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MBS RECAP: Heading Out Near Best Levels

MBS MID-DAY: Snowball Out of Steam; Budget Headline Potential

The Day Ahead: Slightly Busier Day, Sorting Real vs Temporary...

MBS RECAP: Further Improvement Amid Low Volume Backdrop

MBS MID-DAY: Holding Gains Amid Very Quiet Conditions

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Mortgage Rates Down to December Lows; Adverse Market Fee Gone for all but 4 States; G-Fee Hike

Published: 12/10/2013

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MBS Basics: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | The Gut Flop

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MBS RECAP: More Underperformance Turns Green Day Red

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December 03 2013, 4:05 PM

Fannie 4.0s have shed a few more ticks and are now down 2 on the day at 103-29. Fannie 3.5s are down 1 at 100-10. Both are the lowest levels of the day and both speak to the incrementally increased possibility of negative reprices. The losses still aren...
MBS MID-DAY: Morning Swoon and Bounce Back; Detroit Bankruptcy a Factor?

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December 03 2013, 11:05 AM

MBS and Treasuries both put in their best levels of the morning at 9am. They'd weakened moderately at first, but have been more serious about it in the past 10 minutes. Fannie 3.5s are far enough off from a few early lenders' rate sheet print...
The Day Ahead: Chance for Technical Support Ahead of Data Glut

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by Matthew Graham on December 03 2013, 7:36 AM

Yesterday - Bond markets began the session weaker in Asia, weaker still in Europe - MBS opened 8 ticks (.25) lower and traded sideways until 10am ISM data - After ISM, MBS lost another eighth quickly and another eighth slowly - Fannie 3.5s half a point...
MBS RECAP: December Begins Poorly for Bond Markets

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December 02 2013, 4:05 PM

Fannie 3.5s are now about half a point lower on the day at 100-12. 10yr yields are just now pushing into new highs, up 6bps at 2.8024. Lenders who released rate sheets before this morning's ISM data may be considering negative reprices....
MBS MID-DAY: Significant Losses Before and After ISM Data

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December 02 2013, 11:45 AM

- PMI 57.3 vs 55.0 forecast, 56.4 previously - Employment Index 56.5 vs 53.2 previously - PMI highest since April 2011 - Makret Reaction: MBS and Treasuries both move to weakest levels of the session, but haven't extended much beyond the previous...
The Week Ahead: Lots of Important Data, Including Employment Situation

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by Matthew Graham on December 02 2013, 7:55 AM

Last Week - Bond Markets built on previous week's post-FOMC bounce - Best levels seen around noon on Tuesday, weakness followed - Majority of weakness seen Wednesday after Economic data - Markets closed on Thursday, then a quiet, sideways half-day on...
MBS MID-DAY: Slightly Weaker but Well Within Wednesday's Range

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November 29 2013, 11:05 AM

Unsurprisingly, there is not a lot going on today for bond markets and MBS. The light volume means that anyone left trading now comprises a bigger piece of the overall market, thus making it easier to push prices around. That's resulted in losses...
The Day Ahead: Abbreviated Data-Free Session

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by Matthew Graham on November 29 2013, 1:26 AM

Wednesday - Stronger than expected Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI, and Sentiment all weighed on bond markets - Light volume and participation made it easier for prices to be pushed around - There was potential resistance regardless of data ( see charts here...
MBS RECAP: Weaker After Data; How Much Should you Blame the Holiday?

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November 27 2013, 4:05 PM

We've been stepping back from the edge for just over an hour now and have put enough distance between ourselves and the lows that it's probably safe to conclude the selling momentum has abated for today. Treasuries are being scooped up opportunistically...
MBS MID-DAY: Big, Nasty Sell-Off... Happy Holidays!

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November 27 2013, 12:05 PM

- Sentiment 75.1 vs 73.5 forecast - Current Conditions 88.0 vs 89.0 forecast - expectations 66.8 vs 66.2 forecast - 12-month outlook 79 vs 72 previously - Market Reaction: covered in previous alert. (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment rose in November...
The Day Ahead: Unofficial Month-End; Busiest Econ Calendar of the Week

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by Matthew Graham on November 26 2013, 8:53 PM

Yesterday - MBS continue to lag Treasuries, but closed higher than Monday - Building Permits data much stronger, but all due to Multi-Family - Case Shiller Home Prices beat forecast, but gains decelerate - Weak Consumer Confidence but decent employment...
MBS RECAP: Mortgage Markets in Holiday Stance

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November 26 2013, 4:05 PM

Just a quick heads-up. MBS are already bouncing back fairly well from the weakness mentioned in the last alert. Negative reprice risk is greatly mitigated if not altogether eliminated as we've added 3 ticks since then. Fannie 3.5s are back up to 101...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Hold Gains After Weaker Consumer Confidence

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November 26 2013, 11:05 AM

The batch of morning economic data hasn't caused too much of a stir for bond market. There was some weakness following the stronger Case-Shiller data at 9am, but more than an equal amount of strength since then. Some of that was already in the works...
The Day Ahead: Housing Starts Delayed; Focus is on Consumer Confidence, Auction

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by Matthew Graham on November 26 2013, 5:17 AM

Yesterday - Effects of holiday staffing levels already apparent in volume and liquidity - MBS underperform (chart below); volatile session; ends relatively unchanged - Pending Home Sales continued to struggle, but no major market reaction - No reaction...
MBS RECAP: Mortgages Underperform Amid Holiday Trading Conditions

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November 25 2013, 4:05 PM

One lender just repriced worse, and although it's not uncommon to see that lender reprice when no others are, it is a moderate risk with Fannie 3.5s having fallen another 2 ticks in the past 5 minutes--now down 4 on the day at 101-03. The weakness...

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