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MBS RECAP: Moderate Selling Followed by Heavy Selling and Tons...

MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Weaker After Economic Data Prompting...

MBS Day Ahead: Biggest Economic Data of the Week; Bond Markets...

MBS RECAP: Sharply Sideways Day for Bond Markets

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Purchases Continue Taking Market Share; FICOs Trending Lower; Rates Sharply Higher; Foreclosures with Positive Equity

Published: 4/17/2014

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MBS MID-DAY: Tentative Improvements After Data and ECB

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by Matthew Graham on April 03 2014, 11:56 AM

There were two options for bond markets heading into today's session. Recent weakness could have been extended, resulting in a "lead-off" taking yields up and out of the multi-month sideways range. We were right on the edge of such a phenomenon...
MBS Day Ahead: Bond Markets May be Taking Pre-NFP Lead-Off

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by Matthew Graham on April 03 2014, 7:31 AM

As we frequently discuss on NFP weeks, it's not uncommon for bond markets to drift into weaker territory in spite of contrary data or events. This same sort of bracing for impact can also be seen heading into Treasury auction cycles. In short, market...
MBS RECAP: NFP Countdown Continues; Bond Markets Feeling Defensive

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by Matthew Graham on April 02 2014, 4:05 PM

Bond markets sold off absolutely as much as they could have today while still technically staying inside the longer-term "sideways" range leading up to NFP Friday. Moderate amounts of weakness were seen overnight and after the ADP data in the...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets on the Ropes After Decent Economic Data

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by Matthew Graham on April 02 2014, 12:30 PM

To be clear, bond markets are indeed in their weakest recent territory AFTER this morning's economic data, but NOT necessarily BECAUSE of it. While Treasuries and MBS had visible reactions to the ADP data and even to Factory Orders, neither of the...
MBS Day Ahead: Bond Markets Unlikely to be Swayed, but Decisions Loom

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by Matthew Graham on April 02 2014, 7:45 AM

If there's a consistent theme for bond markets so far in 2014, it's been "indecision." I referred to it as a " Serious Monotony Problem " on Monday, but it's been going on much longer. In fact, when we step back and take...
MBS RECAP: Flat Afternoon Following Mid-Day Rally Attempt

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by Matthew Graham on April 01 2014, 4:20 PM

A real snoozer today for bond markets... Yesterday afternoon's late-day strength was washed out by overnight weakness. MBS started the day perfectly in line with yesterday's 12:01pm price levels and held uneventfully sideways for most of the morning...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Bouncing Back After Morning Weakness

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by Matthew Graham on April 01 2014, 12:17 PM

Treasuries were weaker overnight, and in such a way that suggested organic selling pressure. In other words, US bond markets weren't simply weaker because they were following the crowd, but of their own volition (or traders' volition as the case...
MBS Day Ahead: Sideways Grind Continues; Burden of Proof Weighs Heavy on Econ Data

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by Matthew Graham on April 01 2014, 8:00 AM

Bond markets got off to a volatile start yesterday, but ended the day close to unchanged. There's really very little that Treasuries could do at the moment to change the the perception that they're sideways and waiting for the next big move. We...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Inch Back Toward Positive Territory After Volatile Morning

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by Matthew Graham on March 31 2014, 4:01 PM

The 'after-hours' session (3pm-5pm, following the close of Treasury pit trading) is seeing an ongoing trickle of sideways to slightly stronger prices in MBS. The Treasury yield curve is flagrantly favoring the shorter maturities--part of a two...
MBS MID-DAY: Volatility and Moderate Weakness, but Finally Improving After Yellen

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by Matthew Graham on March 31 2014, 11:45 AM

Bond markets began the week on something of a volatile note. Treasuries had weakened slightly in the overnight session and MBS walked in the door about an eighth of a point lower than Friday's latest levels (in terms of Fannie 4.0s). They're currently...
MBS Week Ahead: Serious Monotony Problem for Bond Markets; Time to Move on?

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by Matthew Graham on March 31 2014, 8:00 AM

For most of 2013, the mission was clear for bond markets. It mostly involved rapid selling and significant amounts of pain for any fans of low interest rates. After a brief correction pulling back from multi year highs to begin 2014, bonds have been ridiculously...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Correct Bullish Run, More Neutral for NFP Week

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by Matthew Graham on March 28 2014, 4:53 PM

If you'd like to reduce this week's activity to a very basic concept and seek to explain just about everything we've seen in the past week as a function of that concept, that's probably just fine . It's not a new concept either, but...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Give up Morning Gains as Stocks Rally

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by Matthew Graham on March 28 2014, 11:30 AM

There has been a good amount of correlation between stock prices and bond yields heading into the end of the month/quarter. This is not an uncommon occurrence as money managers rebalance portfolios and adjust holdings based on various indices. This time...
MBS Day Ahead: Can Bonds Make it 7 Days in a Row Without Losing Ground?

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by Matthew Graham on March 28 2014, 8:00 AM

There's some conventional wisdom that suggests asking questions in the title of an article is not a good idea. Pish posh! When it comes to financial markets, every day begins with a question mark. Today is no different, though the importance of the...
MBS RECAP: Another Resilient Day Despite Stronger Data

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by Matthew Graham on March 27 2014, 4:05 PM

While not all the data was stronger this morning, the only stand-out market mover certainly was. Jobless Claims fell to 311k from 320k previously, beating a 325k forecast. Instead of paying much attention to the data, bond markets continued marching calmly...

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