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MBS Day Ahead: Fed Announcement: March Madness Edition

MBS RECAP: Bonds Officially Held January's Range Ahead of...

MBS Day Ahead: Looks Like We Made It

MBS RECAP: After Green Binge, Bonds Take "Sick" Day

MBS Week Ahead: Both Sides of Market Getting Excited For The...

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MBS RECAP: Bonds More Than Make Up For Last Week's Bumpy Ride

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by Matthew Graham on March 08 2019, 4:14 PM

From bumpy ride to smooth sailing: bonds gained more ground this week than they lost during last week's range-breaking sell-off. I firmly believe that would not have been the case were it not for the key events of the past 2 days. Yesterday, it was...
MBS Day Ahead: Crazy Low NFP, But Bonds Are Respecting The Range

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by Matthew Graham on March 08 2019, 9:35 AM

Truth is stranger than fiction sometimes. In today's case, the fiction is the fairly logical story most traders would write in their minds. That story starts with today's nonfarm payroll count coming in at 20k versus a forecast of 180k and a previous...
MBS RECAP: Big Help From Europe; NFP Up Next

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by Matthew Graham on March 07 2019, 4:47 PM

Today was all about the European Central Bank's surprisingly bond-friendly announcement and press conference. Considering markets already expected (and had largely priced-in) a friendly ECB day, The fact that the ECB was able to deliver a rally-worthy...
MBS Day Ahead: Last Week's Bond Bounce Risk Quickly Quelled by ECB

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by Matthew Graham on March 07 2019, 9:25 AM

Bonds have had a good thing going so far in 2019. Various geopolitical uncertainties combined with the prospect of downbeat economic growth in Q1 and a generally dovish Federal Reserve to keep rates near recent lows. All this in spite of a somewhat substantial...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Shake Off Solid ADP Revision; Bigger Fish to Fry

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by Matthew Graham on March 06 2019, 5:01 PM

At first glance, this morning's ADP Employment data may have been cause for bond market concern. It wasn't that the headline was much higher than expected. In fact, it was lower! But the revision to the previous month was quite a bit higher (300k...
MBS Day Ahead: What's Up With Stocks Versus Bonds Recently?

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by Matthew Graham on March 06 2019, 10:31 AM

If you're a frequent reader, you're likely tired of hearing about "the range." Such is life when bonds are range-bound, but that doesn't mean we can't change things up. Let's check in with the good old stock lever (our shorthand...
MBS RECAP: Widespread Reprices as Bonds Start Weak, Finish Strong

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by Matthew Graham on March 05 2019, 7:27 PM

The bond market was already in the process of holding ground in the overnight session and domestic trading hours only added to the resilience. It may not have seemed overly obvious at first--especially when the day's biggest victory occurred when...
MBS Day Ahead: Week's First Significant Economic Data as Bonds Build Ceiling

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by Matthew Graham on March 05 2019, 9:10 AM

It may seem a bit counter-intuitive to be talking up economic data in light of last week's bond sell-off. Friday saw weaker-than-expected consumer spending and sentiment as well as the lowest ISM Manufacturing PMI in more than 2 years. Nonetheless...
MBS RECAP: Rates Begin to Make Case For a New Ceiling

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by Matthew Graham on March 04 2019, 4:14 PM

As we watched bond markets sell-off abruptly last week, the best case scenario would have been that the selling was overdone and that we would soon be settling-in to the wider sideways range we expected to see in early March. Why did we expect a wider...
MBS Week Ahead: Best Case Scenario: The Range Just Got Wider

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by Matthew Graham on March 04 2019, 9:22 AM

2019 had been (and perhaps continues to be) dominated by an increasingly narrow range. To appreciate just how narrow things have been, consider the month of February had the tightest trading range since 1979. We'd been tracking the fairly linear consolidation...
MBS RECAP: Pain Trade Continues Despite Weaker Econ Data

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by Matthew Graham on March 01 2019, 5:04 PM

Heading into today, if you were hoping to see rates move lower, it would have made sense to hope for economic data to come in weaker than expected. There is one scenario , however, where weaker data arrives in the middle of a multi-day bond market rout...
MBS Day Ahead: Range Breakout Quickly Getting Serious

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by Matthew Graham on March 01 2019, 9:26 AM

The long-standing consolidation range in 10yr Treasury yields finally came under serious attack yesterday, with a big breakout to the upside. Any time these sorts of trendlines are broken--and especially if that break occurs on the last day of any given...
MBS RECAP: Range Breakout!

