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MBS Day Ahead: Fed Announcement: March Madness Edition

MBS RECAP: Bonds Officially Held January's Range Ahead of...

MBS Day Ahead: Looks Like We Made It

MBS RECAP: After Green Binge, Bonds Take "Sick" Day

MBS Week Ahead: Both Sides of Market Getting Excited For The...

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Once Considered Inferior, Automated Appraisals Are Helping Stem...

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MBS Day Ahead: If They Were Smart, Congress Should Ask Powell This Question

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by Matthew Graham on February 27 2019, 9:52 AM

Today brings a 2nd day of congressional testimony with Fed Chair Powell, this time before the House Financial Services Committee. The economic IQ varies widely among those committee members. While we'll no doubt hear some hilariously bad or irrelevant...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Rally Back to Range Lows With or Without Powell

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by Matthew Graham on February 26 2019, 5:23 PM

Despite a fair amount of anticipation, today's Powell testimony proved to be a non-event for the bond market. Instead, things like the weak Housing Starts data and strong Consumer Confidence got far more attention (as long as we're talking about...
MBS Day Ahead: Jerome Powell Testimony Could Set Stage For Next Big Move

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by Matthew Graham on February 26 2019, 9:59 AM

The Fed is undoubtedly a major factor in market movement--especially when it comes to rates. At first glance, the key consideration is their collective stance on future rate hikes. But given the recent comments from multiple Fed speakers, we're increasingly...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Hold Ground Nicely Despite Threats

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by Matthew Graham on February 25 2019, 4:40 PM

If bonds happened to move higher in yield by more than they did today, we'd be talking about how the announcement of a US/China tariff extension put upward pressure on rates. As it stands, we can still witness just a bit of that upward pressure, but...
MBS Day Ahead: Tariff Extension is Old News as Bonds Wait For Powell and Data

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by Matthew Graham on February 25 2019, 9:10 AM

The "big" news over the weekend was the announcement of an extension on US/China tariffs that were set to go into effect on March 1st. While an eventual trade deal would still be a big development for both sides of the market, the extension...
MBS RECAP: Sudden Glut of Fed Bond-Buying Comments

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by Matthew Graham on February 22 2019, 7:23 PM

As recently as January 10th, Jerome Powell unequivocally stated that the Fed's balance sheet wind-down was on auto pilot. In other words, they weren't going to be jumping back into buying bonds with balance sheet reinvestments any time soon. Now...
MBS Day Ahead: Fed Hard at Work Dialing in Porridge Temp

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by Matthew Graham on February 22 2019, 9:56 AM

If you're not familiar with these terms, you'll need the following definitions for today's commentary: hawkish/dovish . The Fed is a key ingredient in the market movement outlook going forward. This isn't to say that they will decide which...
MBS RECAP: Delayed Reaction to Fed Hurts Stocks and Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on February 21 2019, 4:48 PM

Although today brought the week's most anticipated line-up of economic data as well as overnight headlines on US/China trade agreements, the biggest market mover was yesterday's Fed Minutes. At the time, I expressed confusion as to why financial...
MBS Day Ahead: How The Range Expands

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by Matthew Graham on February 21 2019, 8:29 AM

If you're just joining us, we've been talking quite a bit in recent weeks about a consolidation range/trend in the bond market. This refers to a series of higher lows and lower highs resulting in a narrowing trading range--one that eventually...
MBS RECAP: Despite Interesting Tidbits From Fed, Bonds Barely Budge

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by Matthew Graham on February 20 2019, 5:04 PM

One of the most interesting parts of today's Fed Minutes release was their characterization of the market's surprise at December announcement. At best, the Fed was seen as being a shade too optimistic about the economy and the ability to remain...
MBS Day Ahead: Closer Look at Precedents For The Next Big Move

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by Matthew Graham on February 20 2019, 9:18 AM

Yesterday, I mentioned that it was rare to see short-term momentum technicals consolidate in the center of their "overbought vs oversold" range. This refers to a fast stochastic oscillator--one of many ways that traders apply math the a time...
MBS RECAP: The Range May Be Breaking...

