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MBS RECAP: Impressive Move to Longer-Term Lows. What's Next?
Jul 8 2021, 4:20PM

The centerpiece of today's global trading session was an impressive overnight rally that took 10yr yields as low as 1.25%.  That was strong enough to merit a corrective bounce between 7am and 9:30am, but yields topped out just over 1.30%, not once, but multiple times.  The result is a classic pivot/inflection point on the 2-day chart--one we can continue to watch for evidence that bullish aspirations are shifting.  As far as today was concerned, the repeated bounces at 1.30% added validity to the rally, at the very least.

  

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Jobless Claims 373k vs 350k f'cast, 371k prev

Market Movement Recap
08:23 AM

Bond rally extends overnight, once again driven by the European session.  10yr yields were as low as 1.25% before bouncing up to 1.28% currently (still down 4+ bps).  MBS are up more than an eighth of a point with 2.0 coupons at 101-23 (101.72).

09:35 AM

Sellers pushing back on the gains.  10yr up 3bps from AM lows, now down only 2bps on the day at 1.30%.  MBS holding steadier, still up an eighth at 101-22 (101.69).

10:55 AM

Buyers pushing back on sellers!  Now back down to low yields of domestic session and MBS up to highs of day (2.0 coupon up more than a quarter of a point).  Gains started shortly after the last update.

03:50 PM

Best levels of the day for MBS with 2.0 coupons up 10 ticks (.31) at 101-28 (101.875).  10yr yield down 3.5bps on the day at 1.288 (supportive ceiling bounce at 1.30-ish, right in line with yesterday's lows).  


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
101-27 : +0-09
Treasuries
10 YR
1.2930 : -0.0280
Pricing as of 7/8/21 4:20PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:08AM  :  Freshly Washed Car With Birds Overhead
8:39AM  :  Jobless Claims Data An Afterthought Next to Overnight Rally

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Peter Konsoulas  :  "Worth a repeat, pardon the pun. https://twitter.com/i/status/1403459797287161860"
Matt Graham  :  "
MBS Live Update Issued
Freshly Washed Car With Birds Overhead"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jul 08
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 373 350 364
8:30 Continued Claims (ml) w/e 3.339 3.335 3.469
Friday, Jul 09
10:00 Wholesale inventories mm (%) May 1.1 1.1

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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