After having gained so much over the past 4 months (not to mention the removal of the adverse market fee), and with a Fed announcement due out tomorrow afternoon, it wouldn't have been a surprise to see bonds take a more defensive stance overnight and this morning.  Instead, 10yr yields are trying to fight through the 1.25% technical level (and they're largely winning) thanks to big weakness in Chinese equities and a strong bond market response in Europe.

20210727 open.png

In the bigger picture, rising covid case counts continue to correlate quite well with the recent bond rally.  The following chart shows a 7 day centered moving average of case counts (which is like a micro-seasonal adjustment for variations in reporting/testing between different days of the week).

20210727 open2.png

Today's key event in terms of volatility potential (at least when it comes to scheduled calendar events) will the afternoon's 5yr Treasury auction.  Apart from that, we could see additional volatility that's NOT tied to any of today's events as traders take their positions (or close them) ahead of tomorrow's Fed announcement.  

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
UMBS 2.0
101-25 : +0-07
10 YR
1.2380 : -0.0380
Pricing as of 7/27/21 10:17AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jul 27
8:30 Core CapEx (%)* Jun 0.7 0.1
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Jun 2.1 2.3
9:00 Monthly Home Price yy (%) May 15.7
9:00 Monthly Home Price mm (%) May 1.8
9:00 CaseShiller 20 yy (% ) May 16.4 14.9
9:00 CaseShiller 20 mm SA (%) May 1.6 1.6
10:00 Consumer confidence * Jul 123.9 127.3
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 61