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MBS RECAP: Steady Selling All Day For Bonds
Oct 15 2021, 3:08PM

Bonds may have rallied on Mon-Thu, but Friday's theme has been quite different.  Right from the start of the overnight session, yields began slogging steadily higher.  When Europe came online, losses accelerated, but the pace was still modest overall.  Then at 8:30am, the surprisingly strong Retail Sales data added to the pace of the weakness.  To be clear though, the data is nothing but a supporting actor in the broader drama starring a steady decline in covid case counts, persistent inflation concerns, and an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve.

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Retail Sales 0.7 vs -0.2 f'cast, +0.9 prev

  • NY Fed Manufacturing 19.8 vs 27.0 f'cast, 34.3 prev

  • Consumer Sentiment 71.4 vs 73.1 f'cast, 72.8 prev

Market Movement Recap
08:35 AM

moderately weaker overnight.  additional selling after stronger Retail Sales data.  10yr up roughly 4bps at 1.55+.  MBS down an eighth

11:51 AM

Lighter volume and liquidity, but selling continues.  10yr at new highs, up 6bps at 1.576.  2.5 UMBS down nearly a quarter point.

02:37 PM

More time ticking down on the day, more selling pressure for MBS.  2.5 coupons now down a quarter point.  10yr still up 6bps at 1.57+

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
UMBS 2.5
102-18 : -0-10
10 YR
1.5760 : +0.0570
Pricing as of 10/15/21 3:08PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:48PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Reprices Becoming Likely
11:54AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
8:34AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: More Weakness After Stronger Retail Sales Data

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Oct 15
8:30 Export prices mm (%) Sep 0.1 0.6 0.4
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Sep 0.7 -0.2 0.7
8:30 Import prices mm (%) Sep 0.4 0.6 -0.3
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Oct 19.8 27.00 34.30
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%) Oct 4.8 4.6
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%) Oct 2.8 3.0
10:00 Consumer Sentiment Oct 71.4 73.1 72.8
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Aug 0.6 0.6 0.5

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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Mortgage Rates:
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