Last week was unpleasant for the bond market.  Yields tested and then broke above the technical ceiling at 1.56%, ultimately making it as high as 1.62% before leveling off into the 3-day weekend.  The new week brings new risks and new opportunities as bonds attempt to hold the line despite a condensed slate of Treasury auctions (3 and 10yr on Monday, 30yr on Tuesday).  If recent ceilings hold up through the auction cycle, it would go a long way toward setting up a range ceiling.  But any additional weakness would reinforce a new, upwardly sloped trend for rates.

20211012 open1.png

Despite a recently weaker bias, there is a small glimmer of hope in the overnight chart.  It shows US bonds doing a fairly good job of holding ground despite an ongoing suggestion of additional weakness in EU bond markets (note the yellow line holding flat from Friday while the red line continues higher).  

20211012 open.png

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
UMBS 2.5
102-18 : -0-01
10 YR
1.6080 : +0.0030
Pricing as of 10/12/21 9:26AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Oct 12
11:30 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)*
Wednesday, Oct 13
0:00 Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 275.7
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 3037.6
8:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (%)* Sep 0.3 0.3
8:30 Core CPI (Annual) (%)* Sep 4.0 4.0
13:00 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl)
Thursday, Oct 14
8:30 Core Producer Prices YY (%)* Sep 7.1 6.7
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 319 326
Friday, Oct 15
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Sep -0.2 0.7
8:30 Import prices mm (%) Sep 0.6 -0.3
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Oct 27.00 34.30
10:00 Consumer Sentiment Oct 73.1 72.8
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Aug 0.6 0.5