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MBS RECAP: Ending on an Equivocal Note Ahead of Fed Week
Jul 23 2021, 3:19PM

If we look through the small-scale volatility throughout the week, we see bond yields moving back up to last week's lows as of Wednesday and essentially remaining flat since then.  In that sense, Monday was the big panic day for markets, Tuesday was transitional, and the rest have been equivocal.  Next week's Fed announcement introduces bigger volatility risks.  Beyond the Fed, daily covid case counts (and any other significant covid-related news) will continue to be scrutinized as traders attempt to gauge the impact of the delta variant and flatter vaccination rates.

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Markit Composite PMI 59.7 vs 63.7 previously
    Services PMI 59.8 vs 64.8 f'cast, 64.6 prev

Market Movement Recap
08:27 AM

modestly weaker overnight in quiet trading.  German Bunds retraced much of y'day's gains.  10yr up 2.1bps at 1.298%.  MBS still finding liquidity, but down roughly an eighth of a point.

10:36 AM

Markit PMI actually made a dent in the weakness after 9:45am, but the rally has run its course.  10s are still 1.6bps higher on the day at 2.0 UMBS are 2 ticks (0.06) lower.

02:52 PM

Steadier and slightly stronger for most of the mid-day hours.  MBS are still down 2 ticks (0.06), but had made it back to unchanged levels a few moments ago.  10yr yields have been very flat near 1.29%.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
101-20 : -0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
1.2860 : +0.0190
Pricing as of 7/23/21 3:19PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:51AM  :  Slightly Weaker Overnight in Light Trading

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jul 23
9:45 Markit Composite PMI * Jul 59.7 63.7
9:45 Markit Services PMI * Jul 59.8 64.8 64.6
9:45 Markit Manuf. PMI * Jul 63.1 62.0 62.1
Monday, Jul 26
10:00 New Home Sales (ml) Jun 0.800 0.769
10:00 New Home Sales (%) (%)* Jun 3.5 -5.9
13:00 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 60
Tuesday, Jul 27
8:30 Core CapEx (%)* Jun 0.5 0.1
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Jun 2.1 2.3
9:00 Monthly Home Price yy (%) May 15.7
9:00 Monthly Home Price mm (%) May 1.8
9:00 CaseShiller 20 yy (% ) May 16.3 14.9
10:00 Consumer confidence * Jul 124.1 127.3
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 61
Wednesday, Jul 28
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 255.8
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 3267.6
14:00 FOMC rate decision (%)* N/A 0.125 0.125
Thursday, Jul 29
8:30 GDP Advance (%)* Q2 8.6 6.4
10:00 Pending Sales Index Jun 114.7
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Jun 0.5 8.0
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 62
Friday, Jul 30
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Jun 3.7 3.4
9:45 Chicago PMI * Jul 63.5 66.1
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Jul 80.8 80.8

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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