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MBS RECAP: Bonds Make Case For a Comeback

MBS Day Ahead: Should The Last Trend Get a Do-Over?

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Fight Back, But This is Still 'Bearish...

MBS RECAP: Range-Bound Volatility as Bonds Respond to Corporate...

MBS Week Ahead: Bonds Staging at 2019's Most Important Crossroads

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Broker, Marketing, DPA Tools; GSE Changes; Yield Curve, Employment...

Mortgage Rates Continue Much-Needed Recovery

Underwriting, Broker, ECOA, Free LPMI Products; Fire AND Flood...

Access to Conventional/Jumbo Credit Increased in October

Consumers Shaky Again on Whether it's a Good Time to Buy

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Published: 11/14/2019

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MBS Day Ahead: NFP vs ISM

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by Matthew Graham on November 01 2019, 9:41 AM

Bonds rallied big yesterday on a combination of factors. These included a rejection of the Trump administration's claimed timeline for the US/China trade deal with sources citing Chinese officials and a super weak reading on Chicago PMI. The gains...
MBS RECAP: Suddenly, Bonds May Be Back in Business

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by Matthew Graham on October 31 2019, 5:59 PM

Most of the month of October was rotten for the bond market. Material progress on the trade deal, a leveling-off of economic data deterioration, and fears about a major shift in the Fed's policy stance all did damage (among other things). Now in the...
MBS Day Ahead: Why Chicago PMI is More Important Than PCE Inflation

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by Matthew Graham on October 31 2019, 8:35 AM

Chicago PMI isn't always more important that PCE inflation. After all Core PCE is the Fed's favorite big-picture inflation reading (the thing they want to see at 2.0%) and inflation is one of the key motivations for hiking/cutting the Fed's...
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on October 30 2019, 2:02 PM

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in JulySeptember indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and...
MBS Day Ahead: Big Clues About Bonds' Pre-Fed Stance in Futures

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by Matthew Graham on October 30 2019, 10:08 AM

The bond market had a decent enough day yesterday as it managed to hold steady-to-slightly-stronger versus Monday's ugly closing levels. "Supply" (aka new debt issuance) concerns weighed on bonds as did another run to all-time highs in the...
MBS RECAP: Narrow Range and Drama-Free Ahead of Fed

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by Matthew Graham on October 29 2019, 5:33 PM

The only way to read anything overly dramatic into today's bond trading would simply be to observe where it falls in the bigger picture. In other words, this sort of stuff . There were no major reactions to today's econ data--not that we'd...
MBS Day Ahead: Don't Let The Green Fool You

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by Matthew Graham on October 29 2019, 9:28 AM

Yesterday saw the bond market sell off in a fairly frustrating way. Granted, there was some justification for the initial overnight weakness courtesy of an approved Brexit extension, but it was actually the DOMESTIC bond market that sold off more aggressively...
MBS Week Ahead: No Relief For Bonds as Busy Week Begins

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by Matthew Graham on October 28 2019, 9:52 AM

Last Friday's morning commentary wasn't necessarily fun to read for fans of low rates, but it was important to digest for those that want to be prepared for both positive AND negative outcomes in bonds in the coming weeks/months. Click here to...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Looking Nervous and Impressionable

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by Matthew Graham on October 25 2019, 4:56 PM

Let's face it. It makes sense for the average bond trader to be more indecisive than normal right now. A no-deal Brexit was avoided this week (bad for bonds), but a Brexit deal couldn't make it through British parliament in time to beat the EU's...
Time To Start Asking The Tough Questions

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by Matthew Graham on October 25 2019, 11:17 AM

In about 2 weeks, the big bond rally of 2019 will officially be 1 year old (because it actually began in the 2nd week of November). This has been a uniquely interesting year for the bond market. Granted, there are plenty of other years with the same sort...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Having a Hard Time Trying to Improve

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by Matthew Graham on October 24 2019, 4:17 PM

At a few points in the past 2 days, it looked as if bonds were finally ready to move back toward lower yields after 2 weeks spent moving fairly quickly higher. After all, much of that weakness was due to fear that the UK could slam through a negotiated...
MBS Day Ahead: What's a PMI And Why Should We Care?

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by Matthew Graham on October 24 2019, 8:31 AM

Yesterday was fairly uneventful as global markets generally cooled off after 2 big days of Brexit-related volatility at the beginning of the week. For those of us following rates with a focus on the mortgage market, the most notable outcome was the highly...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Still Fighting to Stay In The Range

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by Matthew Graham on October 23 2019, 9:38 AM

Yesterday saw bonds respond almost exclusively to Brexit-related headlines (read THIS RECAP for a synopsis of the day's events and Brexit's impact on the bond market in general). If you're not into clicking links, here's the most relevant...
MBS RECAP: Have You Heard The One About Brexit and Bond Market Volatility?

