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MBS Week Ahead: 2 Ways to Look at Current Trends

MBS RECAP: Bonds Ease Into Weekend in Solid Shape

MBS Day Ahead: Here's How 'Priced-In' Rate Cuts Are

MBS RECAP: Friendly Fed Wins Out Over Econ Data Bounce

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Consider New Resistance as Week Winds Down...

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Document, Non-QM, MI Products; Vendor News; Rates Steady

Mortgage Rates Fight to Remain at Week's Best Levels

CoreLogic Estimates the Loan Volume Enabled by GSE Patch

Credit, Broker, Accounting Products; Events and Training; Cap...

Mortgage Rates Lowest This Week Despite Stronger Economic Data

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Here's How Many Loans the GSE Loophole Saved; Here's How 'Priced-In' Rate Cuts Are

Published: 7/19/2019

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MBS Day Ahead: G20 Headlines Starting to Flow

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by Matthew Graham on June 27 2019, 8:43 AM

In the day just past, bond markets weakened at a reasonably quick pace. The initial motivation was a headline regarding the prospects of a US/China trade deal in the overnight session. Even though it was later corrected to be much less promising, much...
MBS RECAP: The Sun Also Goes Behind a Cloud

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by Matthew Graham on June 26 2019, 5:22 PM

Things have been bright and sunny for the bond market without any troubling exceptions since mid-April. During that time we've only seen 10yr yields rise more than 6bps (close-to-close) 3 times. Today was one of them. We could say something like "the...
MBS Day Ahead: Treasury Weakness is a Chance for MBS to Catch Up

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by Matthew Graham on June 26 2019, 9:59 AM

In the day just past, bonds extended the gains seen on Monday with 10yr yields hitting 1.98% before encountering resistance. The gains are most readily attributed to an imbalance of short positions (traders betting on rates moving higher) and a smattering...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Shake Off Fed-Induced Volatility, But MBS Can't Keep Up

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by Matthew Graham on June 25 2019, 5:38 PM

Bonds were roughly unchanged overnight but soon began to improve at the CME and NYSE opening bells. Weak economic data at 10am didn't hurt the rally, but it didn't help as much as more important data would have. In the afternoon hours, speeches...
MBS Day Ahead: Downtrend or Consolidation?

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by Matthew Graham on June 25 2019, 9:25 AM

In the day just past, bonds returned from the weekend with an unexpected fervor--at least in terms of outright improvement in yields. Looking beneath the gains, we saw limited volume and no fundamental justification for the move. Rather, it was driven...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Live to Die Another Day

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by Matthew Graham on June 24 2019, 4:59 PM

Friday was tense for the bond market, with selling pressure that was just big enough to cause concern about a bigger correction, and buying support that was consistent enough to suggest we still had a chance. Today's trading quickly proved it was...
MBS Day Ahead: Guarding Against a Technical Bounce Before Decision Time

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by Matthew Graham on June 24 2019, 9:19 AM

In the week just past, bonds were preoccupied with central bank communications. Wednesday's Fed announcement was going to be the only game in town, but Draghi's speech at the SINTRA conference (which promised rate cuts and additional easing) set...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Reject Post-Fed Rally

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by Matthew Graham on June 21 2019, 6:46 PM

The bond market took an entire day to reiterate what it told us yesterday afternoon. Simply put: it's not interested in rallying much more than it already had before Wednesday's Fed announcement. Underlying data and events have been a nonissue...
MBS Day Ahead: Start Preparing For Bigger Moves Ahead

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by Matthew Graham on June 21 2019, 10:16 AM

In the day just past, bonds initially extended the post-Fed gains with 10yr yields briefly hitting 1.973% before bouncing to end unchanged on the day. The selling was almost exclusively motivated by technicals and tradeflows with the average bond trader...
MBS RECAP: 10yr Breaks Below 2% Intraday, But Can't Hold The Gains

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by Matthew Graham on June 20 2019, 6:41 PM

A break below a big psychological technical level in bond yields can be a great thing to behold, but it can also be a signal that it's time for bonds to bounce. Bonds have now gone 7 weeks (barring catastrophe tomorrow) without losing ground. The...
MBS Day Ahead: Strong Trend Intact After Fed Day

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by Matthew Graham on June 20 2019, 8:58 AM

In the day just past, bonds were primarily concerned with reacting to the Fed announcement, press conference, and updated economic projections. Even though the Fed's median rate forecast for the end of 2019 remained unchanged, the average dropped...
MBS RECAP: Fed Threads The Needle as it Preps Markets For Policy Shift

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by Matthew Graham on June 19 2019, 6:35 PM

As expected, today was all about the Fed-related events. Yields moved exactly as far we thought they might based on the Day Ahead , AND in a friendly direction! But if I had to guess where yields would end up based on the contents of the Fed communications...
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on June 19 2019, 2:02 PM

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in MarchMay indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity roseis rising at a solidmoderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and...
MBS Day Ahead: 6 Years Later, Today's Fed Day Should Be a Bit Different

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by Matthew Graham on June 19 2019, 9:35 AM

In the day just past, bonds surged to the best levels since 2017, with 10yr yields coming within 0.002% of the lowest yields since Nov 2016. The key market mover was a speech from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi in which he essentially promised...
MBS RECAP: Not The Central Bank We Were Looking For (But We'll Take It!)

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by Matthew Graham on June 18 2019, 5:34 PM

This week's big to-do had been and continues to be tomorrow's Fed announcement, press conference, and updated forecasts. The Fed's European counterpart threw a bit of a curve ball today as Mario Draghi unleashed a barrage of bond-friendly...

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Consider New Resistance as Week...

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There was a huge decline in foreign investment in U.S. real estate during the 12 months ending with the first quarter of 2019. The National Association...
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What began as a rather unassuming summertime Wednesday quickly turned in to one of the biggest rally days in weeks for bonds. 10yr yields moved more than...
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In the day just passed, a strong Retail Sales report kept the pressure on bond markets to remain in the negative trend that prevailed last week. Yields...
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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.83%
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15 Yr FRM 3.50%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.88%

MBS Prices:

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -0.12%
|
Refinance Index -1.23%
|
Purchase Index 1.13%

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