The week is off to a very strong start as heavy selling in stocks coincided with a flight to safety in bonds during the overnight session.  Treasuries gained momentum after breaking the recent lows from July 8th, ultimately hitting 1.225% at the start of the CME session (8:20am ET).  Overnight lows of 1.215 coincide with the gap we discussed on July 8th (1.213 - 1.25 from back in February).  The next major inflection point is 0.99%, which feels like a bridge too far in the current environment (but so did 1.21% just a few short weeks ago).

20210719 open2.png

There are no big ticket events on the econ calendar for Monday, and the rest of the week is mostly focused on housing.  Broader markets will be more interested in central bank updates.  The European Central Bank (ECB) releases its policy announcement on Thursday.  European yields have been correlating very well with US yields and stock prices.

20210719 open.png


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
101-26 : +0-12
Treasuries
10 YR
1.2200 : -0.0790
Pricing as of 7/19/21 9:13AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Monday, Jul 19
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Jul 82 81
Tuesday, Jul 20
8:30 Build permits: change mm (%) Jun -2.9
8:30 Housing starts number mm (ml) Jun 1.590 1.572
8:30 Building permits: number (ml) Jun 1.700 1.683
8:30 House starts mm: change (%) Jun 3.6
Wednesday, Jul 21
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 273.3
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 3361.5
Thursday, Jul 22
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 350 360
8:30 Continued Claims (ml) w/e 3.100 3.241
10:00 Existing home sales (ml)* Jun 5.90 5.80
10:00 Exist. home sales % chg (%)* Jun -0.9
10:00 Leading index chg mm (%) Jun 0.9 1.3
Friday, Jul 23
9:45 Markit Composite PMI * Jul 63.7
9:45 Markit Services PMI * Jul 64.8 64.6
9:45 Markit Manuf. PMI * Jul 62.0 62.1