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MBS RECAP: Bonds Leveling Off But Not Out of The Woods
Aug 26 2021, 3:43PM

Bonds began the day with a test of the important technical ceiling at 1.37% in 10yr yields.  With some help from geopolitical risk due to bombings in Kabul, bonds managed to stay fairly calm with the 10yr just a hair better than 'unchanged' at the 3pm CME close.  MBS also found their footing and were 2 ticks (0.06) higher at the same time. We're not out of the woods yet though.  Tomorrow brings Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech in the afternoon.  More than a few traders moved to the sidelines this week for this event.  They're ready to jump back in based on what Powell says (as either buyers or sellers).  

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Jobless Claims 353k vs 350k f'cast, 349k prev

  • Q2 GDP (1st revision) 6.6 vs 6.7 f'cast

Market Movement Recap
09:48 AM

Slightly stronger and mostly flat during Asian hours followed by moderate weakness during the European session.  10yr yields up less than 1bp at 1.356.  UMBS 2.0 coupons are down 6bps (2 ticks).  No significant data this AM.  

11:04 AM

Bonds turning green after Kabul bombing headlines (more details here)

12:54 PM

Bonds back in negative territory ahead of the 7yr Treasury auction. 10yr up 1bp to 1.359 and UMBS 2.0 down almost an eighth of a point.

01:20 PM

A hair stronger after decent 7yr auction.  Bonds roughly unchanged now with 10yr just over 1.35% and MBS +0.00 at 101-03 (101.09).

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
UMBS 2.0
101-05 : +0-02
10 YR
1.3410 : -0.0030
Pricing as of 8/26/21 3:43PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:07PM  :  7yr Auction Mostly On The Screws; No Major Reaction So Far
11:04AM  :  Bonds Turn Green on Flight-to-Safety (Kabul Explosion Headlines)
10:14AM  :  Bonds Go From Green to Red After ECB Minutes

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Aug 26
8:30 GDP Prelim (%) Q2 6.6 6.7 6.5
8:30 Continued Claims (ml) w/e 2.862 2.790 2.820
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 353 350 348
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 62
Friday, Aug 27
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Jul 3.6 3.5
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Aug 70.7 70.2

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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