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by Matthew Graham on October 22 2019, 5:42 PM

First things first: all of the volatility we're about to discuss has been occurring inside a fairly narrow range in the slightly bigger picture. Moreover, much of that narrow range exists inside an even bigger version of a 'narrowing' range...
MBS Day Ahead: Another Brexit Vote as Bonds Remain on Edge

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by Matthew Graham on October 22 2019, 9:32 AM

Yesterday saw an extension of the recent selling trend in bonds with yields hitting the highest levels in more than a month. One might argue that yesterday was actually a breakout from the consolidation trend we've been tracking, but there are two...

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Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Continue Much-Needed Recovery

Mortgage rates have been more willing to move higher than lower recently. While that may continue to be the case in the near-term future, there have been...
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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Fight Back, But This is Still...

The most defining moment of the big 2019 bond rally was undoubtedly the August 1st tariff announcement and the resulting massive reaction in both yields...
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Underwriting, Broker, ECOA, Free LPMI Products; Fire...

I continue to see headlines as I head to balmy Kansas today. There was, “A Court Ruling Makes Mortgages Vanish Into Thin Air.” This is a headline...
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Access to Conventional/Jumbo Credit Increased in October

Access to government loans continues to decline, but conventional and jumbo loans picked up the slack in October, pushing the Mortgage Credit Availability...
MND NewsWire

Consumers Shaky Again on Whether it's a Good Time...

Once again the "Good Time to Buy" component of Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) is on the decline. Net positive answers to that question...
MND NewsWire

Mortgage Applications Hit Recent Highs

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said application activity during the week ended November 8 was the strongest since late September , with both purchasing...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Range-Bound Volatility as Bonds Respond...

There are all kinds of bonds out there. We follow the 10yr Treasury even though this is a mortgage-specific site for reasons outlined here . Beyond Treasuries...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Avoid More Pain, Even if Only For Today

Mortgage rates had a bad October . November hasn't exactly been great either, with last Thursday being one of the worst days of the year in terms of day...
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NAR Addresses Cybersecurity, Says Take Precautions

A securities expert told an audience at the National Association of Realtors' (NAR's) annual conference that cybercrimes against real estate agents and...
MBS Commentary

MBS Week Ahead: Bonds Staging at 2019's Most Important...

1.90% has been the most important, most dangerous ceiling for 10yr Treasury yields ever since a nasty selling spree stalled out there exactly 2 months...
Pipeline Press

Compensation, Sales, Underwriting Tools; Tariffs, Trade...

Everyone has a different opinion about the economy. “Nobody’s right, if everybody’s wrong” or “Everybody’s right (eventually...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Holding Near 3-Month Highs

Mortgage rates launched to their highest levels in more than 3 months yesterday for a variety of reasons. Chief among them was a series of comments from...
MND NewsWire

Housing Affordability at Best Levels in Three Years

One year after hitting a ten-year low, housing affordability has risen to its highest level in three years. Rose Quint, writing in the National Association...
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NAR Survey Shows Buyers are Increasingly Older, Less...

The share of first-time buyers remains well below historic levels according to the National Association of Realtors' ® (NAR's) 2019 Profile of Home...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Lowered Expectations

If you don't expect anything good to happen for the bond market for the next few months, I guarantee you won't be disappointed. If, however, you...
Pipeline Press

Sales, Audit Tools; Vendors Raising Funds; 10-year...

As rumors swirl about Michael Bloomberg entering the race for president, MLOs are winding down for the year (a few have written to me saying that, after...
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Disaster Aftermath Can Make Losses Worse

The storm is over, the fires are out, but anyone who has survived a natural disaster, and that is more of us every year, knows that the problems are just...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Big Bad Day; Yes, Trade Headlines Still...

It was a big, bad day for the bond market, although the size of the thing ended up getting pared down just a bit in the afternoon. Chalk that up to a counterpoint...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Blasted by Trade Deal Progress

Mortgage rates surged higher at a rapid pace for the second time this week. Taken together, the jump is the biggest of its kind since the big rate spike...
MND NewsWire

Affordability Improves Even as Appreciation Accelerates

Are home price increases cranking up again? The quarterly report from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) on existing home sales and metropolitan...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.80%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.46%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.89%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 105-05 (0-03)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 106-29 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 107-26 (0-00)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0.64%
|
Refinance Index -0.52%
|
Purchase Index 2.28%

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