Thursday brought more gains for bonds, but not the kind that led us to expect a continuation of the rally.  Rather, we argued the improvement was better viewed as a consolidation of the past 3 weeks of bond market losses with the next move still up in the air.  This morning's Retail Sales data is arguing that the next move should be toward higher rates.  For the 2nd month in a row, sales were well into positive territory despite forecasts calling for a contraction.  While it hasn't been a huge deal for bonds so far this morning, they're clearly willing to react to the data.

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MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.5
102-24 : -0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
1.5550 : +0.0360
Pricing as of 10/15/21 8:57AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Friday, Oct 15
8:30 Export prices mm (%) Sep 0.6 0.4
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Sep -0.2 0.7
8:30 Import prices mm (%) Sep 0.6 -0.3
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Oct 27.00 34.30
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%) Oct 4.6
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%) Oct 3.0
10:00 Consumer Sentiment Oct 73.1 72.8
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Aug 0.6 0.5