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MBS RECAP: Stronger Selling and Lighter Volume Raise Doubts

MBS Day Ahead: Time For That Mid-October Craziness in Bonds

MBS RECAP: Bonds Scramble Back to Unchanged, Leaving Outlook...

MBS Day Ahead: Quickly Becoming a Battle to Remain in a Friendly...

MBS RECAP: Political Headlines Cause Volatility in a Narrow Range

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Hurricanes Impact on Housing Could Last

Mortgage Applications Regain Footing

Mortgage Rates Rise a Bit More From Recent Lows

Builders' Confidence Returns as Hurricane Worries Wane

Construction Numbers Look Much Better Broken Down by State

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Construction Under The Weather; Single Family Permits on the Mend; Applications Regain Footing; Rates Rise

Published: 10/18/2017

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MBS RECAP: No Drama From Yellen; Bonds Still Holding Ground

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by Matthew Graham on September 26 2017, 4:33 PM

Today was another good day for bond markets despite the fact that Treasury yields moved somewhat higher during the course of trading hours. At least in today's case, bonds didn't require an injection of geopolitical drama in order to maintain...
MBS Day Ahead: A Note on How to Read Bond Market News

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by Matthew Graham on September 26 2017, 9:05 AM

For some of you, this may seem very basic. For others, hopefully it will serve as an eye-opener or even just a useful refresher. I got the inspiration to write this after seeing two different news articles on bonds. They both made the same underlying...
MBS RECAP: 2nd Straight Day With Help From North Korea

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by Matthew Graham on September 25 2017, 5:16 PM

It's tempting to say that bond markets are definitively pushing back against the sharp correction that brought rates higher over the past 2 weeks. In fact, that's likely the case, but we have to ask ourselves just how open-and-shut this case may...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Ponder Reversal as Month-End Approaches

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by Matthew Graham on September 25 2017, 9:03 AM

The current week begins with bonds holding ground for a 3rd day after a fairly sharp selling spree in the preceding 2 weeks. The big question is whether recent resilience marks a true shift away from that selling pressure or if it's merely a break...
MBS RECAP: After More Nuclear Headlines, Bonds Punt

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by Matthew Graham on September 22 2017, 4:52 PM

Who knows how today's trading would have unfolded absent the overnight headlines that North Korea was planning to test an ICBM with a Hydrogen warhead in the Pacific Ocean. This prompted a risk-off move early in the overnight session (stocks and bond...
MBS RECAP: After More Nuclear Headlines, Bonds Punt

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by Matthew Graham on September 22 2017, 4:52 PM

Who knows how today's trading would have unfolded absent the overnight headlines that North Korea was planning to test an ICBM with a Hydrogen warhead in the Pacific Ocean. This prompted a risk-off move early in the overnight session (stocks and bond...
MBS Day Ahead: Despite North Korea Headlines, Same Showdown on Tap

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by Matthew Graham on September 22 2017, 8:59 AM

With a dearth of economic data on the calendar, bond traders were set to take cues from other traders, technical levels, and perhaps a big-ticket headline or two. Today begins with just such headlines . As has been the case for several market moving headlines...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Generally Hold Ground, Complicating The Outlook

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by Matthew Graham on September 21 2017, 4:40 PM

In a sick way, it would have been easier to see additional weakness in bond markets today. At least that would have jived with past precedent of "course corrections" from the Fed resulting in a shift in the prevailing momentum. Arguably, yesterday's...
MBS Day Ahead: Bond Sell-Off's Grinch-Like Heart Growing 2.28 Sizes

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by Matthew Graham on September 21 2017, 9:43 AM

Remember when the Grinch's heart grew 3 sizes? No, I mean, do you really remember watching that movie for the first time and the feeling you had when you saw the Grinch finally on the cusp of doing something redeeming? Fans of low rates might be having...
MBS RECAP: Ugly September Gets Uglier After The Fed

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by Matthew Graham on September 20 2017, 5:28 PM

Today's Fed announcement wasn't appreciably different than most economists, traders, and armchair analysts expected. They confirmed the inception of the balance sheet normalization plan. They referenced temporary impacts from hurricanes. They...
Differences Between Current and Previous FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on September 20 2017, 2:04 PM

(Additions underlined, deletions struck through) Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in JuneJuly indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Ready to Move Either Direction After The Fed

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by Matthew Graham on September 20 2017, 8:33 AM

