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MBS RECAP: Unexpected Snowball Rally After Consumer Sentiment Data
Aug 13 2021, 4:29PM

Snowball moves in markets, by their nature, tend to be unexpected.  Today's was downright surprising, largely because the extent of the "miss" in Consumer Sentiment data was equally surprising.  This is not a report that typically accounts for this much movement.  Even in today's case, it was only worth 3bps of improvement in 10yr yields.  But that 3bps was enough to prompt short-covering and technical triggers that helped bonds drop several more bps by the end of the day.

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Import Prices 0.3 vs 0.6 f'cast
    Export Prices 1.3 vs 0.8 f'cast

  • Consumer Sentiment 70.2 vs 81.2 f'cast/prev
    (lowest since 2011)

Market Movement Recap
09:32 AM

Slightly stronger overnight with European bonds pushing back just before the domestic open and now bouncing back into positive territory.  Treasuries following to some extent with 10yr down 2.4bps at 1.337 and MBS up an eighth.

10:11 AM

Additional gains after a staggeringly weak consumer sentiment report (lowest reading since 2011).  10s down 4+ bps and MBS up 6 ticks (.19).

12:08 PM

Low volume, low liquidity mini-snowball rally as 10s test 1.30% as a floor, currently down 6.6 bps at 1.295.  MBS are up a quarter of a point.

04:20 PM

Another bp lower versus the last update as trades slow to a trickle for the week.  10yr yields down 7.6bps at 1.285. MBS prices are up 10 ticks or 0.30.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
UMBS 2.0
101-11 : +0-10
10 YR
1.2830 : -0.0840
Pricing as of 8/13/21 4:29PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:11AM  :  Lowest Consumer Sentiment Since 2011
9:49AM  :  Stronger Overnight and Resilient So Far

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Aug 13
8:30 Import prices mm (%) Jul 0.3 0.6 1.0
8:30 Export prices mm (%) Jul 1.3 0.8 1.2
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%) Aug 3.0 2.8
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%) Aug 4.6 4.7
10:00 Consumer Sentiment Aug 70.2 81.2 81.2

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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