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MBS RECAP: Does Oil Matter to Rates?

MBS Day Ahead: It's Still a Correction Unless The Fed Says...

MBS Day Ahead: As 1.80% Gives Way in 10yr Yields, What Would...

MBS RECAP: Game Over? Maybe, Maybe Not...

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Get First Opportunity to Reverse Curse After...

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Broker Products; Vendor Developments; Rate Volatility Increase

Mortgage Rates' Week Goes From Bad to Worse

Tariffs are Creating a Perfect Storm for Builders

DPA, HELOC, Non-QM Products; Lender Flood News; What's Driving...

Worst Week For Mortgage Rates Since 2016

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Published: 9/16/2019

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MBS RECAP: Muted Bond Volatility Means More Love For MBS

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by Matthew Graham on September 04 2019, 8:23 PM

The past several days have been very good to the mortgage market. The secondary side of the market had been waiting for spreads to be able to tighten versus benchmarks. That's definitely happening. The primary side of the market had been waiting for...
MBS Day Ahead: MBS Tightening Underway; Range-Bound Treasuries

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by Matthew Graham on September 04 2019, 9:15 AM

In the day just passed, bonds rallied to start the overnight session, largely following Brexit-related trading in Europe. Yields rose moderately heading into the domestic session, but were quickly slammed down to multi-year lows by the incredibly weak...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Prove They'll Still React to Econ Data

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by Matthew Graham on September 03 2019, 5:31 PM

Today had potential to be one of those days where overnight give way to a frustrating sell-off that intensifies throughout the day. In fact, that wouldn't have been hard to imagine just before this morning's ISM Manufacturing data. Yields were...
MBS Week Ahead: Big Week of Domestic Data, But Will It Matter?

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by Matthew Graham on September 03 2019, 9:26 AM

In the week just passed, Treasuries put in their most stable and uninspiring performance of the month (in their defense, it was a crazy month). Every single day's highs and lows were contained inside the range set on the previous Friday. Despite that...
MBS Day Ahead: Clearly Defined Floor and Ceiling For Now

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by Matthew Graham on August 30 2019, 9:18 AM

In the day just passed, the Treasury complex came under pressure on several fronts. Trade related headlines sapped some of the safe haven demand, as did political progress in Italy. Europe continued to have an influence into domestic hours after an ECB...
MBS RECAP: Today Was a Victory for MBS. We'll Take It!

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by Matthew Graham on August 29 2019, 4:57 PM

Bonds were weaker overnight in response to upbeat trade headlines from China's commerce minister as well as Italian political news (read the MBS Live update ). The morning's economic data passed without a trace, not that we would expect too much...
MBS Day Ahead: "Fun" With Chart Scaling: MBS vs Treasuries

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by Matthew Graham on August 29 2019, 9:37 AM

Yesterday was one of the most boring trading sessions in recent memory. There were no meaningful market movers to discuss for the Treasury complex. And the only potential market movers proved to be almost meaningless. These included a tariff headline...
MBS RECAP: MBS Prove They At Least Remember How to Outperform

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2019, 7:07 PM

Not many moving part to today's trading session... Bonds were modestly stronger overnight, mostly in order to keep some semblance of pace with better gains in Europe. The start of the NYSE session brought an asset allocation trade out of bonds and...
MBS Day Ahead: Is The Rally Losing Steam?

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2019, 9:18 AM

In the day just passed, traders focused on the yield curve--an opaque term that officially refers to the entire curve of bond yields versus bond duration, but that everyone unofficially agrees to be a reference to the 2yr vs 10yr spread unless otherwise...
MBS RECAP: Curve Inversion was The Story Behind The Story

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2019, 6:58 PM

Bonds drifted into slightly stronger territory in the overnight session. The move was seemingly devoid of inspiration and had a very technical, mechanical look to it. If there was underlying inspiration, it was the movement in the yield curve (the gap...
MBS Day Ahead: Another Chance to Watch MBS Suffer

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2019, 9:05 AM

In the day just passed, bonds jumped out to an early lead in the overnight session on another incremental installment of trade war brinksmanship. China hiked tariffs on $75 bln of US imports and Trump fired back with a 5% bump to tariffs on $300 bln in...
MBS RECAP: MBS Are Getting Destroyed Relative to Treasuries

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by Matthew Graham on August 26 2019, 5:09 PM

It's a real bloodbath out there in the secondary mortgage market right now. The spread between MBS yields and Treasuries has quickly gone from surprisingly decent the worst it's been in more than 7 years. The last time MBS were performing this...
MBS Day Ahead: From Consolidation to "Something Else"

