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MBS Day Ahead: Bond Markets Debating Seriousness of ECB Tapering...

MBS RECAP: On Guard For One Central Banker, Bonds Get Rocked...

MBS Day Ahead: Rattled by Draghi, Traders Wait For Yellen

MBS RECAP: Weak Durable Goods Helps Bonds Hold Gains

MBS Week Ahead: Bonds Look to Data and Month-End For Breakout...

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Curtain May be Rising on Another GSE Drama

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Signs of Slowing Despite Record High Home Prices; Rates Bounce Higher; More GSE Drama?

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MBS RECAP: Negative Housing Sets Positive Tone for Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on June 16 2017, 5:04 PM

Today was destined to be a sideways grind at slightly weaker levels for bond markets. This would have extended the theme that had been in place since Wednesday's FOMC events. The weakness probably wouldn't have erased Wednesday's gains. The...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds May Not Decide Much Today, And That Would be a Good Thing

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by Matthew Graham on June 16 2017, 9:09 AM

Bond markets may not give a stellar performance today, offering resounding confirmation of an ongoing rally. Conversely, they're not likely to rise enough to raise serious questions about an ongoing rally. When it comes to getting a sense of potential...
MBS RECAP: Post-Fed Weakness Brings Bonds Back to The Gap

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by Matthew Graham on June 15 2017, 4:26 PM

To be fair to the Fed, they didn't really cause most of today's weakness. Bond markets already showed their hand with respect to yesterday's Fed events--essentially endorsing the rate hike, the forecasts, and the balance sheet plan as something...
MBS Day Ahead: Big Discussion About Big-Picture Bond Market Trends

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by Matthew Graham on June 15 2017, 9:34 AM

Yesterday's rally was a potential game changer for the "great push back" of 2017 . That's not the official term for the past several months of general positivity in bond markets, but the underlying phenomenon is as official as it gets...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Rally on Data's Truth. Fed's Spin Mostly Ignored

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by Matthew Graham on June 14 2017, 5:34 PM

In a weird way, today's Fed announcement came out right at 8:30am when Core CPI dropped to 1.7%, falling well short of the 1.9% median forecast (year-over-year). While the Fed prefers PCE as an inflation metric, the two tend to hang out pretty close...
Differences Between Current and Previous FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on June 14 2017, 2:03 PM

(Additions underlined, deletions struck through) Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in MarchMay indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen even as growth inand that economic activity slowed.has been rising...
MBS Day Ahead: All About The Fed's Rate Hike Expectations

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by Matthew Graham on June 14 2017, 8:32 AM

If you follow bond market movement for long enough, one thing becomes clear above all others: the Fed is the most reliable explanation for shifts in momentum. That's not to say that bond markets are primarily driven by the Fed. After all, one could...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Sending Clear Message Ahead of Fed

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2017, 4:55 PM

The past 3 trading sessions have largely represented a consolidation in prices and yields, just off the best levels of the year. There has certainly been a risk that rates were bouncing off those levels only to begin the next uptrend (much like mid April...
MBS Day Ahead: Last Day of Moderate Data/Events Before Things Get Serious

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2017, 8:47 AM

While we do have some economic data to get through today (Producer Prices, which are already out stronger than expected, and the afternoon's 30yr bond auction), the lion's share of the f ocus remains on the bigger picture and the bigger-ticket...
MBS RECAP: Auction Results = Offsetting Penalties For Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on June 12 2017, 5:16 PM

Today's bond trading was largely a story of the 3yr Treasury auction vs the 10yr Treasury auction. Both of these are used to encountering each other on the same week, but not usually on the same day . In fact the "3, 10, 30" auction cycle...
MBS Week Ahead: Densely-Packed Week Promises to Impact Bond Markets

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by Matthew Graham on June 12 2017, 9:10 AM

It would be miraculous to see bond markets escape this week without experiencing some sort of reaction to the plethora of data and scheduled events. From a market movement potential standpoint, respect must first be given to Wednesday afternoon's...
MBS RECAP: Did Someone Say "Absence of Volatility?"

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by Matthew Graham on June 09 2017, 5:20 PM

Yesterday's recap was titled "Surprising (or Not?) Absence of Volatility." Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice... won't be fooled again. The UK election was billed as a big-ticket event for traders, but in hindsight, it's clear...
MBS Day Ahead: Bigger Picture Bounce Risk Remains After High-Risk Events

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by Matthew Graham on June 09 2017, 9:02 AM

All of our high-risk events for this week have come and gone, and bond markets aren't able to justify the stronger "lead-off" levels that marked the preparation for more dire outcomes. While it is worth something that yields haven't...
MBS RECAP: Surprising (or Not?) Absence of Volatility

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by Matthew Graham on June 08 2017, 4:55 PM

Perhaps it had to do with yesterday's 1st round of Senate testimony or Comey's prepared remarks giving bond markets an unfriendly bump, but bonds ended up doing very little with today's much-anticipated Comey Q&A. Then again, not much...
MBS Day Ahead: After a Nice Run, Bond Rally Considers Its Mortality

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by Matthew Graham on June 08 2017, 9:02 AM

A few days ago, I laid out a bullish long-term case for bond markets. I could probably do something similar for a bearish case, but when it comes to bearish risks, it's easier if we forget about the longer-term and focus on short-to-medium-term trends...

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Diversity Not Destined to Dampen Homeownership

The final installment of a series of working papers produced by the University of Southern California (USC), in partnership with Fannie Mae, looks at the...
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MBS Day Ahead: Bond Traders Eyeing The Exits As Flat...

You've heard of "innocent until proven guilty." This week of trading in bond markets has been "flat and boring until proven volatile...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.00%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.27%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.25%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 107-14 (0-00)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-11 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 110-28 (0-00)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 4.36%
|
Refinance Index 10.47%
|
Purchase Index -0.82%

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