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MBS RECAP: Bonds Rally After CPI Gives Fed The Week Off
Sep 14 2021, 4:13PM

Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was one of the only big ticket economic reports left before next week's Fed announcement, and perhaps the only one that could have meaningfully impacted the Fed's decision-making process.  By coming in tamer than expected (and with several notable sectors such as used autos being down 1.5%), today's result effectively tells the Fed it can take next week off.  Had today's report been significantly stronger than expected, markets may have panicked for fear that the Fed could announce some measure of reduction in its rate-friendly policies.

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Core CPI (y/y) 4.0 vs 4.2 f'cast, 4.3 prev

Market Movement Recap
08:41 AM

Slightly weaker overnight with 10yr as high as 1.35 this morning.  Quick, small recovery after CPI data, but stalling/reversing now.  10yr nearly hit 1.33, now up to 1.345 (+1.7 bps on the day).  MBS down 2 ticks (0.06) at 101-05 (101.16).

09:46 AM

The rally is back on and yields are now near new lows for the day, down 2.2bps at 1.304.  MBS are now up an eighth of a point after being slightly weaker earlier this morning.

02:54 PM

Very quiet after the AM snowball rally.  10yr yields have been down in the 1.28% neighborhood since then, currently -4.7bps on the day at 1.279.  MBS are up nearly a quarter point and have also been flat since 10am.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
101-13 : +0-06
Treasuries
10 YR
1.2770 : -0.0470
Pricing as of 9/14/21 4:13PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:36AM  :  Weaker Overnight; Slightly Stronger After CPI

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Sep 14
8:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (%)* Aug +0.3 0.4 0.5
8:30 Core CPI (Annual) (%)* Aug 4.0 4.2 4.3
Wednesday, Sep 15
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 258.4
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 3292.1
8:30 Import prices mm (%) Aug 0.3 0.3
8:30 Export prices mm (%) Aug 0.4 1.3
9:15 Industrial Production (%) Aug 0.4 0.9

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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