This week brings good potential for volatility as Friday represents the confluence of several individual events that are normally worth some volatility on their own.  The jobs report, the start of trading for a new month, the last day of trading before a 3-day weekend, and perhaps even a breakout from the recently narrow range in the bond market (1.44-1.53% 10yr yield).

As far as that range is concerned, it received some reinforcement this morning as yields bounced back down after moving up to the range ceiling on Friday.  In general, the ceiling is weaker than the floor in this case as 1.53 doesn't have a recent track record of supportive bounces in the same way that 1.44 has offered resistance bounces.  If these boundaries can remain intact by Friday, it increases the potential for a breakout following the jobs report.

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MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.5
103-11 : +0-07
Treasuries
10 YR
1.4870 : -0.0490
Pricing as of 6/28/21 10:39AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jun 29
9:00 CaseShiller 20 yy (% ) Apr 14.5 13.3
9:00 CaseShiller 20 mm SA (%) Apr 1.7 1.6
9:00 Monthly Home Price yy (%) Apr 13.9
9:00 Monthly Home Price mm (%) Apr 1.4
10:00 Consumer confidence * Jun 119.0 117.2
Wednesday, Jun 30
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 268.0
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 3110.3
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* Jun 600 978
9:45 Chicago PMI * Jun 70.0 75.2
10:00 Pending Sales Index May 106.2
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) May -0.8 -4.4
Thursday, Jul 01
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 393 411
8:30 Continued Claims (ml) w/e 3.382 3.390
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * Jun 61.0 61.2
10:00 ISM Mfg Prices Paid Jun 87.0 88.0
10:00 Construction spending (%) May 0.4 0.2
Friday, Jul 02
8:30 Non-farm payrolls (k)* Jun 690 559
8:30 Unemployment rate mm (%)* Jun 5.7 5.8