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MBS RECAP: Particularly Calm Before a Particularly Important NFP
Sep 2 2021, 4:05PM

The widest trading range of the week has been 4.5bps (Tuesday), but tomorrow's jobs report could easily result in twice as much movement, or even three times as much.  Based on the relevant technical levels, that means bonds closed in the most neutral position possible (1.30% in 10yr yields leaves an equal amount of distance to the top and bottom of the 4-week range).  With that level already marking the close for yesterday, traders didn't need to do much today--a fact that's evident in the week's smallest trading range and lowest volume profile.  

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Jobless Claims 340k vs 345k f'cast, 354k prev

Market Movement Recap
08:44 AM

Flat in Asia, then stronger in Europe, led by European bonds.  No major reaction to AM data.  10yr down 1bp at 1.29% and MBS up 1 tick.

01:25 PM

Modest weakness in the 10am hour with yields cresting 1.30% briefly.  Sideways to slightly stronger since then.  Lower volume and lower volatility vs yesterday.  MBS up 1 tick (0.03) at 101-11 (101.34).

03:01 PM

Bonds hit the 3pm close with the sideways vibe easily intact. Levels are unchanged from the last update.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
101-13 : +0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
1.2870 : -0.0150
Pricing as of 9/2/21 4:05PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:37AM  :  Slightly Stronger Overnight; No Reaction to Data

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Sep 02
7:30 Challenger layoffs (k) Aug 15.723 18.942
8:30 Labor Costs Revised (%) Q2 1.3 0.9 1.0
8:30 Productivity Revised (%) Q2 2.1 2.4 2.3
8:30 International trade mm $ (bl) Jul -70.1 -71.0 -75.7
8:30 Continued Claims (ml) w/e 2.748 2.775 2.862
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 340 345 353
10:00 Factory orders mm (%) Jul 0.4 0.3 1.5

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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