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The Day Ahead: Recent Volatility Might be Logical

MBS RECAP: Another Hopeful Morning Dashed by Defensive Reality

MBS MID-DAY: Morning Gains Give Way to Mid-Day Rout (again)

The Week Ahead: No Scheduled Data Before Wednesday's Important...

MBS RECAP: Reminded of Volatility via Friday Cliff-Diving

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Mortgage Rates Near 2013 Highs to Start Week

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Housing Recovery and Price Appreciation to Continue; Mortgage Rates Near 12-mo Highs; MBA Suggests New Approach To Risk-Sharing

Published: 5/20/2013

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The Day Ahead: Data Slightly Less Absent; Auction Cycle Begins

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by Matthew Graham on May 07 2013, 7:37 AM

Monday stood a chance to be eventful, if for no other reason than it was the first day back after Friday's mega NFP sell-off. It turned out to be extra calm , but still managed to offer clues about what might be going on . Such clues could continue to...
MBS RECAP: Weaker Into Afternoon, But Close To Friday's Levels

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May 06 2013, 4:06 PM

"Overall, only small numbers of domestic respondents reported changes in either standards or demand for any type of residential real estate lending during the previous three months, with the exception of a significant net fraction of banks that indicated...
MBS MID-DAY: Ongoing Grind Near Friday's Lows

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May 06 2013, 11:06 AM

When sell-offs like Friday's happen--the kind that are big enough in terms of movement and volume to cause concerns about a broader shift--it can have negative implications for MBS. This has to do with the underlying rate environment running an increased...
The Week Ahead: Friday's Sell-Off was Intense. Now What?

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by Matthew Graham on May 06 2013, 7:21 AM

Apart from a round of Treasury auctions , the week ahead is exceptionally silent, with Thursday's initial Jobless Claims data being the only quasi-significant piece of domestic economic data. That's not to say that nothing will happen in terms of trading...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Pummeled, More To Come?

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May 03 2013, 4:06 PM

Negative reprice risk has been and will continue to be a constant companion for the rest of the day. Whereas prices were close enough to 10am levels to logically argue for less reprice risk an hour ago, that's not the case to the same extent now. Even...
MBS Hit Three Week Lows After Jobs Report, Holding There For Now

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May 03 2013, 11:06 AM

- Factory Orders -4.0 vs -2.6 consensus - Excluding Transportation -2.0 vs -0.7 previously - Computers/Electronics orders +0.5 vs -2.5 previously - Market Reaction: Same boat at ISM, but a less significant report. Not much of an impact, and not enough...
The Day Ahead: Assessing Post-NFP Possibilities

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by Matthew Graham on May 03 2013, 8:15 AM

Baseball has been very very good to us--doing a relatively perfect job of helping us characterize the "lead-off" that bond markets have been taking since their recent sideways grind gave way to the NFP approach. Now that we've made it to the day itself...
MBS RECAP: Mario Washes Out Stronger Claims; NFP Tomorrow

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May 02 2013, 4:06 PM

MBS Prices have declined into the afternoon, but gently so. From highs of 104-23, Fannie 3.0s have edged lower to 104-20, briefly hitting 104-19 before bouncing up slightly. This isn't necessarily high drama on a day that's only managed a 6 tick...
MBS MID-DAY: Working Through Weakness After Jobless Claims Data

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May 02 2013, 11:06 AM

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving lower for the fifth consecutive week amid the weaker than expected first quarter economic growth advance estimate...
The Day Ahead: Last Call For EU to Shake Things up Before Tomorrow's Jobs Report

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by Matthew Graham on May 02 2013, 8:14 AM

A few friends have mentioned that it's baseball season currently, making the recent metaphorical usage of "lead-off's" in bond markets all the more germane. So in the spirit of the season, let's continue with lead-off's. It all begins with Rod Carew ...
MBS RECAP: Defensive Rally Into Fed Fades After Status Quo Statement

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May 01 2013, 4:06 PM

Just a quick update following the moderate fall from the highs after FOMC... We've been mostly holding steady at similar price levels as the last alert, but without a resoundingly positive bounce back to previous highs. In fact, we're close to...
Differences Between Current And Previous FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on May 01 2013, 2:01 PM

Release Date: March 20, May 1, 2013 For immediate release Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January March suggests a return to moderate that economic growth following activity has been expanding at a pause late last year...
MBS MID-DAY: New Highs of The Year Ahead of FOMC

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May 01 2013, 11:06 AM

- ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.7 vs 50.9 forecast - Prices Paid 50.0 vs 53.0 forecast - New Orders rise slightly, 52.3 vs 51.4 previously - Employment 50.2 vs 54.2 previously - PMI lowest since Dec - Employment lowest since Nov - Prices lowest since July...
The Day Ahead: Bond Markets Lead-Off, Here's the Pitch!

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by Matthew Graham on May 01 2013, 7:37 AM

The bases may not be loaded yet for MBS or our preferred directional guidance giver Treasuries, but at two runners are on, and both are taking their lead-offs. For MBS, this means that Fannie 3.0s have extended above the 104-19 levels that have capped...
MBS RECAP: More Intraday Volatility But Little-Changed at The Close

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April 30 2013, 4:06 PM

After losing almost all of the day's gains heading into the noon hour, MBS have managed to hold steady since then. Apple's colossal corporate bond offering (a record $17 bln) contributed to a bounce back from the best levels of the year at 10am...

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