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MBS RECAP: Bonds Snooze Through Data and Infrastructure Bill
Jun 24 2021, 3:26PM

The day began with a morning of lackluster econ data being met with a yawn from the bond market.  A few hours later, the long-awaited infrastructure bill finally arrived to a similarly lukewarm reception.  As expected, it took a long time and was ultimately pared down significantly.  With markets having already done so much to prepare, there was nothing left to do but hit snooze again.  Finally, the 7yr Treasury auction wasn't nearly interesting enough for bonds to get out of bed.  Trading levels were basically flat for the entire day.

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Jobless Claims 411k vs 380k f'cast, 418 prev

  • Durable Goods 2.3 vs 2.8 f'cast.
    (previous reading revised to -0.8 from -1.3)

  • Core Cap-Ex -0.1 vs 0.6 f'cast
    (previous reading revised to 2.7 prev from 2.2)

  • Final GDP Q1 6.4 vs 6.4 prev

Market Movement Recap
08:24 AM

A bond-friendly announcement from the Bank of England helped yields recover from modest losses in Asia.  10yr starting just barely stronger at 1.483.  MBS are unchanged.

12:04 PM

Still mostly sideways, but now slightly weaker.  No major cause and effect apart from the assumption of a slight concession heading into the 7yr Treasury auction.  10yr  is half a bp higher and UMBS 2.0 coupons are 1 tick (0.03) lower.

01:16 PM

No major reaction to 7yr auction or Infrastructure deal.  Same levels as the last update.

03:07 PM

Modest rally heading into the 2pm hour.  No overt justification for the move, but it wasn't big enough to demand one.  Also, it is mostly unwound now just after the 3pm close.  MBS are unchanged (2.0 coupons) to slightly stronger (2.5 coupons) while 10yr yields are still just barely weaker day-over-day.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.5
103-09 : +0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
1.4890 : +0.0020
Pricing as of 6/24/21 3:26PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:06PM  :  7yr Auction Was a Snoozer
8:38AM  :  Modestly Positive Reaction to AM Econ Data

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jun 24
8:30 GDP Final (%) Q1 6.4 6.4 6.4
8:30 Core CapEx (%)* May -0.1 0.6 2.2
8:30 Durable goods (%)* May 2.3 2.8 -1.3
8:30 Continued Claims (ml) w/e 3.390 3.470 3.518
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 411 380 412
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 62
Friday, Jun 25
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* May 3.4 3.1
10:00 Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Jun 2.8
10:00 Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Jun 4.0
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Jun 86.5 86.4

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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