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MBS RECAP: Quietest Day of The Week Despite Several Interesting...

MBS Day Ahead: Bond Traders Eyeing The Exits As Flat Week Winds...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Modestly Stronger, But Sideways Theme Remains

MBS Day Ahead: Clearly a Waiting Game, but For How Long?

MBS RECAP: Summertime Sideways

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Prepayment Rate and Refinanceable Population Have Both Soared

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MBS Week Ahead: Bonds Set to Battle a Familiar Enemy

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by Matthew Graham on June 05 2017, 9:10 AM

There are two white lines in today's chart. Each represents the pace of the two most recent rallies in rates (with the latter being the current rally) by connecting the trend of "lower highs." The yellow lines denote "the gap"...
MBS RECAP: Rates Revisit The Gap After NFP

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by Matthew Graham on June 02 2017, 6:40 PM

"The gap" refers to the closing yields in 10yr Treasuries of 2.15% on 11/10/2016 followed by opening yields of 2.17% the following business day. Granted, that was over a 3-day weekend, but such gaps are nonetheless rare events. Rates revisited...
MBS Day Ahead: All About NFP, But a Meaningful Reaction Might be Tough

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by Matthew Graham on June 02 2017, 8:32 AM

Today's only significant data point will be NFP, which is the most significant piece of scheduled economic data every month! When the economy is in a state of change, NFP becomes an utterly dominant force in guiding big-picture trading themes. For...
MBS RECAP: All Things Considered, Better Than it Might Have Been

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by Matthew Graham on June 01 2017, 4:48 PM

Bond markets lost ground today, but less than you might expect given several of the typical inputs. In terms of economic data, this morning's ADP Employment Report made a fairly strong case for weakness in bonds , coming in at 253k vs a median forecast...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Teetering Between Trends

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by Matthew Graham on June 01 2017, 8:45 AM

Bond markets had been in a clearly-delineated positive trend from mid-March through mid-April followed by a clearly-delineated negative trend though mid-May. After breaking out of that uptrend--something that was only confirmed on May 17th,--bonds have...
MBS RECAP: Unchanged Again; Modest Intraday Volatility

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by Matthew Graham on May 31 2017, 5:27 PM

If we simply consider the close-of-the-day trading levels in bond markets, today was "unchanged." The intraday activity tells only a slightly more detailed story. Treasuries were weaker in the overnight session and never showed much of a desire...
MBS Day Ahead: Hoping to Build on Recent Strength With Uncertain Month-End Boost

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by Matthew Graham on May 31 2017, 9:05 AM

In one of yesterday's updates ( THIS ONE , to be specific), we discussed the role that month-end bond buying was likely playing behind the scenes. Long story short, when we see bond market strength at the end of the month that doesn't line up...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Taking Another Run at 2017's Best Levels?

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by Matthew Graham on May 30 2017, 4:46 PM

Unfortunately, we won't really know until after this week is over, but if today is any indication, bond markets look like they're willing to consider another run at the best levels of 2017 . 10yr yields made it as low as 2.21% today, a mere 4bps...
MBS Week Ahead: Shorter Week Brings Higher Stakes for Recent Market Patterns

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by Matthew Graham on May 30 2017, 8:50 AM

Although there are only four trading days in the week ahead, they bring a far more venerable lineup of economic data compared to last week. This coincides with technical developments in bond charts that are " interesting ," to say the least...
MBS RECAP: Next Week Should be More Interesting

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by Matthew Graham on May 26 2017, 3:09 PM

Today was a non-starter, despite the presence of economic data that certainly had the street cred to move markets (if markets were inclined to move). GDP cam in stronger than expected at +1.2 vs +0.9 forecast, as did Durable Goods (-0.7 vs -1.2 forecast...
MBS Day Ahead: Data Casts Vote on Recent Trend Shift

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by Matthew Graham on May 26 2017, 8:28 AM

Up until yesterday, the past week and a half of trading ran the risk of taking the shape of an uptrend leading back from the lows that followed last week's political drama. Things have been surprisingly quiet on the headline front when it comes to...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Begin Heading For The Exits, Hoping to Avoid Drama

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by Matthew Graham on May 25 2017, 4:54 PM

After seeing today's trading--especially when we consider it in the context of recent technical levels and yesterday's bounce around 2.25% in 10yr yields--it seems increasingly clear that bonds are doing that thing they sometimes do as the weekend...
MBS Day Ahead: Auction Cycle Ends; Bonds Still Have a Shot

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by Matthew Graham on May 25 2017, 9:14 AM

Tuesday of this week was a bit alarming for bond markets as it introduced the possibility that yields were opting for upward momentum after bottoming out amid last week's political drama. If we'd seen additional weakness yesterday, the case might...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Bounce Back After Fed/Auction Combo

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by Matthew Graham on May 24 2017, 4:45 PM

Bonds began the day in inconsequentially stronger territory and soon moved to the worst levels in a week leading up to the 5yr Treasury auction. The auction's stats were much stronger compared to recent averages. This would normally bode well for...
MBS Day Ahead: Apex of Bond Supply and Fed Minutes

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by Matthew Graham on May 24 2017, 9:16 AM

Today's main event from a "street cred" standpoint will be the 2pm release of the Minutes from the last Fed meeting . This is a detailed account of the discussion that produced the Fed Announcement at the beginning of May (which contained...

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You've heard of "innocent until proven guilty." This week of trading in bond markets has been "flat and boring until proven volatile...
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Prepayment Rate and Refinanceable Population Have Both...

Prepayments, apparently spurred by the recent retreat in interest rates, soared in May. Black Knight Financial Services, in its "first look" at the month...
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Purchase Loans, Closing Rates Improved in May

Originations are increasingly tilted toward home purchase mortgages per the latest Origination Insight Report from Ellie Mae. The May data show the share...
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With the trading activity seen in the wake of last Wednesday's high-volume/high-movement day, it's clear that bond markets have been in a holding...
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MBS RECAP: Summertime Sideways

With the taper tantrum in 2013 and Brexit in 2016, two of our most recent examples of summertime bond trading have been pulled very far from historical...
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Mortgage Rates are Barely Budging (And That's Great...

Mortgage rates have been locked in an exceptionally narrow range for most of the month of June, but especially over the past 5 days. Given that mortgage...
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Existing Sales Rise, Prices Peak, Time-to-Sell at New...

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Here we are again with oil falling into new lows for the year and suddenly, it's the inspiration for everything according to most mainstream financial...
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Refis Take Another Step Toward 50% of All Mortgage...

The volume of applications for refinancing expanded for the third consecutive time during the week ended June 16. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA...
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Erase Yesterday's Weakness Without...

Today had no significant news or events on the calendar, thus leaving traders to watch other traders for cues. To some extent, several Fed speakers got...
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Rates Fall Slightly to Remain Near 8-Month Lows

Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower today, with underlying bond markets essentially erasing the damage seen yesterday. This was neither here nor...
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Rise in Purchase Mortgages Boosts Credit Risk

New home purchase mortgages became a little riskier in the first quarter of 2017 per CoreLogic. The company said its Housing Credit Index (HCI), which...
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MBA Objects to FHFA Non-Bank Servicer Proposal

Mortgage Bankers Association President and CEO David H. Stevens, has released a statement objecting to one of the three recommendations made this week...
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Hedging Economic Bets

Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Team hedged a few bets in its June economic summary. It laid out some wild cards while predicting that the...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.98%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.26%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.25%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 107-18 (0-00)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-16 (0-00)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 110-28 (-0-11)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 4.36%
|
Refinance Index 10.47%
|
Purchase Index -0.82%

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