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MBS RECAP: Moderate Selling Followed by Heavy Selling and Tons...

MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Weaker After Economic Data Prompting...

MBS Day Ahead: Biggest Economic Data of the Week; Bond Markets...

MBS RECAP: Sharply Sideways Day for Bond Markets

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Purchases Continue Taking Market Share; FICOs Trending Lower; Rates Sharply Higher; Foreclosures with Positive Equity

Published: 4/17/2014

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MBS MID-DAY: Snowball Buying Brings Bonds to Best Levels in a Month.

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by Matthew Graham on April 10 2014, 12:33 PM

Earlier this morning, there was a solid 30 minutes where it looked like stronger economic data would make things challenging for bond markets heading into the afternoon. But half an hour is as long as that lasted. Multiple asset classes around the globe...
MBS Day Ahead: Week's First Economic Data and Last Treasury Auction

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by Matthew Graham on April 10 2014, 7:51 AM

Bond markets bounced back into positive territory after yesterday's FOMC Minutes. MBS fared better than the longer-dated Treasuries (10's and 30's), but it's very likely that some of the Treasury weakness in those two particular maturities...
MBS RECAP: FOMC Minutes Help MBS get Back to Positive Territory

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by Matthew Graham on April 09 2014, 4:18 PM

The day ends with something of a mixed message as Treasuries are still slightly weaker in 10 and 30yr maturities while 2-7yrs are stronger, along with MBS. All had begun the day in weaker territory and remained there for most of the session. The 10yr...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Continue Holding Ground Ahead of Auction/FOMC

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by Matthew Graham on April 09 2014, 11:50 AM

So far, the opening prices have been the worst of the day for MBS. In addition to the 12 ticks accounted for by the roll, Fannie 4.0s were another 5 ticks weaker at the start of the session, opening at 104-02. They've improved steadily , but very...
MBS Day Ahead: Still in Good Shape Following The Roll; FOMC and 10yr Auction Ahead

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by Matthew Graham on April 09 2014, 7:50 AM

Last night was Class A Settlement for MBS--aka " the roll ." If the roll causes any confusion (which it tends to do until it clicks for you), try thinking of it like an assembly line. Every box on the assembly line is like every month of the...
MBS RECAP: More Traction for Bond Markets; MBS Roll Tonight

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by Matthew Graham on April 08 2014, 4:38 PM

There were no overly interesting headlines or economic reports in today's session to guide market movements. Instead of taking cues from data and events, traders were left to watch other traders and adjust positions accordingly ahead of tomorrow's...
MBS MID-DAY: Holding Moderate Gains and Outperforming Treasuries

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by Matthew Graham on April 08 2014, 12:16 PM

MBS traded lower during the first hour of the day but made it back into positive territory just after 9am. Treasuries have followed a similar pattern in terms of movement. The bounce in 10yr yields wasn't quite enough to get them back into positive...
MBS Day Ahead: Bond Markets Open to Suggestion Amid Lack of Data

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by Matthew Graham on April 08 2014, 7:51 AM

Yesterday, we talked about the current week being an opportunity for bond markets to reflect on the range that's dominated most of 2014 (starting Jan 24th). The opportunity comes courtesy of a lack of actionable economic data. While Wednesday's...
MBS RECAP: Post-NFP Rally Continues with Help From Stocks

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by Matthew Graham on April 07 2014, 4:06 PM

Today's story isn't much more complicated than the headline. It's not uncommon to see some follow-through on Monday following NFP Friday if the latter caused a big move. That said, we didn't have that sort of rally right from the beginning...
MBS MID-DAY: Strong Morning For Bond Markets with Some Help From Stocks

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by Matthew Graham on April 07 2014, 11:52 AM

Stock market momentum isn't the only consideration for bond markets this morning, but it's perhaps the most overt . So far, it's helped MBS and Treasuries build nicely on Friday's gains. Domestic bond markets began the day essentially...
MBS Week Ahead: Reflecting on Range, QE, and FOMC Changes

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by Matthew Graham on April 07 2014, 7:51 AM

This week marks the first major intermission for the bond markets story in 2014. The first act was intensely sideways, leading to phrases like " serious monotony problem ." That observation was exactly one week ago today, in anticipation of...
MBS RECAP: Strong Day for Bond Markets, But 8-Ball Remains Cloudy

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by Matthew Graham on April 04 2014, 4:56 PM

If you missed it for some reason--and that's entirely possible on an NFP day--there was an important dark horse market mover today, just a short while after this morning's NFP release. When wires hit regarding the ECB modeling a €1 trillion...
MBS MID-DAY: 2 Steps Forward After Jobs Report, 2 More From Europe and Stocks

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by Matthew Graham on April 04 2014, 12:30 PM

Bond markets came into the session essentially unchanged after having held near the higher end of their recent range in the few days leading up to this morning's jobs report. The headline Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 192k versus a forecast consensus...
MBS Day Ahead: How Much Could NFP Miss Forecasts and How Would Markets React?

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by Matthew Graham on April 04 2014, 7:51 AM

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is always the biggest potential market mover on any given month in terms of economic reports. FOMC Announcements, for instance, are not economic reports, and certainly can outshine NFP on occasion, but NFP certainly has more consistent...
MBS RECAP: No Bond Market Fireworks Before Friday's Big Show

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by Matthew Graham on April 03 2014, 4:05 PM

In one of today's updates for MBS live subscribers, I noted that bond markets continued to trade " as expected ." Where did those expectations come from? Earth-shattering conclusion : rates could have gone higher or lower today. While that...

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