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MBS RECAP: Quiet Bond Market Leaves Focus on Demise of Adverse Market Fee
Jul 16 2021, 5:09PM

Seemingly out of the blue, the much-maligned adverse market fee for conventional refis was removed today.  Lenders acted quickly to adjust pricing for new locks with most going so far as to adjust existing locks depending on their nearness to the closing table.  This made for good drama and discussion on MBS Live, and it was an ideal day for such things considering a complete absence of volume and volatility in the bond market.  10yr yields ended with 1bp of unchanged and MBS underperformed slightly to end 2-3 ticks weaker (-0.06-0.09).  The underperformance could be as simple as investors making token adjustments for the impact on prepayment speeds from the removal of the adverse market fee (it's not a huge consideration, but it could bring more loans from this spring into the money for a refi).

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Retail Sales +0.6 vs -0.4 f'cast, -1.7 prev 

  • Consumer Sentiment 80.8 vs 86.5 f'cast, 85.5 prev

Market Movement Recap
08:55 AM

little-changed after stronger Retail Sales data.  10yr up 2.6bps at 1.327 (roughly unchanged since 8:30am) and 2.0 UMBS are down an eighth on the day.

12:37 PM

Calm day, erring on the side of strength.  MBS and TSYs both near best levels.  10yr almost green.  2.0 MBS still down 3 ticks (0.09).  

04:39 PM

Exceedingly gradual strength continues, just now taking 10yr yields into positive territory on the day (albeit barely).  UMBS have been essentially flat.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
101-14 : -0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
1.3000 : +0.0030
Pricing as of 7/16/21 5:09PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:18AM  :  The 0.5 Refi Fee is Going Away!
8:55AM  :  Little-Changed After Stronger Retail Sales

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jul 16
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Jun 0.6 -0.4 -1.7
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%) Jul 2.9 2.8
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%) Jul 4.8 4.2
10:00 Consumer Sentiment Jul 80.8 86.5 85.5
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) May 0.5 0.5 -0.2

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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