The only good news this AM is that Today's NFP was indeed the major guidance-giving, market-moving report we've been expecting. Bad News: it's not the guidance that originators were hoping for...
* July NFP Down 247k, much lower than expectations
* Unemployment Rate Unexpectedtly DOWN to 9.4% From 9.5%
* Average Hourly Earnings and Workweek Up
* In addition, previous reading revised up to -443k from -467k
This is the smallest decline since August 2008 and it adds super-flammable accelerants of all kinds to the already blazing fires of economic recovery. And what is mutually exclusive with rapid and better-than-expected economic recovery? Low rates... Low Treasury Rates... Low Mortgage Rates... And ultimately a low mortality rate among originators who didn't have a majority of their pipeline locked ..
The 10yr and the 4.5 are both worse by a point. If things don't retrace or get worse, rate sheets this AM likely to be worse by at least 1.0... If for some crazy reason, you have the ability to lock yesterday's rates still... Stop reading and start locking... If not, we'll be back shortly to report on the continuation or reversal of the trends this AM. Either way, you'd be waiting for that first AM rate sheet, and it ain't gonna be pretty...
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