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MBS Day Ahead: Clear Reaction to Presidential Debate, But There's...

MBS RECAP: Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep...

MBS Day Ahead: Presidential Debate Could Offer Hints at Bonds'...

MBS RECAP: Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range?

MBS Week Ahead: Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range?

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MBS RECAP: Range Trading Settling in For Long(er) Haul

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by Matthew Graham on September 18 2020, 5:30 PM

Range Trading Settling in For Long(er) Haul With no significant bond market volatility in response to this week's Fed announcement. The question of "where do we go now" remains. The answer remains as well. Until further notice, it's...
MBS Day Ahead: Running Out of Ways to Say "Sideways"

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by Matthew Graham on September 18 2020, 9:47 AM

Tossed coconut salad... Fresh coconut milk... New England boiled coconut... There were only so many menu choices for Yosemite Sam working with one ingredient. We're in a somewhat similar position over the past month with nothing to observe apart from...
MBS RECAP: Still Waiting on Bonds to Attempt a Range Breakout

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by Matthew Graham on September 17 2020, 4:06 PM

Still Waiting on Bonds to Attempt a Range Breakout Yesterday's Fed announcement managed to deliver the bare minimum of the market's expectations and underdeliver on fairly reasonable hopes. That resulted in a logical protest from both stocks and...
MBS Day Ahead: Markets Debating Next Move After Fed; Update on Mortgage Spreads

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by Matthew Graham on September 17 2020, 9:44 AM

Yesterday's Fed announcement managed to deliver the bare minimum of the market's expectations and underdeliver on fairly reasonable hopes. That resulted in a logical protest from both stocks and bonds. Each had walked their own cautious path leading...
MBS RECAP: What Did The Fed Actually Change?

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by Matthew Graham on September 16 2020, 4:43 PM

What Did The Fed Actually Change? Here are the most notable changes: The vague notion of symmetric 2 percent inflation has been replaced with a specific goal of "moderately above 2 percent so that it averages 2 percent over time." They now refer...
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on September 16 2020, 2:06 PM

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals. The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic...
MBS Day Ahead: The Fed Could Help OR Hurt

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by Matthew Graham on September 16 2020, 10:03 AM

Coronavirus is responsible for many "firsts." Apart from the obvious impact on daily life there are firsts for the economy and monetary policy as well. Since March, all of the significant policy changes from the Fed have been unscheduled and...
MBS RECAP: Locking vs Floating Ahead of Potentially Big Fed Announcement

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by Matthew Graham on September 15 2020, 3:54 PM

Locking vs Floating Ahead of Potentially Big Fed Announcement First thing's first: if you haven't seen the adverse market fee make it back onto rate sheets yet, that makes locking a no-brainer. If you have, then we can move on to considering the...
MBS Day Ahead: Bond Market Reiterating Importance of Tomorrow's Fed Announcement

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by Matthew Graham on September 15 2020, 10:46 AM

In August, we witnessed a rapid acceleration in expectations for the Fed's long-awaited inflation framework shift. Although it seemed rather precipitous at the time, the framework review had been going on for more than a year with the initial round...
MBS RECAP: Small Scale Volatility In The Bigger Picture

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by Matthew Graham on September 14 2020, 4:42 PM

Small Scale Volatility In The Bigger Picture The adverse market fee continues to dominate lock/float consideration for those who haven't seen it return yet. For everyone else, the decision has most to do with Wednesday's Fed announcement which...
MBS Week Ahead: Lots of Data But Focus is On The Fed

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by Matthew Graham on September 14 2020, 9:34 AM

Bonds have been consolidating aggressively for an entire month . 10yr yields have been perfectly contained between 0.63 and 0.73 with one brief occasion following Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech. Actually, the volatility on that day had more...
MBS RECAP: 2 Different Approaches Depending on Adverse Market Fee

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by Matthew Graham on September 11 2020, 5:05 PM

Lock Decisions Still Hinge on Adverse Market Fee Without any significant volatility in the bond market, mortgage rate strategy is still all about the return of the adverse market fee. In cases where it's already back, the outlook is more neutral,...
MBS Day Ahead: Why Were MBS Almost a Quarter of a Point Weaker This Morning?!

