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MBS RECAP: With Nothing Better to do, Bonds Follow Stocks and...

MBS MID-DAY: With Little Else to Watch, Rates Follow Stocks Lower...

MBS Week Ahead: Limited Data This Week, but Several Housing-Related...

MBS RECAP: As Initial Headline Shock Fades, Bonds Level-Off

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Home Prices to Level Off and Reverse Course Within 2 Years; Rates Steady to Slightly Lower; Markets React to Geopolitics

Published: 7/21/2014

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MBS RECAP: Steadily Weaker All Day, but for no Particular Reason

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by Matthew Graham on July 14 2014, 4:19 PM

Bond markets simply *were* weaker today. Certainly, there was no overt reason for this, and the less obvious reasons are open to debate. Even if we could assign perfect measures of blame to various factors, trading was so sparse today that we can't...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Remain Under Pressure on Slow Trading Day

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by Matthew Graham on July 14 2014, 11:51 AM

Asian, European, and domestic markets have all agreed: it's a quiet trading day . The light volumes make for a situation where it doesn't take much doing to move trading levels. The result is an amount of market movement that looks like any other...
MBS Day Ahead: Yellen Testimony, Retail Sales, and Housing Data

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by Matthew Graham on July 14 2014, 7:31 AM

Last week was a dud in terms of scheduled events. This week isn't the polar opposite, but it's much more active. Monday and Friday are the only days without at least a few interesting items on tap. That said, merely knowing that there's a...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Slightly Stronger Today, Capping Full Week of Gains

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by Matthew Graham on July 11 2014, 5:30 PM

Treasuries and MBS walked a cautious path to the exits today, staying perfectly inside the middle of yesterday's trading range. The overnight session was less dramatic than recent examples and Treasury trading in Asia/Europe seemed less interested...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Holding Decent Gains Without Help From Europe This Time

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by Matthew Graham on July 11 2014, 12:04 PM

Bond markets have been stronger today, and have carved out a linear trend of improvements from morning price levels. Interestingly enough, this strength is not something that's easily pinned on Europe or other overt factors. Treasuries have outperformed...
MBS Day Ahead: Empty Calendar Leaves Focus on Europe and Earnings

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by Matthew Graham on July 11 2014, 7:42 AM

There are no significant economic reports on the calendar today, and the week's auction cycle is already wrapped up. While there are two Fed speakers, the speeches are unlikely to be major market movers. That leaves Europe and Equities markets as...
MBS RECAP: Strong Start Thanks to Europe, Gradual Losses Leave Modest Gains Intact

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by Matthew Graham on July 10 2014, 4:30 PM

Eurozone contagion made an appearance today in much the same way it did for nearly all of 2010-2012. This time around, it's Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo causing problems for Portugal's sovereign borrowing costs. This in turn drove flights...
MBS MID-DAY: Stronger Start Thanks to Europe; Fading a Bit Ahead of Auction

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by Matthew Graham on July 10 2014, 12:27 PM

Core European debt markets set the tone for the overnight session. That means German Bunds big rally helped US Treasury yields move lower overnight. One of the key root causes for today's move is the same sort of EU contagion that was so prevalent...
MBS Day Ahead: Jobless Claims, Last Auction, and More NFP Reflections

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by Matthew Graham on July 10 2014, 7:39 AM

Let's do the same thing we did yesterday and get the daily analysis out of the way in one paragraph so I can wrap up the "NFP Reflections." Yesterday's got a bit wordy, so there's not much more to say, just some data that I put into...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Rally on Hidden Gem in FOMC Minutes

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by Matthew Graham on July 09 2014, 5:16 PM

While the overnight session was slightly weaker and the 10yr auction made things that much worse, the day's main event was undoubtedly the FOMC Minutes. There are two ways to look at the reaction. The less interesting, more cynical way to account...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Weaker Ahead of 10yr Auction/FOMC; MBS Underperform

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by Matthew Graham on July 09 2014, 12:09 PM

While MBS have made up some ground compared to Treasuries over the past few hours, they're generally underperforming this week. Fannie 3.5s are down 5 ticks today compared to Treasuries being down 3 ticks in price. The culprit is very likely the monthly...
MBS Day Ahead: Treasury Auction, FOMC Minutes, and Special NFP Reflections

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by Matthew Graham on July 09 2014, 7:55 AM

We'll get the normal "day ahead' stuff out of the way in a paragraph today because I spent most of my writing time on something I otherwise wasn't going to get to. There's not much to say about bond markets that continue trading in a range (marked by...
MBS RECAP: Participation Returns and Votes in Favor of Range

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by Matthew Graham on July 08 2014, 4:38 PM

Market participation was pathetic yesterday--the lightest session since at least April. Today was merely "average" but that's a huge improvement over yesterday. As markets regained a pulse, it beat steadily toward lower bond yields-- thus...
MBS MID-DAY: Holding Solid Gains With Help From Stocks and Europe

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by Matthew Graham on July 08 2014, 11:54 AM

With today continuing yesterday's tradition of offering very little by way of scheduled events, bond markets must look elsewhere for cues. Actually, that's not really a fair conclusion considering bond markets haven't really been paying much...
MBS Day Ahead: Surprisingly Enough, Still Fighting to Hold the Range

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by Matthew Graham on July 08 2014, 7:42 AM

"The range" is admittedly an overused term, and it requires constant contextual clarification. While various examples offer convenient connections between MBS and Treasuries, it's the latter that typically acts as the representative. Today's...

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