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MBS RECAP: Markets Finally Doing Interesting Things, But...

MBS Day Ahead: The Obvious Bounce Could Be Too Obvious

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Digest ECB and Disease Risks

MBS Day Ahead: Infinite Faith vs Infinite Resignation: Bond Market...

MBS Week Ahead: Light Data Week Leaves Focus Overseas

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Client Engagement, Sales, API Products; Coronavirus Scare; ECB's...

Here's How The Average Loan Looked in December

Foreclosures at 14-Year Low; Loan "Mortality" up 126...

Non-QM, Loan Trading Products; Comp Survey; Moderate Expansion...

Mortgage Rates Maintaining Longer-Term Lows For Now

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Correct Into Weaker Territory As War Risk Dies Down

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by Matthew Graham on January 08 2020, 4:46 PM

Top and bottom line: war is good for bonds/rates. The risk of war had increased after last week's US attack on the Iranian general and flared further overnight after the Iranian attack on air bases in Baghdad. By not inflicting any US casualties,...
MBS Day Ahead: Shockingly, Bonds Face Uphill Battle Today

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by Matthew Graham on January 08 2020, 9:01 AM

Last night was intense to say the least. Bonds surged to the best levels in more than a month, and were close to the best levels in nearly 3 months after Iran attacked several air bases in Iraq. In the heat of the moment, the spectacular and ugly machine...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Remain Stuck in a Waiting Game

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by Matthew Graham on January 07 2020, 4:21 PM

Treasuries were modestly weaker today, while MBS outperformed by holding mostly steady. That keeps the bond market well within its recent range as well as the longer-term consolidation trend (intact since mid-October). Upward pressure on yields associated...
MBS Day Ahead: Balancing Data and Events Against Geopolitics

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by Matthew Graham on January 07 2020, 9:55 AM

Heading into the end of 2019, the easiest way to look at the bond market was through the lense of "consolidation." In other words, the trading range had been growing progressively narrower since September--so much so that a breakout seemed like...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Backpedal But Mostly Hold Recent Gains

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by Matthew Graham on January 06 2020, 5:05 PM

The Treasury market was on the back foot today as investors lightened holdings ahead of a busy week of bond market supply. A renewed risk-tolerance was also in play as the weekend failed to generate any headlines that pointed to major escalation in US...
MBS Week Ahead: 2019's Questions Quickly Being Answered in 2020

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by Matthew Graham on January 06 2020, 9:43 AM

For the bond market, almost the entirety of the 2nd half of 2019 was dominated by a consolidation pattern (a narrowing trend where periodic highs and lows in rates move closer and closer together). As recently as the beginning of last week, that consolidation...
MBS Day Ahead: Strong 2020 Start Gets Stronger For Unexpected Reasons

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by Matthew Graham on January 03 2020, 9:35 AM

We knew that volume and liquidity would be ramping back up after the holiday break (which is technically still going through this weekend for many) and that the increased activity could bring an increased bias in one direction or the other. But yesterday's...
MBS Day Ahead: Not Quite Back to Normal Trading

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by Matthew Graham on January 02 2020, 9:09 AM

Bonds will be fully open today and tomorrow, but we're not quite back to what would be considered "normal trading" yet. There is no significant data on tap today but volume should begin ramping back up as we are through the winter holidays...
MBS Day Ahead: Looks Like We Made It (Without Breaking The Range)

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by Matthew Graham on December 31 2019, 9:07 AM

Bonds close early today for New Year's Eve and are fully closed tomorrow for New Year's Day. There is no significant data on tap today although trade-related headlines remain a possibility. Even then, any major potential market mover would have...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Bounce Back After European Close

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by Matthew Graham on December 30 2019, 4:33 PM

Bond market holiday inertia would have been happy to continue were it not for a relative smattering of drama in European bond markets overnight. In fact, the inertia at home DID ultimately continue, but that wasn't obviously going to be the case earlier...
MBS Week Ahead: Still a Holiday Week, But More Transitional Time Time

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by Matthew Graham on December 30 2019, 10:14 AM

