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MBS RECAP: Fed Hints At Tapering, But Bonds Don't Care
Jul 28 2021, 4:34PM

Why are rates lower despite the Fed announcement taking another step toward tapering?  It's a trick question actually.  True, the Fed did tweak some verbiage to grease the skids for tapering, but that was widely expected.  During the press conference, Powell did a good job of managing market expectations and clearly reiterating the economy is still "a ways away" from justifying a policy shift.  Traders basically knew that.  Confirmation, combined with uncertainty created by the rapidly changing pandemic landscape (delta, case counts, vax efficacy, masks, etc.), was more than enough to keep rates on a friendly course. 

Econ Data / Events
Market Movement Recap
08:28 AM

slightly weaker overnight despite weaker EU econ data.  Best explanation = "range trade," with yields having bottomed out inside the near-term range as of yesterday afternoon.  10s are 3bps higher at 1.269 and 2.0 UMBS are up an eighth of a point at 101-22 (101.69).

12:42 PM

Slightly better buying in the AM hours with MBS now just 1 tick shy of unchanged (-0.03).  10yr yields are up only 1.4bps at 1.253%.  

03:02 PM

Decent amount of volatility and modest amount of weakness after Fed.  Powell press conference not having a big additional impact.  10yr yields are no higher than they were earlier this morning, but still up versus 2pm (2.7bps on the day).  MBS briefly dipped below AM lows, but are now back above (down an eighth on the day).

03:53 PM

Additional gains now after Powell finished the press conference.  Bonds are well into best levels.  UMBS 2.0 up 2 ticks (0.06) on the day at 101-28 (101.875).  10yr yield down 1bp at 1.229%.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
UMBS 2.0
101-28 : +0-02
10 YR
1.2380 : +0.0040
Pricing as of 7/28/21 4:34PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:24PM  :  Bonds Bouncing Back
2:37PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Reprice Risk Increasing After Powell's Prepared Remarks
2:19PM  :  Fed Bullet Point Cliff Notes
2:03PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds Losing Ground After Fed; Reprice Risk
9:09AM  :  Weaker Overnight, But Not Reading Much Into It

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Hugh W. Page  :  "I think they're going to say that they discussed the possibility of when they might begin discussing whether they should start discussing about when they should taper. :)"
John G. Tassios NMLS: 114027  :  "end result today: FED Reserve has no clue how inflation, employment econ data, Covid will play out. Bond Mkt has No Clue how or when FED will Taper or move on policy. We on our end have no clue how MBS and other spreads will react to TSY's @2cents"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Jul 28
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 251.7 255.8
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 3570.4 3267.6
14:00 FOMC rate decision (%)* N/A 0.125 0.125 0.125
14:30 Powell Press Conference 7/28/21 *
Thursday, Jul 29
8:30 GDP Advance (%)* Q2 8.5 6.4
8:30 Continued Claims (ml) w/e 3.196 3.236
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 380 419
10:00 Pending Sales Index Jun 114.7
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Jun 0.3 8.0
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 62

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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Mortgage Rates:
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