Last Wednesday brought the sharpest sell-off to the bond market in over a month.  Bonds continued to weaken on the next two relevant trading days (Mon/Tue of this week), but at a progressively less intense pace.  At the risk of jinxing it, this pattern suggests bonds may find some support soon.

To be clear, that support doesn't carry an implication that lasts more than a few days.  It's more like the bond market is showing signs that it is going to make an attempt to hold its ground somewhere near current levels.

20211117 open.png

There are no big market movers on tap in terms of scheduled econ data today, but there is a looming specter of Biden's Fed Chair announcement.  As far as anyone can tell, it's between Powell and existing Fed governor Lael Brainard.  In general, the bond market would prefer the more dovish Brainard.  This wouldn't be a huge, long-lasting market mover, but it is the sort of thing that could briefly accelerate a friendly bounce (Brainard) or reinvigorate the recent selling trend for another day or two (Powell). 

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
UMBS 2.5
102-08 : +0-03
10 YR
1.6301 : -0.0039
Pricing as of 11/17/21 9:40AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Nov 17
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 278.4
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 2841.0
8:30 House starts mm: change (%) Oct -1.6
8:30 Housing starts number mm (ml) Oct 1.576 1.555
8:30 Building permits: number (ml) Oct 1.638 1.586
8:30 Build permits: change mm (%) Oct -7.8
10:30 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) w/e 1.398 1.001