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MBS RECAP: Bigger Picture Bounce or Just Another Pre-Weekend Pause
Jul 9 2021, 2:23PM

Bonds were moderately to sharply weaker overnight and deteriorated further in the afternoon.  Given the strong move to 1.25% in 10yr yields the day before, you'd be well within your right to worry about a bigger picture bounce.  That said, the bond market is also well within its right to sell off 6bps in Treasuries and 3/8ths of a point in MBS on the Friday before it has to buy $120 bln of bonds and digest a new CPI in the first 2 days of the following week.  In other words, we may not get a great answer about big-picture bounces or pre-weekend pauses until next Wednesday.  

Econ Data / Events
Market Movement Recap
08:28 AM

Weaker overnight in a fairly linear move that started right at the open and continued through European hours.  10yr is up 4bps at 1.336 and 2.0 UMBS are down almost a quarter point.

11:34 AM

Fairly calm so far despite a bit of extra weakness in Treasuries (10yr holding right at the 1.35% technical level).  MBS have been flat since 8:30am, never more than a tick (0.03) away from those levels (down 0.22).

01:10 PM

Weakness accelerating as 10s break 1.35% ceiling (1.36% now).  MBS down 10 ticks (.31) on the day and an eighth of a point from the AM plateau.  No overt causes.  Just Friday afternoon leakage.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
UMBS 2.0
101-16 : -0-11
10 YR
1.3580 : +0.0700
Pricing as of 7/9/21 2:23PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
12:36PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
9:06AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Moderately to Sharply Weaker Overnight, Depending on Your Perspective

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jul 09
10:00 Wholesale sales mm (%) May 0.8 0.8
10:00 Wholesale inventories mm (%) May 1.3 1.1 1.1
Monday, Jul 12
11:30 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)* 38
Tuesday, Jul 13
0:00 Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
8:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (%)* Jun 0.5 0.6
8:30 Core CPI (Annual) (%)* Jun 4.0 3.8
13:00 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 24
Wednesday, Jul 14
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 255.2
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 2791.3
8:30 Core Producer Prices YY (%)* Jun 4.8 4.8
Thursday, Jul 15
8:30 Import prices mm (%) Jun 1.0 1.1
8:30 Philly Fed Business Index * Jul 28.3 30.7
8:30 Export prices mm (%) Jun 1.3 2.2
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Jul 18.00 17.40
9:15 Industrial Production (%) Jun 0.7 0.8
Friday, Jul 16
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Jun -0.6 -1.3
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%) Jul 2.8
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%) Jul 4.2
10:00 Consumer Sentiment Jul 87.0 85.5
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) May 0.3 -0.2

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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