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MBS RECAP: Bonds Manage to Close 'Unchanged' Despite...

MBS Day Ahead: Most Traders Thinking "Don't Rock The...

MBS RECAP: Introducing The "Snow Cohn"

MBS Day Ahead: Trader Ghost Town Greases Skids For Volatility...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Rallied on Trump Tweet Before it Ever Came Out

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Freddie Mac Puts Price on All-Cash Transactions

Appraisal News; Lock Process Changes; HARP, CRT

Trump Administration Drama Pushing Rates Even Lower

Do’s and Don’t’s For Divorce Attorneys (and Their Clients Owning...

CoreLogic - Don't Overlook Rates in Affordability Discussions

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MBS RECAP: Post-GDP Rally Keeps Same Range Intact

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by Matthew Graham on July 28 2017, 6:30 PM

Overnight weakness almost ruined it, but 10yr yields just barely held inside the necessary levels to claim their third straight "inside day." In other words, the entire trading range of the past 3 days has fallen inside Tuesday's trading...
MBS Day Ahead: Revisiting "Month-End Bond Buying," Plus a Look at The Current Trend

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by Matthew Graham on July 28 2017, 10:05 AM

We often talk about the month-end trading environment as relatively more supportive for bond markets--all other things being equal. Reason for this are explained in THIS PRIMER , but here's the gist. Let's say you're a money manager who holds...
MBS RECAP: 2nd Straight Day Inside Tuesday's Range

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by Matthew Graham on July 27 2017, 4:41 PM

This week continues to be all about Tuesday for bond markets. That was the day with the rather violent, inexplicable sell-off that took yields from 2.25 to 2.34 approximately. Even with econ data, a Treasury auction and the Fed announcement yesterday...
MBS Day Ahead: Let's Try This Again: It's a Tradeflow-Driven Market

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by Matthew Graham on July 27 2017, 9:40 AM

What is a tradeflow? We have a primer that attempts to answer that question on MBS Live ( this one ), but even after reading that multiple times, you wouldn't be alone in continuing to view the topic as esoteric, confusing, and perhaps a bit frustrating...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Battle Back After Fed Foregoes Surprises

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by Matthew Graham on July 26 2017, 6:44 PM

Today's focus was understandably on the Fed Announcement, and indeed, most of the movement followed it. But interestingly enough, the biggest volume spikes occurred at other times, and that helps explain the day's paradoxical movement. So what's...
Differences Between Current and Previous FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on July 26 2017, 2:02 PM

(Additions underlined, deletions struck through) Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this...
MBS Day Ahead: Why Today Could Matter: A Lesson From an Old Fed Announcement

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by Matthew Graham on July 26 2017, 9:43 AM

Remember 2015? The Fed spent the whole year talking about hiking rates for the first after spending years at 0% and ultimately didn't get around to it until December. But perhaps the most interesting phrase in any of the year's Fed announcements...
MBS RECAP: For Bonds, Worst Day Since Late June ECB Scare

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by Matthew Graham on July 25 2017, 4:24 PM

Bonds sold off aggressively today, for a combination of reasons that are tremendously unsatisfying in a traditional market-watching sense. For example, it would be nice if we could point to something tidy and logical like all-time high stock prices, or...
MBS Day Ahead: Recent Rally Under Threat Ahead of Fed

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by Matthew Graham on July 25 2017, 9:21 AM

After enjoying a nice rally since July 10th, bond markets are taking the 2 days leading up to tomorrow's Fed announcement to book some profits and get back to neutral territory. Unfortunately, getting back to neutral means "selling bonds"...
MBS RECAP: Slowest Day of The Year for Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on July 24 2017, 5:18 PM

How's that for an exciting headline? At least it's an " extreme ," technically--just not the sort of extreme that would pique our interest (but still better than the extremes that would peak our interest rates)! Seriously though, trading...
MBS Week Ahead: Fed Announcements are Major Events, but Probably Not This Week's

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by Matthew Graham on July 24 2017, 10:03 AM

In March 2011, the Fed announced it would change things up with respect to its policy announcements. Although there would still be 8 of them each year, 4 of those would now include "economic projections" from FOMC members (forecasts and the...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Extend Gains in Super Quiet Conditions

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by Matthew Graham on July 21 2017, 6:09 PM

As expected, today could be better characterized as a highly-regulated narcotic sleep aid than an interesting trading day for bond markets. The dreams were sweet, at least, with 10yr yields drifting down to their best levels of the month--just under 2bps...
MBS Day Ahead: Low Volume and Light Liquidity Expected. Here's What That Means

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by Matthew Graham on July 21 2017, 9:29 AM

One of the hallmarks of classic (read: old school) technical analysis is the role of volume in confirming market movements. For instance, if 10yr yields break through a key technical level, the next question many traders will ask is whether or not it...
MBS RECAP: Markets Had ECB Almost Perfectly Pegged

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by Matthew Graham on July 20 2017, 7:06 PM

Talk about your anticlimactic conclusions! It's not that the European Central Bank (ECB) was likely to make any meaningful changes in its policy stance today, but it nonetheless served as an important opportunity to confirm or deny the notion that...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Hoping Draghi Keeps Things Green

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by Matthew Graham on July 20 2017, 8:33 AM

Mario Draghi is the President of the European Central Bank (ECB). That's the EU's version of the Fed. Like the Fed in the past, the ECB is still adding new bond purchases to its balance sheet (the Fed tapered those new purchases beginning in Dec...

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There is still life left in refinancing. While at nowhere near the levels of a few years ago, Ellie Mae's Origination Insight Report for July reported...
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Rallied on Trump Tweet Before it Ever...

Today looked like it would be all about waiting for the Fed Minutes to see if there were any surprises. That plan began in fairly good shape, with only...
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Mortgage Rates Back to 2017 Lows on Trump Tweet

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A decline in applications for home purchases nearly overwhelmed the gain made by refinancing activity during the week ended August 11. The Mortgage Bankers...
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Today was mostly about North Korean de-escalation, and somewhat about stronger economic data. If you haven't heard 43 times already, North Korea graciously...
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Rates Rising as North Korea Talks Baseball

Mortgage rates continued higher today as markets reacted to news that North Korea would tactically abstain from launching nuclear weapons at Guam because...
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Big Landlord Merger Sounds Scary but Probably Isn't

One of the many shifts endured by the housing industry during the Great Recession was the entry of institutional investors into the single-family housing...
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Nice Rebound in Builder Confidence - NAHB

Builder confidence made a strong comeback this month , surprising analysts and belying some of the gloom expressed by the National Association of Home...
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MBS Day Ahead: The Blessing and Curse of The Geopolitical...

Geopolitical risk is one of the most intuitive market movers for bonds. Threats of nuclear attacks from North Korea (as well as the rhetorical response...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.94%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.22%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.22%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 107-14 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-06 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 110-19 (0-02)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -7.42%
|
Refinance Index -12.98%
|
Purchase Index -2.53%

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