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MBS RECAP: Brexit Bond Benefits Are Apparently Eternal

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Waving Long Goodbye to Trend, Hoping For...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Make Good on Threats of Weakness

MBS Day Ahead: Without Help, Bonds Face Uphill Battle

MBS RECAP: Bonds Skittish After Stocks Find Bottom

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GDP Growth Called "Transitory" While Low Inflation...

Is the Trade Dispute Dampening Home Purchase Activity?

Mortgage Rates Bounce Back

Home Sales Stall; Sellers Need to be Realistic

Fueled by Low Rates, Prepayment Rate Continues to Rise

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Is Trade Hurting Housing? Transitory Growth and Permanently Low Inflation?

Published: 5/22/2019

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MBS Week Ahead: Data Returns While Trade Drama Backdrop Persists

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by Matthew Graham on May 13 2019, 9:56 AM

In the week just past, markets were slavishly tuned-in to headlines and developments surrounding US/China trade relations . This generally resulted in bond gains and stock losses. The week, as a whole, represented an unexpected break from the trend of...
MBS RECAP: Hoodwinked by Trade War Panic, Markets Get Back to Business

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by Matthew Graham on May 10 2019, 5:46 PM

Trade-related headlines continued to be all the market cared about for one final day this week. They went both ways, but by the end, it was clear we'd been hoodwinked into paying too much attention to a process that is destined to be ongoing and nuanced...
MBS Day Ahead: Consumer Prices and Trade War Risks

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by Matthew Graham on May 10 2019, 8:31 AM

In the day just past, markets continued to gyrate on trade war headlines more than anything. The overnight session saw some bond buying on tough talk from Trump at a campaign rally while the daytime session saw bonds reverse course on news that Trump...
MBS RECAP: Things Get More Serious For Bonds Tomorrow

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by Matthew Graham on May 09 2019, 4:44 PM

It's been an interesting week so far with trade war developments taking bonds in an unexpected direction unexpectedly quickly and MBS underperforming the rally more than we'd like to see. Trade war headlines have provided a nearly constant supply...
MBS Day Ahead: One Day Closer to Another Trade War Escalation

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by Matthew Graham on May 09 2019, 9:13 AM

In the day just past, bond markets put in their first losing session after 3 straight business days moving in a friendlier direction. Chalk that up to a dearth of new and threatening trade-related headlines, which seem to be this week's preeminent...
MBS RECAP: One-Two Punch From Trade War Bounce and Treasury Auction

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by Matthew Graham on May 08 2019, 5:24 PM

First thing in the morning, it looked like we had a chance to see another trade-war-driven bond rally. A Reuters story that detailed the US/China communication breakdown hit the market around 4:30am, causing both stocks and bond yields to move quickly...
MBS Day Ahead: Trade Wars, 10yr Auction, and Sticky MBS Prices

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by Matthew Graham on May 08 2019, 9:07 AM

In the day just passed, bonds continued to rally as more details about recent trade war drama unfolded. Actually, those details unfolded late Monday and were simply traded yesterday morning. Notably absent from the rally was the MBS market (for the most...
MBS RECAP: Another Day With Trade War in Focus

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by Matthew Graham on May 07 2019, 6:15 PM

For the second straight day, US/China trade relation uncertainty dominated financial markets. Volume was up across the board with Treasury yields and stock prices (S&P futures, intraday) dropping to the lowest levels in more than a month . Stocks...
MBS Day Ahead: Calendar Still Sparse as Trade Remains in Focus

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by Matthew Graham on May 07 2019, 8:53 AM

In the day just past, a weekend Trump tweet announcing increased tariffs on China sent bond yields and stock prices much lower. Both bounced back throughout the the day, but stocks bounced much more than bonds. Right at the close, more trade-related headlines...
MBS RECAP: Token Rally on Trade Fears

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by Matthew Graham on May 06 2019, 5:13 PM

Today represented a classic example of the old market adage "buy the rumor, sell the news." It also offered two different takes on that strategy from the stock and bond markets. Ultimately, there was a twist by the end of the day. First off...
MBS Week Ahead: Sparse Data, Treasury Auctions, and Trade Tensions

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by Matthew Graham on May 06 2019, 8:59 AM

The week begins with bonds trading in much stronger territory thanks to a surprise US/China trade announcement from Trump over the weekend. This changes the tone for bonds heading into the week. Whereas it looked like yields may have been running into...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Scratch Out Modest Gains as Traders Book Profits

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by Matthew Graham on May 03 2019, 5:28 PM

Bond traders can book profits on bond purchases by selling, or on bond sales by buying. Today was characterized by the latter. Logically, traders bet on higher rates on Wednesday afternoon and again on Thursday morning as Powell delivered a far less friendly...
MBS Day Ahead: NFP and ISM Round Out Big Week of Data

