graham on December 13 2019, 11:05 AM

The litany of updates/alerts listed below effectively serves to frame the launch sequence for today's trading. If you don't care to wade through the minutia, just read the most recent update or simply allow me to paraphrase: There was some confusion...
MBS Day Ahead: A New Way to Look at The Range

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by Matthew Graham on December 12 2019, 9:15 AM

Yesterday brought a nice little rally in response to a surprisingly rate-friendly press conference with Fed Chair Powell. The counterpoint to that conclusion is seen in the chart I posted in yesterday's recap. Specifically, bonds began the day rallying...
MBS RECAP: Fed Proves Surprisingly Capable of Intraday Inspiration

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by Matthew Graham on December 11 2019, 4:55 PM

We moved from NFP not mattering (and then causing a surprisingly big intraday stir) to the Fed undergoing quite a similar routine. Granted, in the bigger picture, neither event will be memorable or have a lasting impact on rate momentum, but they both...
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on December 11 2019, 2:02 PM

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in SeptemberOctober indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months...
MBS Day Ahead: Fed Reading From Same Script as Jobs Report

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by Matthew Graham on December 11 2019, 8:32 AM

Last week, I stunned the world by claiming that NFP (the nonfarm payrolls component of the big jobs report) "didn't matter." OK, maybe not the whole world, and maybe people weren't completely stunned, but in the long-term market following...

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MND NewsWire

Here's How The Average Loan Looked in December

The average interest rate on closed loans inched up in December and the share of those loans that were for refinancing moved lower. Ellie Mae's Origination...
MND NewsWire

Foreclosures at 14-Year Low; Loan "Mortality"...

Even though many of the measures are already at record lows, mortgage delinquencies continue to tick downward according to Black Knight's "first look"...
Pipeline Press

Non-QM, Loan Trading Products; Comp Survey; Moderate...

Did you know that you can vote by smart phone in Seattle ? Did you know that less than 20 percent of the world's population has ever taken a single flight...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Digest ECB and Disease Risks

The bond market--widely expected to have been launching yields up and over 2% in 2020--is instead in the process of testing it's best levels since...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Maintaining Longer-Term Lows For Now

Mortgage rates remained in line with 3-month lows today for the average lender. Several lenders offered marginally better terms compared to yesterday,...
MND NewsWire

Existing Home Sales Highest in Nearly 2 Years

Existing home sales rose convincingly in December, gaining 3.6 percent compared to sales the prior month. Sales of all existing home types , single-family...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Infinite Faith vs Infinite Resignation...

You know things are bad when I resort to invoking Kierkegaard in bond market commentary, but that's what it's come to. Our quest to observe something...
MND NewsWire

Home Prices Still Growing at More than 5% Annually

The annual rate of home price increases continued at a stable rate in November according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), however there are...
Pipeline Press

Warehouse, Broker Products; M&A With Lenders and...

What does $4.6 billion dollars buy you these days? A couple casinos: a Blackstone-sponsored JV is paying that for MGM Grand and Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas...
MND NewsWire

Fannie Predicts Pick-Up in Residential Construction...

In its first economic forecast of 2020, Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group is doubling down on its late 2019 predictions. The economists...
MND NewsWire

Mortgage Application Volume Retains Most of Last Week's...

The volume of mortgage applications submitted during the week ended January 17 slowed after a strong performance - a 30.2 percent increase - the prior...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Back to 3-Month Lows

Mortgage rates dropped to begin the holiday-shortened week as markets expressed a bit of panic over the coronavirus outbreak in China. This is similar...
MND NewsWire

Gen Z and Millennials Plan on Buying Homes in Larger...

The share of adults who told the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) they were considering a home purchase in the next year has now fallen year...
MBS Commentary

MBS Week Ahead: Light Data Week Leaves Focus Overseas...

In addition to being a 4-day trading week due to yesterday's holiday, there's also a general lack of big-ticket economic data on tap. In fact,...
Pipeline Press

Non-QM, Digital Tools; Population Shifts in Lending;...

Everyone is aging, right? “I finally did it! I bought a new pair of shoes with memory foam insoles. No more forgetting why I walked into the kitchen...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Cap Extraordinarily Tame Week Despite...

We've seen a whole lot more movement in the bond market for a whole lot less motivation than we had this week. Back to back econ data shockers (Philly...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Off Recent Lows

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher over the past two days as strong economic data and corporate earnings coaxed investors into riskier assets like stocks...
MBS Commentary

Markets Wrapping Things Up Ahead of Long Weekend

Sometimes the market moves in clear response to a headline event or the scheduled release of an economic report. We have clear examples of this recently...
MND NewsWire

December's Housing Starts Surged to 13-Year High

While permits fell from the previous month, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development said December was another exceptional...
Pipeline Press

Renovation Products; CEOs Can't Ignore LIBOR Transition;...

I’ve gotta hand it to those writers who put out listings for real estate agents. Maybe if I had a bunch of money I could live in a “secluded...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.61%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.22%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.69%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 105-26 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 107-04 (0-06)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 107-21 (-0-04)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -1.21%
|
Refinance Index -1.77%
|
Purchase Index -2.01%

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