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MBS RECAP: Powell Sticks to Script. Bonds Like It
Aug 27 2021, 3:23PM

Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech has come and gone without causing any major drama.  He held very close to his recent script which acknowledges the prospect of tapering in the near future while remaining dependent on just a bit more data and track record with the delta variant.  Bonds had positioned defensively ahead of the speech and are simply pricing out some (not all!) of that defensiveness heading into a big week of econ data.

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Core PCE Inflation 3.6 v 3.6 f'cast/prev

Market Movement Recap
08:48 AM

refreshingly calm overnight with modest additional gains after the as-expected inflation data.  10yr down almost 3bps at 1.326% and 2.0 UMBS up an eighth.  Powell on deck at Jackson Hole in a few hours.

09:43 AM

Fairly sharp reversal in bonds as traders gear up for Powell's speech.  Newswires from other Fed speakers are also in play.  MBS down 2 ticks on the day (0.06) and nearly a quarter point from intraday highs.  10yr yields up .4bps at 1.358.

10:18 AM

Bouncing back nicely as Powell speaks (generally dovish, aka "bond-friendly").  10yr at lows of day, down 3.7bps at 1.317 and 2.0 UMBS up almost a quarter point at 101-11 (101.34).

01:44 PM

Post-Powell rally continues.  2.0 UMBS now up 10 ticks (.31) on the day at 101-14 (101.44).  10yr down roughly 4bps at 1.312.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
101-14 : +0-10
Treasuries
10 YR
1.3070 : -0.0370
Pricing as of 8/27/21 3:23PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:07AM  :  Powell's Prepared Remarks Are Well Received So Far
9:55AM  :  Weakness Quickly Erased, But...
9:42AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
8:42AM  :  Slightly Stronger After Inflation Data

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Aug 27
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Jul 3.6 3.6 3.5
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Aug 70.3 70.7 70.2
10:00 Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Aug 4.6 4.6

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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