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MBS RECAP: Despite Strong Data, Bonds Remain Focused on Fed

MBS Day Ahead: Here's The Wind-Up

MBS RECAP: Bonds Biding Time Until Wednesday

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Gearing Up For Unfriendly Fed

MBS RECAP: Might as Well Hit This Weekend With Some Hope

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Sneak Into September Unnoticed

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by Matthew Graham on August 31 2018, 5:36 PM

August began with bond yields moving down from 3%, effectively keeping them in a sideways-to-slightly higher trend that arguably dates back to January. The trend may have taken a break in the spring as yields tested a move over 3.10%, but geopolitical...
MBS Day Ahead: Lowest Volatility Ever, or Close to It

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by Matthew Graham on August 31 2018, 10:28 AM

There are a few different ways to measure volatility in the bond market, but one of the simplest is via the average daily trading range. That particular metric is showing volatility in line with the lowest levels on record. The lower volatility goes and...
MBS RECAP: New Tariff News Helps Bonds Dig Into Range

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by Matthew Graham on August 30 2018, 4:22 PM

While we can't really avoid talking about "the range" recently (roughly 2.80 to 2.90 in terms of 10yr Treasury yields), we can at least talk about it in a slightly more enjoyable way today. As of yesterday afternoon, yields were essentially...
MBS Day Ahead: It Would Take Some Convincing to Break The Range

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by Matthew Graham on August 30 2018, 8:52 AM

Remember the flat, boring range between 2.8 and 2.9? Or perhaps you prefer the slightly stricter version between 2.82 and 2.88? That's the range that dominated our conversation and bond trading beginning in late June. The range went on vacation through...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Remain Rangebound After Morning Weakness

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by Matthew Graham on August 29 2018, 6:08 PM

Today ended up being the most uneventful day of the week in terms of outright volatility. In other words, bonds didn't cover as much ground as they did over the past 2 days. That said, there was still a bit of excitement . After being unchanged in...
MBS Day Ahead: Why GDP is Seldom a Big Market Mover

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by Matthew Graham on August 29 2018, 8:45 AM

GDP is released 3 times over 3 months beginning on the month that follows the quarter in question. In other words, Q2 (April-June) is first reported in July. The first revision is reported today (it's still August, right?). GDP always sounds like...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Confirm Technical Shift But Stop Short of Breakout

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2018, 5:23 PM

Yesterday's bond market weakness introduced some risk of a technical shift back toward higher yields. Specifically, fast and slow stochastics (shorter and longer term momentum gauges) were simultaneously 'overbought' for the first time since...
MBS Day Ahead: Resistance Mounting as Bonds Hold Same Old Range

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2018, 9:54 AM

Late June through late July saw 10yr yields trade in the 'same old range' with lows centered on 2.81 and highs on 2.89. That range was broken at the end of July but has since come back into fashion thanks to emerging market uncertainty, a slight...
MBS RECAP: Trade Progress Helps Stocks, Hurts Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2018, 5:41 PM

It was a straightforward trading day today. Overnight weakness came courtesy of stronger econ data in Germany and the resulting sell-off in European bonds. The rest of the weakness was a product of a " risk-on " move stemming from updates on...
MBS Week Ahead: Last Week of Summer For Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2018, 9:20 AM

Even though quite a few kids are going back to school today, there's still one week of Summer remaining for the bond market. Labor Day (this upcoming weekend) is a major dividing line. It marks the shifting of gears back into a more serious and focused...
MBS RECAP: Stocks and Bonds Cheer Dovish Powell

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by Matthew Graham on August 24 2018, 8:25 PM

If you knew what to look for, today's comments from Fed Chair Powell erred on the side of dovishness--that is, they were rate-friendly. They were also stock-friendly for that matter, which is probably why both stocks and bonds rallied in response...
MBS Day Ahead: A Petition to Rename The Jackson Hole Symposium

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by Matthew Graham on August 24 2018, 9:30 AM

Dear Kansas City Fed, Thank you for hosting another year of the storied Jackson Hole Symposium. I'm not here to vent about the fact that you could easily handle this event in Kansas City instead of in a venue that sort of exemplifies much of what...
MBS RECAP: Calmest Day For Bonds Since Dec 2017

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by Matthew Graham on August 23 2018, 5:30 PM

Not since the eerie holiday-inspired silence of December 22nd 2017 have bonds put in as narrow of a trading day as they did today. 10yr yields didn't even crack a 0.02% range. It really doesn't get much narrower than that. MBS didn't do much...
MBS Day Ahead: Is Today The Day We Break 2.82? Should You Even Care?

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by Matthew Graham on August 23 2018, 9:09 AM

Is today the day we break the "key technical level" at 2.82? Spoiler alert: you shouldn't care and it doesn't matter . I'm sorry if this is disillusioning or confusing. I spend a fair amount of time talking about technicals and various...
MBS RECAP: Modest Gains Amid Risk-Off Headline Response; Fed Didn't Hurt

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by Matthew Graham on August 22 2018, 4:07 PM

Today's gains are primarily a factor of the bond market's response to yesterday's Cohen headlines (plea deal regarding campaign finance violations). Bonds aren't too flustered about the headlines, but a few traders sought safe havens due...

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MBS RECAP: Is It Over?

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Both permits and starts were expected to pick up in August, at least holding on to their slight gains in July. Housing starts did deliver, posting a strong...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.87%
|
15 Yr FRM 4.32%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.40%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 102-29 (-0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 104-26 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 106-13 (-0-11)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.60%
|
Refinance Index -3.69%
|
Purchase Index -1.98%

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