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MBS RECAP: Range Breakout or New Trend Channel?
Sep 24 2021, 3:37PM

It was an interesting trading session in the bond market as Treasury yields closed at their weakest levels at the same time that MBS were at their strongest levels.  This uncommon scenario was made possible by a combination of previous MBS underperformance and anxiety over next week's Treasury auction cycle.  In the bigger picture, the moderate weakness in Treasuries serves to confirm the unfriendly range breakout.  But as we discussed this morning, we could also view this weakness in the context of a new trend channel.

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Existing Home Sales 5.88m vs 5.89m f'cast, 6.00m prev

Market Movement Recap
08:40 AM

Bonds found their footing overnight, but not in any decisive way.  EU bonds hurt while a risk-off move in stocks helped.  10yr yield down 1bp at 1.425 and UMBS 2.5 coupons are unchanged.  UMBS 2.0 are up 1 tick (.03).

10:00 AM

Modest gains have been replaced by moderate weakness.  MBS are down roughly an eighth of a point and 10yr yields are now up 1.2bps to 1.447%.  The NYSE open (930am ET) was the jumping off point for the shift in momentum.

12:22 PM

Weakness brought buyers to both sides of the bond market, but especially to MBS (Treasuries are still relatively more nervous ahead of next week's auctions).  MBS back into positive territory by roughly an eighth of a point.

03:27 PM

Treasuries at weakest levels but MBS at best levels.  This uncommon turn of events brought to you by a combination of previous MBS underperformance and anxiety over next week's Treasury auction supply.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
UMBS 2.5
103-07 : +0-03
10 YR
1.4590 : +0.0490
Pricing as of 9/24/21 3:37PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
12:21PM  :  Back Into Positive Territory (New Highs For MBS)
9:48AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Losing Ground More Quickly After NYSE Open
9:18AM  :  Bonds Inconsequentially Stronger Overnight

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Sep 24
10:00 New Home Sales (%) (%)* Aug +1.5 1.0
10:00 New Home Sales (ml) Aug 0.740 0.714 0.708
Monday, Sep 27
8:30 Core CapEx (%)* Aug 0.4 0.1
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Aug 0.7 -0.1
11:30 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 60
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 61
Tuesday, Sep 28
9:00 CaseShiller 20 yy (% ) Jul 20.0 19.1
9:00 CaseShiller 20 mm SA (%) Jul 1.6 1.8
9:00 Monthly Home Price yy (%) Jul 18.8
9:00 Monthly Home Price mm (%) Jul 1.6
10:00 Consumer confidence * Sep 114.5 113.8
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 62
Wednesday, Sep 29
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 283.9
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 3391.1
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Aug 1.3 -1.8
10:00 Pending Sales Index Aug 110.7
Thursday, Sep 30
8:30 GDP Final (%) Q2 6.6 6.6
9:45 Chicago PMI * Sep 65.0 66.8
Friday, Oct 01
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Aug 3.5 3.6
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * Sep 59.5 59.9
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Sep 71.0 71.0
10:00 Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Sep 4.7
10:00 Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Sep 2.9
10:00 Construction spending (%) Aug 0.3 0.3

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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