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MBS RECAP: Does Oil Matter to Rates?

MBS Day Ahead: It's Still a Correction Unless The Fed Says...

MBS Day Ahead: As 1.80% Gives Way in 10yr Yields, What Would...

MBS RECAP: Game Over? Maybe, Maybe Not...

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Get First Opportunity to Reverse Curse After...

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Broker Products; Vendor Developments; Rate Volatility Increase

Mortgage Rates' Week Goes From Bad to Worse

Tariffs are Creating a Perfect Storm for Builders

DPA, HELOC, Non-QM Products; Lender Flood News; What's Driving...

Worst Week For Mortgage Rates Since 2016

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Rates Recover Modestly, But Uncertainty Remains Ahead of Fed Day

Published: 9/16/2019

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MBS RECAP: MBS Outperform as Treasuries Continue Correcting

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by Matthew Graham on August 22 2019, 4:18 PM

Today's most prominent trade was the reaction to the 9:45am Markit PMI data. Several of the metrics were at their weakest levels since 2009. The composite PMI was the lowest since record keeping began. That means that the services sector is starting...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Set to Spar With Key Yield Ceiling

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by Matthew Graham on August 22 2019, 8:52 AM

In the day just passed, bonds digested and reacted to the minutes from the latest Fed meeting (from late July). Given that the Fed cut rates at that meeting and that many speakers have made themselves clear, there wasn't much left to be gleaned from...
MBS RECAP: Jerky Knees After Fed

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by Matthew Graham on August 21 2019, 5:33 PM

Today brought the (not very) much-anticipated FOMC Minutes--a more detailed account of the conversation that transpired at the end of July when the Fed announced its rate cut. As expected, some at the Fed wanted to cut more. Some wanted to cut less. The...
MBS Day Ahead: Consolidating Into Fed Minutes, But Not Because They Guarantee a Breakout

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by Matthew Graham on August 21 2019, 10:14 AM

In the day just passed, a modest uptrend in yields was "defeated" from a technical standpoint. Yields broke below a trend-line marking "higher lows" that began last Thursday afternoon and spent the rest of the day moving mostly sideways...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Reject Bad Break, But What's Next?

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by Matthew Graham on August 20 2019, 5:41 PM

Bonds were breathing easy by the time the domestic session got underway. Before that, they kicked off the overnight session in lower yield territory. Modest gains meant a friendly break below the potentially troubling resistance trend that had developed...
MBS Day Ahead: Apparently, It's Not Over Yet

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by Matthew Graham on August 20 2019, 8:59 AM

In the day just passed, we considered a rather melodramatic question ("is it over?"), which refers to the general strength in the bond market seen in August and our ability to maintain (or improve upon) the lowest rates in 3 years. Early weakness...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Face Some Pressure as Correction Extends

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by Matthew Graham on August 19 2019, 5:59 PM

There haven't been many market moving headlines over the past 2 days with the exception of Germany removing the veil of secrecy from its fiscal stimulus discussions. That hit bonds on Friday and again in the overnight session. Otherwise, we've...
MBS Day Ahead: Is It Over?

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by Matthew Graham on August 19 2019, 9:24 AM

In the week just passed, bonds rallied to new long-term low yields before bouncing on Friday. Hong Kong protests over the weekend kicked things off on a strong note and weak global economic data on Wednesday sparked the next leg of the rally. Thursday...
MBS RECAP: Relative Stability + Moderate Losses = MBS Fighting Back

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by Matthew Graham on August 16 2019, 4:54 PM

Perhaps more than any other day in the past few weeks, today stood as an example of the mortgage market's ability to put up a fight when the time is right. As we've discussed frequently, they've been getting pummeled by Treasuries as the latter's...
MBS Day Ahead: How Low Can We Go? And Why Mortgage Rates Can't...

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by Matthew Graham on August 16 2019, 11:28 AM

10yr yields rallied aggressively yesterday, and for no reason more compelling than a proverbial "snowball rally compounded by technicals and algorithmic trading." Ugh! I hate typing that stuff. It's annoying to be forced to reduce market...
MBS RECAP: Mortgage Market Starting to Play Like it Wants to Stay In The Game (Finally)

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by Matthew Graham on August 15 2019, 5:35 PM

Bonds digested the week's busiest day of economic data, by far, today. But markets in general are only interested in data that changes the economic narrative. Today's only real candidate in that regard would have been a surprisingly weak Retail...
MBS Day Ahead: Active Day For Data

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by Matthew Graham on August 15 2019, 8:37 AM

In the day just passed, bond markets primarily reacted to overseas economic data with many of the reports in Europe coming in flat to weaker. Combined with the weakest Chinese manufacturing data in years, it was enough to push bonds through recent resistance...
MBS RECAP: Have You Heard The One About Mortgage Underperformance?!