For the second straight week, the bond market will lose a day and a half of trading to holiday market closures. That largely implies the same effects as those seen last week (outlined in greater detail in the winter holiday message below). The short version...
MBS Day Ahead: No Significant Data as 2019 Winds Down

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by Matthew Graham on December 27 2019, 9:08 AM

Bonds are technically fully open today, but holiday trading themes remain. That means volume and liquidity will remain light, and trading momentum can arrive and depart for no good reason. A certain portion of the trading community will treat today as...
MBS Day Ahead: Markets Reopen But Holiday Vibes Remain

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by Matthew Graham on December 26 2019, 8:35 AM

Bond markets are fully open again today after 2 and a half days of for Christmas. While things could be a bit business than earlier this week, volume and liquidity will remain light, and trading momentum can arrive and depart for no good reason. Technically...
MBS RECAP: Friendly But Ultimately Inconsequential Move After 5yr Auction

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by Matthew Graham on December 24 2019, 1:12 PM

Bond trading was every bit as uneventful as it should have been to start the day. Volumes were as light as they get and weakness was modest at worst. The only x-factor was the 5yr Treasury auction which frankly could have had a variety of impacts on bonds...
MBS Day Ahead: Technically There's an Auction, But...

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by Matthew Graham on December 24 2019, 8:24 AM

Bond markets will be closed for Christmas tomorrow and only open for a half day today. Volume and liquidity will be mere shadows of their normal selves--especially today--and trading momentum can arrive and depart for no good reason. Technically, there's...

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Here's How The Average Loan Looked in December

The average interest rate on closed loans inched up in December and the share of those loans that were for refinancing moved lower. Ellie Mae's Origination...
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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Digest ECB and Disease Risks

The bond market--widely expected to have been launching yields up and over 2% in 2020--is instead in the process of testing it's best levels since...
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Mortgage Rates Maintaining Longer-Term Lows For Now

Mortgage rates remained in line with 3-month lows today for the average lender. Several lenders offered marginally better terms compared to yesterday,...
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Existing Home Sales Highest in Nearly 2 Years

Existing home sales rose convincingly in December, gaining 3.6 percent compared to sales the prior month. Sales of all existing home types , single-family...
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MBS Day Ahead: Infinite Faith vs Infinite Resignation...

You know things are bad when I resort to invoking Kierkegaard in bond market commentary, but that's what it's come to. Our quest to observe something...
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Home Prices Still Growing at More than 5% Annually

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Fannie Predicts Pick-Up in Residential Construction...

In its first economic forecast of 2020, Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group is doubling down on its late 2019 predictions. The economists...
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Mortgage Application Volume Retains Most of Last Week's...

The volume of mortgage applications submitted during the week ended January 17 slowed after a strong performance - a 30.2 percent increase - the prior...
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Mortgage Rates Back to 3-Month Lows

Mortgage rates dropped to begin the holiday-shortened week as markets expressed a bit of panic over the coronavirus outbreak in China. This is similar...
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Gen Z and Millennials Plan on Buying Homes in Larger...

The share of adults who told the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) they were considering a home purchase in the next year has now fallen year...
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MBS Week Ahead: Light Data Week Leaves Focus Overseas...

In addition to being a 4-day trading week due to yesterday's holiday, there's also a general lack of big-ticket economic data on tap. In fact,...
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Non-QM, Digital Tools; Population Shifts in Lending;...

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Cap Extraordinarily Tame Week Despite...

We've seen a whole lot more movement in the bond market for a whole lot less motivation than we had this week. Back to back econ data shockers (Philly...
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Mortgage Rates Off Recent Lows

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher over the past two days as strong economic data and corporate earnings coaxed investors into riskier assets like stocks...
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Markets Wrapping Things Up Ahead of Long Weekend

Sometimes the market moves in clear response to a headline event or the scheduled release of an economic report. We have clear examples of this recently...
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December's Housing Starts Surged to 13-Year High

While permits fell from the previous month, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development said December was another exceptional...
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Renovation Products; CEOs Can't Ignore LIBOR Transition;...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.61%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.22%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.69%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 105-26 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 107-04 (0-06)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 107-21 (-0-04)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -1.21%
|
Refinance Index -1.77%
|
Purchase Index -2.01%

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