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MBS RECAP: Another Green Day, But Can We Trust It?
Oct 26 2021, 4:08PM

Bonds were briefly weaker mid-morning, but rallied back to close at slightly stronger levels. We've been defensive about the upward trend in rates for more than a month now and generally on the lookout for enough of a rally to let our guard down a bit.  With the past 3 business days seeing anywhere from modest to moderate improvements, is it time to conclude we've seen the worst of the recent drama?  In a word: no.  Bonds have a lot more ground to cover before we'd think about that as something more than just another possibility.  Even then, we're expecting a fair amount of volatility surrounding next week's Fed announcement. 

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Case Shiller Home Prices m/m 1.2%
    FHFA Home Prices m/m 1.0%

  • Consumer Confidence 113.8 vs 108.3 f'cast

  • New Home Sales 800k vs 760k f'cast, 702k prev

Market Movement Recap
08:33 AM

flat to slightly weaker in Asia, then stronger in Europe.  Roughly unchanged in the first 30 minutes domestically.  10yr at 1.632 and 2.5 UMBS at 102-13 (102.41).

01:37 PM

Mid day weakness heading into the 10am hour followed by a rebound over the past few hours.  Still a narrow trading range on the day.  10yr down 1.5bps at 1.618.  MBS up 1 tick (0.03). 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.5
102-15 : +0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
1.6130 : -0.0220
Pricing as of 10/26/21 4:08PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:35PM  :  Back Into Positive Territory
10:24AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Weakest Levels After Stronger Data (Maybe Not Because of It)
8:42AM  :  Bonds Turn Red After Opening Slightly Stronger

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Oct 26
9:00 Case Shiller Home Prices y/y (% ) Aug +19.7 20.0 19.9
9:00 CaseShiller Home Prices m/m (%) Aug +1.2 1.5 1.5
9:00 FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) Aug 18.5 19.2
9:00 FHFA Home Prices m/m (%) Aug 1.0 1.4
10:00 New Home Sales (ml) Sep 0.800 0.760 0.740
10:00 Consumer confidence * Oct 113.8 108.3 109.3
10:00 New Home Sales (%) (%)* Sep 14.0 1.5

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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