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MBS RECAP: Strong Showing For Longer-Dated Bonds
Jun 17 2021, 4:31PM

With the Fed's dot plot in focus yesterday, the associated drama was heavily weighted toward the short end of the yield curve.  Relative to recent stability, 2yr Treasuries got destroyed while 30yr Treasuries were barely touched.  MBS lean a bit shorter in duration than 10yr benchmarks, so it's no surprise to see them underperform today.  If we let them compete with 5yr Treasuries, different story (i.e. don't read too much into "MBS underperformance" when the yield curve is making such big moves).  No data tomorrow and limited data next week.  The week after that brings another jobs report, and thus another chance to see the next big flash of volatility.  

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Jobless Claims 412k vs 359k f'cast, 375k prev

  • Philly Fed 30.7 vs 31.0 f'cast, 31.5 prev

Market Movement Recap
09:06 AM

Limited weakness at the start of the overnight session, but gentle resilience since then.  10yr yields now 3bps lower at 1.55%.  2.5 UMBS up almost an eighth.

11:47 AM

Resilience continues!  10yr now down 6.5bps at 1.516 and MBS up more than an eighth (UMBS 2.5) and nearly a quarter in UMBS 2.0 coupons.

03:25 PM

Coming off the boil just a bit with 10yr yields now down only 6.5bps on the day at 1.516.  2.0 UMBS are up 3/8ths of a point and 2.5 coupons are up a quarter of a point.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.5
103-01 : +0-09
Treasuries
10 YR
1.5090 : -0.0600
Pricing as of 6/17/21 4:31PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
4:04PM  :  Bonds Off Their Best Levels, But Still in Great Shape
12:31PM  :  Treasuries Have Now Erased Post-Fed Losses! (MBS, not so much...)
9:06AM  :  Bonds Showing Some Resilience After Fed Day Rout

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jun 17
8:30 Philly Fed Business Index * Jun 30.7 31.0 31.5
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 412 359 376
8:30 Continued Claims (ml) w/e 3.518 3.430 3.499
10:00 Leading index chg mm (%) May +1.3 1.3 1.6

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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