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MBS RECAP: MBS Outperform on Curve Steepening and Corporate Issuance
Nov 16 2021, 4:15PM

The yield curve has been almost exclusively in "flattening" mode since June, and aggressively so.  This means that longer term Treasuries (like 10s and 30s) have risen at a slower pace than 2yr and 5yr Treasuries.  But traders can't do the same old thing every day and today was one of those counter-trend days.  The steepening was far from extreme, but it was enough to help MBS do a bit better than 10yr notes. MBS also benefited from an active slate of corporate bond issuance (which weighed down the Treasury complex, relatively). 

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 11:30am, 1pm

  • Retail Sales 1.7 vs 1.4 f'cast

  • Retail Sales Excluding autos/gas 1.4 vs 0.5 previously

  • Import prices 1.2 vs 1.0 f'cast

  • Builder Confidence 83 vs 80 f'cast, 80 prev

Market Movement Recap
08:36 AM

Flat to slightly stronger overnight.  Brief weakness after Retail Sales data, but trying to find footing now.  10yr down .5bps at 1.613.  MBS unchanged at 102-05 (102.16).

10:00 AM

Weaker after the previous update.  Modest rally at the 9:30am NYSE open, and now back to unchanged levels in MBS.  10yr down only 0.3bps at 1.615.

12:08 PM

Yields unable to break below intraday floor, now back up to 1.627.  MBS down 1 tick (-0.03). 

03:03 PM

10yr yields up 1.6bps at 1.634.  MBS have been outperforming, currently unchanged at 102-06 (102.19).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.5
102-06 : +0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
1.6420 : +0.0210
Pricing as of 11/16/21 4:15PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:34AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Losing Ground After Retail Sales Data

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Nov 16
8:30 Export prices mm (%) Oct 1.5 0.9 0.1
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Oct 1.7 1.4 0.7
8:30 Import prices mm (%) Oct 1.2 1.0 0.4
9:15 Industrial Production (%) Oct +1.6 0.7 -1.3
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Nov 83 80 80
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Sep 0.7 0.7 0.6

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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