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MBS Morning: New Week, New Opportunities (And New Risks)

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by Matthew Graham on October 12 2021, 9:26 AM

Last week was unpleasant for the bond market. Yields tested and then broke above the technical ceiling at 1.56%, ultimately making it as high as 1.62% before leveling off into the 3-day weekend. The new week brings new risks and new opportunities as bonds...
MBS RECAP: What's Up With Super Weak NFP Tanking The Bond Market?!

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by Matthew Graham on October 08 2021, 4:01 PM

What's Up With Super Weak NFP Tanking The Bond Market?! Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) were much weaker than expected (194k vs 500k f'cast). At almost any other moment in history, this would be grounds for sharp bond rally. Indeed, it looked like we...
MBS Morning: Breaking Out in a Bad Way After NFP

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by Matthew Graham on October 08 2021, 11:07 AM

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) were much weaker than expected (194k vs 500k f'cast), but that had almost no impact on the bond market in the first hour of trading. This could be due to the mixed results beyond the NFP headline (e.g. 4.8% vs 5.1% f'cast...
MBS RECAP: Highest Yields in Months. Could Jobs Report Make it Worse?

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by Matthew Graham on October 07 2021, 3:29 PM

Highest Yields in Months. Could Jobs Report Make it Worse? After a somewhat hopeful bounce in yesterday's trading session, and a decent overnight session, Thursday ended up being a bad day. With the jobs report on deck tomorrow, could things get even...
MBS Morning: Pushing Weaker Boundaries Ahead of NFP Day

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by Matthew Graham on October 07 2021, 9:57 AM

It remains to be seen what impact tomorrow's jobs report might have given that it would take an atrociously weak number to derail the Fed's November tapering aspirations and an atrociously huge number to accelerate them (would require an intermeeting...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Vote To Hold The Range Despite Stronger Data

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by Matthew Graham on October 06 2021, 4:26 PM

Bonds Vote To Hold The Range Despite Stronger Data 10yr yields tested multi-month highs overnight (1.573), but improved gradually leading up to the domestic session. Bond bulls held their breath at 8:15am ET when ADP employment data came out stronger...
MBS Morning: Have Yields Risen Enough to Bring in The Buyers?

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by Matthew Graham on October 06 2021, 9:36 AM

1.573% on a 10yr US Treasury Note?! While this still isn't the place a yield-seeking investor would park their money (inflation-adjusted returns at a balmy -0.90%), it is the highest we've been since June--perhaps high enough to bring in some...
MBS RECAP: Rates Move Back Toward Recent Highs.

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by Matthew Graham on October 05 2021, 4:35 PM

Rates Move Back Toward Recent Highs. Bonds started the day only modestly higher after a fairly uneventful overnight session. Sellers surfaced even before the stronger ISM Services data, but they were out in full force afterward. Yields peaked less than...
MBS Morning: Stronger Data Confirming Higher Rate Range

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by Matthew Graham on October 05 2021, 11:28 AM

Modest weakness on Monday meant the door was still open for bonds to challenge the lower boundary of the higher rate range seen last week. Today's trading is quickly changing the narrative. What began as nagging weakness in the overnight session has...
MBS RECAP: Could be Better. Could be Worse

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by Matthew Graham on October 04 2021, 4:16 PM

Could be Better. Could be Worse Bonds ended last week on a strong note with yields challenging the lowest levels of the recently higher range. With no definitive breakout, we were forced to wait for the current week to see if the good times could keep...
MBS Morning: Weak Start to a Big Week

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by Matthew Graham on October 04 2021, 9:57 AM

Bonds managed to consolidate by the end of last week after yields surged to the highest levels since June. They're now faced with the choice to acquiesce to the new, higher range or push back toward the previous range. At the risk of stating the obvious...
MBS RECAP: Modestly Strong, Uneventful Trading Day, Version 3

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by Matthew Graham on October 01 2021, 4:43 PM

Modestly Strong, Uneventful Trading Day, Version 3 Last week conditioned us for Drama. Monday and Tuesday suggested the ride wasn't yet over. Against that unpleasant backdrop, the last 3 days of the week have been completely unfamiliar--especially...
MBS Morning: New Month, New Quarter, New Range?

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by Matthew Graham on October 01 2021, 11:32 AM

Today is off to a relatively tame start with yields trading in the narrowest range of the week so far. It also marks the 3rd straight day of modest recovery and ground-holding following 4 straight days of heavy selling that began last Thursday. That selling...
MBS RECAP: Do Today's Gains Mean The Selling Spree is Over?

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2021, 4:11 PM

Do Today's Gains Mean The Selling Spree is Over? After some initial weakness brought 10yr yields back in line with yesterday's highs, bonds managed to calm down enough eke out a small victory by the 3pm close. This is a welcome change in light...
MBS Morning: Holding Ground is Both Good and Bad Right Now

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2021, 9:26 AM

In case you missed it, things have been bad for bonds since last Thursday. A combination of factors conspired to push yields higher at the fastest pace since the springtime surge credited to vaccines, plummeting case counts, and fiscal policy. Incidentally...

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