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MBS RECAP: More Stock Losses Bring More Bond Bounces

MBS Day Ahead: CPI Gets First At-Bat, Then Back to Stocks

MBS RECAP: Best Levels in More Than a Week Ahead of CPI

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Begin Week With Some Optimism

MBS RECAP: Bonds Overcome Producer Inflation But Not The Range

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Millennials Could be Foregoing Equity Wealth

Mortgage Applications: Refis at Lowest Levels Since 2000

Token Improvement For Mortgage Rates

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Published: 11/14/2018

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MBS RECAP: Straightforward, Rotten Day For Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on November 02 2018, 7:29 PM

Today, and indeed the week in general was fairly straightforward as far as bond markets were concerned. Today brought a fairly well anticipated jobs report. It came out quite a bit higher than expected. There were no noticeable downsides . And the increasingly...
MBS Day Ahead: Here Comes the Jobs Report

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by Matthew Graham on November 02 2018, 8:26 AM

This morning brings the often-important jobs report. Traditionally, the key component has been nonfarm payrolls (NFP), which is just a tally of new jobs created during the past month. NFP is especially important in times of transition (i.e. heading into...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Battle Back After a Ceiling Bounce

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by Matthew Graham on November 01 2018, 4:54 PM

Today ended up being somewhat triumphant for bonds. It didn't begin that way, however. Yields were higher overnight and moved up just a bit more in the first hour and a half of domestic trading. Early economic data was largely ignored. At 9:30am,...
MBS Day Ahead: 2 Ways Bonds Are Preparing For The Next Big Move

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by Matthew Graham on November 01 2018, 8:37 AM

Bonds have either trying to position themselves in a relatively defensive, pessimistic stance heading into upcoming key events, or their staging on the edge of some important technical levels and daring those events to push them into weaker territory...
MBS RECAP: No Love For Bonds at Month-End

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by Matthew Graham on October 31 2018, 4:13 PM

Bonds ended the day in weaker territory with 10yr yields rising roughly 3bps and Fannie 4.0 MBS losing nearly a quarter of a point. Much like yesterday, bonds lost most of their ground in the overnight session. Much like yesterday, an absence of drama...
MBS Day Ahead: This is Becoming a Scary Week For Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on October 31 2018, 9:18 AM

The title of this commentary is not a Halloween pun . I don't do Halloween puns anymore. No, there is some legitimate cause for concern--even a bit of fear--in the bond market movement seen so far this week. This movement wouldn't be much to look...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Slightly Less Interested in Stocks, For Better or Worse

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by Matthew Graham on October 30 2018, 4:04 PM

If there's a theme in the bond market over the past 2 days, it's that we've broken away from the previously fairly rigid correlation with stocks. That's not to say the correlation was helping bonds move at the same pace as stocks--simply...
MBS Day Ahead: Two Trends Suggest Risk of Resistance Bounce For Rates

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by Matthew Graham on October 30 2018, 8:45 AM

With bonds being flat to slightly weaker yesterday and now noticeably weaker overnight, we may be looking at our first real resistance bounce (aka "floor") in over a week. Such a bounce makes a case for two different trends that may be emerging...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Staying Thirsty For Stock Drama--Too Thirsty

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by Matthew Graham on October 29 2018, 5:00 PM

The bond market has seen one too many "stay thirsty" memes. For example, "I don't always rally for more than a few days in a rising rate environment, but when I do, it's because of massive stock losses." As we've discussed...
MBS Week Ahead: Who's Going to Blink First?

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by Matthew Graham on October 29 2018, 10:04 AM

Core global bond markets--led by German Bunds and US Treasuries--have been trending lower fairly reliably. For European bonds, that rally has occupied most of the month whereas the US version is only really a week old. The latter is also heavily reliant...
MBS RECAP: Not Complaining, But Wishing it Could be Something Else

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by Matthew Graham on October 26 2018, 5:42 PM

Interest rates that have generally been rising for a any period of time can catch a break for many reasons. Sometimes it's Italian political drama (not that this is common, but it was a big deal in May 2018), and other times, it's a old-fashioned...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Start Strong; GDP Coming Right Up

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by Matthew Graham on October 26 2018, 8:31 AM

Everything continues to be fairly unidimensional for bonds this week with the dimension in question being that of the equities market. In terms of relative movement, we can still say the bond rally is "reluctant" compared to what's going...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Mostly Hold Recent Gains Ahead of GDP

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by Matthew Graham on October 25 2018, 5:32 PM

The best way to look at today is as a more sober attempt to hold the lowest yields in more than 3 weeks . The only day that's ended any better for bonds during that time is yesterday--an arguably more emotional example of forced buying stemming from...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Fight to Maintain Recent Gains

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by Matthew Graham on October 25 2018, 9:07 AM

With slightly weaker levels overnight, the rest of the day becomes a fight to maintain the gains seen so far this week. The easiest and most basic observation about those gains is that they've come courtesy of much weaker stock prices. In that sense...
MBS RECAP: Bonds More Willing to Listen to Stocks' Sob Story

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by Matthew Graham on October 24 2018, 4:56 PM

Yesterday was ' neat ' for a while--at least in the morning hours when massive stock losses helped bonds achieve their best levels in weeks. Then stocks bounced in the afternoon and most of the bond market gains were erased. Today was a carbon...

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It's hard not to give the Fed a wide berth as the biggest potential market mover on any given Fed day. Today was a Fed day! We talked about the outside...
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Mortgage Rates Edge Back Up to Early 2011 Levels

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CoreLogic: Easing Standards for DTI, LTV Underwriting

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MBS Day Ahead: Fed Day, Bounce Day?

I'm going to talk about the potential for a friendly bounce in bonds today. I want to be clear right up front that I'm presenting this as one of...
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Abruptly Give Back Post-Election Gains

Those who expected the election to matter to bond markets got their way overnight. Those who expected elections to be inconsequential got their way by...
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Mortgage Rates Edge Lower, But Don't Get Used to...

Mortgage rates were slightly lower today. Unfortunately, that may not be the case by tomorrow morning. Underlying bond markets (which dictate rates) lost...
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Housing Sentiment Continues to Sour as Economy Booms

Despite the success of the U.S. economy as of late, housing sentiment seems to have hit a rough patch . Fannie Mae said its Home Purchase Sentiment Index...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 5.03%
|
15 Yr FRM 4.51%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.61%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 102-09 (0-05)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 104-07 (0-04)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 106-02 (0-08)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0.03%
|
Refinance Index -0.10%
|
Purchase Index 0.12%

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