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MBS RECAP: Only Two Interesting Minutes of the Day

MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Hit Hard by Stronger Jobs; Holding...

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MBS RECAP: Uneventful Afternoon After Morning Volatility

MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Fighting Back Against Morning Weakness...

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Breaking Down Weather Implications in Stronger Employment Report

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NAHB Leading Markets Data Bodes Well for 2014

Freddie Mac Weekly Rate Report Lagging Reality; Rates are Actually...

Home Equity Growth Stalled in Fourth Quarter

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MBS RECAP: Positive Reprices as Month-End Saves Afternoon

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by Matthew Graham on February 28 2014, 3:57 PM

Month-end to the rescue! We've been talking about it all week and now the phenomenon (month-end buying) is a major contributor in bond markets' ability to stem losses and bounce back today. Some of the weakness was in place from the overnight...
MBS MID-DAY: Weaker After Econ Data but Still in The Game

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by Matthew Graham on February 28 2014, 12:41 PM

Bond markets went into the locker room after this morning's econ data fairly discouraged, but not enough to give up. That was less obviously the case between 10 and 11am when MBS were over a quarter of a point weaker on the day and 10yr yields were...
MBS Day Ahead: MBS Try to Break 11 Month Dry Spell

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by Matthew Graham on February 28 2014, 8:00 AM

With the past five sessions having been green for MBS, today affords them the opportunity to do something they haven't done since the end of March 2013. That was the last time production coupon MBS (the stuff that's most relevant to lender rate...
MBS RECAP: Coasting Out Near Best Levels Since November

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by Matthew Graham on February 27 2014, 4:52 PM

Fannie 4.0s are up 5 ticks at 104-28. That's 9 ticks lower than the early February highs, but keep in mind those highs came just before the roll, which was about 10 ticks. So in a magical world where there's no monthly MBS settlement, we would...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Holding Gains During Yellen Testimony

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by Matthew Graham on February 27 2014, 12:24 PM

MBS began the session in slightly stronger territory and soon gave up those gains after stronger-than-expected Durable Goods data. Despite the pull-back, prices managed to hold support at unchanged levels. Those session lows along with the opening highs...
MBS Day Ahead: Rally Looks to Yellen, Data, and Auction for Confirmation

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by Matthew Graham on February 27 2014, 8:00 AM

In two short days, bond markets have gone from being closer to 1-month highs to the best levels in more than two weeks. Such things only become possible when ranges are narrow and sideways, and indeed they have been. In fact, rates have been consolidating...
MBS RECAP: Choppy Morning Surrounding Data, Stronger After Auction

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by Matthew Graham on February 26 2014, 4:33 PM

If trading days were sporting events, today would be a great game. There were several score changes, but the home team came out strong after half-time for a decisive victory . Early in "the game," bond markets struggled slightly with Treasuries...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Weaker, Stronger, Neutral--in That Order

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by Matthew Graham on February 26 2014, 12:38 PM

The day began with MBS and Treasuries in weaker territory after an uneventful overnight session. There wasn't much to the weakness and it only made for a few bps higher in 10's and 3-5 ticks lower in MBS. From there, geopolitical risk headlines...
MBS Day Ahead: New Home Sales, Treasury Auctions, and Fed Speakers

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by Matthew Graham on February 26 2014, 8:00 AM

Today's calendar is less busy overall, compared to Tuesday, but offers a good mix of data and events . The only significant economic report of the day is New Home Sales, expected to come in at a 400k unit annual pace compared to 414k last month. Here's...
MBS RECAP: Calm, Strong Day; Scattered Positive Reprices

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by Matthew Graham on February 25 2014, 4:18 PM

Today ended up being one of the the calmest in recent memory in terms of price volatility in MBS. From 9:30am on, the biggest gap between the day's highs and lows never exceeded 2/32nds. Prices rose all day, leveling-off parabolically with Fannie...
MBS MID-DAY: Strong Gains For Bond Markets Before and After Data

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by Matthew Graham on February 25 2014, 12:19 PM

Bond markets are seeing their best day of gains since last Tuesday with 10yr yields down from 2.75 to just over 2.70. Fannie 4.0 MBS are up 10 ticks. Roughly 3/4ths of the improvement came even before the 10am Consumer Confidence data and was potentially...
MBS Day Ahead: How Much does Consumer Confidence Data Matter?

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by Matthew Graham on February 25 2014, 8:00 AM

As far as economic reports go, Consumer Confidence (often lumped together psychologically with "Consumer Sentiment") occupies that well-populated "2nd tier" of reports that are more important than the non-market-movers but not quite...
MBS RECAP: Outperforming Treasuries; Heading Out at Best Levels

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by Matthew Graham on February 24 2014, 4:26 PM

Bond markets overall have seen a fair share of ups and downs today, albeit in a narrow range. But where Treasuries took 2 steps back, MBS usually only took 1. Where Treasuries took a step forward, MBS usually took 2. Thus we find ourselves near the end...
MBS MID-DAY: Uneventful Morning for Bond Markets

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by Matthew Graham on February 24 2014, 12:18 PM

Although Treasury yields have been moving in the same direction as stock prices, the magnitude is completely different. Whereas the S&P is up an impressive 20 points to new all-time highs, Treasury yields are merely on the edge of their weakest levels...
MBS Week Ahead: Some of This Week's Events Might Actually Matter

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by Matthew Graham on February 24 2014, 8:00 AM

Frustration and confusion are ongoing themes for bond markets at the moment. The most visible antagonist in that regard is the "weather effect," whereby a harsher than average winter may or may not be affecting economic metrics enough to render...

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