Learn. Share. Connect. (52,314 Members)  - Join
 

Site Tools

Join Now or Sign In
for Full Access to All Features

Local Professionals
(Change Your Location)

Recent Polls

Do you expect the home buyer tax credit extension to contribute to a noticeable pick up in loan production?

Created By: Adam Quinones
  • Yes, I anticipate an increase in activity (26.9%)
  • Only a modest upturn in production (43.8%)
  • Nope. 2009 demand stole from 2010 demand (29.2%)

Federal Reserve MBS Purchase Program

MBS ALERT: FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT, Initial Reaction Bad

Posted
 Email Page (New!)   |     Print   |     Bookmark

  • FED SAYS EXTENDS PURCHASES OF LONG-TERM U.S. TREASURY DEBT TO END OF OCTOBER, KEEPS AMOUNT $300 BLN
  • TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PURCHASES OF AGENCY MBS AND AGENCY DEBT UNCHANGED
    KEEPS BENCHMARK RATE IN ZERO TO 0.25 PCT RANGE; RATES TO STAY VERY LOW FOR EXTENDED PERIOD
  • ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LEVELING OUT, FINANCIAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED FURTHER
  • PRICES OF ENERGY, COMMODITIES HAVE RISEN; BUT RESOURCE SLACK LIKELY TO DAMPEN COST PRESSURES
  • FED REPEATS WILL EMPLOY ALL AVAILABLE TOOLS TO PROMOTE ECONOMIC RECOVERY, PRESERVE PRICE STABILITY
  • HOUSEHOLD SPENDING SHOWS SIGNS OF STABILIZING, BUT REMAINS CONSTRAINED
  •  BUSINESSES CUTTING BACK ON INVESTMENT BUT ALIGNING INVENTORIES WITH SALES
  • ECONOMY LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK FOR A TIME BUT POLICY ACTIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL RECOVERY
  • MONITORING SIZE, COMPOSITION OF BALANCE SHEET, TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS WARRANTED
  • INFLATION TO REMAIN SUBDUED FOR SOME TIME
  • EXTENDING TRSY PURCHASES TO END OF OCTOBER TO PROMOTE SMOOTH TRANSITION IN MARKETS AS BUYS  END
  • VOTE ON POLICY ACTIONS WAS UNANIMOUS'

Initial Reaction has been a slight downtick taking us exactly in line with previous lows.  If your lender is jumpy and didn't already reprice for the worse, they MIGHT now, HOWEVER, the losses are already moderating in traditional post-FOMC volatility, so this is by no means an indication of the direction of the rest of the day.  Stay closely tuned as more volatility is likely, including a possible regression to the previous range of the day.

FOMC STATEMENT ANALYSIS

Data provided by Thomson Reuters
Secondary Marketing Managers and Capital Markets Desks, if you are interested in subscribing to the same fixed income and mortgage market data we use:CLICK HERE.

Comments

Join Now or Login to Post Comments

on
If you haven't noticed already, we're now ABOVE pre-FOMC levels.
on
Thanks for all the help fellas. After reading your previous entry and the initial reaction to FOMC, I decided to lock today at 5.5%. Just wasn't worth the risk anymore of rates rising within the next few weeks, but here is hoping they continue to go down for the rest of you!
on
that always happens Brad. I tell my clients when you lock it all but guarantees the rates are headed down, but if you don't then they go up. If you can live with the loan and feel good about it you made a great choice.
on
I am sorry but I have to vent out frustration right now. I feel like Wall St & the Fed is completely incompetent, yes the market does always correct itself but it spends 95% of the time being wrong. How can these people price assets as if the GDP will increase back to 2007 levels. The way that I see it is consumers are strapped right now and are focused on paying down all the debt they accumulated these past few years, not increasing demand for new purchases. Consumers are dealing with a dramatic destruction of their wealth and fear of job losses. This is evident in corporate earnings; yes profits beat expectations, but only because of cost cutting, not because of revenue increases. No company will sustain growth simply by cost cutting and no revenue growth. Secondly, the housing market is not rebounding, prices remain low and the only buyers out there now are bottom feeders. Decreasing home values will lead to more foreclosures as people walk away due to negative equity. In addition, lenders will soon face a huge wave of losses from the commercial real estate market as tenants default on rent payments to landlords and commercial space sits idle. Lastly, Real Unemployment is about 16% when you account for the people that left the job market cause there are no jobs & the Underemployed.
on
Thanks Peter. I am a little worried about rates going down, but as long as they don't go WAY down, like to 5%, I'll be happy that I made the right decision (although I secretly hope they go up, haha). My personal opinion though is that economy continues to rally until middle to end of september, and then comes down in October through the rest of the year. Like they say, I'd have been more unhappy with the rate at 5.625 than I will be now if they go to 5.375.
on
the only thing that anyone can REALLY count on right now is that it is goig to take TIME to figure out exactly what, where, and how all of this is going to play out. One thing you can count on for sure is that reality will only be told to the general public after it happens.
on
Brad Never wish ill will upon rates, never! Lock 'er up, move on. If they do go down, it'll help you on your next one! Easier said, I know Matthew, hear, hear! This 95% figure you use is correct IMO, and also explains why the 5% of the time it goes down often occurs so rapidly, and violently. Making up lost time. AQ has explained that we have merely returned to 'status quo', ie Sept. 08 levels, after the big correction, but what that misses is it implies that we are back to 'status quo' or something close to it, in the economy, ie a quick rebound off recession and back to normal trend growth. This was the prevailing sentiment about the economy, even thru summer of last year, pre-Sept. 08 and the selloff. That we'd have a relatively 'normal' recession, and presumably grow out at near-normal levels. Almost no one thinks that now, and there tremendous unknowns still out there - uncertainty typically is not good for the market particularly in its current massively overbought state
on
Nice MBS comeback. :)
on
SPOT ON MATTHEW!!! And I would like to add that CONSUMERS move this economy and that should be the target audience for any recovery efforts but it doesn't feel/look/play like that at the moment. Not more than 3 years ago, a consumer with earnings of $50,000.00 annual, could conceivably have a leverage dollar amount of $500,000.00 or more (that's real consumer power), in today's environment that's almost comical to conceive but that's what our economy runs on, SPENDING. Let me remind all that yesterday when all major indices lost over 1% it was mostly bank stocks that took the beating (down over 3.5%) Consumers are still facing major cutbacks to their leveraging power (credit card limits been cut, student loans drying up, max LTVs, restricted properties, etc.), unemployment still at historic highs, their biggest pocket of wealth been diminished (housing prices), restricted lending practices, increased savings rate (Americans are now at 7.5% in savings - an all time record) hence no real push to the economy from the consumer side and wage increase is almost non-existent compare to inflation/commodity prices due mostly to the weak dollar. Sorry Matt, guess I had a little venting to do too...