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by Matthew Graham on August 14 2019, 7:00 PM

Living under a rock has a lot of advantages: generally low housing cost, durability, no roof maintenance, and if you're strong enough, you have something to throw at anyone who approaches your castle in a threatening way. The disadvantages may be...
MBS Day Ahead: Suddenly, Bonds Are Pretty Sure The Global Economy is Doomed

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by Matthew Graham on August 14 2019, 10:50 AM

In the day just passed, bonds sold off by a completely average amount in the context of recent volatility and new trading range. Motivations were above-board and easy to confirm (trade war headlines). The move was mirrored in stocks and other assets....
MBS RECAP: Old Friend Spoils What Might Have Been a Calm Day

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by Matthew Graham on August 13 2019, 6:07 PM

Bonds began the day in relatively unchanged territory versus yesterday's close and soon encountered the slightly stronger CPI data (2.2 vs 2.1% for CORE CPI). This gave the appearance of selling pressure for a few minutes, but as expected, it was...

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MND NewsWire

Tariffs are Creating a Perfect Storm for Builders

The California Building Industry Association (CBIA) is calling the Trump Administration tariffs the "perfect storm" for the state's already troubled housing...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: As 1.80% Gives Way in 10yr Yields, What...

In the day just passed, bonds got our hopes up early with an initially positive reaction to the ECB announcement. We were even in the green for most of...
Pipeline Press

DPA, HELOC, Non-QM Products; Lender Flood News; What's...

Any month that starts on a Sunday contains a Friday the 13th. The superstitious sufferers of “triskaidekaphobia” try to avoid bad luck by keeping...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Game Over? Maybe, Maybe Not...

10yr yields hit 1.80% today. Using the power of the MBS Live search feature, I compiled the following list to put 1.80% in context: "I'd be looking...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Worst Week For Mortgage Rates Since 2016

Mortgage rates didn't have a great day today, moving even higher from what were already the worst levels in a month as of yesterday afternoon. In and of...
MND NewsWire

Are Lenders Anticipating a Slowdown? Available Credit...

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says its Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) suffered its largest decline in eight months in August. The Index...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Get First Opportunity to Reverse...

In the day just passed, the recent bond market selling-spree showed its first serious signs of leveling off since it began one week ago. This wasn't...
Pipeline Press

Capital Markets Products; Training and Events, Some...

I apologize in advance for the length of today’s commentary, but there’s a lot going on! Ask any economist if rent control works, and they’ll...
MND NewsWire

Fraud Risk Decreases on a Wave of Refi Activity

Mortgage application fraud declined in the second quarter of this year. CoreLogic's report on the incidence says that one out of every 123 mortgage applications...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bond Correction Takes The Day Off

Bond traders took a break from their newfound hobby of the past 5 business days: relentlessly selling bonds . Maybe they want to branch out and try new...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Steady at Recent Highs

Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged today for the average lender as underlying bond markets finally calmed down. Over the past few days, bond yields...
MND NewsWire

Lenders See Demand and Profits Expanding, While Credit...

Mortgage lenders reflected a lot of optimism about their business prospects in the third quarter Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey conducted by Fannie Mae...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Be Very Skeptical of Rate Forecasts...

In the day just passed, bonds kicked into higher gear with respect to the correction that began to materialize last Thursday. If you feel like you missed...
Pipeline Press

Non-QM, Branding, Correspondent Products; Origination...

Is our housing system a dumpster fire ?” (I don’t think so; we have hundreds of thousands helping millions every year although F&F would...
MND NewsWire

Mortgage Apps Found Gains in a Holiday-Shortened Week

Although the week ended September 7 was shortened by the Labor Day holiday, mortgage application volume managed an increase. It was the first week-over...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Have You Heard The One About The Bond Market...

Bonds continued to sell-off again today--this time slightly more aggressively than yesterday. Yes, the current spike in yields/rates is frustrating, but...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Highest in More Than a Month

Mortgage rates and the broader bond market are both in the midst of a correction after hitting the best levels in more than 3 years last week. This is...
MND NewsWire

Some States Showing Signs of Stress, Delinquencies...

While it doesn't appear to be of "canary in the coalmine" magnitude, CoreLogic notes that there were annual increases in the delinquency rates of eight...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Keeping an Eye on Corrective Trend as...

In the day just passed, bonds began the week with a resolute sell-off that broke through an important overhead ceiling in 10yr yields (1.62). Weakness...
Pipeline Press

Warehouse, Broker Products; Current Economic Picture

The gap between the haves and have-nots continues to widen. Though the wealth of U.S. households has eclipsed $100 trillion, the wealthy have primarily...

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Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.87%

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