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MBS RECAP: Highest Yields in Months. Could Jobs Report Make it Worse?
Oct 7 2021, 3:29PM

After a somewhat hopeful bounce in yesterday's trading session, and a decent overnight session, Thursday ended up being a bad day. With the jobs report on deck tomorrow, could things get even worse?  That's always a possibility, but it wouldn't necessarily have to do with whether or not the jobs report is stronger or weaker than expected.  Either way, and no matter what happens tomorrow, the path of least resistance is clearly toward higher rates.  

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Jobless Claims 326k vs 348k f'cast, 364k prev

Market Movement Recap
08:40 AM

Decent overnight session with bonds making it to US hours unchanged.  Weaker since then.  Data not helping.  10yr up 1.4bps to 1.542.  MBS down nearly an eighth.

12:00 PM

Slow burn continues.  Treasuries at weakest levels, up 3.4bps at 1.562.  MBS down an eighth.

02:37 PM

New lows for the day in MBS and new highs in 10yr yields.  No new market movers, just ongoing momentum.  10yr up 4bps at 1.57%.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.5
102-28 : -0-06
Treasuries
10 YR
1.5730 : +0.0490
Pricing as of 10/7/21 3:29PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
12:25PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
9:34AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Quick Move to Weakest Levels
8:55AM  :  Flat Overnight, But Sellers Emerge in Domestic Session

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Oct 07
7:30 Challenger layoffs (k) Sep 17.895 15.723
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 326 348 362
8:30 Continued Claims (ml) w/e 2.714 2.780 2.802
Friday, Oct 08
8:30 Non-farm payrolls (k)* Sep 500 235
8:30 Unemployment rate mm (%)* Sep 5.1 5.2
10:00 Wholesale inventories mm (%) Aug 1.2 1.2

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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