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MBS RECAP: After Fed, Bonds Tune Out Into Weekend

MBS Day Ahead: No Data, and Maybe Even No Drama

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Not Out of Woods Yet

MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Cheer Fed Announcement, Sorta...

Differences Between Current and Previous FOMC Statements

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Stearns Picks up KB Home JV; Ocwen News; Impact of Prepayments...

Mortgage Rates Lower as Market Digests Fed

Mortgage Prepayments at 3-Year High Thanks to Brexit

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Vendor News; Flood Insurance and Disaster Updates - What About...

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Mortgage Rates Lowest in Weeks; Refi Proportion and Prepayments Surge

Published: 9/23/2016

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Set Up For Maximum Anxiety Heading Into NFP

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by Matthew Graham on September 01 2016, 4:16 PM

Bonds began the day in weaker territory and were approaching the highest yields of the past 2 months by mid-morning. Part of the negativity could have been driven by the higher Labor Cost data (+4.3 vs +2.1 forecast) which can speak to higher worker compensation...
MBS Day Ahead: ISM is The Headliner, at Least Until Tomorrow's NFP

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by Matthew Graham on September 01 2016, 8:53 AM

NFP weeks are always a bit more robust in terms of other top shelf economic data. This typically includes one or both of the ISM reports, Chicago PMI, and ADP Employment. The last of those left for this week--ISM Manufacturing--is due out at 10am today...
MBS RECAP: Only Volatile if You Were Standing Too Close

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by Matthew Graham on August 31 2016, 5:43 PM

Bonds responded generally favorably to the available economic data, which included on-target ADP jobs numbers (177 vs 175k forecast) and weaker Chicago PMI (51.5 vs 54.0 forecast). That only helped us in the morning, however. European bond market weakness...
MBS Day Ahead: Month-End Bond Buying Could Be A Trap

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by Matthew Graham on August 31 2016, 9:35 AM

Who remembers asymptotes from high school? Those are the curved lines that gradually approach a certain level--getting closer and closer, but never reaching it. Sometimes in bond markets, instead of the normal triangular consolidations (i.e. linear trends...
MBS RECAP: Uneventful Day For Bonds Confirms Range-Reentry

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by Matthew Graham on August 30 2016, 4:24 PM

Today was very different than the past two days. Friday was one of the biggest days of selling seen during the July/August time frame and yesterday was one of the larger rallies (though neither were especially large in broader contexts). Today covered...
MBS Day Ahead: So What's The "Range-Breaker" Now?

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by Matthew Graham on August 30 2016, 9:12 AM

With bond markets having clearly consolidated heading into last week's Jackson Hole speeches and with Jackson hole ultimately NOT resulting in a a confirmed break of the consolidative range (see the chart), the next question is logical: If it wasn't...
MBS RECAP: Whew!

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by Matthew Graham on August 29 2016, 4:54 PM

It's one thing to HOPE that any particular selling spree in bond markets is merely the product of a few temporary events that can be easily explained away. It's another thing to actually bank on it. I don't ever flat-out recommend that you...
MBS Week Ahead: Bonds Fight To Remain in Range After Jackson Hole

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by Matthew Graham on August 29 2016, 9:33 AM

Friday was a volatile day for markets as investors were anxiously awaiting comments from Fed Chair Yellen that might speak to the likelihood of a Fed rate hike (or 2?) by the end of 2016. Yellen, herself, didn't provide much by way of concrete guidance...
MBS RECAP: Yellen Passes Without a Trace. What Now?!

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by Matthew Graham on August 26 2016, 3:01 PM

All eyes were on Yellen's 10am speech from Jackson Hole, then all eyes were closed as traders fell asleep from boredom. Yellen said nothing we didn't already know, although one headline (about the case for a rate hike being stronger) sent rates...
MBS Day Ahead: Today Does Absolutely Nothing For Bigger Picture

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by Matthew Graham on August 26 2016, 4:31 AM

All too many lookers on--myself included--have made far too much of today's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Yellen (11am ET, we're led to believe). I'm here to make amends for that. It's not that Yellen's speech can't or won't...
MBS RECAP: Markets Offer No Sign of Pre-Yellen Tilt

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by Matthew Graham on August 25 2016, 4:14 PM

As we discussed this morning, sometimes markets will take a "lead-off" ahead of a big potential market mover if there's an underlying predisposition that traders have been 'hiding' (for lack of a better term). This has resulted in...
MBS Day Ahead: Any Underlying Imbalances Will Surface Today

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by Matthew Graham on August 25 2016, 8:34 AM

Most likely, today will just be another day in the range-bound grind for bond markets leading up to tomorrow's Jackson Hole speech from Yellen. Although this particular instance of sideways movement is much more extreme than most past examples, it...
MBS RECAP: Data and Auction Pass Without Trace. Bring on Yellen

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by Matthew Graham on August 24 2016, 5:06 PM

Whether or not Yellen actually says something that moves markets on Friday is unimportant. Maybe she will. Probably she won't. Either way , we just need her speech to come and go so bond markets can move on with their lives. And here's another...
MBS Day Ahead: Why The First Reaction to Yellen Might Not Be Our "Final Answer"

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by Matthew Graham on August 24 2016, 9:27 AM

Welcome to another episode of Extreme Boredom: Bond Market Edition. In today's episode, bonds are pressing even further into record territory, only it's not any sort of record in terms of prices or yields. Rather, today is adding to a record-breaking...
MBS RECAP: Have You Heard The One About "The Range?"

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by Matthew Graham on August 23 2016, 4:02 PM

We might have expected a bigger movement in the wake of the colossal improvement in New Home Sales (654k vs 582k previously, 580k forecast), but bonds barely budged. In fact, the first move following the data was into STRONGER territory for bonds. Treasuries...

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For the 5th day in a row, the total trading range in Treasuries and MBS fell inside the single day range set last Tuesday. Market-watchers consider even...
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Mortgage Rates were slightly higher in most cases today, although there were a few lenders in better shape. This runs counter to movement seen in underlying...
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Fannie Sees Fed Waiting, Housing Cooling

Fannie Mae says that early bets on third quarter economic growth are around 3.0 percent which has the Federal Reserve talking again about raising the fed...
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The approach to this week's big-ticket events has been very straightforward so far. This has been aided, no doubt, by the absence of other significant...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.42%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.78%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.58%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 109-15 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 111-05 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 112-20 (-0-01)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0.43%
|
Refinance Index 0.51%
|
Purchase Index 0.38%

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