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MBS RECAP: Sideways Vibes Won't Give Up Just Yet
Sep 15 2021, 4:08PM

Bonds made a move yesterday with yields breaking below the lower boundary of the prevailing consolidation range.  This type of breakout is a positive sign, generally, but it requires confirmation from the following day of trading (i.e. today).  Earlier today, it looked like confirmation was in the cards, but things went south heading into the close of the European session.  Yields jumped modestly higher, breaking above the 1.30% technical level in 10s, even if not by much.  This suggests short-covering was a driver of yesterday's rally and that sideways vibes remain in the slightly bigger picture.

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Core CPI (y/y) 4.0 vs 4.2 f'cast, 4.3 prev

Market Movement Recap
08:18 AM

Flat to slightly stronger overnight despite some unfriendly data in Europe.  10yr down 2bps to 1.263 and MBS up 2 ticks (0.06) so far.

09:08 AM

Slightly weaker now after AM data (mostly due to NY Fed Manufacturing).  10yr up 0.3bps to 1.287 and MBS now down 1 tick (-0.03).  

11:38 AM

Weakness continued gradually at first, but accelerated a bit in the past half hour.  MBS now down more than an eighth vs highs and just under an eighth on the day.  10yr yield up 2.3bps at 1.307%.

04:06 PM

Modest recovery heading into after hours session.  In fact, the recovery arguably began right when EU markets closed for the day (not a coincidence if we're viewing EU bond weakness as a factor today).  10yr yields now up 1.7bps at 1.301, and MBS down less than an eighth.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
101-09 : -0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
1.3020 : +0.0230
Pricing as of 9/15/21 4:08PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:29AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
8:59AM  :  Bond Give Up Gains After Data and Central Bank Comments

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matt Graham  :  "Fannie sent out a blanket announcement that would allow any lender who jacked up NOO/2nd pricing to now jack it back down (best I can tell). "Per FHFA’s announcement on September 14, “FHFA and Treasury Suspending Certain Portions of the 2021 Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements,” effective immediately, Fannie Mae is rescinding any previously communicated expectations placed on the volume of investment property and second home loans sold to Fannie Mae. Note that the terms of LL-2021-08 continue to apply. Please continue to deliver a representative mix of business. Please reach out to your Fannie Mae Business Account Management representatives with any questions.""

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Sep 15
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 277.9 258.4
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 3185.6 3292.1
8:30 Import prices mm (%) Aug -0.3 0.3 0.3
8:30 Export prices mm (%) Aug 0.4 0.4 1.3
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Sep 34.3 18.00 18.30
9:15 Industrial Production (%) Aug 0.4 0.4 0.9
10:30 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) w/e -6.422 -3.544 -1.529
Thursday, Sep 16
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Aug -0.8 -1.1
8:30 Philly Fed Business Index * Sep 18.8 19.4
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 330 310
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Jul 0.5 0.8

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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