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by Matthew Graham on February 19 2019, 5:17 PM

The range may be breaking! Well, one of the ranges we've been tracking may be breaking, as long as tomorrow sees bond markets hold the gains they saw today. Unfortunately, if that happens, it won't really mean that much--at least not yet. The...
MBS Day Ahead: Trading Range on Borrowed Time

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by Matthew Graham on February 19 2019, 9:12 AM

For all of the potential market movers that anyone can discuss so far in 2019, we really haven't seen any concerted effort to take yields higher or lower from key technical levels. The higher of those levels was implied by late 2018 trading and the...
MBS RECAP: Deceptively Relevant Econ Data But Range Prevails

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by Matthew Graham on February 15 2019, 3:43 PM

Since Retail Sales rocked markets yesterday, perhaps bonds would be interested in responding to economic data again today? This question seemed to have been answered when bonds apparently jumped following this morning's 8:30am economic data. The only...
MBS Day Ahead: Range Trade Likely to Dominate Heading Into Holiday Weekend

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by Matthew Graham on February 15 2019, 9:53 AM

Rates were at long term highs in early November 2019. Several global economic risks were beginning to swirl at the same time. These included a slowdown in German GDP, the weakest Chinese retail sales in 15 years, Italian budget drama, and a Federal Reserve...

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MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Officially Held January's Range...

Bonds began the day in weaker territory following overnight headlines suggesting European leaders would be going up to bat for a compromise Brexit deal...
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Rates Unchanged for 4th Straight Day. That Should Change...

Mortgage rates were flat for the 4th day in a row today in a sign that investors have largely taken their seats for tomorrow's big show. The Fed will release...
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Once Considered Inferior, Automated Appraisals Are...

Although lacking in popularity, it appears that automated appraisals have obtained their intended results. Urban Institute (UI) researchers Laurie Goodman...
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MBS Day Ahead: Looks Like We Made It

Rates staged an impressive rally in November and December before bottoming out on the first trading day of 2019. The bounce was fairly abrupt at the time...
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Sales, Marketing Products; Lender Training; MBS Platform...

At roughly $8,500 per loan and continuing to defy gravity, scholars disagree on whether vendors lower the cost of originating a residential loan. But then...
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MBS RECAP: After Green Binge, Bonds Take "Sick"...

For the bond market St Paddy's day was a 2 week celebration of "green" (as in the color of price gains or falling yields on trading terminals...
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Mortgage Rates Hold 14-Month Lows

Mortgage rates didn't budge today--a logical result with no signs of life in underlying bond markets. In the current case, this is just fine with us considering...
MND NewsWire

Builder Confidence Holds Steady After Recovering From...

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) held steady in March , after partially recovering from substantial...
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MBS Week Ahead: Both Sides of Market Getting Excited...

This week's economic calendar is exceptionally light, with no true top-tier reports. Even the 2nd-tier data is limited with Philly Fed on Thursday...
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LO Jobs; Warehouse Products; 1099 Comp - Brokers and...

I hope that I never get to the point of writing things down on my “to do” list even after I’ve done them, just so I can cross them off...
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Squeezed to Best Levels in Months...

Uncertainty has reigned supreme for much of 2019 as traders weigh shifting economic data, potential data inconsistencies (due the shutdown), trade policy...
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Rates Stay Low; Bigger Risks/Rewards Next Week

Mortgage rates remained at recent lows today, as underlying bond markets strengthened. For US Treasuries, this brought rates to new multi-month lows. Mortgage...
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Aging Americans, Aging Housing Stock Driving Remodel...

Nearly 80 percent of America's housing stock is at least 20 years old and twice that share of homes were built 50 or more years ago. With new construction...
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MBS Day Ahead: Not Another Ides of March Headline

People who write articles every day love holidays and other dates that offer some reprieve from the need to be creative when it comes to writing headlines...
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Broker Products; UK says no to "no deal";...

I didn’t know that America has a “most hated” type of home loan until Bloomberg “informed” me that reverse mortgages are…...
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MBA has a More Upbeat View on New Home Sales

Even though the January Census Bureau report on new home sales published on Thursday wasn't all that encouraging for the spring market, the Mortgage Bankers...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Small Scale Volatility Lost in Big Picture...

In the bigger picture, we'll look back at today's intraday trading range and it will be completely meaningless--among the narrower days of 1st...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Lowest in More Than a Year

Mortgage rates held steady today, despite moderate weakness in underlying bond markets. This occurred for two reasons. First, yesterday saw bond markets...
MND NewsWire

Surge of New Home Sales in West Salvage January Numbers

It seems like only yesterday that we were looking at the December new home sale numbers - well actually it was 6 days ago. Now we have the January sales...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: How Much Do We Really Care About Brexit...

Top line, bottom line: Brexit is a big deal. Without the Brexit referendum in mid-2016, US bond yields never would have revisited all-time lows. It's...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.40%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.98%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.20%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 103-28 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 105-08 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 106-10 (0-01)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.47%
|
Refinance Index -2.02%
|
Purchase Index -2.63%

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