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by Matthew Graham on May 03 2019, 8:22 AM

In the day just past, bonds sold off due to what appears to be market dissatisfaction with a hawkish message from the Fed. This largely came courtesy of Powell's press conference on Wednesday, but cues may also have been gleaned by the fact that one...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Hit Top of Recent Range Ahead of Jobs Report

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by Matthew Graham on May 02 2019, 5:38 PM

Treasuries weakened today as traders continued to price out a friendly Fed. This wasn't necessarily destined to be the case after yesterday's Fed Announcement. That, in and of itself, wasn't too threatening to bonds. In fact, bot stocks and...
MBS Day Ahead: There's Something About 2.50%

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by Matthew Graham on May 02 2019, 10:31 AM

2.50% has been more than just a reasonably round number marking the midpoint between 2.0% and 3.0% as far as 10yr Treasury yields are concerned. Actually, I take that back. That's exactly what it is, and that's exactly why it's been important...

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More From MND

MND NewsWire

Is the Trade Dispute Dampening Home Purchase Activity...

Refinancing rose to the surface yet again, driving the gain in mortgage applications during the week ended May 17. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA...
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Make Good on Threats of Weakness

Bonds have been threatening to end their pleasantly surprising stint of gains over the past few weeks on each of the past 4 business days. Yesterday's...
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Mortgage Rates Bounce Back

Mortgage rates had a fairly decent day yesterday as far as most lenders are concerned. A few lenders saw fit to bump rates up in the afternoon following...
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Home Sales Stall; Sellers Need to be Realistic

This one might smart a bit. There were big hopes for home sales in April, with interest rates continuing at unexpectedly low levels, unemployment at a...
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Fueled by Low Rates, Prepayment Rate Continues to Rise...

With interest rates remaining at 2019 lows and spring market home sales kicking in, the rate of prepayments continues to rise. Black Knight, in its "first...
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MBS Day Ahead: Without Help, Bonds Face Uphill Battle...

In the day just past, bonds weakened moderately amid the lightest volume in more than 3 weeks and a relative absence of market moving data/events. The...
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Budgeting, Comp Products; Sales, Government Investigation...

What’s the banter, and in the unverified rumor mill, at the MBA’s Secondary Conference? Fannie, Freddie, and FHA are all concerned about being...
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Skittish After Stocks Find Bottom

Both stocks and bonds have been edging back into less panicked territory after trade war drama fizzled out last week. In other words, stock prices and...
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Mortgage Rates Mostly Hold Near Lows, But Things Could...

Mortgage rates moved microscopically higher today, depending on the lender. In terms of underlying movement in the bond market, however, rates should have...
MND NewsWire

New Data Prompts Freddie Mac to Upgrade Their Forecast

Freddie Mac's May Forecast continues to look for a downward trending interest on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. The company's economists are project...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Holiday-Shortened Trading Week Promises...

In the week just past, bonds managed to extend the already unexpected gains that began on May 6th following a sharp escalation in US/China trade war rhetoric...
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Training, Reno, Appraisal Products; Compliance Warning;...

Tony H. sent, “A conference is a gathering of people who singly can do nothing, but together can decide that nothing can be done.” Not at this...
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Start Strong but Fade to 'unchanged'...

Bonds began the overnight session in unchanged territory but began to improve on various news reports that fueled a global flight-to-safety. These included...
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Mortgage Rates End Week Near Long-Term Lows

Wednesday was the best day this week for Mortgage rates with the average lender at the lowest levels in more than a month and very close to the lowest...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Limited Data; Trade Headlines Still...

In the day just past, bonds enjoyed a break in trade-related headlines, an absence of new Italy/EU drama, and a reasonably informative set of economic...
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Broker, Underwriting, MSR Products; Bank, Lender, and...

A capital markets friend relayed this note recently received from an LO. “When do you think stated pick-a-pay products will come back? I have some...
MND NewsWire

Low Rates Stabilize Refinancing Share of Originations

Refinancing held on to a 35 percent share of mortgage originations in April according to the Origination Insight Report from Ellie Mae as the 30-year note...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Logical Losses Leave Bonds in Still-Decent...

Bonds finally moved in a less friendly direction today after 3 solid days of gains. The losses were logical, though, considering an absence of geopolitical...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Ebb Higher, But Only Slightly

Mortgage rates hit the lowest levels in more than a month yesterday and came very close to the lowest levels in more than a year. Things changed today...
MND NewsWire

MBA Betting on New Home Sales Surge

Applications for new home purchases jumped 15.6 percent in April compared to a year ago and were 3.0 percent higher than in March. The Mortgage Bankers...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.19%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.93%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.13%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 104-06 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 105-15 (0-00)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 106-23 (0-03)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.47%
|
Refinance Index -2.02%
|
Purchase Index -2.63%

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