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MBS RECAP: Token Rally a Small Concession For Recent Selling Spree
Sep 29 2021, 4:17PM

After 4 straight days of heavy selling pressure, bonds finally found their footing today.  Pessimists took offense to the underwhelming size of the rally while optimists were grateful that it didn't end up being a 5th day of selling pressure.  As for motivations, we don't have anything massively compelling and obvious.  At this time of month/year, we can generally assume big money managers are adjusting trading positions and bond holdings as a part of the month-end index extension process as well as fiscal year-end.  Other 'usual suspects' include safe-haven demand dur to stock market weakness, a smaller drop in week-over-week covid cases, and of course, technicals/momentum.  Either way, we'd need to see bigger buying before talking about bonds making a case for a near-term rate ceiling.

Econ Data / Events
Market Movement Recap
08:42 AM

10yr yields down 3bps at 1.517 and UMBS 2.5 coupons up 6 ticks (.19) at 103-00.  High volume and generally a technically-motivated move.

09:46 AM

After some initial push back against the overnight rally, buyers resurfaced at the 9:30am NYSE open.  1.494 is the level to beat (overnight lows) and we're currently at 1.503%.  MBS are up a quarter point.

01:15 PM

Modest weakness since 10am.  Still in positive territory, but MBS are an eighth off the highs.  10yr yields still down 1bp but up more than 3bps from the lows.  

03:59 PM

Weakness extended just a bit after the last update, but bonds have since bounced back to levels that are just slightly better (-1.7 bps in 10yr yields to 1.531%).  MBS are up an eighth on the day (2.5 coupons).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.5
102-31 : +0-04
Treasuries
10 YR
1.5270 : -0.0090
Pricing as of 9/29/21 4:17PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:33PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Reprice Risk Increasing (But There Are Still Caveats)
1:15PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds at Weakest Levels; Reprice Risk Considerations
9:09AM  :  Modestly Stronger Overnight. It's a Start (And Maybe a Stop)

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Sep 29
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 280.4 283.9
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 3359.5 3391.1
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Aug +8.1 1.4 -1.8
10:00 Pending Sales Index Aug 119.5 110.7

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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Mortgage Rates:
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