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by Matthew Graham on February 28 2019, 7:14 PM

GDP doesn't usually move markets as clearly as it did today, but today was a bit of an anomaly. First off, we'd been waiting for this revision longer than normal due to the shutdown. Beyond that, it was a fairly sharp revision forecast due not...
MBS Day Ahead: Biggest Threat To The Range, But There's a Catch

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by Matthew Graham on February 28 2019, 9:53 AM

As many of you are likely tired of hearing, bonds have been locked in an increasingly narrow trading range for weeks. The bounces at the boundaries have been almost perfectly well behaved. In other words, since setting the lines for the first time, we...
MBS RECAP: Lots of Sound and Fury, But Little Significance

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by Matthew Graham on February 27 2019, 5:41 PM

"Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing" That's one of my favorite lines from some old book I read, or maybe it was a play (hint: it was a play!), because it operates so well outside Macbeth's lamentation of the futility of life...

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MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Officially Held January's Range...

Bonds began the day in weaker territory following overnight headlines suggesting European leaders would be going up to bat for a compromise Brexit deal...
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Mortgage rates were flat for the 4th day in a row today in a sign that investors have largely taken their seats for tomorrow's big show. The Fed will release...
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Once Considered Inferior, Automated Appraisals Are...

Although lacking in popularity, it appears that automated appraisals have obtained their intended results. Urban Institute (UI) researchers Laurie Goodman...
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MBS Day Ahead: Looks Like We Made It

Rates staged an impressive rally in November and December before bottoming out on the first trading day of 2019. The bounce was fairly abrupt at the time...
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Sales, Marketing Products; Lender Training; MBS Platform...

At roughly $8,500 per loan and continuing to defy gravity, scholars disagree on whether vendors lower the cost of originating a residential loan. But then...
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MBS RECAP: After Green Binge, Bonds Take "Sick"...

For the bond market St Paddy's day was a 2 week celebration of "green" (as in the color of price gains or falling yields on trading terminals...
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Mortgage Rates Hold 14-Month Lows

Mortgage rates didn't budge today--a logical result with no signs of life in underlying bond markets. In the current case, this is just fine with us considering...
MND NewsWire

Builder Confidence Holds Steady After Recovering From...

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) held steady in March , after partially recovering from substantial...
MBS Commentary

MBS Week Ahead: Both Sides of Market Getting Excited...

This week's economic calendar is exceptionally light, with no true top-tier reports. Even the 2nd-tier data is limited with Philly Fed on Thursday...
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LO Jobs; Warehouse Products; 1099 Comp - Brokers and...

I hope that I never get to the point of writing things down on my “to do” list even after I’ve done them, just so I can cross them off...
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Squeezed to Best Levels in Months...

Uncertainty has reigned supreme for much of 2019 as traders weigh shifting economic data, potential data inconsistencies (due the shutdown), trade policy...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Rates Stay Low; Bigger Risks/Rewards Next Week

Mortgage rates remained at recent lows today, as underlying bond markets strengthened. For US Treasuries, this brought rates to new multi-month lows. Mortgage...
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Aging Americans, Aging Housing Stock Driving Remodel...

Nearly 80 percent of America's housing stock is at least 20 years old and twice that share of homes were built 50 or more years ago. With new construction...
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MBS Day Ahead: Not Another Ides of March Headline

People who write articles every day love holidays and other dates that offer some reprieve from the need to be creative when it comes to writing headlines...
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Broker Products; UK says no to "no deal";...

I didn’t know that America has a “most hated” type of home loan until Bloomberg “informed” me that reverse mortgages are…...
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MBA has a More Upbeat View on New Home Sales

Even though the January Census Bureau report on new home sales published on Thursday wasn't all that encouraging for the spring market, the Mortgage Bankers...
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MBS RECAP: Small Scale Volatility Lost in Big Picture...

In the bigger picture, we'll look back at today's intraday trading range and it will be completely meaningless--among the narrower days of 1st...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Lowest in More Than a Year

Mortgage rates held steady today, despite moderate weakness in underlying bond markets. This occurred for two reasons. First, yesterday saw bond markets...
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Surge of New Home Sales in West Salvage January Numbers

It seems like only yesterday that we were looking at the December new home sale numbers - well actually it was 6 days ago. Now we have the January sales...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: How Much Do We Really Care About Brexit...

Top line, bottom line: Brexit is a big deal. Without the Brexit referendum in mid-2016, US bond yields never would have revisited all-time lows. It's...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.40%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.98%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.20%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 103-29 (0-03)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 105-08 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 106-11 (0-02)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.47%
|
Refinance Index -2.02%
|
Purchase Index -2.63%

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