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by Matthew Graham on August 26 2019, 9:06 AM

In the week just passed, the bond market set out to digest and react to the Federal Reserve only to end up finding much bigger inspiration. Wednesday's FOMC Minutes were never too incredibly likely to inspire much volatility, and they stayed true...
MBS RECAP: Trump Trade Tweets Topple Treasuries and Invoke Tennyson

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by Matthew Graham on August 23 2019, 6:09 PM

I was going to leave Tennyson out of the headline and bask in the alliterative glory of an unprecedented 5T title, but I figured you should know there's something wacky and interesting here in case you're into that sort of thing. If you're...
MBS Day Ahead: Jackson Hole Day - Here's What That Means

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by Matthew Graham on August 23 2019, 9:14 AM

In the day just passed, bond markets weakened in the overnight session and then held mostly steady during the domestic hours. The most notable attempt to change that was seen after the exceptionally weak Markit PMI data which showed the weakest manufacturing...

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MND NewsWire

Tariffs are Creating a Perfect Storm for Builders

The California Building Industry Association (CBIA) is calling the Trump Administration tariffs the "perfect storm" for the state's already troubled housing...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: As 1.80% Gives Way in 10yr Yields, What...

In the day just passed, bonds got our hopes up early with an initially positive reaction to the ECB announcement. We were even in the green for most of...
Pipeline Press

DPA, HELOC, Non-QM Products; Lender Flood News; What's...

Any month that starts on a Sunday contains a Friday the 13th. The superstitious sufferers of “triskaidekaphobia” try to avoid bad luck by keeping...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Game Over? Maybe, Maybe Not...

10yr yields hit 1.80% today. Using the power of the MBS Live search feature, I compiled the following list to put 1.80% in context: "I'd be looking...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Worst Week For Mortgage Rates Since 2016

Mortgage rates didn't have a great day today, moving even higher from what were already the worst levels in a month as of yesterday afternoon. In and of...
MND NewsWire

Are Lenders Anticipating a Slowdown? Available Credit...

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says its Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) suffered its largest decline in eight months in August. The Index...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Get First Opportunity to Reverse...

In the day just passed, the recent bond market selling-spree showed its first serious signs of leveling off since it began one week ago. This wasn't...
Pipeline Press

Capital Markets Products; Training and Events, Some...

I apologize in advance for the length of today’s commentary, but there’s a lot going on! Ask any economist if rent control works, and they’ll...
MND NewsWire

Fraud Risk Decreases on a Wave of Refi Activity

Mortgage application fraud declined in the second quarter of this year. CoreLogic's report on the incidence says that one out of every 123 mortgage applications...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bond Correction Takes The Day Off

Bond traders took a break from their newfound hobby of the past 5 business days: relentlessly selling bonds . Maybe they want to branch out and try new...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Steady at Recent Highs

Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged today for the average lender as underlying bond markets finally calmed down. Over the past few days, bond yields...
MND NewsWire

Lenders See Demand and Profits Expanding, While Credit...

Mortgage lenders reflected a lot of optimism about their business prospects in the third quarter Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey conducted by Fannie Mae...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Be Very Skeptical of Rate Forecasts...

In the day just passed, bonds kicked into higher gear with respect to the correction that began to materialize last Thursday. If you feel like you missed...
Pipeline Press

Non-QM, Branding, Correspondent Products; Origination...

Is our housing system a dumpster fire ?” (I don’t think so; we have hundreds of thousands helping millions every year although F&F would...
MND NewsWire

Mortgage Apps Found Gains in a Holiday-Shortened Week

Although the week ended September 7 was shortened by the Labor Day holiday, mortgage application volume managed an increase. It was the first week-over...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Have You Heard The One About The Bond Market...

Bonds continued to sell-off again today--this time slightly more aggressively than yesterday. Yes, the current spike in yields/rates is frustrating, but...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Highest in More Than a Month

Mortgage rates and the broader bond market are both in the midst of a correction after hitting the best levels in more than 3 years last week. This is...
MND NewsWire

Some States Showing Signs of Stress, Delinquencies...

While it doesn't appear to be of "canary in the coalmine" magnitude, CoreLogic notes that there were annual increases in the delinquency rates of eight...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Keeping an Eye on Corrective Trend as...

In the day just passed, bonds began the week with a resolute sell-off that broke through an important overhead ceiling in 10yr yields (1.62). Weakness...
Pipeline Press

Warehouse, Broker Products; Current Economic Picture

The gap between the haves and have-nots continues to widen. Though the wealth of U.S. households has eclipsed $100 trillion, the wealthy have primarily...

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