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MBS RECAP: Deceptively Interesting Trading Range Ahead of Fed
Jul 27 2021, 4:01PM

After a move up from 1.25 to nearly 1.30% on Monday, 10yr yields dropped back below 1.25% almost immediately on Tuesday.  Those looking for reasons might find explanations ranging from Chinese stock market weakness to covid case counts to pre-Fed jitters.  In general though, bonds have been sideways between 1.22 and 1.31 since last Wednesday.  It's only when we move outside that range that something new and interesting will be happening in terms of bigger picture momentum.  Wednesday afternoon's Fed announcement brings the next big chance at volatility.

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Durable Goods 0.8 vs 2.1 f'cast, 3.2 prev

Market Movement Recap
08:55 AM

moderately stronger overnight, mostly at EU open, but with an eye on heavy selling in Chinese equities.  10yr dropped from 1.29 to 1.25.  MBS are starting out more than an eighth of a point higher.  Durable Goods barely registered a response despite a reasonably big miss (offset by positive revisions, perhaps, or traders just don't care).

01:16 PM

No major reaction to 5yr auction.  Bonds have been flat all day after the initial rally heading into domestic hours.  MBS are up a quarter point now and 10yr yields are down 6+ bps at 1.233%.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
101-24 : +0-06
Treasuries
10 YR
1.2360 : -0.0400
Pricing as of 7/27/21 4:01PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:35PM  :  No Reaction to 5yr Auction (No Objection!)
8:55AM  :  Slightly Stronger Overnight and After Durables Miss

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jul 27
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Jun 0.8 2.1 2.3
9:00 Monthly Home Price yy (%) May 18.0 15.7
9:00 Monthly Home Price mm (%) May 1.7 1.8
9:00 CaseShiller 20 yy (% ) May 17.0 16.4 14.9
9:00 CaseShiller 20 mm SA (%) May 1.8 1.6 1.6
10:00 Consumer confidence * Jul 129.1 123.9 127.3
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 61

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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