Much like an actor can get lost in a role and take things a bit too far, bond markets played the part of "a market undergoing a correction" a little too well. As of yesterday afternoon, 8 out of the last 8 business days saw 10yr yields close...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Reaffirm The September Correction

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by Matthew Graham on September 19 2017, 5:33 PM

While MBS managed to remain 1 tick in positive territory today, Treasury yields were higher on the day and the overall mood in bond markets managed to remain downbeat for yet another day. For all intents and purposes, the driving force was simply ongoing...
MBS Day Ahead: Pirate Talk Could Be Our Best Option

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by Matthew Graham on September 19 2017, 8:54 AM

Ahoy ye salty dogs sailing the high seas of the mortgage world. Another year has come and gone without any grand preparations for Talk Like a Pirate Day, so these first two sentences will likely be the extent of the allusion, although a phrase or two...
MBS RECAP: Weaker Start With No Major Scapegoats

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by Matthew Graham on September 18 2017, 4:49 PM

Bonds got off to a weaker start on this Fed week, and there weren't any convenient scapegoats in sight. That said, there were a few caveats. Most notable, it was the 2nd lowest volume day of the year for Treasuries, and that's an environment that...

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MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Time For That Mid-October Craziness...

Ah mid-October... All too often in the 2009-2014 time frame, we'd seen abrupt reversals of trends at this time of month. We haven't really been...
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Mortgage Applications Regain Footing

The volume of mortgage applications increased last week for the first time since early September. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Scramble Back to Unchanged, Leaving...

Treasuries and MBS have spent the past 2 days trading well inside the range set by last Friday's volatility (big rally following CPI data). Unfortunately...
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Mortgage Rates Rise a Bit More From Recent Lows

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Builders' Confidence Returns as Hurricane Worries...

After reacting strongly to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma with a four-point drop in September, the Housing Market Index (HMI) regained its footing in October...
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Construction Numbers Look Much Better Broken Down by...

It has been a rather dismal spring and summer for construction, one in which permitting has declined in three out of the last four months. Going more granular...
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MBS Day Ahead: Quickly Becoming a Battle to Remain...

As we discussed last week, the positive technical signals don't get much clearer than they did after Friday's CPI data (weak inflation helped bonds...
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Wire Fraud, MBI and LEP Products; HMDA Stats; The Fed's...

Does the Fed Chairman make a difference? Yes. Taylor and Powell’s names continue to be mentioned, although Trump is set to interview Janet Yellen...
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MBS RECAP: Political Headlines Cause Volatility in...

If the only things you could observe about today's bond trading were volumes and "buy vs sell," there were a few moments where things got...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Higher

Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. Underlying bond markets suggested a bit more movement, and that will likely...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Can Absorb Some Weakness Without...

It looks like it will be touch and go for bonds as the week begins. If yields or technicals touch certain overhead ceilings, you should go lock your loans...
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Big Bank Earnings and News; M&A Continues

Given the latest tax plan, will the mortgage interest deduction stay, but become worthless? The GOP blueprint would double the standard deduction for individuals...
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Bounce Big After Weak Inflation Report

There was a time--in fact, there was a stretch of several years--when inflation-related reports just didn't matter . I would have been the first to...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Back Into The 3's After Inflation...

Mortgage rates moved lower today. For many lenders, it was the biggest drop in more than a month and it also brings them to the best levels in roughly...
MND NewsWire

Mortgage Guidelines Could be Twice as Loose and it...

The Mortgage Bankers Association's Mortgage Credit Access Index, released earlier this week, showed continued slight easing in the credit markets, especially...
Pipeline Press

Lender and Investment Bank Updates - New Products;...

Per Fed Chair Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve has been working to revise post-crisis financial regulations, making them less onerous and better suited...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: All Rise! The Judge is In

My apologies to baseball fans, both of you. The "judge" in today's case is this morning's CPI (Consumer Price Index) data. Bonds have...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Starting to Gather Momentum Again

Bond markets are matching their best 3-day performance in over a month with today's stronger closing levels. Unlike the previous examples, the current...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Be Careful What You Read About Mortgage Rates Today

Mortgage rate data collection is tricky business . Some sources rely on survey data that can have a limited collection window and a significant lag. Other...
MND NewsWire

MBA Predicts Plunge in New Home Sales; Hurricanes Blamed

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is forecasting that a significant decline in new home sales occurred last month. However, like much of the other...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.96%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.26%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.16%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 107-01 (-0-04)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 108-10 (-0-18)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 110-20 (-0-02)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 3.27%
|
Refinance Index 5.05%
|
Purchase Index 1.43%

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