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MBS RECAP: Solid Afternoon Bounce, But Context Matters
Oct 22 2021, 4:45PM

There's surely some great analogy to be made about perspective (filed under the "everything's relative" category).  Bonds rallied quite nicely today with 10yr yields have their best domestic trading session since before the last Fed announcement.  MBS didn't do quite as well, but we wouldn't expect them to given the shape of the yield curve (shorter duration bonds not doing as well as longer-duration bonds).  But (wait for it...) everything's relative!  10yr yields at 1.64% are only good news compared to the past 2 days.  If you missed those 2 days, then today isn't so much a "nice rally" as a confirmation that rates are at their highest levels since April.

Econ Data / Events
Market Movement Recap
08:49 AM

Sideways to slightly stronger overnight as the 1.70% level in 10yr yields proves supportive for now.  Down 1.9bps to 1.677% currently and 2.5 UMBS are up nearly an eighth.

10:41 AM

Gains have continued moderately.  10yr now down 3.8bps at 1.658 and 2.5 UMBS up 5 ticks (.19) at 102-05 (102.16).  No major market movers in play, just short-covering after a heavy week of selling.

11:29 AM

Quick losses after Powell says "ready to taper."  MBS fell back to unchanged, but have stabilized up 3 ticks (.09).  10yr still down 3bps at 1.665.

04:23 PM

Bonds cruising into the weekend like...  Well, no time for memes.  Bonds improved further this afternoon with 2.5 UMBS up nearly a quarter point and 10yr yields down 5.5bps at 1.641.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.5
102-06 : +0-06
Treasuries
10 YR
1.6380 : -0.0370
Pricing as of 10/22/21 4:46PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:45AM  :  Reprice Risk Ebbs as Bonds Recover
11:21AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
8:56AM  :  Slightly Stronger Overnight, Sort Of...

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Oct 22
9:45 Markit Composite PMI * Oct 57.3 55.0
Tuesday, Oct 26
9:00 CaseShiller 20 yy (% ) Aug 20.1 19.9
9:00 Monthly Home Price yy (%) Aug 19.2
10:00 New Home Sales (ml) Sep 0.755 0.740
10:00 Consumer confidence * Oct 108.8 109.3
10:00 New Home Sales (%) (%)* Sep 1.5
Wednesday, Oct 27
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 266.2
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 2807.9
8:30 Core CapEx (%)* Sep 0.5 0.6
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Sep -1.0 1.8
11:30 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 28
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 61
Thursday, Oct 28
8:30 GDP Advance (%)* Q3 2.8 6.7
10:00 Pending Sales Index Sep 119.5
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Sep 0.5 8.1
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 62
Friday, Oct 29
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Sep 3.7 3.6
9:45 Chicago PMI * Oct 64.0 64.7
10:00 Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Oct 4.8
10:00 Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Oct 2.8
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Oct 71.6 71.4

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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