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MBS RECAP: Bonds Increasingly Under Pressure So Far This Week
Aug 25 2021, 4:09PM

Although the week began in forgettable fashion, Tuesday saw yields move up at a moderate pace with no overt provocation. Indeed a quick glance at the 5-day candlestick chart leaves one with the impression that bonds simply targeted the 1.30% technical level and set their selling programs on cruise control.  While it's early yet, yields are trying to challenge that ceiling to start the day.  Breaking above wouldn't be the end of the world as rates are still better described as "broadly sideways at long-term lows."  While that range may come under pressure in the run up to Friday's Powell speech, it's next week's trading that matters more.

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Durable Goods -0.1 vs -0.3 f'cast
    Core Cap-Ex    0.0 vs 0.5 f'cast

Market Movement Recap
07:33 AM

Bonds flat to slightly weaker overnight wit most of the damage coming during European trading.  10yr yields are up 1.2bps at 1.309%. MBS are still trying to find liquidity for the morning, but are set to open about 2 ticks (0.06) lower if bonds don't go too crazy in the next 30 minutes.

08:32 AM

No major reaction to durable goods data.  The headline was a hair better than expected, but core-capex (nondefense durable goods orders excluding aircraft) missed by a wider margin (0.0 vs 0.5).  Bonds haven't budged in the past 2 minutes. 

12:42 PM

The 10yr spiked to 1.339% late in the morning session, but met some resistance there and have since leveled off. 2.0 MBS are still down about an eighth for the day.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
101-03 : -0-06
Treasuries
10 YR
1.3440 : +0.0540
Pricing as of 8/25/21 4:09PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:13PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Additional Reprice Risk After 5 YR Auction
10:41AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: MBS Down An Eighth From AM Highs
8:28AM  :  Slightly Weaker Overnight, Waiting on Data and Auctions

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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