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MBS RECAP: Volatility Inside a Range; Still Waiting For "Something"

MBS Day Ahead: Unfriendly Trends in Stocks and Bonds, But For...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Pull Out Come-From-Behind Victory Thanks to...

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Fight to Hold Under Important Ceiling Amid...

MBS RECAP: One of Three Things is Going on With Bonds

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Sales Products and Webinars; Freedom Joins FHA/VA Pricing Competition

Prolonged Shutdown Could be Trouble for Housing

Mortgage Applications Settle Back into Winter Norms

Mortgage Rates Dodging Some Risk For Now

Big Changes at Fannie/Freddie, Is Conservatorship Nearing an...

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Shutdown Underwriting Shift; Existing Sales Resume Slide; Conservatorship Nearing an End?

Published: 1/22/2019

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MBS Day Ahead: Does Inflation Still Matter?

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by Matthew Graham on January 11 2019, 10:11 AM

Today's Consumer Price Index was one of the week's only " important " pieces of economic data. Or perhaps we should say it was one of the week's only 'big-ticket' reports in the sense that it has been one of the bigger market...
MBS RECAP: Bonds End Weaker as Stocks Threaten a Breakout

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by Matthew Graham on January 10 2019, 5:28 PM

It's hard to fault the bond market for any trading over the past several days. The data and the movement in other markets have both suggested bond market weakness fairly clearly. Despite that, the weakness has been reasonably well contained. For example...
MBS Day Ahead: We're Back to Watching Stocks in 2019 (For Now)

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by Matthew Graham on January 10 2019, 10:15 AM

The massive stock selling in Q3 2018 was clearly a big deal for bonds. As soon as the first wave of selling hit in stocks, bonds engaged what we refer to as "the stock lever"--shorthand for the quintessential (and often mistaken) belief that...
MBS RECAP: Too Soon to Assume, But Not to Hope

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by Matthew Graham on January 09 2019, 6:55 PM

The notion of "hope" comes up quite a bit in my daily recap pieces--often because something bad is happening and we hope for it to end or because something good is happening and we hope it can continue. In today's case, it's both. Something...
MBS Day Ahead: Afternoon Events Could Set The Tone

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by Matthew Graham on January 09 2019, 9:26 AM

While there are no significant scheduled events in play this morning, the afternoon hours bring the 10yr Treasury auction and the " minutes " from the most recent Fed meeting. These will provide a more detailed account of the conversation that...
MBS RECAP: Early 2019 Bond Market Correction Threat Remains

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by Matthew Graham on January 08 2019, 4:36 PM

For several weeks heading into the December Fed announcement, we discussed the impressive Nov/Dec bond market rally and the fact that the Fed would likely have the last say about market momentum until the jobs report at the beginning of January. Whether...
MBS Day Ahead: Take This Shift Seriously

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by Matthew Graham on January 08 2019, 9:28 AM

In some nearby parallel dimension, the letter "f" is option in today's title. We'll have to remember this little trick the next time bonds bounce so we can refer to it as a "bull shift," but I digress. The thesis is that there's...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Start Strong But End Weak

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by Matthew Graham on January 07 2019, 5:32 PM

Bonds had a chance to make the big potential correction of early 2019 a 1-day affair. That would refer, of course, to last Friday's bond market weakness that followed an exceptionally strong jobs report and a market-friendly speech from Fed-Chair...
MBS Week Ahead: A Few Levels To Watch As Bonds Try To Hold Recent Gains

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by Matthew Graham on January 07 2019, 9:52 AM

Will rates be able to remain in the comparatively great territory they entered last week, or does Friday's post-NFP sell-off mean we should be fearful of a big retracement back toward levels from earlier in Dec or worse? Neither I, nor anyone else...
MBS RECAP: Jobs and Powell Douse Rate Rally

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by Matthew Graham on January 04 2019, 5:16 PM

Yesterday's recap headline spoke of bonds being on fire in a good way. Apparently word got out . Several party poopers arrived with buckets of water today. The first of these buzzkills didn't get much mainstream press but was arguably armed with...
MBS Day Ahead: Huge Jobs Report Guarantees One of Two Clear Messages For Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on January 04 2019, 9:19 AM

It's no secret that the bond market has been on a tear for more than a month. 10yr Treasury yields dropped more than 30 basis points (0.30%) in December alone and quickly added to those gain on the first two trading days of January, dropping another...
MBS RECAP: Bonds on Fire (In a Good Way)

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by Matthew Graham on January 03 2019, 5:08 PM

Bonds hit their best levels in nearly a year today, depending on the security in question. MBS are lagging behind Treasuries for reasons discussed in the Day Ahead post (which you should save and refer to if you've been curious about MBS vs Treasury...
MBS Day Ahead: Just What The Heck is Going on With Mortgages vs Treasuries?

