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MBS Week Ahead: After Last Week's Defensive Stand, What's...

MBS RECAP: Big Victory This Week (In Response To Last Week's...

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Not Threatened By Stimulus; Consolidation...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Playing it Extra Safe Ahead of Biden's Stimulus...

MBS Day Ahead: Waiting On Stimulus Details, Shrugging Off Early...

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Improvements in Forbearance Continue to Slow

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MBS RECAP: Crazy Day For Bonds. Is The Worst Over?

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by Matthew Graham on January 06 2021, 4:49 PM

Crazy Day For Bonds. Is The Worst Over? For 2 straight months, and especially over the past few weeks, we've been calling out the Georgia senate election as the biggest ticket market mover for bonds. It proved its importance today as 10yr yields broke...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Reeling on GA Election Results. Game Over?

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by Matthew Graham on January 06 2021, 9:35 AM

For 2 straight months, and especially over the past few weeks, we've been calling out the Georgia senate election as the biggest ticket market mover for bonds--the one thing that stood the best chance to force 10yr yields to break out of their 0.9...
MBS RECAP: Tomorrow Could Be a Very Big Day For Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on January 05 2021, 3:53 PM

Tomorrow Could Be a Very Big Day For Bonds Bonds experienced a bit of weakness today, but 10yr yields bounced almost perfectly at the range ceiling of .96%. That means they made it all the way from November through today in essentially the same narrow...
MBS Day Ahead: Georgia Senate Vote is Today, But Not The Market Reaction

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by Matthew Graham on January 05 2021, 9:13 AM

Forget the economy. Forget covid. Forget Fed policy. Those things will all be back to move the bond market fairly soon, but first, there will be an adjustment in response to the outcome of today's Georgia senate elections. Polls are open now and will...
MBS RECAP: Markets Back in Action, Hurrying Up and Waiting

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by Matthew Graham on January 04 2021, 4:17 PM

Markets Back in Action, Hurrying Up and Waiting Bonds were back in action today although you'd hardly know it based on the narrow trading range. Stocks were much more willing to put on a show with S&P futures down 1.5% by the close. Bonds gleaned...
MBS Week Ahead: This Week Could See The Biggest Momentum Shift in Months

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by Matthew Graham on January 04 2021, 9:14 AM

The presidential election happened 2 months ago and since then, bonds really haven't moved other than in response to the Pfizer vaccine news on Nov 9th and stimulus news on Dec 1st. Both of those sell-offs took 10yr yields to similar ceilings. Both...
MBS RECAP: Token Gains, Light Volume, Early Close

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by Matthew Graham on December 31 2020, 1:55 PM

Token Gains, Light Volume, Early Close Bond market focus remains on the Georgia senate run-off election day on January 5th. Today was a non-event... a place holder in the grand scheme. Any movement today was bound to be incidental. As it happened, that...
MBS Day Ahead: Early Close and Bigger Fish to Fry Next Week

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by Matthew Graham on December 31 2020, 9:24 AM

With Europe and Japan out on holiday, bonds had the lightest overnight session of the year today, and domestic hours won't be much better apart from a flurry of compulsory month-end volume heading into the early (2pm ET) close. Even if we see some...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Sticking to Year-End Script

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by Matthew Graham on December 30 2020, 2:43 PM

Bonds Sticking to Year-End Script Bonds did a perfect job sticking to their year-end script today. It reads: "ZZZzzz..." MBS made some token gains during the AM hours, but not to such an extent that we should feel compelled to investigate. Treasuries...
MBS Day Ahead: Last Econ Data of The Year and More Political Uncertainty

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by Matthew Graham on December 30 2020, 8:57 AM

Election years always bring increased uncertainty to financial markets--some more than others. This is definitely one of those years--not because of covid, but rather because full control of lawmaking by a single political party hangs in the balance....
MBS RECAP: Bonds on Cruise Control Unless Senate Approves Stimulus Upgrade

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by Matthew Graham on December 29 2020, 3:52 PM

Bonds on Cruise Control Unless Senate Approves Stimulus Upgrade Barring an unexpected vote (and passage) of the $2k stimulus upgrade, bonds are on cruise control heading into the end of the day/week/year. Even then, the Georgia senate race is a bigger...
MBS Day Ahead: Upsized Stimulus Still a Risk For Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on December 29 2020, 9:39 AM

With Trump signing the covid relief and government funding bill last week, the bond market had seemingly moved past its downside risks as they related to stimulus. But just when you thought we were out of the woods, there's more stimulus to consider...
MBS RECAP: Uneventful Day Despite Covid Relief Bill

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by Matthew Graham on December 28 2020, 4:00 PM

Uneventful Day Despite Covid Relief Bill The big news at the end of last week was Trump's decision to veto the covid relief/spending bill. After he signed it last night, overnight markets began pointing toward higher rates. 10yr yields were roughly...
MBS Day Ahead: Vetoed Veto Sets Weaker Tone For Another 3.5-Day Week

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by Matthew Graham on December 28 2020, 8:50 AM

The big news at the end of last week was Trump's decision to veto the defense bill (which, in turn, meant a veto of the broader stimulus/spending bill). That meant Congress would have the chance to make adjustments or override the veto today, but...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Wearing Holiday Clothes Despite Trump Veto and Brexit

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by Matthew Graham on December 24 2020, 12:51 PM

Bonds Wearing Holiday Clothes Despite Trump Veto and Brexit Along with the Friday after Thanksgiving, Christmas Eve is typically the lightest trading day of the year. Today was no exception with both volume and volatility at a minimum. MBS mostly held...

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Improvements in Forbearance Continue to Slow

A decline in the number of forborne loans in those portfolios serviced for banks and private label securities (PLS) accounted for most of the modest downturn...
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Playing it Extra Safe Ahead of Biden's...

Bonds Playing it Extra Safe Ahead of Biden's Stimulus Details As we discussed yesterday, the strong mid-week rally suggested a good amount of short...
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MBS RECAP: Important Victory For Bonds, and Another...

Important Victory For Bonds, and Another Battle Ahead Rates rallied today. Despite a positive reaction to a strong 30yr bond auction, it looks like traders...
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Mortgage Rates Find Some Support After an Ugly Start

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Much-Anticipated Correction Finally Arrives. Now What? This morning's alert noted a scary scenario playing out in bonds due to a confluence of big...
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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 2.87%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.38%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.33%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-18 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 110-16 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 111-17 (0-07)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 1.06%
|
Refinance Index 1.40%
|
Purchase Index 1.81%

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