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MBS RECAP: Here's What's NOT Moving The Bond Market
Sep 28 2021, 4:50PM

Another day, another surprisingly brisk selling spree in the bond market.  Unlike several recent examples where the end of a Treasury auction cycle brought some relief for negative momentum, this week's final auction had a slightly negative effect.  In the bigger picture, market movers continue to be a strange combination of completely obvious and uniquely enigmatic.  We've given plenty of attention to that list over the past few days, but how about stuff that has been falsely, but widely accused of having an impact?  One of the best examples of this (both now and in the past, as it concerns smaller drama) is the composition of voters and non-voters at the Fed.

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Case Shiller Home Prices (JUL Y/Y) 19.9 vs 19.1 prev
    FHFA Home Prices (JUL Y/Y)  19.2 vs 18.9 prev

  • Consumer Confidence 109.3 vs 114.5 f'cast, 115.2 prev

Market Movement Recap
08:36 AM

Widespread weakness in Treasuries overnight.  Selling accelerated sharply in Europe.  10yr up almost 5bps at 1.54% and MBS down almost a quarter point.

11:10 AM

Still weaker but off the weakest levels as heavy selling in stocks creates safe-haven buying demand.  10yr up 4bps now at 1.532 and MBS down only 6 ticks (.19). 

01:21 PM

positive rebound continued after the last update, but now seeing modest weakness after 7yr Treasury auction.  10yr back up to 1.53 after dipping below 1.52 earlier.  MBS are outperforming and are now down only an eighth. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.5
102-27 : -0-07
Treasuries
10 YR
1.5440 : +0.0600
Pricing as of 9/28/21 4:50PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
4:40PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Some Negative Reprice Risk For Some Lenders
1:07PM  :  No Huge Victory With Uninspired 7yr Auction
8:54AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Sharply Weaker Overnight as The World Dumps Treasuries

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Sep 28
9:00 CaseShiller 20 yy (% ) Jul +19.9 20.0 19.1
9:00 Monthly Home Price yy (%) Jul 19.2 18.8
10:00 Consumer confidence * Sep 109.3 114.5 113.8
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 62

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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