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by Matthew Graham on September 11 2020, 9:39 AM

There's nothing quite like the visual (and visceral) impact of opening up MBS Live in the morning only to see a big drop in the blue line. Today is one of those days. For those who haven't gotten around to it yet, let's get it out of the way...
MBS RECAP: Lock Decisions Still Hinge on Adverse Market Fee

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by Matthew Graham on September 10 2020, 4:55 PM

Lock Decisions Still Hinge on Adverse Market Fee The bond market had a decent showing today, ultimately rallying back into positive territory after a weaker start. We could agonize over what amounts to extremely small volatility inside a sideways range...
MBS Day Ahead: Do Bonds Care About The Dollar?

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by Matthew Graham on September 10 2020, 10:28 AM

Central banks are engaging in unprecedented levels of stimulus and transparency. The US is one of the worst offenders, spending at a record pace while facing a drastic revenue shortfall. Budget and trade deficits are ballooning. The Fed's framework...

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Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Still Sideways to Slightly Lower

The average mortgage lender continues to offer top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates in the "high 2% to low 3%" neighborhood. Exactly where any given...
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Perfect Storm For Home Prices?

The growth of home prices nationally continued to accelerate in July according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index...
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MBS Day Ahead: Presidential Debate Could Offer Hints...

The absence of volatility in the bond market cannot be overemphasized at the moment, or during most any moment since mid August. Rather than drift toward...
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Here's a brief video refresher of our tax code if anyone needs it. If eight months ago someone had told you to pick a country where there is a mudslinging...
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MBS RECAP: Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range?

Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range? The end of the week brings the first Friday of the month (of October!) and thus the big jobs report--the economic...
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More New Homes Bought With Non-Conventional Financing...

Non-conventional lending enjoyed a substantial increase in its share of the market for financing new home purchases in 2019. The National Association of...
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MBS Week Ahead: Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range...

The end of the week brings the first Friday of the month (of October!) and thus the big jobs report--the economic data that has ruled all others throughout...
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Thank you to those who wrote commenting about the Yelp study showing that 164,000 businesses across our nation have closed since March . “Bouncing...
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MBS RECAP: Treasuries, MBS Back on Same Page After...

Treasuries, MBS Back on Same Page After 2 Weeks On Different Paths MBS prices were generally losing ground, albeit at a modest pace, over the past two...
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Stellar Housing Data; Rates Inching Lower

Mortgage Rate Update Considering this week's generally positive drift in rates, we shouldn't expect lenders to get less busy any time soon. In recent weeks...
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Forbearances Ending at a Faster Pace

Black Knight said its weekly forbearance survey found the number of mortgages in active forbearance decreasing at an accelerated rate. Those mortgages...
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MBS Day Ahead: Treasuries, MBS Back on Same Page After...

Bear with me while I'm forced to crank up the power on my analytical microscope in order to find anything interesting to say about one of the least...
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70% of Freddie's Portfolio Suggests Refis Aren't...

Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 27.7 percent in August compared to a 20.0 percent gain...
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FHFA's Official Report on Q2 Mortgage Relief Numbers

In its 2 nd quarter Foreclosure Prevention and Refinance Report the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) says it has helped almost 4.7 million distressed...
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TGIF! Do Fridays mean as much as they did up until mid-March? Yes! Well, maybe. How about some non-mortgage stuff? There is, after all, life outside of...
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MBS RECAP: MBS Outperform; Bonds Stay Defiantly Sideways...

MBS Outperform; Bonds Stay Defiantly Sideways Overall The stock market tried a few different moves on the bond market today and while correlation is still...
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New Home Sales Crush Forecasts, Soaring to 14-Year...

Once again new home sales exceeded expectations, this time by a lot. Sales of newly built homes rose 4.8 percent in August, to a seasonally adjusted annual...
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MBS Day Ahead: Where Would We Be Without Stocks?

It's no secret that the bond market has been sideways for a month and a half by even the strictest definitions, and broadly sideways since first settling...
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Serious Delinquencies Grow, but Fewer Overall Missed...

As the COVID-19 crisis dragged into its sixth month in August the total number of mortgage delinquencies continued to ebb, but the rate of decline appears...
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Ops, LO, AE Jobs; Broker, Construction, MSR Management...

I need to make a dart board for the wall behind me for Zoom calls that has “rates up” and “rates down” and “rates the same”...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 2.98%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.61%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.35%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-04 (-0-00)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-17 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 110-14 (0-00)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -4.81%
|
Refinance Index -6.51%
|
Purchase Index -1.87%

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