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MBS Day Ahead: Paradoxical Reaction Potential For Today's...

MBS RECAP: Despite Strong Data, Bonds Remain Focused on Fed

MBS Day Ahead: Here's The Wind-Up

MBS RECAP: Bonds Biding Time Until Wednesday

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Gearing Up For Unfriendly Fed

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MBS Day Ahead: How Did We End Up In This Mess?

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by Matthew Graham on September 14 2018, 8:32 AM

The question posed in the title is just a bit too big for us to cover in this humble "day ahead" post, but we can touch on a few key points. I just thought it was a good time to revisit it, given that 10yr yields are beginning the day once-again...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Refuse to Rally Big After CPI's Big Miss

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by Matthew Graham on September 13 2018, 4:53 PM

Bond markets were clearly interested in today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. It generated a larger single minute of volume than the minute following last Friday's NFP report (the one that caused bonds to tank due to the wage growth component...
MBS Day Ahead: Weekly Candlestick Chart is Actually Hopeful. Should You Trust It?

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by Matthew Graham on September 13 2018, 9:12 AM

Right off the bat, with respect to the headline, I'll let you know that the answer is going to be "it depends." More on that in a moment. Bonds are starting the day in stronger territory after a weaker CPI reading and a tame European Central...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Consolidate Despite Weak Data and Strong Auction

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by Matthew Graham on September 12 2018, 4:06 PM

Today brought two events that should theoretically have helped bonds: a much weaker producer level inflation reading (2.4 vs 2.7 forecast for core PPI) this morning, and a fairly strong 10yr Treasury auction in the afternoon. But neither had much of an...
MBS RECAP: Bond Market Preparing For The Worst

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by Matthew Graham on September 11 2018, 4:43 PM

With no intent of drawing any parallels to Hurricane Florence, bond markets are battening down their hatches in advance of a perfect storm of data and events. These include economic reports in the coming days (PPI, CPI, Retail Sales), a healthy dose of...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Not Afraid of More Weakness

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by Matthew Graham on September 11 2018, 9:18 AM

Overnight weakness in bonds sets us up to test some more serious boundaries today. As seen in the chart below (the same chart we've been watching for the last few weeks), yields have now risen to the bleeding edge of the consolidation range (upper...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Take Breather After Volatile Friday

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by Matthew Graham on September 10 2018, 4:45 PM

Perhaps traders were tired? Perhaps they are still on high alert but just haven't gotten to the week's more meaningful events yet? Either way, there was effectively no drama for bonds today. This is both good and bad. On a positive note, it was...
MBS Day Ahead: Another Storm to Weather as Bonds Face More Econ Data

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by Matthew Graham on September 10 2018, 10:58 AM

Bonds/rates are in the process of defending their castle. Their way of life inside those walls could be thought of as the general maintenance of a long-term ceiling near 3.0%. On several occasions, invaders have broken the outer perimeter and attempted...
MBS RECAP: Wage Growth Breakout Prompts Bond Yield Breakout

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by Matthew Graham on September 07 2018, 4:27 PM

Today's bond market wrap is as simple as the headline. Average hourly earnings or AHE is occasionally responsible for some impressive moves in bonds. Today was one of those days. Part of the problem was that there wasn't really any weakness in...
MBS Day Ahead: NFP Could Probably Be Forgiven For a Miss

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by Matthew Graham on September 07 2018, 8:33 AM

This morning's first chart is actually Private Payrolls (as opposed to nonfarm payrolls). Reason being: NFP accounts for Census Bureau hiring which creates massive, temporary spikes and drops in payroll counts every 10 years. Thus, if we look at long...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Boosted by EU Weakness Ahead of NFP

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by Matthew Graham on September 06 2018, 4:39 PM

Bonds were weaker in the overnight session, but only slightly. The onset of domestic trading saw a stronger contingent of traders lined up to buy bonds at the 8:20am CME open . The 8:15am ADP data was weaker. It may have helped a bit, but bonds were keen...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds at Least Have a Chance

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by Matthew Graham on September 06 2018, 10:24 AM

I've been pretty bearish on bonds, in general, since the end of 2016. Against that backdrop, we can of course still look for tactical opportunities, but there are also times to reinforce our defensive stance. The most recent bounce in rates/yields...
MBS RECAP: Burden of Proof Shifts to Bond Bulls

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by Matthew Graham on September 05 2018, 4:45 PM

The first two trading days of September introduce a somewhat serious threat to the calm, sideways range that dominated the past 3 weeks. Granted, the rate spike in late July introduced a similar threat to the similar sideways range and we lived to tell...
MBS Day Ahead: Light Data Gives Bonds Chance to Show Hand

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by Matthew Graham on September 05 2018, 8:54 AM

Some economic reports matter when it comes to bond market movement potential, and many don't. The tricky thing about econ data is that reports that HAVE had an impact in the past can easily get caught up in a newfound cycle of irrelevance. Take Jobless...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Under Pressure After Stronger Econ Data

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by Matthew Graham on September 04 2018, 4:42 PM

From a calendar standpoint, there were two notable features today. It was the first trading day in September--a month that often sees "something new" happen after bonds trudge through the summer doldrums. It was also notable due to the scheduled...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.87%
|
15 Yr FRM 4.32%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.40%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 102-31 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 104-28 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 106-11 (-0-02)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.60%
|
Refinance Index -3.69%
|
Purchase Index -1.98%

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