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MBS RECAP: Pre-Fed Paralysis Despite Some Interesting Data
Jun 15 2021, 4:10PM

Retail Sales down 1.3% and last month revised up to 0.9%?  Core Producer Prices rising 0.7% in a single month (versus 0.5% forecasts).  How about the eye-watering year-over-year Core PPI number at 4.8%?  While there was perhaps a brief reaction to the 8:30am econ data, it was small and--well, brief.  Bonds spent the entire day trading almost perfectly flat.  We're left to conclude the market has taken its proverbial seat in advance of tomorrow's Fed announcement. 

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Retail Sales -1.3 vs -0.8 f'cast, +0.9 prev

  • Core Producer Prices y/y 4.8 vs 4.8 f'cast, 4.1 prev

  • NY Fed Manufacturing 17.4 vs 23.0 f'cast, 24.3 prev

  • Builder Confidence 81 vs 83 f'cast, 83 prev

  • NY Fed manufacturing 17.4 vs 23.0 f'cast, 24.3 prev

  • Industrial Production 0.8 vs 0.6 f'cast 0.1 prev

Market Movement Recap
08:37 AM

Mostly unchanged overnight and not much impact from the data (perhaps just a tad weaker at first).  Trading levels are just a hair worse than 'unchanged.'

12:36 PM

Drifting very gently lower in UMBS 2.0s, now down 2 ticks (0.06).  10yr yields have been flat near unchanged levels.  General pre-Fed paralysis, but susceptible to afternoon illiquidity.

03:39 PM

The day remains completely silent with little hope for anything interesting to happen in the last 80 minutes.  10s are still flat and MBS are still down 2 ticks.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
100-28 : -0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
1.4940 : -0.0070
Pricing as of 6/15/21 4:10PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:36AM  :  Little-Changed After AM Econ Data

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jun 15
8:30 Core Producer Prices YY (%)* May 4.8 4.8 4.1
8:30 Producer Prices (%) May 0.8 0.6 0.6
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* May -1.3 -0.8 0.0
8:30 Core Producer Prices MM (%)* May 0.7 0.5 0.7
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Jun 17.4 23.00 24.30
9:15 Industrial Production (%) May 0.8 0.6 0.7
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Jun 81 83 83
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Apr -0.2 -0.1 0.3
Wednesday, Jun 16
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 262.1
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 2869.2
8:30 House starts mm: change (%) May -9.5
8:30 Export prices mm (%) May 0.8 0.8
8:30 Import prices mm (%) May 0.8 0.7
8:30 Housing starts number mm (ml) May 1.630 1.569
8:30 Build permits: change mm (%) May -1.3
14:00 FOMC rate decision (%)* N/A 0.125 0.125

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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