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by Matthew Graham on January 03 2019, 9:53 AM

Bonds started the new year off on a strong note yesterday, rallying to the best levels since ____. That blank would be filled in with a distinctly different month depending on who you choose as your bond market spokesman. If you choose "10yr Treasuries...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Start New Year Strong

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by Matthew Graham on January 02 2019, 5:55 PM

Monday's half-day brought 2018 to a strongly positive conclusion for bonds. Today's full session picked up where Monday left off and then some . By the end of the day (after the 3pm CME close) 10yr yields were more than 5bps lower at 2.633%. Fannie...
MBS Day Ahead: 2019 Starting Off Strong For Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on January 02 2019, 8:31 AM

Overnight market movement was kind to the US bond market, keeping some hope alive for a continuation of recent strength. Rather than an epic rebound in stocks, we've instead seen moderate losses so far this morning. Gains in European bonds did even...

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MND NewsWire

Prolonged Shutdown Could be Trouble for Housing

Fannie Mae does not expect a lasting impact from the current partial government shutdown, at least if it is over soon. In its January Economic Developments...
MND NewsWire

Mortgage Applications Settle Back into Winter Norms

Mortgage applications returned to more normal levels during the week ended January 18 after two rather post-holiday periods. Both purchasing and refinancing...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Pull Out Come-From-Behind Victory...

For those who pay any sort of attention to technicals or simply to "key levels" in the bond market, Friday was the gloomiest day we've had...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Dodging Some Risk For Now

Mortgage rates were higher heading into the end of the previous week. To make matters worse, as of Friday afternoon, it didn't look like the average lender...
MND NewsWire

Big Changes at Fannie/Freddie, Is Conservatorship Nearing...

MarketWatch is reporting that Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) along with Treasury and other parts of the administration are about to reveal a plan...
MND NewsWire

Rising Inventories Tempering Prices, Existing Home...

Existing home sales finished up the year on a decidedly sour note. After putting together consecutive increase in October and November and ending a six...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Fight to Hold Under Important...

After today's Existing Home Sales data (which is unaffected by the government shutdown because it's published by the National Association of Realtors...
MND NewsWire

Fannie/Freddie Changes Run the Gamut, Including Shutdown...

“Some people are so poor, all they have is money.” How about “26 of the World’s Richest Own the Same Wealth as Poorest Half”...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: One of Three Things is Going on With Bonds

Bond markets sold-off today in a slightly more alarming way than we've seen so far in 2019. This was accompanied by 11th straight trading session where...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Nominally Higher Despite Bond Market...

Mortgage rates rose gently today. Most mortgage borrowers (and many mortgage professionals, for that matter) wouldn't be aware of slightly more alarming...
MND NewsWire

Has RESPA's Servicer Rule Reduced Foreclosures...

In accordance with requirements of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) recently...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Break One Ceiling, But The Next...

Ever since bottoming out in early 2019, 10yr Treasury yields faced a pretty clear line in the sand from a technical standpoint. 2.82% stuck out like a...
Pipeline Press

Condo, Sales, and Business Intelligence Products; Freddie...

For the first time in history, the six biggest banks — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley...
MND NewsWire

New Home Sales Pull Back Amid Global Uncertainty

Applications for new home purchases dropped in December , falling 6.8 percent behind those a year earlier. The deficit from November was even larger, a...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Trade Headlines Provide Sneak Peak for Bond...

The Wall St Journal ran a story this afternoon suggesting Treasury Secretary Mnuchin was pushing for a compromise deal to ease Tariffs on China in order...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Holding Ground But Volatility Could...

Mortgage rates were technically steady today. In fact, as of this writing, most lenders are offering slightly better terms compared to yesterday, but only...
Pipeline Press

Subservicer, Non-Agency Products; World Debt Increasing;...

Time has a way of slipping by. For example, I’ve really been meaning to transfer a bunch of Lotus 1-2-3 and Quattro Pro spreadsheets I have off of...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: There Are Only So Many Ways To Say It...

Unless you've missed the past few days of commentary, you've heard me say something about the sideways uncertainty in markets as investors wait...
MND NewsWire

Will New FHFA Head Follow his Instincts or Bow to Reality...

"The most important question in housing policy heading into the new year has nothing to do with interest rates, housing supply, or home sales," Urban Institute...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Looking Reluctant to Make Bigger Moves...

Today would have been Retail Sales day were it not for the government shutdown. This also prevented Business Inventories from reporting (not an insignificant...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.63%
|
15 Yr FRM 4.19%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.40%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 103-10 (-0-03)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 104-23 (-0-03)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 105-21 (-0-09)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0.03%
|
Refinance Index -0.10%
|
Purchase Index 0.12%

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