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MBS RECAP: Bonds Waiting For More Relevant Inspiration
Sep 1 2021, 5:06PM

Today's ADP employment data missed the mark by quite a bit.  If there was one reason that bonds were able to move back into positive territory after overnight weakness, that was it.  The gains didn't last long thanks to a combination of EU bond market weakness and general tradeflows at the NYSE open.  In fairness, the gains returned by the end of the day, but just barely.  The takeaway in the bigger picture is that bonds are consolidating and waiting for more relevant inspiration.

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • ADP Employment 374k vs 613k f'cast, 326k prev

  • ISM Manufacturing 59.9 vs 58.6 f'cast
    Prices Paid 79.4 vs 83.8 f'cast

Market Movement Recap
08:18 AM

Bonds were moderately weaker in the first few hours of the overnight session but bounced back just a bit since then.  The weaker ADP data helped, and bonds just now hit 'unchanged' levels on the day.

11:05 AM

Back into negative territory now as the data-driven rally stalled out when 10yr yields hit 1.284%.  European bond weakness remains a drag on US bonds.  10yr up .3bps at 1.31% and MBS are down 2 ticks (0.06).

04:07 PM

Bonds found their footing shortly after the last update and have been sideways ever since.  Reprice activity has been minimal, to say the least.  2.0 UMBS down only 1 tick at 101-10 (101.31) and 10yr yield down .7bps at 1.30%.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
101-10 : -0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
1.2990 : -0.0030
Pricing as of 9/1/21 5:06PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:02AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
8:45AM  :  Bonds Erase Overnight Weakness After ADP

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Sep 01
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 259.0 257.5
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 3385.8 3520.7
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* Aug 374 613 330
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * Aug 59.9 58.6 59.5
10:00 ISM Mfg Prices Paid Aug 79.4 83.8 85.7

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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